Game 4 - NCAA Tournament - UConn vs USC | The Boneyard

Game 4 - NCAA Tournament - UConn vs USC

cferraro04

cferraro04

Sensei
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GENERAL COMMENTS:

The Elite Game is often heralded as the most difficult game in the NCAA tournament (at least that's what Geno has said more than once). It is the game that gains a team entrance to the Final Four, so it carries with it its kind of pressure. UConn and USC have been here before, but maybe not many of the players from this year's version of each squad. But each team has a bit of the Final Four in their DNA...UConn, in particular. Both teams are hungry. UConn is chasing the elusive 12th Championship and feeling slightly pressured because it is Paige's last year. USC because they want to win for Juju.

I am a little disappointed in that I believed that if Juju was healthy and playing, UConn would have had an excellent chance to avenge their 2 point regular season loss to USC. Now, without Juju, the victory will be somewhat bittersweet. However, this time of the year is about survival and advancement, and UConn certainly has had its share of player injuries, causing them to play not with full strength. In that sense, it is good for UConn to have the proverbial shoe on the other foot, so to speak.

USC without Juju presents a different look. USC has had precious little time to figure out how to play at a high level without their All-American star. Kiki Irafen, and the freshmen (Avery Howell, Kennedy Smith, Kayleigh Heckel) have done a great job stepping up however, UConn will present a difficult challenge for them. UConn's defense will be key...If UConn figures out how to limit Kiki, Kennedy and Avery which they are perfectly capable of doing then the question for USC becomes where will they get their offense from. USC with Juju averaged 81.1 points per game, and Juju accounted for 24 of those points.

At the end of the day, for USC to win, they have to keep UConn in the sixties, and they have to play in the high 60s to 70s. UConn's defense is going to make that a difficult task. Teams are now aware that Paige has stepped it up offensively. Her 40-point outing against Oklahoma made sure of that. If they try to double down on Paige, and Paige can pass it off to Azzi, Ashlynn, and Sarah, we could see them having a great offensive night. UConn has a lot of weapons. It just isn't all about Paige.

PLAYER ANALYSIS:

Jana El-Alfy, 6'5" R-Freshman - Center vs Rayah Marshall, 6'4" Senior - Center/Forward - Rayah is averaging 7.5 points, 8.2 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.2 steals, and 2.2 blocks per game. Rayah is a solid player who is important to USC's defense. Rayah plays about 25 minutes a game and splits her time with Vivian Iwachakwu, 6'3" (7 minutes, 2.4 points, 1.6 rebounds per game) and Clarice Akunwafo, 6'6" (10 minutes, 1.2 points, 2.5 rebounds per game). Jana averages 5.2 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.0 assists, .5 steals, and .6 blocks per game. Jana plays 16.1 minutes per game and splits her time with Ice Brady, 6'3" (15.9 minutes, 3.1 points, 1.8 assists, .6 steals, and .4 blocks). The other 10 minutes may be taken by Aubrey if she is healthy, or Geno will go small ball and move Sarah over to the center position. Whatever the scenario is for the post position (5)...I don't think UConn has enough to counter Rayah's impact on the game. ADVANTAGE - USC

Sarah Strong, 6'2" Freshman - Forward vs Kiki Irafen, 6'3" Graduate - Forward - Kiki has been put into the position that this is now her team. She has to pick up the slack for Juju in providing the leadership that the team needs. She alone cannot make up for Juju's 24 points and all the other things that she did to impact a game. Kiki averages 18.2 points, 8.4 rebounds 1.9 assists, 1 steal and .6 blocks per game. Sarah has averaged 15.9 points, 8.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 2.4 steals, and 1.7 blocks per game. Sarah also adds 1.32 three-pointers per game. Kiki will have to work extremely hard to navigate through UConn's defense.
SLIGHT ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers, 6'0" R-Senior - Guard vs Kennedy Smith, 6'1" Freshman - Guard - Kennedy averages 9.6 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 2.2 steals, and 1.37 three-pointers per game. Paige is averaging 19.8 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 2.1 steals, and 1.89 three-pointers per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Azzi Fudd, 5'11" Graduate - Guard vs Avery Howell, 6'0" Freshman - Guard - Averay averages 7.4 points, 2.9 rebounds, .9 assists, .8 steals, and 1.68 three-pointers per game. Azzi has averaged 13.3 points, 2.0 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.3 steals, and 2.35 three-pointers per game. UConn lost the regular season matchup with USC by 2 points without Azzi playing in the game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Kaitlyn Chen, 5'9" Graduate - Guard vs Talia Van Oelhofffen - Graduate - Guard - Talia averages 5.8 points, 2.5 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.3 steals, and 1 three-pointer per game. Kaitlyn averages 6.9 points, 1.8 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.2 steals, and .78 three-pointers per game. This should be a good matchup to watch. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

BENCH:

UConn will bring 28.6 points, 14.7 rebounds, 7.9 assists, 4.5 steals, and 2.5 three-pointers off the bench. USC will bring 14.7 points, 8.1 rebounds, 5 assists, 3.7 steals, and .86 three-pointers off the bench. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES:

UConn is at full strength; USC is down an All-American star. UConn has too much fire-power, too much talent. Offense clicks along at 81.7 points per game, while USC is down 24 points from their average of 81.1 points per game. UCONN has Paige Bueckers, and USC doesn't.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING:

Geno and his coaching staff almost pulled off the win during the regular season back in December without Azzi Fudd (8 minutes, 0 points), Aubrey Griffin, or Caroline Ducharme. Geno's coaching staff will figure out how to exploit the absence of Juju, and they will get the job done. UConn will be going to Tampa, Florida, and will be attending its 24th Final Four. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:

UCONN - 84
USC - 65
MOV - 19
 
I might as well keep it going. Nobody has a defense as good as Uconn's. So far in the Tournament, nobody has scored as many points as Uconn. Uconn's MOV is the highest. Uconn has 4 legitimate shooter on the team capable of 20 points a game.; Lastly, Uconn has Ashlynn Shade, KK Arnold and Kaitlin Chen to HOUND and UPSET, So Cals game plans. That is good enough to win the game. GO HUSKIES!!!!!!
 
Next 12 said:
I might as well keep it going. Nobody has a defense as good as Uconn's. So far in the Tournament, nobody has scored as many points as Uconn. Uconn's MOV is the highest. Uconn has 4 legitimate shooter on the team capable of 20 points a game.; Lastly, Uconn has Ashlynn Shade, KK Arnold and Kaitlin Chen to HOUND and UPSET, So Cals game plans. That is good enough to win the game. GO HUSKIES!!!!!!
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Duke's was...gotta give them credit....their offense was another story though.
 
Excellent analysis, Sensei! Thank you again.

What I mainly see is less a matter of advantages and disadvantages but rather tradeoffs. K St contained Kiki and Rayah pretty well but got beat by the freshmen to the tune of almost 50 points. It was a natural choice for them to make given the presence of Ayoka in the post. This was their strength.

But the post is not UConn’s strength. It’s the guards and especially the small lineup. I think we can contain USC’s freshmen, but it may mean Kiki and Rayah will score more. Above all, Sarah must not get in foul trouble. Jana and Ice will have to manage post defense for at least half the game and let Sarah Paige Azzi Kaitlyn KK and Ash do the heavy lifting elsewhere. Jana and Ice will be outplayed by Kiki and Rayah, but not nearly as much as Paige & Co will outplay the rest of their lineup.

USC thinks they like to run. But UConn really likes it a lot more, and are much better at it. Make the Trojans run. Force turnovers, get steals, and generally make them chase Paige Sarah and Azzi. Turn their strength in the low post into a liability.

Hold Smith Howell Heckel and Samuels to a combined 20 pts or less and it won’t matter what their posts do.

Obviously, this approach would be a lot easier if Sarah and Azzi have a hot shooting night. But even without this, UConn can still prevail merely on the strength of the defense.
 
I've found that when a good team loses their best player they play to make up for the loss by gutting it out and playing over their heads!
That being said, UConn is playing inspired BB of it's own and even with the inspiration USC cannot match UConn's level of play!
UConn wins by at least 10 points!
 
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cferraro04 said:
Sarah Strong, 6'2" Freshman - Forward vs Kiki Irafen, 6'3" Graduate - Forward - Kiki has been put into the position that this is now her team. She has to pick up the slack for Juju in providing the leadership that the team needs. She alone cannot make up for Juju's 24 points and all the other things that she did to impact a game. Kiki averages 18.2 points, 8.4 rebounds 1.9 assists, 1 steal and .6 blocks per game. Sarah has averaged 15.9 points, 8.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 2.4 steals, and 1.7 blocks per game. Sarah also adds 1.32 three-pointers per game. Kiki will have to work extremely hard to navigate through UConn's defense.
SLIGHT ADVANTAGE - UCONN
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Absolutely disagree here. Kiki carried Stanford with 41 points against Iowa State in last year’s tournament. She’s a formidable force that is sometimes overshadowed by JuJu but she is battle tested. This is advantage USC.
 
Puppy Love said:
Absolutely disagree here. Kiki carried Stanford with 41 points against Iowa State in last year’s tournament. She’s a formidable force that is sometimes overshadowed by JuJu but she is battle tested. This is advantage USC.
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I see where you're going here, but Strong has an outside game that Iriafen doesn't have. It's a toss up here for me and I can't wait to see how it plays out tonight
 
Puppy Love said:
Absolutely disagree here. Kiki carried Stanford with 41 points against Iowa State in last year’s tournament. She’s a formidable force that is sometimes overshadowed by JuJu but she is battle tested. This is advantage USC.
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Have to give credit to Kiki and rate her ver Strong an even match. That being said, if you look at the other 4 on each team, three are relatively close but we have Paige. End of discussion.
 
It is worth noting that in the game vs K-State when Kiki was designated as the “go to” player in JuJu’s absence, she had a pretty forgettable 3/13 shooting day. The players that stepped up were Marshall, TVO and the freshmen. At the same time, Sarah did a wonderful job defending Beers, who is bigger and stronger than Kiki.

I got the matchup between Kiki and Sarah as even, unless Sarah starts dropping shots from the arc, at which point she gets the edge.
 
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I think we win. Several thoughts:

1. No Juju means our defensive guards can hammer in on the guards. Kiki and Rayah will be dealt with by Jana and Strong. We did a decent job denying Beers any entry passes, so if we do the same thing to Kiki and Rayah, we should win.

2. We have Azzi, unlike last time. Even just having her out there forces them to pick their poison, Paige or Azzi. If Azzi is on tonight, good luck USC. Smith is their best defender with Juju out, and even she wasn't enough against Paige last time, as Paige still had 22 in the loss.

3. KK made life hell for them last time. Pair that with an even more aggressive Ash, and those freshman guards are not going to be having a fun time.

4. Their roster is inexperienced on the big stage. Ours, beside Jana and Sarah, have all been to either a chip or a Final Four game.

5. They don't have much depth. We've got Ash and KK, maybe even Aubrey, and Ice.

Motivation wise: Sure they want to win for Juju, but we want to win for Paige, somebody who's been through so much, and is a mere 3 games away from a Natty. She won't be here next season, and everyone knows it's now or never.
 
Puppy Love said:
Absolutely disagree here. Kiki carried Stanford with 41 points against Iowa State in last year’s tournament. She’s a formidable force that is sometimes overshadowed by JuJu but she is battle tested. This is advantage USC.
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Last year ? LOL She just shot 3-13 and 1-4 from the FT line against K St. She responded in the game JuJu left with injury, but with a week to think about it, couldn't get it done. The idea that she has a clear advantage over the best freshman in the country is silly.
 
oldude said:
At the same time, Sarah did a wonderful job defending Beers, who is bigger and stronger than Kiki.
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Other than getting into foul trouble and eventually fouling out
 
yhun89 said:
I think we win. Several thoughts:

1. No Juju means our defensive guards can hammer in on the guards. Kiki and Rayah will be dealt with by Jana and Strong. We did a decent job denying Beers any entry passes, so if we do the same thing to Kiki and Rayah, we should win.

2. We have Azzi, unlike last time. Even just having her out there forces them to pick their poison, Paige or Azzi. If Azzi is on tonight, good luck USC. Smith is their best defender with Juju out, and even she wasn't enough against Paige last time, as Paige still had 22 in the loss.

3. KK made life hell for them last time. Pair that with an even more aggressive Ash, and those freshman guards are not going to be having a fun time.

4. Their roster is inexperienced on the big stage. Ours, beside Jana and Sarah, have all been to either a chip or a Final Four game.

5. They don't have much depth. We've got Ash and KK, maybe even Aubrey, and Ice.

Motivation wise: Sure they want to win for Juju, but we want to win for Paige, somebody who's been through so much, and is a mere 3 games away from a Natty. She won't be here next season, and everyone knows it's now or never.
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This is how I see the game too. In particular the question of motivation is key here. In the immediate aftermath of the injury, Kiki and especially the freshmen played way over their heads. I think the freshmen were riding a typical wave of emotion in such situations. How long will that last?

By contrast, UConn’s sophomores juniors and a senior have a much more substantial motivation: carrying their BFF as far as they can in her final run at an NC. She’s been an incredible teammate and friend to all of them. She’s taught them, led them, inspired them, played with them for 2 or 3 years or longer. They will not let her down.

Also, the chief contribution Paige needs from Jana and Ice, besides rebounds and solid defense, is setting screens. This they both know how to do very well.
 
I give a slight edge to Kiki over Sarah. Kiki's a senior with a lot more experience than Sarah. Sarah was hesitant in the OU game in a way we'd never seen her before.
 
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I have noted all the Sarah doubters here thinking that she won't be able to hang with Kiki Irafen. I can see how many of you feel; however, the UConn coaching staff is thorough in their evaluations and opposition reviews. They will give Sarah clear instructions on what she needs to do. Sarah is a conscientious individual who takes her responsibilities very seriously and has the talent to do the job. Kiki has had some great games however in this case it is anecdotal as Kiki has to face a UConn defense that will be focused on her now that Juju is a "DNP". UConn's defense, in my opinion, has been the best in the NCAAs so far Strong will get help with regards to Kiki. Of course, any and all plans get scrapped if Strong gets into foul trouble early or vice-a-versa if Kiki gets into early foul trouble.
 
Bone Dog said:
This is how I see the game too. In particular the question of motivation is key here. In the immediate aftermath of the injury, Kiki and especially the freshmen played way over their heads. I think the freshmen were riding a typical wave of emotion in such situations. How long will that last?

By contrast, UConn’s sophomores juniors and a senior have a much more substantial motivation: carrying their BFF as far as they can in her final run at an NC. She’s been an incredible teammate and friend to all of them. She’s taught them, led them, inspired them, played with them for 2 or 3 years or longer. They will not let her down.

Also, the chief contribution Paige needs from Jana and Ice, besides rebounds and solid defense, is setting screens. This they both know how to do very well.
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The emotional adrenaline that results from overcoming a teammate's injury will only last so long (1997, Shea, loss in E8). This pressure of trying to compensate for a missing teammate is exacerbated with the lack of experience in these high pressure games. In addition, coaches are now trying to balance the reality of what has happened over last week, with one of the most difficult games to play.

Upon saying all that .... weeeee'rrrrreeee dddddooooooommmmmmed.
 
DRBackup said:
Last year ? LOL She just shot 3-13 and 1-4 from the FT line against K St. She responded in the game JuJu left with injury, but with a week to think about it, couldn't get it done. The idea that she has a clear advantage over the best freshman in the country is silly.
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Sarah was 4 for 13 and fouled out of her last game. Yes, she had 10 rebounds but she didn’t have an optimal game. I never said that Sarah’s not a great player, because I believe that she is. I just think that Kiki’s experience gives her an advantage over a freshman. It’s just an opinion, but if you think it’s silly, well, your welcome to your opinion as well.

FWIW, KState has 6-7 Ayoka Lee at center and that would be a challenge to cause anyone a rough night.
 
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I would love to see Sarah play down low more. Let Jana set the picks up high. Sarah is better scoring option down low and is a fierce rebounder. When Ice spells Jana, i hope she isn’t hesitant shooting from up high- just let it rip. Azzi is ready to explode this game. Ash is ready to rumble too, and i am salivating thinking of how KK is going to put handcuffs on USC point guard and disrupt their ball movement.
 
This is going to be a tough game
USC has plenty of talent and is on a mission
With a very good coach
The spread is non-sensical

One point (OT)
I was down on Jana for not scoring (and hands of stone)
But then Paige complimented her for the screens
I went back and took a look and Paige was right and I was wrong...Really effective screens set up the mid-range...time after time...and completely legit...no fouls.

Apologies, Jana
 
Henry said:
I give a slight edge to Kiki over Sarah. Kiki's a senior with a lot more experience than Sarah. Sarah was hesitant in the OU game in a way we'd never seen her before.
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Sarah was playing in her first regional finals ever so I’m going to chalk her hesitancy and nervousness to the lack of prior experience. She’s a quick learner, so I fully expect that we will not see any of that hesitancy tonight.
 
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msf22b said:
This is going to be a tough game
USC has plenty of talent and is on a mission
With a very good coach
The spread is non-sensical

One point (OT)
I was down on Jana for not scoring (and hands of stone)
But then Paige complimented her for the screens
I went back and took a look and Paige was right and I was wrong...Really effective screens set up the mid-range...time after time...and completely legit...no fouls.

Apologies, Jana
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UConn's screening is a very good point. You can bet USC will be studying that. OTOH, as much as I like Gottlieb, I question whether she will or even can adequately prepare her (young) team for it. Oklahoma doesn't have as much talent as USC, but they're a mature and well-coached team, and they got caught up by screens a LOT in the second half. There was one out of bounds play where Ashlynn got about a three-footer with no one near her. I watched it several times, and the screening was brilliant.
 
When Vegas posted the opening point spread for this game, I was shocked that UCONN was favored by 13 points. But I figured that it would drop down once the wagering began.
Instead, the spread has increased to 14.5! That is a lot of points!!
Bettors are confident that the Huskies will dominate tonight.
 
DemonDeac22 said:
Sarah was playing in her first regional finals ever so I’m going to chalk her hesitancy and nervousness to the lack of prior experience. She’s a quick learner, so I fully expect that we will not see any of that hesitancy tonight.
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I would be shocked if Sara showed the hesitancy she showed against OU tonight..On the same token I can't see Irafen having 2 bad games in a row..there's a reason she's projected to be the 2nd player picked in the draft right after Paige
The 3 freshmen for USC are really good..Smith is a star now and you can't leave Howel open or she'll knock down a 3
 
Puppy Love said:
Absolutely disagree here. Kiki carried Stanford with 41 points against Iowa State in last year’s tournament. She’s a formidable force that is sometimes overshadowed by JuJu but she is battle tested. This is advantage USC.
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Agree. Experience and proven performance in a past tournament gives KiKi the advantage here. I don't doubt Sarah, but in this excersise, its the appropriate call.
 
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