For the first time, I believe we may actually be screwed in the long run of conference realignment

[Marty Jackson]

But, the point is, they are heavily in Seattle. Any bleating for tax breaks is just that. There is a whole history of companies moving to tax free areas and finding it is not what it is cracked up to be. Honda in Alabama, for instance, or VW in Tennessee.

Per the Boeing website, in 2012 they had 86K people in WA. Currently they have 74K. That's 12K jobs or roughly 14% of the workforce. Ask the people in WA, or the politicians how they feel about that.

 

[Dooley]

Things that have yet to happen, in my opinion:

1. Big 12 implosion - will it happen before 2024 (would need multiple departures to circumvent GOR clause)? I think we can all agree that the long term outlook (post 2024) for the Big 12 is on life support. ESPN manipulated them big time and 7/8 current members will find themselves in the desperate "UConn Club" once the Big 12 falls apart. Personally, I don't think Texas will leave until it absolutely, positively has to (read: OU leads a mass exodus out). By default, that cements the Texas faction to the conference and should provide some measure of stability until the GOR expires.

2. Notre Dame has to pick a side - Independence or ACC? There is zero incentive for ND to join the ACC from a financial standpoint. They get full share of ACCN money PLUS full share of their own NBC money. If UConn had a similar sweetheart deal handed to them by the ACC, I wouldn't want to give up independence either. But as long as the CFB Playoff remains at 4 entrants, the odds of a 2-loss ND team, with 12 games, getting into the Playoff field are not good. The *ONLY* reason for Notre Dame to join the ACC is to get a shot at playing that coveted, meaningful 13th game and, thus, improve their Playoff resume. What I think will happen is that the Playoff field will be expanded to 8 and that will buy ND a few more years to make a decision.

3. Monopolizing the NCAA Basketball Tournament. Yes, yes...there is too much "history" and warm fuzzy feelings surrounding those feel-good Cinderella stories (F George Mason), but at some point, the Power schools are going to take a good, hard look into how they can make more money from basketball. Why? Youth football participation rates are at record lows. The NFL is incredibly behind the times in enacting player safety rules and concussion effects are a very, real and scary consequence of playing a game. At some point, sports fans won't have the same blood-thirsty love of football. Whether it comes from the long overdue player safety rules being enacted or from the declining numbers of kids playing football in favor of other sports, who knows. Basketball is America's second favorite sport, for the most part, and the Tournament is always must-see TV. Right now, the NCAA owns it and, as a result, controls the cash flow. But that can and will come to an end. For the same reasons why power schools began monopolizing football money, they will want to monopolize basketball money. Big schools with big fanbases don't want to share money with small schools - which is what most of the G5 and mid-major basketball conferences, like the Big East, consist of. This likely won't happen for a while but it will happen.

 

[UCHuskies08]

That's how I have felt since the day Louisville was selected for the ACC over us. All these positive posters on here for years have always made me scratch my head. UConn is screwed for all the wrong reasons despite being very competitive for all the right reasons.

We are being kept out of the club, stepped on too many toes over our rise maybe.

Yea that was the gut punch I never recovered from either. I tried to lie to myself for a while, but the fact of the matter remains that literally nothing that has happened in conference realignment has benefitted UConn in any way and most has directly harmed UConn. That's pretty remarkable. Why should I think that's going to change? It's masochistic to.

 

[upstater]

Per the Boeing website, in 2012 they had 86K people in WA. Currently they have 74K. That's 12K jobs or roughly 14% of the workforce. Ask the people in WA, or the politicians how they feel about that.

The point is, they are not moving out.

They downsized during a recession? A lot of people have. Boeing also isn't selling any planes like they used to. But when your Washington workforce is 5-6x larger than any other? I could hardly call that moving out of Washington. I mean, that's a huge employer, the size of a small city.

 

[UConnJim]

Per the Boeing website, in 2012 they had 86K people in WA. Currently they have 74K. That's 12K jobs or roughly 14% of the workforce. Ask the people in WA, or the politicians how they feel about that.

Boeing moved their headquarters to Chicago in 2001. Boeing had ~197k total employees and 79.5k in Washington. Today, Boeing has ~155k employees with ~75k employees in Washington. I don't think moving the HQ to Chicago has been a real issue for employment in Washington.

As for ESPN, you would never threaten a large employer in the state as Connecticut needs job growth, but I think the Governor making a call to ESPN was the right thing to do. I don't believe the conspiracy theories about ESPN wanting UConn out of the P5 and I think UConn will end up in a good place in the future.

 

[SAMCRO]

[

My fear is that when the "Super Conferences" are created in 10 years, that it will basically be a deal between the existing P5 conferences to take care of each other. So basically what will happen is that the B12 will dissolve into the other 4 conferences to form 4 Super Conferences of 16 teams--but only include the schools "already in the club". Something to the effect of:

B1G : Texas & Kansas
SEC : Oklahoma & TCU
ACC : Notre Dame (full) & West Virginia
PAC : Oklahoma St & Texas Tech & Kansas St & Iowa St

Boom. 4 Conferences. 64 Teams. UConn is left in the dumpster.

Ya, the P12 ain't signing up for that deal, but it does abide by rule #1.

 

[Rocktheworld]

My fear is that when the "Super Conferences" are created in 10 years, that it will basically be a deal between the existing P5 conferences to take care of each other. So basically what will happen is that the B12 will dissolve into the other 4 conferences to form 4 Super Conferences of 16 teams--but only include the schools "already in the club". Something to the effect of:

B1G : Texas & Kansas
SEC : Oklahoma & TCU
ACC : Notre Dame (full) & West Virginia
PAC : Oklahoma St & Texas Tech & Kansas St & Iowa St

Boom. 4 Conferences. 64 Teams. UConn is left in the dumpster.

Possibly.

We have far more value than half the teams picked before us for expansion in the past 15 years. But that has meant nothing. So unfortunately, rational thought and analysis does not necessarily hold here.

If they were to start from scratch and build the 64 best schools by an unbiased panel--yes we would be in. But if the super conferences are formed based on the existing power structure and conferences--I think there is a better chance than not that we are left out.

We get what you're fearing. But what is the rationale for you believeing as you do? Conference Realignment Rule 1 doesn't count.

 

[UConnSportsGuy]

We get what you're fearing. But what is the rationale for you believeing as you do? Conference Realignment Rule 1 doesn't count.

The last 5 years of reality.

Between Louisville getting in the ACC over UConn, then the back-room dealings of the B12/Networks the past couple months. Just has me feeling that the script has now been finished, and UConn has been cut from the movie.

 

[Bobol]

I don't follow UConn sports as closely as many on this site but..... had you told me in the year 2010 that UConn would be on the outside looking in as a non power conference member then I would thought that you were F ' ing nuts.

Many on this site point blame on ESPN for UConn's seemingly being "blackballed" in the conference reshuffle. I would appreciate if someone would please explain how ESPN has contributed to Conn's failure to land in a P5 conference.

Thanks.

 

[upstater]

I don't follow UConn sports as closely as many on this site but..... had you told me in the year 2010 that UConn would be on the outside looking in as a non power conference member then I would thought that you were F ' ing nuts.

Many on this site point blame on ESPN for UConn's seemingly being "blackballed" in the conference reshuffle. I would appreciate if someone would please explain how ESPN has contributed to Conn's failure to land in a P5 conference.

Thanks.

Here's a thread on it. Who actually brings value

The two arguments are:

1. ESPN destroyed the Big East when the BE was negotiating a $13m a year payout per team.
2. ESPN takes money from UConn and uses it to fund loss leaders like the ACC. The total payout for the AAC is 11 teams x 1.8m = 19.8m.

 

[Rocktheworld]

The last 5 years of reality.

Between Louisville getting in the ACC over UConn, then the back-room dealings of the B12/Networks the past couple months. Just has me feeling that the script has now been finished, and UConn has been cut from the movie.

Okay, so basically, Conference Realignment Rule 1. Thanks for starting a whole thread about it

 

[TerryD]

Things that have yet to happen, in my opinion:

1. Big 12 implosion - will it happen before 2024 (would need multiple departures to circumvent GOR clause)? I think we can all agree that the long term outlook (post 2024) for the Big 12 is on life support. ESPN manipulated them big time and 7/8 current members will find themselves in the desperate "UConn Club" once the Big 12 falls apart. Personally, I don't think Texas will leave until it absolutely, positively has to (read: OU leads a mass exodus out). By default, that cements the Texas faction to the conference and should provide some measure of stability until the GOR expires.

2. Notre Dame has to pick a side - Independence or ACC? There is zero incentive for ND to join the ACC from a financial standpoint. They get full share of ACCN money PLUS full share of their own NBC money. If UConn had a similar sweetheart deal handed to them by the ACC, I wouldn't want to give up independence either. But as long as the CFB Playoff remains at 4 entrants, the odds of a 2-loss ND team, with 12 games, getting into the Playoff field are not good. The *ONLY* reason for Notre Dame to join the ACC is to get a shot at playing that coveted, meaningful 13th game and, thus, improve their Playoff resume. What I think will happen is that the Playoff field will be expanded to 8 and that will buy ND a few more years to make a decision.

3. Monopolizing the NCAA Basketball Tournament. Yes, yes...there is too much "history" and warm fuzzy feelings surrounding those feel-good Cinderella stories (F George Mason), but at some point, the Power schools are going to take a good, hard look into how they can make more money from basketball. Why? Youth football participation rates are at record lows. The NFL is incredibly behind the times in enacting player safety rules and concussion effects are a very, real and scary consequence of playing a game. At some point, sports fans won't have the same blood-thirsty love of football. Whether it comes from the long overdue player safety rules being enacted or from the declining numbers of kids playing football in favor of other sports, who knows. Basketball is America's second favorite sport, for the most part, and the Tournament is always must-see TV. Right now, the NCAA owns it and, as a result, controls the cash flow. But that can and will come to an end. For the same reasons why power schools began monopolizing football money, they will want to monopolize basketball money. Big schools with big fanbases don't want to share money with small schools - which is what most of the G5 and mid-major basketball conferences, like the Big East, consist of. This likely won't happen for a while but it will happen.

Notre Dame will not give up its current status unless the playoffs are legally mandated as 4 conference champs only. Until then, ND will maintain the status quo at all costs.

 

[upstater]

Notre Dame will not give up its current status unless the playoffs are legally mandated as 4 conference champs only. Until then, ND will maintain the status quo at all costs.

At all costs? $10m when your competition gets $50m?

 

[TerryD]

At all costs? $10m when your competition gets $50m?

That is not ever going to be a relevant scenario.

With the new NBC deal at $22-23 million per year (not the $15 million from the 2010-15 deal as reported by the media) and with the partial ACC share for basketball ($6.4 million a year, I believe), plus the full ACC Network share, plus the $9 million/year plus from Under Armour plus the millions in alumni donations that may dry up if ND forsakes independence, the money will not be the deciding issue on keeping independence.

Money is not the driving issue with ND. If it were, ND would be in the Big Ten for all sports. ND turned down bigger TV money from the Big Ten in favor of independence.

 

[upstater]

That is not ever going to be a relevant scenario.

With the new NBC deal at $22-23 million per year (not the $15 million from the 2010-15 deal as reported by the media) and with the partial ACC share for basketball ($6.4 million a year, I believe), plus the full ACC Network share, plus the $9 million/year plus from Under Armour plus the millions in alumni donations that may dry up if ND forsakes independence, the money will not be the deciding issue on keeping independence.

Money is not the driving issue with ND. If it were, ND would be in the Big Ten for all sports. ND turned down bigger TV money from the Big Ten in favor of independence.

When does the new NBC deal end?

As for the rest, all your competition has big jersey, licensing, coaching show deals as well, so that stuff cancels. It's the TV money that is key.

 

[TerryD]

When does the new NBC deal end?

As for the rest, all your competition has big jersey, licensing, coaching show deals as well, so that stuff cancels. It's the TV money that is key.

Well, all of the other NBC deals from 1991 until 2015 were five year deals. They were all renewed.

The new deal is a ten year deal that ends in 2025. My guess is that it will be renewed around 2023.

TV money alone is not the key, not for ND. It worries more about hardcore indy loving alumni and fans withholding millions in donations (as they have threatened often since 1999) if football joins a conference than it is the possible incremental difference in TV money.

It also strongly believes that football joining a conference will diminish its brand and national status. That is the fate it strongly wants to avoid, extra TV money be damned.

That is what other fans miss. ND knew that it was walking away from significant TV dollars from the Big Ten when it went for continued indy status and a partial ACC deal.

It rejected the Big Ten (would that conference have taken ND with one phone call inn 2012?), anyway, and went in the other direction. If TV money is everything, why would a school voluntarily walk away from the much better TV deal?

Do you know of any other school in CR history that has done so?

 

[upstater]

Well, all of the other NBC deals from 1991 until 2015 were five year deals. They were all renewed.

The new deal is a ten year deal that ends in 2025. My guess is that it will be renewed around 2023.

TV money alone is not the key, not for ND. It worries more about hardcore indy loving alumni and fans withholding millions in donations (as they have threatened often since 1999) if football joins a conference than it is the possible incremental difference in TV money.

It also strongly believes that football joining a conference will diminish its brand and national status. That is the fate it strongly wants to avoid, extra TV money be damned.

That is what other fans miss. ND knew that it was walking away from significant TV dollars from the Big Ten when it went for continued indy status and a partial ACC deal.

It rejected the Big Ten, anyway, and went in the other direction. If TV money is everything, why would a school voluntarily walk away from the much better TV deal?

Do you know of any other school in CR history that has done so?

I get all that.

Never said otherwise.

But if ND is at a huge disadvantage when it comes to $$, it won't survive.

The TV gap is not there with ND--you are doing fine. But if things change, there is no way you can compete with teams that make $30-40m more than you.

 

[TerryD]

I get all that.

Never said otherwise.

But if ND is at a huge disadvantage when it comes to $$, it won't survive.

The TV gap is not there with ND--you are doing fine. But if things change, there is no way you can compete with teams that make $30-40m more than you.

And if a meteor hits.....

 

[upstater]

And if a meteor hits.....

Wait, so you think ND becoming bad, killing ratings, and NBC offering $15-20m is like a meteor hitting? NBC is not going to support you if the ratings tank and you have many more years like this one.

 

[TerryD]

Wait, so you think ND becoming bad, killing ratings, and NBC offering $15-20m is like a meteor hitting? NBC is not going to support you if the ratings tank and you have many more years like this one.

I don't fear such a thing, at all, sorry. That is not something that ND fans really are worried about. People have been predicting NBC would drop ND for about fifteen or more years. NBC renewed every time the deal was close to ending and doubled the deal's time frame in 2015.

ND fans are pissed at Kelly for this season but he won 12, 9, 8 and 10 games the four seasons before this one. ND is likely much closer to returning to 9-10 wins than likely having 3-9 seasons beyond this year.

I know people want ND football to join a conference and keep trying to come up with Doomsday scenarios since Lou Holtz left in 1996 but there is nothing on the horizon except that 4x16 playoff issue that ND is remotely concerned about regarding its status.

You could not find more than one or two ND fans on any CR site. CR is not really ever talked about on ND boards. It is not something that remotely concerns them.

Take care, I enjoy your posts here and on CCSNbbs.

 

[upstater]

I don't fear such a thing, at all, sorry. That is not something that ND fans really are worried about. People have been predicting NBC would drop ND for about fifteen or more years. NBC renewed every time the deal was close to ending and doubled the deal's time frame in 2015.

ND fans are pissed a Kelly for this season but he won 12, 9, 8 and 10 games the four seasons before this one. ND is likely much closer to returning to 9-10 wins than likely having 3-9 seasons beyond this year.

I know people want ND football to join a conference and keep trying to come up with Doomsday scenarios since Lou Holtz left in 1996 but there is nothing on the horizon except that 4x16 playoff issue that ND is remotely concerned about regarding its status.

You could not find more than one or two ND fans on any CR site. CR is not really ever talked about on ND boards. It is not something that remotely concerns them.

I'm writing as someone that just doesn't see the appeal of ND for young kids, not the appeal I knew it had growing up. I think you're way too overconfident as well.

 

[TerryD]

I'm writing as someone that just doesn't see the appeal of ND for young kids, not the appeal I knew it had growing up. I think you're way too overconfident as well.

I have three kids, six nephews and five grand nephews/nieces. They are all ND fans despite several graduating from other universities. My family is similar to thousands of other ND fan base families. I think that overstate the "lack of appeal" for ND to young people.

Two of my sons were born/raised in Baton Rouge and graduated from LSU. They dislike the Tigers and root for ND.

I think that overstate the "lack of appeal" for ND to a lot of young people, especially from multi-generational ND families.

Time will tell. Take care.

 

[upstater]

I have three kids, six nephews and five grand nephews/nieces. They are all ND fans despite several graduating from other universities. My family is similar to thousands of other ND fan base families. I think that overstate the "lack of appeal" for ND to young people.

Time will tell. Take care.

No doubt it will always have appeal to ND people. I'm talking about young recruits, football players.

 

[TerryD]

No doubt it will always have appeal to ND people. I'm talking about young recruits, football players.

This discussion is taking too much of this thread, and I am certain the wrath of other posters is coming my way.

At the risk of a final post, here is a link to the Rivals team recruiting rankings over the years. ND always recruits pretty well.

https://n com/team_rankings/2017

(Looks like its behind a paywall, sorry. ND is currently # 6 this class, was #14 last year, was #11 the year before that, #11 the year before that and was #3 in 2013--coming off the 2012 12-0 regular season).

 

[upstater]

This discussion is taking too much of this thread, and I am certain the wrath of other posters is coming my way.

At the risk of a final post, here is a link to the Rivals team recruiting rankings over the years. ND always recruits pretty well.

https://n com/team_rankings/2017

(Looks like its behind a paywall, sorry. ND is currently # 6 this class, was #14 last year, was #11 the year before that, #11 the year before that and was #3 in 2013--coming off the 2012 12-0 regular season).

Well, that goes against what I'm saying. He's recruiting well.

 

[kyleslamb]

The gap has already widened. Seriously, take a look back at the revenue of Notre Dame now to its peers and check what it was 10-20 years ago. Arguing that Notre Dame isn't falling behind is ignoring reality. It's not happening drastically, but it's most definitely been happening gradually. In 2002, they were in top-5 in revenue. Now, they're like 15th. There's been a slow but clear trend. As conference media revenue continues to grow and Notre Dame's ratings continue to remain stagnant or even fall, they're falling further behind.

 

[TerryD]

Well, that goes against what I'm saying. He's recruiting well.

Right. ND is reruiting well. Kelly is not coaching very well this season.

Take care.

The gap has already widened. Seriously, take a look back at the revenue of Notre Dame now to its peers and check what it was 10-20 years ago. Arguing that Notre Dame isn't falling behind is ignoring reality. It's not happening drastically, but it's most definitely been happening gradually. In 2002, they were in top-5 in revenue. Now, they're like 15th. There's been a slow but clear trend. As conference media revenue continues to grow and Notre Dame's ratings continue to remain stagnant or even fall, they're falling further behind.

They are not going to fall that far, not enough to make a difference. In any event, money is not the main driver regarding whether ND stays indy.

ND could have called Jim Delany in 2012 if it were. Would he have taken ND as a full member? I think that he would have.

ND knew all of this and voluntarily chose to go in a different direction. That was my only point in this thread, that TV money is not the main issue regarding the status of ND football as an independent.

 

[kyleslamb]

Right. ND is reruiting well. Kelly is not coaching very well this season.

Take care.



They are not going to fall that far, not enough to make a difference. In any event, money is not the main driver regarding whether ND stays indy.

ND could have called Jim Delany in 2012 if it were. Would he have taken ND as a full member? I think that he would have.

ND knew all of this and voluntarily chose to go in a different direction. That was my only point in this thread, that TV money is not the main issue regarding the status of ND football as an independent.

And again, it's not the main issue right now but it will be when the trend continues over the next 10 years. Wait until you see the gap in 2025 if Notre Dame still isn't in a conference. If you think NBC is going to continue to view them as the golden goose with the ratings as they have been, you'll be sorely mistaken.

 

[whaler11]

Notre Dame's problem isn't revenue.

 

[UConnSportsGuy]

ND fans are pissed at Kelly for this season but he won 12, 9, 8 and 10 games the four seasons before this one. ND is likely much closer to returning to 9-10 wins than likely having 3-9 seasons beyond this year.

Given your defensive implosion this year, is there any chance you guys want your old DC back and get the band back together from the glory days of the Kelly era?

We'll split the cost of the $5MM buyout for Diaco with you.

Deal?!

Please!

Please!

Pretty, please!