Game 4 - NCAA Tournament - UConn vs USC | Page 2 | The Boneyard

Game 4 - NCAA Tournament - UConn vs USC

When Vegas posted the opening point spread for this game, I was shocked that UCONN was favored by 13 points. But I figured that it would drop down once the wagering began.
Instead, the spread has increased to 14.5! That is a lot of points!!
Bettors are confident that the Huskies will dominate tonight.
 
Sarah was playing in her first regional finals ever so I’m going to chalk her hesitancy and nervousness to the lack of prior experience. She’s a quick learner, so I fully expect that we will not see any of that hesitancy tonight.
I would be shocked if Sara showed the hesitancy she showed against OU tonight..On the same token I can't see Irafen having 2 bad games in a row..there's a reason she's projected to be the 2nd player picked in the draft right after Paige
The 3 freshmen for USC are really good..Smith is a star now and you can't leave Howel open or she'll knock down a 3
 
Absolutely disagree here. Kiki carried Stanford with 41 points against Iowa State in last year’s tournament. She’s a formidable force that is sometimes overshadowed by JuJu but she is battle tested. This is advantage USC.
Agree. Experience and proven performance in a past tournament gives KiKi the advantage here. I don't doubt Sarah, but in this excersise, its the appropriate call.
 
Sarah had 22 points, 13 rebounds, 5 assists, and 4 steals (only 2 fouls) when UConn played USC with Juju 3 months ago. I don’t think she’ll be intimidated

Azzi played 8:25 in that game and didn’t score

Kiki is #44

IMG_3766.jpeg
 
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Kind of dumb to have this game on so late at night. Yesterday was so nice having games at the reasonable hours of 1 and 3 in the afternoon. They could have easily had today's games yesterday right after those at 5 and 7, or 6 and 8.
It starts at 6PM Pacific time., which is prime time for ESPN. That is why.
 
With a victory tonight, UCONN would have by far, the toughest travel schedule.
*They play tonight in Spokane & fly cross country all day to Tampa on Tuesday to play on Friday.
*TCU/Texas also play tonight, but in Birmingham. The winner has a short flight to Tampa.
*UCLA played in Spokane Sunday. They get an extra travel day.
*SC played Sunday in Birmingham. They have an extra day with the shortest travel.
This is another reason that Geno despises the two region format:
 
Kind of dumb to have this game on so late at night. Yesterday was so nice having games at the reasonable hours of 1 and 3 in the afternoon. They could have easily had today's games yesterday right after those at 5 and 7, or 6 and 8.
Beyond the late start is the scheduling issue and Super-Regional setup that Geno, Coach Mulkey & Coach Schaefer have all complained about. Whichever team wins tonight needs to travel all day tomorrow, 2800 miles from Spokane to Tampa across 4 time zones. That team then has basically Wednesday & Thursday to prepare for a national semifinal on Friday.

Once they get to Tampa, they will face a UCLA team that has a day and a half advantage in preparation time along with only needing to cover 2 time zones from Birmingham to Tampa. It is an incredibly unfair scenario set up by the NCAA brass in a concession to the scheduling preferences of ESPN.
 
Sarah was 4 for 13 and fouled out of her last game. Yes, she had 10 rebounds but she didn’t have an optimal game. I never said that Sarah’s not a great player, because I believe that she is. I just think that Kiki’s experience gives her an advantage over a freshman. It’s just an opinion, but if you think it’s silly, well, your welcome to your opinion as well.

FWIW, KState has 6-7 Ayoka Lee at center and that would be a challenge to cause anyone a rough night.
Sarah had a tough assignment, a learning experience, never mind being a freshman. Beers is big, experienced and a true post. Kiki is not a true post, smaller, and plays somewhat like Ice, only better. Sarah is roughly same size (albeit an inch shorter) and should be much more comfortable if she has to play one up.
 
I thought going into the bracket that USC had no shot at beating UConn for a second time this season. After losing Juju I think the odds actually increased for USC for two reason. First they are playing much better team basketball without Juju which means you have to guard more people. Secondly a lot of the players who are actually very good have been able to come out of the shadows since the injury and show why they were so highly regarded recruits.

Now in the end the margin in this game will come down to how well UConn can take the USC guards out of the game and can Kiki carry the entire team against UConn. I really don't think that will be possible so in the end I expect UConn to win and in the end I think it will be comfortable margin.
 
With a victory tonight, UCONN would have by far, the toughest travel schedule.
*They play tonight in Spokane & fly cross country all day to Tampa on Tuesday to play on Friday.
*TCU/Texas also play tonight, but in Birmingham. The winner has a short flight to Tampa.
*UCLA played in Spokane Sunday. They get an extra travel day.
*SC played Sunday in Birmingham. They have an extra day with the shortest travel.
This is another reason that Geno despises the two region format:

And contrast that with the Men's where the final 2 spots were decided yesterday and they play on Saturday.:mad:
 
I admire all of you so much for your commentary. I'm too lazy or talentless to pull it off. I know the defense will always be there but if everyone but Paige and Ash are cold again it could be a really challenging game. If everyone is cooking it could be a 30 point game.
 
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I was just looking at the minutes distribution from the OU game, and a few things stand out.
  • Sarah Azzi and Paige play a lot, of course. 35+ mins for Azzi and Paige, 30 for Sarah.
  • Jana and Ice played 12 mins each, for a combined 24. I hope to see this against USC as well. Geno needs them to play this much to protect Sarah from foul trouble.
  • The littles: Ash played 28 mins, Kaitlyn played 27, KK played 19. And this was against a team with big guards. Ash's growing importance in the post-season is easy to see, and Geno has commented on this.
This group of 8 is Geno's rotation now. This is the group he thinks has the best shot to carry Paige to an NC. Maybe Aubrey can make a contribution, too. But this is the unit he's been building all season along with Paige's help. There are no illusions about this group. We've all seen what they can do and it has been more than enough to get them this far.

Also, I suspect more performances like the one against OU will be needed from Paige. She has to do the heavy lifting from now on, and I think she knows it. Azzi and Sarah can carry some of the burden, but in the end this is Paige's team to lead. She's better rested than last season. Let's hope it's enough... for all our sakes.
 
I was just looking at the minutes distribution from the OU game, and a few things stand out.
  • Sarah Azzi and Paige play a lot, of course. 35+ mins for Azzi and Paige, 30 for Sarah.
  • Jana and Ice played 12 mins each, for a combined 24. I hope to see this against USC as well. Geno needs them to play this much to protect Sarah from foul trouble.
  • The littles: Ash played 28 mins, Kaitlyn played 27, KK played 19. And this was against a team with big guards. Ash's growing importance in the post-season is easy to see, and Geno has commented on this.
This group of 8 is Geno's rotation now. This is the group he thinks has the best shot to carry Paige to an NC. Maybe Aubrey can make a contribution, too. But this is the unit he's been building all season along with Paige's help. There are no illusions about this group. We've all seen what they can do and it has been more than enough to get them this far.

Also, I suspect more performances like the one against OU will be needed from Paige. She has to do the heavy lifting from now on, and I think she knows it. Azzi and Sarah can carry some of the burden, but in the end this is Paige's team to lead. She's better rested than last season. Let's hope it's enough... for all our sakes.
I'd add she's also in better physical condition with the regimen she has in place now. Paige has made significant strides in taking care of her body as noted by the announcers which is key as well.
 
Other than getting into foul trouble and eventually fouling out
And if Dee Kantner, Angelica Suffren and Maggie Tieman had called the same type of fouls on Beers she would have fouled out by mid 3rd quarter. Heck they missed the most obvious foul of the game when Beers fouled Paige on her first 3 pointer of the game.
 
With a victory tonight, UCONN would have by far, the toughest travel schedule.
*They play tonight in Spokane & fly cross country all day to Tampa on Tuesday to play on Friday.
*TCU/Texas also play tonight, but in Birmingham. The winner has a short flight to Tampa.
*UCLA played in Spokane Sunday. They get an extra travel day.
*SC played Sunday in Birmingham. They have an extra day with the shortest travel.
This is another reason that Geno despises the two region format:
They could at least make the two-region format work better. Like, oh, say have the final BETWEEN the two semi locations? It's not like there are that many good locations (although I can come up with 10 without looking at a map) between Birmingham and Spokane, and all of them would be closer to one than the other, but not 2000 miles closer.

It's not often that I'm surprised by how thoughtless the NCAA is, but this time I am. This one brings to mind the campaign slogan of Click and Clack when they ran for president: Unencumbered by the Thought Process.
 
I'd add she's also in better physical condition with the regimen she has in place now. Paige has made significant strides in taking care of her body as noted by the announcers which is key as well.
Paige’s level of conditioning is extraordinary. During the OK game, Rebecca commented that at times Paige has Kaitlyn, KK and others bring the ball up and initiate the offensive set while she catches her breath. In Paige’s case, that’s a couple deep breaths and then it’s back to Game On!
 
I expect USC to defend Paige more effectively than Oklahoma did. So Fudd and Strong have got to put up more than their 21 points total in Okla. game. And I really wish KK and Chen would penetrate way more often; make layups or get fouled. Their offensive production is abysmal. Combined they attempt less than 10 shots per game. Ok, I guess it's a bit late for any change in that now.
 
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Kind of dumb to have this game on so late at night. Yesterday was so nice having games at the reasonable hours of 1 and 3 in the afternoon. They could have easily had today's games yesterday right after those at 5 and 7, or 6 and 8.
Yesterday? Have them play the two most important games of the year without a day to rest because you can’t take a pregame nap? Seriously?
 
This is how I see the game too. In particular the question of motivation is key here. In the immediate aftermath of the injury, Kiki and especially the freshmen played way over their heads. I think the freshmen were riding a typical wave of emotion in such situations. How long will that last?

By contrast, UConn’s sophomores juniors and a senior have a much more substantial motivation: carrying their BFF as far as they can in her final run at an NC. She’s been an incredible teammate and friend to all of them. She’s taught them, led them, inspired them, played with them for 2 or 3 years or longer. They will not let her down.

Also, the chief contribution Paige needs from Jana and Ice, besides rebounds and solid defense, is setting screens. This they both know how to do very well.
My favorite part Bone Dog.

“By contrast, UConn’s sophomores juniors and a senior have a much more substantial motivation: carrying their BFF as far as they can in her final run at an NC. She’s been an incredible teammate and friend to all of them. She’s taught them, led them, inspired them, played with them for 2 or 3 years or longer. They will not let her down.”
 
The emotional adrenaline that results from overcoming a teammate's injury will only last so long (1997, Shea, loss in E8). This pressure of trying to compensate for a missing teammate is exacerbated with the lack of experience in these high pressure games. In addition, coaches are now trying to balance the reality of what has happened over last week, with one of the most difficult games to play.

Upon saying all that .... weeeee'rrrrreeee dddddooooooommmmmmed.
Geno and Lindsay Gottlieb are good friends. He has mentored her since she was in high school. After JuJu's injury, Coach Auriemma called her to offer advice on how to get her team through the emotional turmoil that follows such a loss. He specifically brought up the loss of Shea in 1997, saying that the players went into a depression. He learned from that, and offered his experience to help her. I fully expect UConn to win, but I don't think that it will be because the USC players ran out of "emotional addrenaline." These are well-coached blue-chip ballers. I just think the Huskies are better, and we have Paige and they don't.
 
Absolutely disagree here. Kiki carried Stanford with 41 points against Iowa State in last year’s tournament. She’s a formidable force that is sometimes overshadowed by JuJu but she is battle tested. This is advantage USC.
Not an advantage if UConn starts fast, as Iriafen will try to win it on her own. KK & Ash will then up the speed and peskiness on the guard "line change." The U$C wheels will "fall off" in the 4th qtr, which is where Paige elevates her game to the NPOY^2 ZONE.

Kiki was an average sweet sixteen player on Saturday. Paige was a WNBA Finals MOP in the earlier game, and was playing HORSE off of "hammer" screens by the UConn bigs...

I like the UConn Husky chances in earning their spot in the Final Four, by winning the play in front of them all game long.

Go Huskies!!!
 

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