Game 4 - NCAA Tournament - UConn vs USC | Page 3 | The Boneyard

Game 4 - NCAA Tournament - UConn vs USC

oldude said:
Sarah played 30 minutes and fouled out with under 3 minutes to play with UConn up by 29 points. Beers was 3/11 shooting. Sarah outscored and outrebounded her during the game. Just sayin…….
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I don't believe that the post you responded to was anti-Sarah but a comment that both she and Kiki have had numerous great games and a few average ones. Basically just a suggestion that we shouldn't cherry pick 1-2 outstanding or less than normal performances and use them to project tonight's outcome. In any case, I will repost a comment I made earlier. While I could justify Kiki/Sarah, as well as UConn/USC guards all doing well, we have Paige and they don't
 
Dugway said:
It's what #5 has to contend with ... we should not have lost to Tennessee. :(
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Lost to a ranked team on the road by 4 points. Explain to me then why SC was still a #1 seed after getting creamed at home by UConn. SC should have been the first #2 seed and not UConn if your using that logic.
 
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Cuz that is what the 'Committee' said. It is what it is. We shouldn't have lost to Tennessee. :(
 
And yet with all of the arguments in the World posted upon this forum, they still do not care. They simply are not listening to the chatter on this bulletin board! :confused:

Couple things to be honest about:

1) Had we not rolled up the Red Roosters the way we did, we would not have even been a 2-Seed. We would still be the same team, same level of talent, and same potential for a National Championship. But we would have been a 3-Seed, with a more difficult run in order to face off against the Trojans.

2) Even beating Tennessee, the Committee likely would have just swapped our positions with the USC squad. With that, we still would have been at this same Spokane venue, we still would be playing against the same USC team, at the same primetime on Monday evening. Only difference would be the color of the jersey for tonight’s game.

Why? Because the Committee set it up that way! They were looking for a Paige vs JuJu pairing, and to host that game at what would be a primetime television slot.

Come on, follow the money … this is big time amateur sports. Somehow, they need to be able to pay the bills!
 
jaydee602 said:
When Vegas posted the opening point spread for this game, I was shocked that UCONN was favored by 13 points. But I figured that it would drop down once the wagering began.
Instead, the spread has increased to 14.5! That is a lot of points!!
Bettors are confident that the Huskies will dominate tonight.
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Understand how and why the spread exists. It's the bookies trying to even out the betting between the 2 teams. When the betting is roughly equal the bookies maximize their profits. Bookies don't gamble. The spread is there just so more people bet on the underdog. It doesn't mean that is the expected outcome of the game.
 
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Since people are worried about how the USC guards compare to UConn's guards, I thought a statistical comparison might help.

The USC guards are Von Oelhoffen (5'11"), Smith (6'1"), Howell (6'0"), Heckel (5'9") and Samuels (5'6"). In order of contribution, this is how they stack up:
  • The scoring comes from Smith (9.6 pts), Howell (7.4), Heckel (6.1), Von Oelhoffen (5.8), Samuels (2.4). The group averages ~30 pts/g.
  • The defense (in terms of defensive win shares) comes from Smith 2.1 DWS, Von Oelhoffen 1.9, Howell 1.5, Heckel 1.3, Samuels 1.1.
  • The total DWS is 7.9 out of 17.9
The UConn guards are Paige 6'0", Azzi, 5'11", Ash 5'10", Kaitlyn 5'9", KK 5'9"
Their scoring is as follows:
  • Paige 19.8 pts, Azzi 13.3 pts, Ash 8.2, Kaitlyn 6.9, KK 5.4. As a group, they average ~54 pts/g
  • Their defense comes from Paige 3.4 DWS, Ash 2.4, KK 2.4, Kaitlyn 2.2, Azzi 2.0.
  • The total DWS for the UConn guards is 13.4 out of 22.6 for the team.
My conclusion is that USC has a slight size advantage -- mainly Kennedy Smith, though she's a bit smaller than Payton Verhulst and Skylar Vann on OU -- and UConn has a significant advantage in offensive production from the guard spots and defensive effort. That said, Heckel is speedy and quite clever as a defender, sort of like Hidalgo.

I chose defensive win shares as the easiest way to measure total defensive effort, but points scored to measure offensive output. Offensive win shares might have made the difference between the two squads even clearer. but it seems to me that most folks here are more comfortable with a simpler stat, like points scored. UConn shares and distributes offensive and defensive responsibilities much more widely and communally, which leads to much higher total numbers on both ends.

Of course, none of this means USC can't put out an enormous effort for this one game. But this hasn't been their pattern this season.
 
cancontent said:
And contrast that with the Men's where the final 2 spots were decided yesterday and they play on Saturday.:mad:
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Skeets said:
Understand how and why the spread exists. It's the bookies trying to even out the betting between the 2 teams. When the betting is roughly equal the bookies maximize their profits. Bookies don't gamble. The spread is there just so more people bet on the underdog. It doesn't mean that is the expected outcome of the game.
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I am aware of that as a hopeless gambler.
My surprise was that so many bettors are confident that UCONN will dominate the game by double digits, it actually raised the point spread.
 
jaydee602 said:
Tonight's Referees:
  • Roy Gulbeyan
  • Maj Forsberg
  • Katie Lukanich
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Fascinating. Forsberg is a WNBA ref as well, and usually lets the teams play with no cheap stuff. Gulbeyan, however, calls a lot of touch fouls. Lukanich is midway between the two. Three refs with a lot of experience - we will see how they mesh.

Bottom line: UConn can not come out "soft".
 
The game will not start until 9:20 PM!
ESPN scheduled the two games 2 hours apart, knowing the 1st game would not end in time for a 2nd game 9PM start.
Even though the games are in two different arenas, they want interviw & studio time between each game.
 
YKCornelius said:
Fascinating. Forsberg is a WNBA ref as well, and usually lets the teams play with no cheap stuff. Gulbeyan, however, calls a lot of touch fouls. Lukanich is midway between the two. Three refs with a lot of experience - we will see how they mesh.

Bottom line: UConn can not come out "soft".
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Yeah, Gulbeyan scares me. He was a ref in last season's UCONN/ Iowa game & he blew several soft, questionable whistles.
Forsberg & Lukanich have called quite a few UCONN games this season,& they are used to the Huskies' physical style.
 
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SELF EVALUATION: (Since many disagreed with Sarah outplaying Kiki).

First, I have been consistently bad at predicting the MOV all season. I had this one at 19, and it ended up being 12.

Secondly, I had UConn's bench out playing the USC bench...uhhh, nope! USC got 5 points off the bench; we only got 2.

I correctly had Rayah out playing all of our post players. She did so in incredible fashion...Rayah had a great game. Our Achilles' heel all season has been our post players. I hope it doesn't catch up to us against 6'7" Lauren Betts and UCLA.

I was correct to a degree with regards to the Sarah Strong / Kiki Iraifen match up. I had it as a slight advantage in favor of Sarah. I was right in calling it an advantage, Sarah, but I was wrong in calling it a slight advantage. Our freshman of the year dominated Kiki. Sarah had 22 points, 17 rebounds, 4 assists, and 1 steal. Strong did a great job defensively on Kiki holding her to 10 points, 6 rebounds, 1 assist, and 1 steal. Sarah did that while only committing 1 personal foul. Sarah played like an All-American tonight.

I was also wrong about the Kaitlin Chen vs. Talia von Ohlhoffen matchup. I had this matchup as a toss-up, even/Steven. But Chen showed why she was the Ivy League player of the year last year. She had 15 points, 2 assists, and 1 steal. Talia had 10 points, 2 assists, and 1 steal. The advantage went to Kaitlin.

I was correct on the Paige vs Kennedy Smith matchup. Even though the statistics show an extremely lopsided advantage to Paige. Kennedy was impressive. Her defense on Paige was as good as we have seen all season. Paige's defense on her was better, holding her to only 7 points and 3 rebounds. Paige's three consecutive games over thirty, her passing DT for most points in an NCAA tournament, her passing Napheesa Collier to take over 3rd in the all-time Huskie scoring category... cement her at least into the discussion as one of the greatest ever to come out of UConn. Winning a naty will certainly help the argument. Of course, we will have to wait and see what kind of professional career she has.

I was also incorrect in the Azzi vs Avery matchup. I had Azzi winning that matchup. After a miserable shooting night for three quarters, Azzi managed to bring the matchup to EVEN.

This was a difficult game to predict because USC was playing for Juju, and UConn was playing to get their all-star to the final four. It was an emotional setting, pitting two very talented teams against each other. While I will always wonder if we would have won the game if Juju played...I am very happy for our team to be advancing to the final four. Now we have to face another California team from the Big 10. Go Huskies!
 
DemonDeac22 said:
Sarah was playing in her first regional finals ever so I’m going to chalk her hesitancy and nervousness to the lack of prior experience. She’s a quick learner, so I fully expect that we will not see any of that hesitancy tonight.
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No hesitation, no nervousness…just an All-American doing All-American things to propel her team into the Final Four!

Sarah is simply amazing. Watching her and the amazing Paige on the court together all season long has been an unbelievable honor and will be a lasting memory for my lifetime.
 
cferraro04 said:
SELF EVALUATION: (Since many disagreed with Sarah outplaying Kiki).

First, I have been consistently bad at predicting the MOV all season. I had this one at 19, and it ended up being 12.

Secondly, I had UConn's bench out playing the USC bench...uhhh, nope! USC got 5 points off the bench; we only got 2.

I correctly had Rayah out playing all of our post players. She did so in incredible fashion...Rayah had a great game. Our Achilles' heel all season has been our post players. I hope it doesn't catch up to us against 6'7" Lauren Betts and UCLA.

I was correct to a degree with regards to the Sarah Strong / Kiki Iraifen match up. I had it as a slight advantage in favor of Sarah. I was right in calling it an advantage, Sarah, but I was wrong in calling it a slight advantage. Our freshman of the year dominated Kiki. Sarah had 22 points, 17 rebounds, 4 assists, and 1 steal. Strong did a great job defensively on Kiki holding her to 10 points, 6 rebounds, 1 assist, and 1 steal. Sarah did that while only committing 1 personal foul. Sarah played like an All-American tonight.

I was also wrong about the Kaitlin Chen vs. Talia von Ohlhoffen matchup. I had this matchup as a toss-up, even/Steven. But Chen showed why she was the Ivy League player of the year last year. She had 15 points, 2 assists, and 1 steal. Talia had 10 points, 2 assists, and 1 steal. The advantage went to Kaitlin.

I was correct on the Paige vs Kennedy Smith matchup. Even though the statistics show an extremely lopsided advantage to Paige. Kennedy was impressive. Her defense on Paige was as good as we have seen all season. Paige's defense on her was better, holding her to only 7 points and 3 rebounds. Paige's three consecutive games over thirty, her passing DT for most points in an NCAA tournament, her passing Napheesa Collier to take over 3rd in the all-time Huskie scoring category... cement her at least into the discussion as one of the greatest ever to come out of UConn. Winning a naty will certainly help the argument. Of course, we will have to wait and see what kind of professional career she has.

I was also incorrect in the Azzi vs Avery matchup. I had Azzi winning that matchup. After a miserable shooting night for three quarters, Azzi managed to bring the matchup to EVEN.

This was a difficult game to predict because USC was playing for Juju, and UConn was playing to get their all-star to the final four. It was an emotional setting, pitting two very talented teams against each other. While I will always wonder if we would have won the game if Juju played...I am very happy for our team to be advancing to the final four. Now we have to face another California team from the Big 10. Go Huskies!
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ADVANTAGE: Sensei.
 
Sarah vs USC

Game 1: 22 points, 13 rebounds, 5 assists, 4 steals, 2 fouls, 37 minutes
Game 2: 22 points, 17 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steals, 1 foul, 40 minutes

Average: 22 points, 15 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 2.5 steals, 1.5 fouls, 38.5 minutes
:cool:
 
jaydee602 said:
I am aware of that as a hopeless gambler.
My surprise was that so many bettors are confident that UCONN will dominate the game by double digits, it actually raised the point spread.
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Wasn't the final betting spread 14.5? (It was on ESPN) What was the final margin? 14!
 
DennieEddy said:
Wasn't the final betting spread 14.5? (It was on ESPN) What was the final margin? 14!
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Yep! I placed my wager on Saturday, so I gave 13 points. Sarah's "meaningless" free throws at the end covered the spread for me, but those who gave 14.5 lost the wager.
 
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jaydee602 said:
Yep! I placed my wager on Saturday, so I gave 13 points. Sarah's "meaningless" free throws at the end covered the spread for me, but those who gave 14.5 lost the wager.
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And I think the final over/under was 138.5, which connected with the 14.5 spread, makes the ESPN estimated betting of 77-62...not far from 78-64.
 
UConn will win the title. I've not felt this confident about a Huskies NC in several years. They are healthy, Paige is the best player in the tournament and Strong no worse than 3rd. They have Geno. It's theirs for the taking.
 
It is so unfair that the team traveling cross country plays the latest Elite Eight game.
UCONN is getting ready for a 6 hour flight to Tampa. Add the three hour time difference & they won't get there until after 6PM.
Meanwhile, the other three teams are probably already in Tampa.
UCLA had the same flight, but they played Sunday.
South Carolina played Sunday in Birmingham.
Texas played last night, but they only had a 90 minute flight to Tampa.
No teams should have travel advantages for the Final Four!
 
jaydee602 said:
The game will not start until 9:20 PM!
ESPN scheduled the two games 2 hours apart, knowing the 1st game would not end in time for a 2nd game 9PM start.
Even though the games are in two different arenas, they want interviw & studio time between each game.
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The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
 
fomalhaut said:
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
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The game probably received record ratings. So ESPN thinks they got it right.
They won't admit that there were so many viewers DESPITE their incompetence.
 
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