For the first time, I believe we may actually be screwed in the long run of conference realignment

Discussion in 'Conference Realignment Board' started by UConnSportsGuy, Oct 27, 2016.

  1. UConnSportsGuy

    UConnSportsGuy Addicted to all things UCONN!

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    I am probably just late to the party, but for the first time I think that we may actually be left out of the "power conferences" when they break apart in the next 10-20 years.

    I always thought that we were in a bad spot now, but would be fine in the long run (as long as we could survive until our life boat arrived). I thought that there was no way they could exclude UConn from the eventual formation of the "Power Conferences". I tried to apply rational thought and thinking--but I guess that was a huge mistake.

    How could we be left out? If you were to take any objective combination of criteria for inclusion, we would rank in the Top 40 of any list. There are likely to be at least 64 teams in the "Power Division". How could we possibly be left out when schools like Wake Forest, Purdue, Northwestern, Washington State, and Baylor are included. It makes no rational sense.

    But for the first time, I actually think that the chances are greater than 50% that we are left out. It is excruciating to even think about. But unfortunately I think the scarlet letter (quite ironic writing that) has been placed on our chest and we are going to be excluded.

    I hope to all hell that I am wrong, but for the first time I am on the nay-sayers bandwagon.

    :(
     
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  2. upstater

    upstater

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    I agree that UConn is screwed in terms of conference realignment, but I think it would be a great thing if the P5 decided tomorrow that they wanted to break away.

    It would bring things to a head, one way or another. If you believe in point #1 (UConn isn't joining a P5 conference soon) then you should want #2 to happen immediately.

    The break away from the Big East schools and UConn at a time when Villanova and UConn are playing well will be questioned by many, not to mention any legal repercussions.

    However, if the BE and UConn devolve in bball over the next 20 years, that's a bit scarier.

    The only hope/help by then is that the B12 breaks apart, and/or that Notre Dame throws in the towel and joins a conference.
     
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  3. Husky92

    Husky92

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    Well said.
     
  4. Hoophound

    Hoophound

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    Don't worry, the system is going to have a use for us. However, at a minimum we have got to keep winning lots of basketball games and titles until the call comes. UConn offers too much good programming to leave out, even with an AAC schedule. That's why ESPN has us on TV constantly. When jig is up and ESPN can't suck our blood for nothing any longer, they'll put us in the ACC. If not, the B10 will decide to step on the ACC's throat and take us in. It will happen.
     
  5. Rocktheworld

    Rocktheworld

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    Gonna actually tell us why you think this, as opposed to starting a thread simply announcing your emotional state? Is there any rationale for your anxiety
     
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  6. UConnJim

    UConnJim

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    Conference realignment is not over. You have the Big 10 with 14 schools, SEC with 14 schools, ACC with 14 plus ND, Big 12 with 10, and Pac 12 with 12. Numbers don't make much sense. Also, too many large, growing universities, primarily in the South, will be hard to ignore.

    Also, the college sports rights business model is changing and conferences will need more brands as you won't be able to force cable subscribers to take channels in the future. For example, look at the ACC footprint. They have a huge hole from Boston to Virginia of potential eyeballs and no clear path to claiming NYC. UConn helps with both of those objectives.

    UConn needs to continue to build both the university and the athletic programs to become more attractive to be the next school up. No conference wants to hear that we will invest when we get the call up. Sure, money is an issue, but we need to figure it out.

    As for football, UConn is one magical season away from rebuilding the fan base. The only question is can Diaco deliver one? Remember the 1990 men's basketball season? We need one in football. By the way, the AAC is a good enough football conference to excite the fan base if UConn is ranked and winning.
     
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  7. noeynox

    noeynox

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    The writing has kind of been in the wall since Louisville to the ACC.

    The ACC has basically cemented itself until 2036 (thanks espn). That is 20 years from now, that conference has always been our most logical destination. The Big 12 was a sliver of hope with their process rata clause but that appears over. The Big 10, at the per team payout going forward is a pipe dream.

    People should start getting over their disdain for the AAC teams.
     
  8. upstater

    upstater

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    At a minimum winning titles???

    Heh.

    Think of schools like Georgetown, Syracuse, Michigan State, Arizona, etc.

    This is a very tall order. One can argue the probabilities of being in a conference like B12 lite are much higher than winning another title in the next 10 years.
     
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  9. Rocktheworld

    Rocktheworld

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    That's not what the OP is about. As far as I could gather, the OP was concerned that if/when the P5 breaks away from the NCAA, UConn will be left out when the slate is wiped clean and conferences are re-formed essentially from scratch

    I was asking if he had any actual reason for fearing/believing that
     
  10. UConnJim

    UConnJim

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    Big 10 had a grant of rights and expanded so an ACC GORs doesn't mean they won't expand. And, I don't think we will be watching sports in forced cable bundles in the not too distant future as the sports viewing business model changes. Brands and fan bases will matter and UConn has a brand and a fan base to be relevant.
     
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  11. don356

    don356

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    I wouldn't be sure of anything. The long term look for these tv revenue driven deals for the big boys is not encouraging. If that wavers, look for realignment to go back to sanity meaning that it will be grouped into geographically smart moves. Think Big East again. TV money is the only thing driving this right now and if it wavers, it will be a big long sucking sound out of college athletic budgets for those who have it now.
     
  12. kyleslamb

    kyleslamb

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    Big 12 is on its deathbed. Not sure if it will happen in the next few years or if they'll wait out the Grant of Rights and start jumping around 2023, but it seems a pretty good bed. it's dead. That means anywhere between 10-26 spots that will opening up for a four conference power structure in an upper subdivision. It's going to happen IMHO. UConn will have a seat at the table in the Big Ten or ACC by 2025. I'd be shocked if not. I know my opinion doesn't meany anything to you all, but just read the tea leaves closely and it would be hard to believe otherwise.
     
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  13. UConnTrumbull

    UConnTrumbull Simba Walker on Twitter

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    The next brick to fall is Big 12 implosion. I don't know if that's good for us or bad for us but I do know that UConn won't be the only program left out in the rain. Any B12 school outside of OU and UT have a chance to fall into our same predicament. Misery loves company.
     
  14. Sea Goat

    Sea Goat

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    There is too much legacy riff raff in the existing P5 conferences for CR to remain static for that long. If the P5 wanted to start over with 80 teams split 5 ways, then we surely get in.
    We're too good a university, in too good a market to languish forever or even 10 yrs. In the meantime, we keep doing what we're doing academically and keep it going athletically. Which means that HCBD has to get his head out of his @$$ now or disappear. Also, strategically appoint BOT members. No more political chums who don't advance our reputation or prospects in CR. Get people on the BOT that can help us with $$$ or with CR.
     
  15. BUConn10

    BUConn10 Artist formerly known as BUHusky10

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    That's how I have felt since the day Louisville was selected for the ACC over us. All these positive posters on here for years have always made me scratch my head. UConn is screwed for all the wrong reasons despite being very competitive for all the right reasons.

    We are being kept out of the club, stepped on too many toes over our rise maybe.
     
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  16. Hoophound

    Hoophound

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    Not so much national titles, but conference titles. We need to continue to be a nationally relevant, Top 15-20 program so that we stay in front of an audience.
     
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  17. The Funster

    The Funster Purveyor of fine bullspit

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    I definitely agree with your reading of the tea leaves. The concern is the effects of the revenue shortfall from now until things shake out.
     
  18. CL82

    CL82 It's going to be ok - calm down and enjoy the ride

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    I think we are SOL. But who knows, right?
     
  19. Who Ha

    Who Ha

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    Malloy is not one to keep his mouth shut when he is pissed. Could there be a deal? Nah, he can't afford to piss off and have another major employer say adios
     
  20. Seaa Blue

    Seaa Blue

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    So when the Big 12 gets tired of watching the doomsday clock, and implodes:

    ACC: Cinci, WVU, USF, ND
    PAC: Colorado State, BYU football, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Kansas State
    B1G: UConn, Oklahoma, Iowa State, Kansas
    SEC: Houston, UCF, Texas, Oklahoma State

    Just trying to illustrate your path the the B1G...
     
  21. upstater

    upstater

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    ESPN is going to move? It would be pretty difficult. Hard to plunk down a billion+ and then abandon the campus.
     
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  22. Who Ha

    Who Ha

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    Not easy, but can can easily start slowly by increases offices in LA, Charlotte, Miami and Seattle. Yes, they won't immediately dump their digital investment in Bristol, but unlike us, they have options
     
  23. Marty Jackson

    Marty Jackson

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    Boeing ain't in Seattle anymore.
     
  24. upstater

    upstater

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    Are you sure about that?

    They have 75k employees there right now.

    Next highest elsewhere? 14k in Cali. I know everyone made a big deal about South Carolina stealing them, but right now there are 8k employees in SC.
     
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  25. upstater

    upstater

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    Sure, they can drift away from NYC, but the slow strategy is sure to be a problem, because then they split operations. They can't bleed slowly and maintain the kind of crossover that you constantly see on their shows.