Game 4 - NCAA Tournament - UConn vs USC

[The CDR-Ret]

Last year ? LOL She just shot 3-13 and 1-4 from the FT line against K St. She responded in the game JuJu left with injury, but with a week to think about it, couldn't get it done. The idea that she has a clear advantage over the best freshman in the country is silly.

Plus the BEST Freshman who was overlooked by the FPOY committee. I expect great things from her tonight.

Also, no coaching core is better than Geno, CD & Company on two day turnarounds to get to the Final Four!!!

Go Huskies!!!

 

[Geesworld]

I pray the officials do not allow USC to grab and clutch Paige and Azzi. Blow the whistle!

Refs aside, the post players (Jana, Ice) 6-8 pts, 12-15 rbs combined and we win this game by 10pts

 

[Huskee11]

Paige always shows up for the Elite Eight game.

28 against Baylor, 27 against NC State, 28 against USC.

All down to the wire gut check wins.

 

[The CDR-Ret]

UConn's screening is a very good point. You can bet USC will be studying that. OTOH, as much as I like Gottlieb, I question whether she will or even can adequately prepare her (young) team for it. Oklahoma doesn't have as much talent as USC, but they're a mature and well-coached team, and they got caught up by screens a LOT in the second half. There was one out of bounds play where Ashlynn got about a three-footer with no one near her. I watched it several times, and the screening was brilliant.

Studying and affecting Paige's focus and efficiency are two very different things. Slamming into Jana, Ice, or Sarah takes a little (or a lot) out of the speed of the defense over the course of a game.

It is more like hitting a walk-in safe door than a screen (door).

I like the UConn women in this one (in case you have not read any of my previous posts)!!!

Go Huskies!!!

 

[hoopsfan22]

Yesterday? Have them play the two most important games of the year without a day to rest because you can’t take a pregame nap? Seriously?

You would need to change the S16 schedule obviously so there's at least one off day between the eight S16 and four E8 games.

 

[cancontent]

Yesterday? Have them play the two most important games of the year without a day to rest because you can’t take a pregame nap? Seriously?

Some of us work full time jobs you know. And naps after 6 pm could wreck havoc on sleeping schedules.

 

[DennieEddy]

First team to 70 points wins

Like the first player to add the "E" to HORS?

 

[ERWUC65]

I pray the officials do not allow USC to grab and clutch Paige and Azzi. Blow the whistle!

Refs aside, the post players (Jana, Ice) 6-8 pts, 12-15 rbs combined and we win this game by 10pts

USC has always been more of a finesse team and now they are relying on 3 freshman who probably don't even know what grab and hold means.

 

[The CDR-Ret]

Beyond the late start is the scheduling issue and Super-Regional setup that Geno, Coach Mulkey & Coach Schaefer have all complained about. Whichever team wins tonight needs to travel all day tomorrow, 2800 miles from Spokane to Tampa across 4 time zones. That team then has basically Wednesday & Thursday to prepare for a national semifinal on Friday.

Once they get to Tampa, they will face a UCLA team that has a day and a half advantage in preparation time along with only needing to cover 2 time zones from Birmingham to Tampa. It is an incredibly unfair scenario set up by the NCAA brass in a concession to the scheduling preferences of ESPN.

Not a complaint, but judging the validity of putting UConn as #2 in U$C's Spokane #4 is on the NCAA bracketing committee, and I thought it was an excellent path to the FF in the making. Not an easy path, but Paige & the women have made it look so. They [the UConn women] will not be "taking their foot off of the accelerator" tonight on this journey!

However, unanswered is why the women go last in the Sweet Sixteen/Elite Eight, but are first in the FF & NC. It is a magnified disadvantage for the #3 & #4 teams. At least, the #1 & #4 should be on the same (first) day, and the #2 & #3 on the second day.

Geno, CD & company hold the mental advantage (and instill it in the team) as they have seen multiple ways the NCAA has put roadblocks in their way, and use that as a backdrop to the "any team, any where, any time" motto to earn a spot in the NC game, AND they show it with an 11-1 record in the Championship game. They don't have to beat all of the #1 seeds at the same time, only the one team in front of them, one play at a time. The Freshmen and Sophomores have matured nicely since the Tennessee game, and looks like they have the post-season "jump" that UConn has had in many of the past 30+ years to earn the previous 11 NC's.

Start fast & Go Huskies!!!

 

[Dugway]

It's what #5 has to contend with ... we should not have lost to Tennessee.

 

[HopJim]

Sarah played 30 minutes and fouled out with under 3 minutes to play with UConn up by 29 points. Beers was 3/11 shooting. Sarah outscored and outrebounded her during the game. Just sayin…….

I don't believe that the post you responded to was anti-Sarah but a comment that both she and Kiki have had numerous great games and a few average ones. Basically just a suggestion that we shouldn't cherry pick 1-2 outstanding or less than normal performances and use them to project tonight's outcome. In any case, I will repost a comment I made earlier. While I could justify Kiki/Sarah, as well as UConn/USC guards all doing well, we have Paige and they don't

 

[MSGRET]

It's what #5 has to contend with ... we should not have lost to Tennessee.

Lost to a ranked team on the road by 4 points. Explain to me then why SC was still a #1 seed after getting creamed at home by UConn. SC should have been the first #2 seed and not UConn if your using that logic.

 

[Dugway]

Cuz that is what the 'Committee' said. It is what it is. We shouldn't have lost to Tennessee.

 

[MSGRET]

Cuz that is what the 'Committee' said. It is what it is. We shouldn't have lost to Tennessee.

Funny when the "Committee" states that if a tier 1 team loses to a tier 1 team on the road it's not as bad as a tier 1 team losing to a tier 1 team at home.

 

[Dugway]

And yet with all of the arguments in the World posted upon this forum, they still do not care. They simply are not listening to the chatter on this bulletin board!

Couple things to be honest about:

1) Had we not rolled up the Red Roosters the way we did, we would not have even been a 2-Seed. We would still be the same team, same level of talent, and same potential for a National Championship. But we would have been a 3-Seed, with a more difficult run in order to face off against the Trojans.

2) Even beating Tennessee, the Committee likely would have just swapped our positions with the USC squad. With that, we still would have been at this same Spokane venue, we still would be playing against the same USC team, at the same primetime on Monday evening. Only difference would be the color of the jersey for tonight’s game.

Why? Because the Committee set it up that way! They were looking for a Paige vs JuJu pairing, and to host that game at what would be a primetime television slot.

Come on, follow the money … this is big time amateur sports. Somehow, they need to be able to pay the bills!

 

[Skeets]

When Vegas posted the opening point spread for this game, I was shocked that UCONN was favored by 13 points. But I figured that it would drop down once the wagering began.
Instead, the spread has increased to 14.5! That is a lot of points!!
Bettors are confident that the Huskies will dominate tonight.

Understand how and why the spread exists. It's the bookies trying to even out the betting between the 2 teams. When the betting is roughly equal the bookies maximize their profits. Bookies don't gamble. The spread is there just so more people bet on the underdog. It doesn't mean that is the expected outcome of the game.

 

[Bone Dog]

Since people are worried about how the USC guards compare to UConn's guards, I thought a statistical comparison might help.

The USC guards are Von Oelhoffen (5'11"), Smith (6'1"), Howell (6'0"), Heckel (5'9") and Samuels (5'6"). In order of contribution, this is how they stack up:

• The scoring comes from Smith (9.6 pts), Howell (7.4), Heckel (6.1), Von Oelhoffen (5.8), Samuels (2.4). The group averages ~30 pts/g.
• The defense (in terms of defensive win shares) comes from Smith 2.1 DWS, Von Oelhoffen 1.9, Howell 1.5, Heckel 1.3, Samuels 1.1.
• The total DWS is 7.9 out of 17.9

The UConn guards are Paige 6'0", Azzi, 5'11", Ash 5'10", Kaitlyn 5'9", KK 5'9"
Their scoring is as follows:

• Paige 19.8 pts, Azzi 13.3 pts, Ash 8.2, Kaitlyn 6.9, KK 5.4. As a group, they average ~54 pts/g
• Their defense comes from Paige 3.4 DWS, Ash 2.4, KK 2.4, Kaitlyn 2.2, Azzi 2.0.
• The total DWS for the UConn guards is 13.4 out of 22.6 for the team.

My conclusion is that USC has a slight size advantage -- mainly Kennedy Smith, though she's a bit smaller than Payton Verhulst and Skylar Vann on OU -- and UConn has a significant advantage in offensive production from the guard spots and defensive effort. That said, Heckel is speedy and quite clever as a defender, sort of like Hidalgo.

I chose defensive win shares as the easiest way to measure total defensive effort, but points scored to measure offensive output. Offensive win shares might have made the difference between the two squads even clearer. but it seems to me that most folks here are more comfortable with a simpler stat, like points scored. UConn shares and distributes offensive and defensive responsibilities much more widely and communally, which leads to much higher total numbers on both ends.

Of course, none of this means USC can't put out an enormous effort for this one game. But this hasn't been their pattern this season.

 

[jaydee602]

And contrast that with the Men's where the final 2 spots were decided yesterday and they play on Saturday.

Understand how and why the spread exists. It's the bookies trying to even out the betting between the 2 teams. When the betting is roughly equal the bookies maximize their profits. Bookies don't gamble. The spread is there just so more people bet on the underdog. It doesn't mean that is the expected outcome of the game.

I am aware of that as a hopeless gambler.
My surprise was that so many bettors are confident that UCONN will dominate the game by double digits, it actually raised the point spread.

 

[jaydee602]

Tonight's Referees:

• Roy Gulbeyan
• Maj Forsberg
• Katie Lukanich

 

[YKCornelius]

Tonight's Referees:

• Roy Gulbeyan
• Maj Forsberg
• Katie Lukanich

Fascinating. Forsberg is a WNBA ref as well, and usually lets the teams play with no cheap stuff. Gulbeyan, however, calls a lot of touch fouls. Lukanich is midway between the two. Three refs with a lot of experience - we will see how they mesh.

Bottom line: UConn can not come out "soft".

 

[jaydee602]

The game will not start until 9:20 PM!
ESPN scheduled the two games 2 hours apart, knowing the 1st game would not end in time for a 2nd game 9PM start.
Even though the games are in two different arenas, they want interviw & studio time between each game.

 

[jaydee602]

Fascinating. Forsberg is a WNBA ref as well, and usually lets the teams play with no cheap stuff. Gulbeyan, however, calls a lot of touch fouls. Lukanich is midway between the two. Three refs with a lot of experience - we will see how they mesh.

Bottom line: UConn can not come out "soft".

Yeah, Gulbeyan scares me. He was a ref in last season's UCONN/ Iowa game & he blew several soft, questionable whistles.
Forsberg & Lukanich have called quite a few UCONN games this season,& they are used to the Huskies' physical style.

 

[cferraro04]

SELF EVALUATION: (Since many disagreed with Sarah outplaying Kiki).

First, I have been consistently bad at predicting the MOV all season. I had this one at 19, and it ended up being 12.

Secondly, I had UConn's bench out playing the USC bench...uhhh, nope! USC got 5 points off the bench; we only got 2.

I correctly had Rayah out playing all of our post players. She did so in incredible fashion...Rayah had a great game. Our Achilles' heel all season has been our post players. I hope it doesn't catch up to us against 6'7" Lauren Betts and UCLA.

I was correct to a degree with regards to the Sarah Strong / Kiki Iraifen match up. I had it as a slight advantage in favor of Sarah. I was right in calling it an advantage, Sarah, but I was wrong in calling it a slight advantage. Our freshman of the year dominated Kiki. Sarah had 22 points, 17 rebounds, 4 assists, and 1 steal. Strong did a great job defensively on Kiki holding her to 10 points, 6 rebounds, 1 assist, and 1 steal. Sarah did that while only committing 1 personal foul. Sarah played like an All-American tonight.

I was also wrong about the Kaitlin Chen vs. Talia von Ohlhoffen matchup. I had this matchup as a toss-up, even/Steven. But Chen showed why she was the Ivy League player of the year last year. She had 15 points, 2 assists, and 1 steal. Talia had 10 points, 2 assists, and 1 steal. The advantage went to Kaitlin.

I was correct on the Paige vs Kennedy Smith matchup. Even though the statistics show an extremely lopsided advantage to Paige. Kennedy was impressive. Her defense on Paige was as good as we have seen all season. Paige's defense on her was better, holding her to only 7 points and 3 rebounds. Paige's three consecutive games over thirty, her passing DT for most points in an NCAA tournament, her passing Napheesa Collier to take over 3rd in the all-time Huskie scoring category... cement her at least into the discussion as one of the greatest ever to come out of UConn. Winning a naty will certainly help the argument. Of course, we will have to wait and see what kind of professional career she has.

I was also incorrect in the Azzi vs Avery matchup. I had Azzi winning that matchup. After a miserable shooting night for three quarters, Azzi managed to bring the matchup to EVEN.

This was a difficult game to predict because USC was playing for Juju, and UConn was playing to get their all-star to the final four. It was an emotional setting, pitting two very talented teams against each other. While I will always wonder if we would have won the game if Juju played...I am very happy for our team to be advancing to the final four. Now we have to face another California team from the Big 10. Go Huskies!

 

[DemonDeac22]

Sarah was playing in her first regional finals ever so I’m going to chalk her hesitancy and nervousness to the lack of prior experience. She’s a quick learner, so I fully expect that we will not see any of that hesitancy tonight.

No hesitation, no nervousness…just an All-American doing All-American things to propel her team into the Final Four!

Sarah is simply amazing. Watching her and the amazing Paige on the court together all season long has been an unbelievable honor and will be a lasting memory for my lifetime.

 

[Bone Dog]

SELF EVALUATION: (Since many disagreed with Sarah outplaying Kiki).

First, I have been consistently bad at predicting the MOV all season. I had this one at 19, and it ended up being 12.

Secondly, I had UConn's bench out playing the USC bench...uhhh, nope! USC got 5 points off the bench; we only got 2.

I correctly had Rayah out playing all of our post players. She did so in incredible fashion...Rayah had a great game. Our Achilles' heel all season has been our post players. I hope it doesn't catch up to us against 6'7" Lauren Betts and UCLA.

I was correct to a degree with regards to the Sarah Strong / Kiki Iraifen match up. I had it as a slight advantage in favor of Sarah. I was right in calling it an advantage, Sarah, but I was wrong in calling it a slight advantage. Our freshman of the year dominated Kiki. Sarah had 22 points, 17 rebounds, 4 assists, and 1 steal. Strong did a great job defensively on Kiki holding her to 10 points, 6 rebounds, 1 assist, and 1 steal. Sarah did that while only committing 1 personal foul. Sarah played like an All-American tonight.

I was also wrong about the Kaitlin Chen vs. Talia von Ohlhoffen matchup. I had this matchup as a toss-up, even/Steven. But Chen showed why she was the Ivy League player of the year last year. She had 15 points, 2 assists, and 1 steal. Talia had 10 points, 2 assists, and 1 steal. The advantage went to Kaitlin.

I was correct on the Paige vs Kennedy Smith matchup. Even though the statistics show an extremely lopsided advantage to Paige. Kennedy was impressive. Her defense on Paige was as good as we have seen all season. Paige's defense on her was better, holding her to only 7 points and 3 rebounds. Paige's three consecutive games over thirty, her passing DT for most points in an NCAA tournament, her passing Napheesa Collier to take over 3rd in the all-time Huskie scoring category... cement her at least into the discussion as one of the greatest ever to come out of UConn. Winning a naty will certainly help the argument. Of course, we will have to wait and see what kind of professional career she has.

I was also incorrect in the Azzi vs Avery matchup. I had Azzi winning that matchup. After a miserable shooting night for three quarters, Azzi managed to bring the matchup to EVEN.

This was a difficult game to predict because USC was playing for Juju, and UConn was playing to get their all-star to the final four. It was an emotional setting, pitting two very talented teams against each other. While I will always wonder if we would have won the game if Juju played...I am very happy for our team to be advancing to the final four. Now we have to face another California team from the Big 10. Go Huskies!

ADVANTAGE: Sensei.