From an Outsider: UConn 2016-2017 Analysis | Page 2 | The Boneyard

From an Outsider: UConn 2016-2017 Analysis

Status
Not open for further replies.
cohenzone- - I agree with most of your post but the highlighted area in red is not accurate IMHO. Ann Strother was a very good player as the 2nd, 3rd, & 4th option especially with DT! When DT graduated an Barbara Turner and Ann were the top dogs, Ann was a "nervous nelly" and didn't like the pressure of everyone looking to her as THE STAR. Barbara Turner, loved that role and preformed quite well!
I see KLS's game as much more advanced than AS, as she's more than willing to put up big shots during crunch-time! Ann couldn't get rid of the ball fast enough when someone was needed to take THE SHOT!
Ann never developed into her potential, an never made 1st team AA even with the ability to achieve AA.

Maybe I wasn't clear. I think KLS is more assertive than Strother. I just think their skill sets are similar and not as unique as the players who were so different they were pretty much impossible to shut down even with unusual defensive attention. That would be DT, MM and BS. Tennessee had it with
Parker. I think expecting her to carry that sort of load with a relatively young surrounding cast and being a soph herself is asking a lot.
 
Maybe I wasn't clear. I think KLS is more assertive than Strother. I just think their skill sets are similar and not as unique as the players who were so different they were pretty much impossible to shut down even with unusual defensive attention. That would be DT, MM and BS. Tennessee had it with
Parker. I think expecting her to carry that sort of load with a relatively young surrounding cast and being a soph herself is asking a lot.
Agree for the sophomore year that is asking too much. Watch out by her junior year, though.
 
Cam,
I not going to threaten to slug you like some others but I think your excellent post proves that you are no “outsider”. There is very little to quibble with your or UC response but I am determined. One immeasurable nit is this notion of the roster lacking and Alpha. I don’t disagree with that notion as you intended but would suggest an alternative team dynamic which might be more powerful. The training and the mindset of the team is do your job and don’t let the other guy down. One of the lesson learned in the aftermath of the Stanford loss per Stewie was everyone needed to do their job and not stand around waiting for one person to do something. Kia, Saniya and Gabby were recipients of that lesson. Unlike @Duke lessons are actually learned @ UCONN and many are actually passed on. When roles are well defined (at UCONN always) the objective is clear (@ UCONN=NC) the need for an Alpha is diminished.

My biggest concern about the team next year is defensive cohesion. UCONN led the nation in defensive efficiency by a wide margin and I do not see a significant drop off that would result in 4-5 losses because many of the elements that comprised that defense can be replaced with this roster the notable exception being shot blocking. For example Molly and Crystal are not Moriah but they can replace some of the on ball defense that Moriah provided. Gabby is among the NCAA leaders in rebounding per minutes and Natalie finished 5 in the nation as a freshmen. Both could easily replace the rebounding of Stewie and Morgan. By the numbers: In 12 min/game Butler pulls down 4 rebounds. In 19 min/ game Gabby pulls 5.6 rebounds. Morgan pulled 5.7 and Stewie pulled 8.7. Of course there is more to defense efficiency and the more to replacing the big three but those are just two examples. UCONN was lapping the field by a significant amount these last few years. Geno works very hard to instill good habits in his players. For these players one of those habits is winning. I envision a handful close games next year. On the other side of those close games will be teams saying “Oh my God we are in a close game with UCONN. What do we do now Coach?” Coach: “Heck if I know I’ve never been here either. My guess is that UCONN will win more of those games than it loses. The higher the stakes (Final Four) the better I like UCONN's chances. I see UCONN still competing for a National Championship next year and if they are successful the MOP will be the UCONN system not any individual player.
I like all of the above words and how they are all next to each other and how they are friends with each other and make a real solid group. The words, the ones locate directly above, just glance up with your eyes. They are the ones that you typed and then that I quoted. Yup.
 
But all of the returning players were just good soldiers this past year following the lead of Moriah, Breanna, and Morgan. The only player who is returning that I think has the ability to really lead and organize this team is Kia. Maybe Dangerfield will be Renee/Jen reincarnated who arrived on campus ready to lead but that is a tall order for a freshman. Lou and Napheesa may have some of those qualities but they had a hard time not deferring this past year and have a lot of personal growth (and recovery) to deal with themselves as do Gabby and Natalie and Saniya and Courtney.
I thought there were times when Lou's court sense was Magic Johnson-like. I think, as you say, she largely deferred to other four (when she began starting, she was actually passing up better shots to give others the points), and learned pretty much to stay out of Stewie's way (always a good decision). But the kid's extraordinary improvement on defense tells me that she has the potential to be a monster offensively as well. I think she has that kinetic intelligence in which she can imagine all five players in her head simultaneously and use passes to move players to the spot they should be. I especially see her and Naphessa playing an awesome inside-outside 2 man game.
 
Specific to 2012 - the team was returning 4 starters - Maya and Lorin represented 28% of the minutes, 34% of the points, 35% of the assists, 28% of rebounds, 34% of blocks, and 35% of the steals. In terms of experience the team was losing about 50% again but in terms of starter experience it was losing only 28%

Specific to 2005 - the team was returning 3 starters - DT and Conlon represented 30% of minutes, 29% of points, 41% of assists, 18% of rebounds, 21% of blocks and 31% of steals. In terms of experience only about 40% and starting experience about 50%.
Can't help but point out that in both years the WCBB landscape was heavily shaped by a transcendent players (Parker & Griner) not wearing UCONN uniforms. The current WCBB landscape has no such player and in Geno's estimation it will not have such a player for a while.
 
Here are my thoughts and analysis of UConn's 2016-2017 season and the post-Stewart/Jefferson/Tuck era. These are just my thoughts and observations. It is quite possible that I am remembering things incorrectly or that I am not as intimately familiar with the team and the program as some/many of you (e.g., I am sure most of you watch more UConn games in person/on television/online than I do on an annual basis).

So apologies in advance...and here is my more "cautious and measured" approach to UConn and the 2016-2017 season.

I look to UConn's 2016-2017 team with the expected transition to Samuelson and Collier as akin to 2004-2005/2005-2006, when Strother (a wing, like KLS) and Turner (an undersized post with a developing perimter game).

UCMiami--God bless your soul for that Conlon comment---I called her the most under-rated player who won 3 championship (or was it 2?). A clutch player, a good to better point guard, and a super compliment to DT.
Anne Strothers--I lover her still, wonderful person--but she could not take being the go to player and "folded" in real pressure situation at times--when DT went, Anne was not up to the top player thing.
Gabby, Napheesa and KLS are experience (even in Nc's) players who without being in the shadows of the Golden 3 will emerge as top talents on their own.
I get in trouble speaking highly of Crystal Dangerfield--but to me she is everything we could have asked Santa for if we were super good children--we must have been.
I also believe UConn will be in the FINAL 4 --if Geno stays healthy with a healthy team.

Thanks again for the Conlon comment--she's a Valley Girl--Naugatuck River Valley that is!!

I shall agree with those who say good/nice analysis. On a couple of your points:
1. Charde (a 3000 plus HS scorer) without many fundamentals and a frustration to Geno on many fronts. She was a "walking fool" and spoiled many a nice basket by the "quick" first step of walking.
2. 4th or 5th go to scoring option--Naa, Katie Lou was many times the second scoring option.
When the "really big dogs are gone" (and they are) KLS, Napheesa, Nurse, Gabby and I assume later in the season, Crystal Dangerfield will fill 70 percent of the scoring void--the 30 percent shall remain a void (but who needs more than 75 points???)
3. I'll be in trouble but: I watched Crystal last year in the USA game a kid playing with College experienced players and she dished and shot like

The 2004-2005/2005-2006 teams struggled, in some respects. The 2004-2005 team had some difficulty finding a point guard. Highly touted/ranked guard Ketia Swaner started the season at the point, but would only end up starting five games all season, as UConn employed a "point guard by committee approach," with Ann Strother having to balance scoring and with some playmaking as a wing.

And that 04-05 team lacked players who really could consistently create their own shots, with the exception of Charde Houston, who, as a freshman, had her blindingly quick spin move to free her up for a short jumper or to drive to the basket and her pull up jumper from ten feet that she would take on the run with her leaping ability. UConn finished 25-8.

For 2005-2006, UConn had highly touted/regarded/ranked PG Renee Montgomery as a freshman to add speed and stability to the PG position in the starting lineup. Strother provided assists from the wing, with Mel Thomas as the starting shooting guard.

But there really was no "go to" player (i.e., someone who could create her own shot and consistently take over the game), as Strother, Turner, and Thomas all averaged between 11 and 13 points (with a solid 9 ppg each from Houston and Montgomery) and took turns being the first option/leading scorer. There was no "alpha dog," if you will pardon the expression.

Now Crystal Dangerfield is coming in that the PG position and is ranked much higher than either Swanier or Montgomery was in their respective classes (IIRC, Montgomery was a solid top 20, with some having her higher, while Swanier had a mix between top 20/30; Dangerfield comes in as a consensus top five player). And UConn still has Kia Nurse and Gabby Williams; Nurse was a solid scorer with over 100 assists and a good A/TO ratio, while Williams is an athletic marvel who contributed 9 points and 5.6 rebounds as an undersized forward and part-time starter.

That being said, UConn has to adjust to having players who were 4th, 5th, and 6th options who were able to contribute (score, rebound, garner assists, etc.) and be effective playing next to three all-time greats and legends (at both UConn and in WCBB) to becoming the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd options. Arguably, this may be a tougher adjustment than 2004-2005, as the only major loss (and it was a MAJOR loss) was Taurasi (with no disrespect intended to Maria Conlon or Morgan Valley, but they were not of the same caliber as Jefferson and Tuck). Not to mention, 2004-2005 was also an odd year because so many programs had lost great players to graduation besides UConn (e.g., Duke, Stanford, Minnesota, Kansas State, Purdue, Texas, Penn State, etc.).

I think UConn will have a "difficult" time in 2016-2017, but "difficult" is a relative term. In other words, I would not be surprised if UConn lost 4-5 games (or maybe six games) and "only" made the Elite Eight, instead of the Final Four. Remember, even the 2013 national championship team lost 4 games.

But that is the standard that Geno Auriemma and the UConn women's basketball program have set. When "difficult" means an "Elite Eight" finish instead of a national championship or making the Final Four, it demonstrates an incredible standard of excellence that is simply awesome to behold.

Again, I did not intend to be disrespectful or offend anyone with this post. Please feel free to disagree or tell me I am way off base...or point out that I forgot a key player and her contributions that should/would change my analysis.
Cam - really thoughtful and well presented. I'll add a few thoughts -
1. 2004-5 also had a very experienced and quite productive starting center returning for her 5th year (a player that had an 8 year run as a WNBA player.) Something that 2016 does not have. And with Battle (5th year (and a solid WNBA career)), Valley (Sr), and Strother, Turner, Crockett, and Wolff as juniors it was a team dominated by experienced upper-classmen. Next years team has a lot less experienced leadership.

2. I think you undersell Conlon a bit - she is certainly not on the level of Morgan or Moriah, but she was a very heady and good college PG, a two year starter, and a very good leader - she didn't have the physical attributes for a WNBA career but was good enough to have training camp contracts for a few years.

On the plus side:
3. Nurse I think has some solid Alpha dog potential.

4. I think Samuelson, Collier, Nurse, and Williams have a bit more potential than their counterparts from 2004-5. We'll see how that plays out, and they are younger.

Also un-noted - I don't think the OOC next years has ever been matched in terms of strength (on paper at least.) It is really a murders row of highly rated opponents, most of whom will be played in the first six weeks of the season. The conference schedule should be easier than 2004-5 but the early season looks very daunting to a team making such a huge transition. They could easily fall well down the rankings with early season losses.

[I have often railed against the belief that the 2003 and 2004 championships were DT and the DTettes - those teams had a lot of really good basketball players - as you say, not alpha dog personalities but a lot of skill that gets lost in the fact they 'failed' to win a NC without DT - something that a lot of very good teams around the country have 'failed' to do! - So I agree with your basic premise.]
 
.-.
A lot of good points by all of you. I guess my main concern will be defense. I know the staff will teach good positioning and fundamentals but even with those in place, I thought this year's team was fairly susceptible to penetration to the paint. They were able to control and limit it because of Tuck's experience and Stewart's shotblocking without fouling. Without them I see a lot of potential for foul trouble without any depth up front. I'm just guessing that Auriemma may have to go to more zone against the better teams. It'll be interesting to see how fast they can adjust because if teams start pounding that paint, Butler could foul out in a half.

BobbyJ---Uconn is a Christine, Shea, Marrisa, Geno team--what are they noted for???Hmmm?
The three Gabby --great defensive player under the basket or up on the arc, fast as a nail gun and intelligent.
Nurse--tough tough tough defense--nuff sed.
Napessa--good lower block defense--proven in the final NCAA run.
KLS--rebounds, defends, makes the jumpers, layups, and 3 point shooting in the high 40's.
Add--Bent, Irwin, Dangerfield--speed --if they were any faster you couldn't see them.
Butler--will be faster, more mobile, is a great shooter and better than good rebound--who could ask for more?? Uconn fans that's who!!
 
.-.
BobbyJ---Uconn is a Christine, Shea, Marrisa, Geno team--what are they noted for???Hmmm?
The three Gabby --great defensive player under the basket or up on the arc, fast as a nail gun and intelligent.
Nurse--tough tough tough defense--nuff sed.
Napessa--good lower block defense--proven in the final NCAA run.
KLS--rebounds, defends, makes the jumpers, layups, and 3 point shooting in the high 40's.
Add--Bent, Irwin, Dangerfield--speed --if they were any faster you couldn't see them.
Butler--will be faster, more mobile, is a great shooter and better than good rebound--who could ask for more?? Uconn fans that's who!!

Natalie needs to remove the gum from the bottom of her sneakers so that she will be able to jump.
 
Natalie needs to remove the gum from the bottom of her sneakers so that she will be able to jump.

There was a movie a number of years back===White Men Can't Jump~~!!
Some people can--some people can't--it's all depends upon your build, your parentage, your early athletic endeavors. If Natalie can shoot 40 percent or better from the top of the key, rebound at her current rate, learn to be macho under the boards, and pass as well as she has---I won't be complaining or expecting her to be Stew or even Steff.
 
I believe Cam hides out in the San Diego area which does reduce his getting slugged percentage. A Duke grad? A waiter? Not sure....
As Geno has asserted: Duke's waiters are as many as Uconn grad waiter--but is he in a really quality establishment ??/
 
Maybe I wasn't clear. I think KLS is more assertive than Strother. I just think their skill sets are similar and not as unique as the players who were so different they were pretty much impossible to shut down even with unusual defensive attention. That would be DT, MM and BS. Tennessee had it with
Parker. I think expecting her to carry that sort of load with a relatively young surrounding cast and being a soph herself is asking a lot.
Anne for the most part, past her freshman year, was more reluctant to move away from the 3 point line. Katie Lou attacks the basket much more readily than Anne as a fresh/soph. Katie lou seems to enjoy being the Go To player on offense or defense--not so Anne. Anne blew way too many shots that were a must to make--Katie hasn't had that opportunity as yet but I suspect she'll be wanting the ball then.
I loved Anne then, Love her now--she is and was a beautiful person inside and out.
 
Worse than a waiter - he's a lawyer. Not in San Diego, though.
He can swim with immunity along the California coast---attorneys (lawyers, yuk) have a brotherhood agreement with the SHARKS!!!
 
.-.
Uconn will lose 3 games next year but they will win the last game that they play.
Wow - this is so way out of line - There is absolutely no way they don't get into the NCAA tournament and are relegated to the WNIT! :eek::rolleyes::cool:

Boy - talk about a Debbie Downer!!!:D
 
I think Cam is a lawyer with several servers as clients. :D

Other Duke grads serve food. Cam serves subpoenas.
 
Wow - this is so way out of line - There is absolutely no way they don't get into the NCAA tournament and are relegated to the WNIT! :eek::rolleyes::cool:

Boy - talk about a Debbie Downer!!!:D
One of us read it incorrectly---I took the posting to say Uconn will lose 3 games next year but will make it into the last game they play (the championship). I agree with that statement almost. I think they'll make it to the Final 4--with hope they win the NC but at this time without seeing the team--I'm a bit of a coward (actually a big coward) so I'll hedge my bet on only the Final 4.

What did I miss?? When was the last time Uconn WBB was in the WNIT?? That will only happen again 15 years after Geno retires..
 
One of us read it incorrectly---I took the posting to say Uconn will lose 3 games next year but will make it into the last game they play (the championship). I agree with that statement almost. I think they'll make it to the Final 4--with hope they win the NC but at this time without seeing the team--I'm a bit of a coward (actually a big coward) so I'll hedge my bet on only the Final 4.

What did I miss?? When was the last time Uconn WBB was in the WNIT?? That will only happen again 15 years after Geno retires..
I was making a joke based on the idea that the poster was confident of the last game being a win which happens for only two D1 teams - the NC and the WNIT champion - and assuming he was not predicting an NC.
 
I think Cam is a lawyer with several servers as clients. :D

Other Duke grads serve food. Cam serves subpoenas.
Actually they not served---they must be take out because--they are delivered, by a Sheriff (in Ct)
I know the process--bit of a play on Duke/Food/served/delivered!!
 
One of us read it incorrectly---I took the posting to say Uconn will lose 3 games next year but will make it into the last game they play (the championship). I agree with that statement almost. I think they'll make it to the Final 4--with hope they win the NC but at this time without seeing the team--I'm a bit of a coward (actually a big coward) so I'll hedge my bet on only the Final 4.

What did I miss?? When was the last time Uconn WBB was in the WNIT?? That will only happen again 15 years after Geno retires..
How does one read incorrectly, like right to left?
 
.-.
I was making a joke based on the idea that the poster was confident of the last game being a win which happens for only two D1 teams - the NC and the WNIT champion - and assuming he was not predicting an NC.
A phrase Geno hates---MY BAD!! I'm dense over some thing---just ask my wife!! Apology offered.
If you don't reply using the alphabet as code---YOU S.O.B-- there will be no need to reply, I shall assume you accepted my apology.
 
Worse than a waiter - he's a lawyer. Not in San Diego, though.
Did you know you can't be an Attorney/Lawyer if you don't go to
Harvard?? There is a TV show all about that---a guy lies about going to Harvard--and the government is after him, the NY DA is after him, his co-attornerys hate him--all because he lied about Harvard and can't be an attorney--the things you wouldn't learn if not for TV. Apparently it is not about passing the Bar exam anymore!!
Poor Abe Lincoln--wasn't a real Attorney, he never went to college!!
If the Suit don't fit you must quit--at least on Suits.
 
He can swim with immunity along the California coast---attorneys (lawyers, yuk) have a brotherhood agreement with the SHARKS!!!
But the sharks have a certain angxt about the brotherhood arrangement, since they don't eat their young...
 
I am one and done---after this post you will see no more predictions on next season from me until October.
Another poster put it quite aptly: our OOC schedule in the first six weeks of the season is a "murders row". Thus I see us losing 4 games before the end of Dec. Thereafter we will lose 1 or 2 more games to good teams and somewhere along the road we will lose 1 or 2 to teams we should beat handily. Thus we will go into the tourney with 6 to 8 loses and, Charlie's prediction notwithstanding, we will not be a #1 seed.
Having said that I believe that because of the brand of bb we play our players and team will improve greatly over the course of the season. (So will every other team but not as much as we will.) By March we will be dance-ready. I don't know how far we will go in the tourney but I do know that on bracket day those coaches that wake up and find UCONN in their region will have serious heartburn.
 
I think a part of Strother's problem was she was simply a victim of the expectations game. Maybe she was more explosive before her HS ACL injury, but I believe she was ranked #1 over Simone Augustus, when it was obvious from Day 1 that Augustus was the better player.
 
.-.
Status
Not open for further replies.

Forum statistics

Threads
168,388
Messages
4,570,124
Members
10,475
Latest member
Tunwin22


Top Bottom