UcMiami
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- Joined
- Aug 26, 2011
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So ... just to identify what just walked out the door with the seniors this year - 50% of the experience and 80% of the starter experience on this team. In terms of production there are two numbers: the first is full year which is a little deceptive since the team was seldom challenged, the second is just for the last three games of the NCAA tournament - still unchallenged but games the coaches weren't messing around with:
Minutes: 45%; 55%
Points: 52%; 64%
Assists: 57%; 74%
Rebounds: 46%; 55%
Blocks: 60%; 64%
Steals: 46%; 55%
The blocks and steals are only a hint of the defensive importance of what needs to be replaced when the team reconvenes next fall. When you talk about the 2011-12 team the comparison isn't to the 2011 team but really to the team from the 2009 NC - Renee, Tina, and Maya all leaving the building. For the 2004-5 team, actually 2005-06 is closer with DT, Moore, and Conlon no longer there.
Specific to 2012 - the team was returning 4 starters - Maya and Lorin represented 28% of the minutes, 34% of the points, 35% of the assists, 28% of rebounds, 34% of blocks, and 35% of the steals. In terms of experience the team was losing about 50% again but in terms of starter experience it was losing only 28%
Specific to 2005 - the team was returning 3 starters - DT and Conlon represented 30% of minutes, 29% of points, 41% of assists, 18% of rebounds, 21% of blocks and 31% of steals. In terms of experience only about 40% and starting experience about 50%.
If you look at the other strong teams from this past year, they are almost all losing important players and interestingly a lot are losing their starting PG, but if you were to look at the actual production that graduated or transferred there is simply no comparison to losing the top 3 picks in the WNBA draft. Uconn lost 50% of its offense, most of its experience and leadership, and I would say closer to 70+% of its defense from this past year. Thinking about a game like SC - Morgan completely shutting down Coates, Stewart dealing with Wilson, and Moriah neutralizing Mitchell/Sessions/Cuevas while scoring 53 of the 66 points Uconn scored.
I really like Kia, Lou, Napheesa, and Gabby, I have high hopes for Natalie and Saniya, and I hope Dangerfield can have a much better freshman year than Moriah did. I am really intrigued by Irwin and Bent and hope Courtney can put together a good year, and Tierney will be great in her role. But all of the returning players were just good soldiers this past year following the lead of Moriah, Breanna, and Morgan. The only player who is returning that I think has the ability to really lead and organize this team is Kia. Maybe Dangerfield will be Renee/Jen reincarnated who arrived on campus ready to lead but that is a tall order for a freshman. Lou and Napheesa may have some of those qualities but they had a hard time not deferring this past year and have a lot of personal growth (and recovery) to deal with themselves as do Gabby and Natalie and Saniya and Courtney.
I do think the coaching staff is better than 2005 but don't think there is any significant difference between 2012 and 2016. It is going to be a hard year this next year.
Minutes: 45%; 55%
Points: 52%; 64%
Assists: 57%; 74%
Rebounds: 46%; 55%
Blocks: 60%; 64%
Steals: 46%; 55%
The blocks and steals are only a hint of the defensive importance of what needs to be replaced when the team reconvenes next fall. When you talk about the 2011-12 team the comparison isn't to the 2011 team but really to the team from the 2009 NC - Renee, Tina, and Maya all leaving the building. For the 2004-5 team, actually 2005-06 is closer with DT, Moore, and Conlon no longer there.
Specific to 2012 - the team was returning 4 starters - Maya and Lorin represented 28% of the minutes, 34% of the points, 35% of the assists, 28% of rebounds, 34% of blocks, and 35% of the steals. In terms of experience the team was losing about 50% again but in terms of starter experience it was losing only 28%
Specific to 2005 - the team was returning 3 starters - DT and Conlon represented 30% of minutes, 29% of points, 41% of assists, 18% of rebounds, 21% of blocks and 31% of steals. In terms of experience only about 40% and starting experience about 50%.
If you look at the other strong teams from this past year, they are almost all losing important players and interestingly a lot are losing their starting PG, but if you were to look at the actual production that graduated or transferred there is simply no comparison to losing the top 3 picks in the WNBA draft. Uconn lost 50% of its offense, most of its experience and leadership, and I would say closer to 70+% of its defense from this past year. Thinking about a game like SC - Morgan completely shutting down Coates, Stewart dealing with Wilson, and Moriah neutralizing Mitchell/Sessions/Cuevas while scoring 53 of the 66 points Uconn scored.
I really like Kia, Lou, Napheesa, and Gabby, I have high hopes for Natalie and Saniya, and I hope Dangerfield can have a much better freshman year than Moriah did. I am really intrigued by Irwin and Bent and hope Courtney can put together a good year, and Tierney will be great in her role. But all of the returning players were just good soldiers this past year following the lead of Moriah, Breanna, and Morgan. The only player who is returning that I think has the ability to really lead and organize this team is Kia. Maybe Dangerfield will be Renee/Jen reincarnated who arrived on campus ready to lead but that is a tall order for a freshman. Lou and Napheesa may have some of those qualities but they had a hard time not deferring this past year and have a lot of personal growth (and recovery) to deal with themselves as do Gabby and Natalie and Saniya and Courtney.
I do think the coaching staff is better than 2005 but don't think there is any significant difference between 2012 and 2016. It is going to be a hard year this next year.