For the first time, I believe we may actually be screwed in the long run of conference realignment

[TerryD]

Know how successful businesses go under? Relying on doing things the same way just because it used to always work.

Acting like Notre Dame will always be elite just because of their mystique is the quickest way to become irrelevant. Brand names cease to be brand names after a new generation of people have failed to see continual success. You can't act like a $15 million tv deal is going to continue to cut it when some conferences will be bringing in $35-45 million a year. You can choose to think mystique will continue to cut it. Me? I prefer to be realistic and see the trend of where the money is going.

It is not $15 million per year. That was the old NBC deal from 2010-15 (It was $9 million a year before that). I know that the media continues to lazily quote this amount, but ND did not renew the NBC deal for ten years with no increase.

ND sources (private school, no contract details are public) put it at $22-23 million a year for NBC. The ACC /ESPN deal pays ND $6.4 million per year for its partial membership for basketball and Olympic sports. Hockey has its own NBC deal for home games and will get Hockey East money this year and...Big Ten hockey money after this year for away games (a small amount, I know, but its still TV money).

ND will get a full share like the other 14 ACC schools for any ACC Network payments from ESPN. So, ND will be ok with the TV money it gets now and in the future.

 

[JeepCSC]

Notre Dame's worry is relevance to recruits not tv money. Their NBC deal was worth it's weight in gold when no one else could say all their home games would be televised nationally. But things have changed. You can watch every Georgia Tech game from Honolulu if you so desire.

 

[Ldandy]

Its hard to say that anyone including Uconn is screwed long term until we see how the fate of The Big 12 is decided. With the embarrassing way that they fumbled expansion and the reality setting in that they will likely miss another playoff this season, the pressure will continue to mount as 2025 approaches. I simply can not see a viable scenario where OU stays in that hell hole of a conference. If/when they jump you will likely see another round of musical chairs play out. Maybe Uconn gets passed over again but maybe not.

JMO but watching the trends of cord cutting and the fast shifting of delivery mediums, I strongly believe that providing a conference with quality year round content will carry as much weight as the number of cable subscribers potentially billable in the states that schools are located in. What schools have the fan bases that could sell a high volume of stand alone BTN Subscriptions nationwide and could be readily available at the time The B1G renegotiates its media deals? Until Delany says the conference is done expanding and is set forever, which he clearly has not, there is still a chance.

 

[Adios]

I think OU would go to the SEC (as have Arkansas, Missouri and Texas A&M). The demise of the Big 12 would also solidify the ACC. Kansas and UConn to the Big Ten would look more likely. I don't see how Texas and the Big Ten would be able to be on the same page. If so, then Kansas and Texas to the Big Ten?

Worst case scenario, UConn to the ACC so the ACC can expand their own market and increase revenues.

 

[HoopsFan21]

I think OU would go to the SEC (as have Arkansas, Missouri and Texas A&M). The demise of the Big 12 would also solidify the ACC. Kansas and UConn to the Big Ten would look more likely. I don't see how Texas and the Big Ten would be able to be on the same page. If so, then Kansas and Texas to the Big Ten?

Worst case scenario, UConn to the ACC so the ACC can expand their own market and increase revenues.

What makes anyone think that the demise of a conference suddenly means UConn gets picked up? Why is UConn more attractive as a conference expansion target just because some other conference breaks up? Wouldn't existing P5 teams being jettisoned from their now defunct conference get more consideration than UConn which would at that point have been a G5 team for about a decade?
Also UConn mascot makes appearance in ESPN's "Erased" Cubs victory commercial:

 

[Adios]

What makes anyone think that the demise of a conference suddenly means UConn gets picked up? Why is UConn more attractive as a conference expansion target just because some other conference breaks up? Wouldn't existing P5 teams being jettisoned from their now defunct conference get more consideration than UConn which would at that point have been a G5 team for about a decade?
Also UConn mascot makes appearance in ESPN's "Erased" Cubs victory commercial:

Because we're more attractive than the majority of Big 12 schools.

 

[JeepCSC]

UConn's problem is that their most natural fit has no reason to expand. That will likely remain true until Notre Dame goes all-in. And even then, West Virginia is there. And as much as Tobacco Road may say no, it's clear their pull is greatly exaggerated in this whole expansion process.

The B10 is the only other power conference that makes sense. UConn's problem there is Kansas is like the Midwest version of them, only the Jayhawks can serve as a land bridge to Tejas if the B10 decides to go there. If the Pac or SEC take an OU/Tejas contingent, UConn might look more desirable. So it simply is a matter of how the B12 implodes.

 

[BUConn10]

LOL at all the people who think the Big 12 collapse would somehow be a good thing for UConn, or in any way make UConn's position easier to stomach.
Even IF the Big 12 crashes, which it won't that's all forum and clickbait talk in reality, the former members of that conference would still be in a much better position than we are. They still got paid for all the years they were in the big 12, and now they are the likely members to be scooped up. Just more fish for UConn to get passed up for.

 

[FDNY99]

UConn's problem is that their most natural fit has no reason to expand. That will likely remain true until Notre Dame goes all-in. And even then, West Virginia is there. And as much as Tobacco Road may say no, it's clear their pull is greatly exaggerated in this whole expansion process.

The B10 is the only other power conference that makes sense. UConn's problem there is Kansas is like the Midwest version of them, only the Jayhawks can serve as a land bridge to Tejas if the B10 decides to go there. If the Pac or SEC take an OU/Tejas contingent, UConn might look more desirable. So it simply is a matter of how the B12 implodes.

If WVU is there and ND is still refusing to go all in I could see a UConn/WVU pairing to the ACC.

 

[Adios]

LOL at all the people who think the Big 12 collapse would somehow be a good thing for UConn, or in any way make UConn's position easier to stomach.
Even IF the Big 12 crashes, which it won't that's all forum and clickbait talk in reality, the former members of that conference would still be in a much better position than we are. They still got paid for all the years they were in the big 12, and now they are the likely members to be scooped up. Just more fish for UConn to get passed up for.

LOL at you for thinking Kansas State and West Virginia are more valuable than us. The best that could happen if the "Big 12" continues without UT and OU is they bring in Houston and Tulsa.

 

[BUConn10]

LOL at you for thinking Kansas State and West Virginia are more valuable than us. The best that could happen if the "Big 12" continues without UT and OU is they bring in Houston and Tulsa.

One of them already is purely by the football barometer everyone seems obsessed with. And the other will be more valuable by the time the conference hypothetically collapses.

 

[Adios]

One of them already is purely by the football barometer everyone seems obsessed with. And the other will be more valuable by the time the conference hypothetically collapses.

And K-State's fanbase hasn't gotten large, either. West Virginia won't be more valuable because of the market. You clearly don't understand how sports franchises are valued. They are valued based on market, then success.

 

[FartMan69]

And K-State's fanbase hasn't gotten large, either. West Virginia won't be more valuable because of the market. You clearly don't understand how sports franchises are valued. They are valued based on market, then success.

Then why are we in the AAC while WVU got scooped up by the P5?

 

[FartMan69]

One of them already is purely by the football barometer everyone seems obsessed with. And the other will be more valuable by the time the conference hypothetically collapses.

Both are frequent top 25 programs in basketball/football but UConn with one of the worst FBS programs in the country has been passed on by the P5 multiple times is more valuable. We clearly don't get it.

 

[BUConn10]

And K-State's fanbase hasn't gotten large, either. West Virginia won't be more valuable because of the market. You clearly don't understand how sports franchises are valued. They are valued based on market, then success.

Right dude, you are going to seriously sit here and tell me two programs who are literally sitting in the P5, one of whom was in the same exact situation as us when the BE collapsed and was actually chosen as a P5 expansion, are worse expansion candidates as us? Where do people come up with comments lacking so much basic logic. WVU is literally one of the handful of programs that can point to actual events to prove its greater worth in expansion than UConn. Same conference, same collapse, they get chosen we didnt, do you not see how pointless what your saying is?

 

[Adios]

Right dude, you are going to seriously sit here and tell me two programs who are literally sitting in the P5, one of whom was in the same exact situation as us when the BE collapsed and was actually chosen as a P5 expansion, are worse expansion candidates as us? Where do people come up with comments lacking so much basic logic. WVU is literally one of the handful of programs that can point to actual events to prove its greater worth in expansion than UConn. Same conference, same collapse, they get chosen we didnt, do you not see how pointless what your saying is?

Are you really this dense?

As others have said, ESPN helped keep UConn in the AAC to make the AAC more valuable. If you think WVU and K-State are more valuable than UConn... We're even on the Big Ten's radar and you worry about K-State and WVU. You are a brilliant Took you time to come up with that lame argument, huh?

 

[Adios]

Then why are we in the AAC while WVU got scooped up by the P5?

Because they've been at the top tier for a much longer time? Bunch of geniuses here.

I am not going to bother responding anymore to this thread. This message board comes off as an asylum quite a bit.

 

[FartMan69]

Because they've been at the top tier for a much longer time? Bunch of geniuses here.

I am not going to bother responding anymore to this thread. This message board comes off as an asylum quite a bit.

WVU was in the same conference as us I thought? Also top tier meaning level of play? I thought it only had to do with markets? Cincy, USF, UCF, Temple etc are in big markets how come the P5 didn't knock on their door? We've been passed up so many times and you still think if 10 P5 schools with better programs than us get cut loose we'd be in better shape.. but we're crazy? I guess your eyes have been closed the last 6 years

 

[FartMan69]

Are you really this dense?

As others have said, ESPN helped keep UConn in the AAC to make the AAC more valuable. If you think WVU and K-State are more valuable than UConn... We're even on the Big Ten's radar and you worry about K-State and WVU. You are a brilliant Took you time to come up with that lame argument, huh?

We're not on the Big Ten's radar

 

[TRest]

We're not on the Big Ten's radar

I had to put him on ignore solely because of the nonsense posted here. It's maddening.

 

[BUConn10]

WVU was in the same conference as us I thought? Also top tier meaning level of play? I thought it only had to do with markets? Cincy, USF, UCF, Temple etc are in big markets how come the P5 didn't knock on their door? We've been passed up so many times and you still think if 10 P5 schools with better programs than us get cut loose we'd be in better shape.. but we're crazy? I guess your eyes have been closed the last 6 years

Seriously. I don't see how someone can be so foolishly oblivious to what's gone on the last few years. The worst part is how aggressive he's getting trying to argue something that's so obvious to him yet a single person hasn't backed him up.

 

[bobbyinaz]

I had to put him on ignore solely because of the nonsense posted here. It's maddening.

I just joined you. His constant BS about the B1G is ridiculous

 

[whaler11]

I had to put him on ignore solely because of the nonsense posted here. It's maddening.

Turn on your private messages.

 

[Adios]

It's not just my BS. Maybe people in Big Ten offices? Enjoy living in frustration.

I apologize for my frustration with reading pointless drivel.

 

[TRest]

Turn on your private messages.

Done I think.

 

[Danzz]

I agree that UConn is screwed in terms of conference realignment, but I think it would be a great thing if the P5 decided tomorrow that they wanted to break away.

It would bring things to a head, one way or another. If you believe in point #1 (UConn isn't joining a P5 conference soon) then you should want #2 to happen immediately.

The break away from the Big East schools and UConn at a time when Villanova and UConn are playing well will be questioned by many, not to mention any legal repercussions.

However, if the BE and UConn devolve in bball over the next 20 years, that's a bit scarier.

The only hope/help by then is that the B12 breaks apart, and/or that Notre Dame throws in the towel and joins a conference.

Texas leaving could be the demise of the Big 12 and then realignment renews. Would there be an opportunity for UConn to join a P5 conference at that time? Maybe.
The BE wouldn't take us now because there is nothing in it for them. They know if the Big calls we leave. They really don't need us because any revenue isues the BE may have won't be solved by adding UConn.
I believe that our biggest problem is the size of our market and the number of TV sets that go along with it. This and the fact that our football program sucks.

 

[Danzz]

Things that have yet to happen, in my opinion:

1. Big 12 implosion - will it happen before 2024 (would need multiple departures to circumvent GOR clause)? I think we can all agree that the long term outlook (post 2024) for the Big 12 is on life support. ESPN manipulated them big time and 7/8 current members will find themselves in the desperate "UConn Club" once the Big 12 falls apart. Personally, I don't think Texas will leave until it absolutely, positively has to (read: OU leads a mass exodus out). By default, that cements the Texas faction to the conference and should provide some measure of stability until the GOR expires.

2. Notre Dame has to pick a side - Independence or ACC? There is zero incentive for ND to join the ACC from a financial standpoint. They get full share of ACCN money PLUS full share of their own NBC money. If UConn had a similar sweetheart deal handed to them by the ACC, I wouldn't want to give up independence either. But as long as the CFB Playoff remains at 4 entrants, the odds of a 2-loss ND team, with 12 games, getting into the Playoff field are not good. The *ONLY* reason for Notre Dame to join the ACC is to get a shot at playing that coveted, meaningful 13th game and, thus, improve their Playoff resume. What I think will happen is that the Playoff field will be expanded to 8 and that will buy ND a few more years to make a decision.

3. Monopolizing the NCAA Basketball Tournament. Yes, yes...there is too much "history" and warm fuzzy feelings surrounding those feel-good Cinderella stories (F George Mason), but at some point, the Power schools are going to take a good, hard look into how they can make more money from basketball. Why? Youth football participation rates are at record lows. The NFL is incredibly behind the times in enacting player safety rules and concussion effects are a very, real and scary consequence of playing a game. At some point, sports fans won't have the same blood-thirsty love of football. Whether it comes from the long overdue player safety rules being enacted or from the declining numbers of kids playing football in favor of other sports, who knows. Basketball is America's second favorite sport, for the most part, and the Tournament is always must-see TV. Right now, the NCAA owns it and, as a result, controls the cash flow. But that can and will come to an end. For the same reasons why power schools began monopolizing football money, they will want to monopolize basketball money. Big schools with big fanbases don't want to share money with small schools - which is what most of the G5 and mid-major basketball conferences, like the Big East, consist of. This likely won't happen for a while but it will happen.

Notre Dame goes to the Big if it choses to join a conference.

 

[whaler11]

Notre Dame goes to the Big if it choses to join a conference.

They actually can't. They have a contractual obligation to join the ACC if they join a conference.

 

[billybud]

If Notre Dame goes anywhere in the next 20 years, it will be the ACC per the contract language that came about with the GOR renewal.

The Big 12, I still think, will be forced to expand...staying at ten while everyone else is at fourteen makes them look like the odd man out...and their ten have a limited market once you leave Texas. If they once again get left out of the playoffs, the webs will again hum with fan dissatisfaction.

The B1G and the ACC seem set for the time being, I think.

 

[Seaa Blue]

They actually can't. They have a contractual obligation to join the ACC if they join a conference.

I'm guessing there's a way out:

Pull all the teams out. Pay the 1/4 standard exit fee. Done.