Final BE OOC thread 25/26

[RuffRuff]

Nothing changed that drastically to think that can’t happen again. Hell I hate St John’s this season and I think they could make a sweet 16.

NC State, FAU and San Diego St made a final 4 recently.

Shaheen Holloway(you know the SH coach) got St Peter’s to an elite 8.

Nova is not even 10 years removed from winning championships

Saying no BE outside of UConn will make an elite 8 in the next decade is a bad bet.

And I think the conference sucks this year

We are never seeing a 2023 F4 again. What we saw last year will be very close to what we see going forward.

 

[WhereistheDove?]

We are never seeing a 2023 F4 again. What we saw last year will be very close to what we see going forward.

I mean last year will be much closer to what we see normally but that’s also largely how it has been in the past. We will continue to see weird anomaly years because basketball is subject to a lot of game to game randomness and variability and a single elimination tournament will lead to weird outcomes sometimes.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

We are never seeing a 2023 F4 again. What we saw last year will be very close to what we see going forward.

There will be years like 2025, there will also be years like 2024 and years like 2023.

This isn't the first time it appeared that high seeds would dominate all future tournaments. When it starts looking that way, a year or two later we end up with a final four with three or four lesser seeds.

 

[RuffRuff]

I mean last year will be much closer to what we see normally but that’s also largely how it has been in the past. We will continue to see weird anomaly years because basketball is subject to a lot of game to game randomness and variability and a single elimination tournament will lead to weird outcomes sometimes.

No, not when the little guys are minor league systems to the big guys. The days of the Cinderella are over. There is too big a talent disparity.

This aspect of the portal had not yet fully played out in 2023. All of Florida’s three guards last year were portal.

I mean look at this year - other than Gonzaga, there is no mid major in sight that has a chance to do a thing.

Not sure what you guys are missing here. Last year there was one true mid major Cinderella win. And that coach is now at NCSt.

 

[Tyler2Rings]

No, not when the little guys are minor league systems to the big guys. The days of the Cinderella are over. There is too big a talent disparity.

This aspect of the portal had not yet fully played out in 2023. All of Florida’s three guards last year were portal.

I just don't think that's true at all. The portal works both ways. There will be mid major super teams of undervalued P5 transfers too

 

[SixRings]

Can we talk about how awful Marquette is? It's really so much worse than I could have imagined. This team is getting pounded.

Shaka refuses to use the portal and it’s killing them. There is no shortage of NIL donors there so it’s his choice. I think he gets one more year. He lost a lot of scoring from last year and thinks he has the players to win in his system. But they’re atrocious this year considering where they were two years ago and even last year.

 

[RuffRuff]

I just don't think that's true at all. The portal works both ways. There will be mid major super teams of undervalued P5 transfers too

I’d put heavy money on the fact you’re wrong. Weird theory - you think a mid major can grab a bunch of washed P5 transfers and be tournament good? No chance. The only team I even see doing it is a team like Memphis, and they never do much. Too many analytics these days to give coaches a sense of who is a winning player/efficient.

You are even seeing how the portal impacts efficiency and KP when you can build super teams. KP highs this year, last year are like 5-7 points higher on average than 2023. That is significant.

When the teams that have money grab your best players, and also get the best HS players, you don't have a chance. Not sure how anyone is missing this.

This sounds like Navery talking.

 

[RuffRuff]

Shaka refuses to use the portal and it’s killing them. There is no shortage of NIL donors there so it’s his choice. I think he gets one more year. He lost a lot of scoring from last year and thinks he has the players to win in his system. But they’re atrocious this year considering where they were two years ago and even last year.

If he can't make the adjustment after this abysmal year, then he's asking to be pushed out. It's one thing to have a rebuild year where you are marginal, but this team is terrible. Even when you are rebuilding, you don't go from being this bad to then being a tourney team.

 

[WhereistheDove?]

No, not when the little guys are minor league systems to the big guys. The days of the Cinderella are over. There is too big a talent disparity.

This aspect of the portal had not yet fully played out in 2023. All of Florida’s three guards last year were portal.

I mean look at this year - other than Gonzaga, there is no mid major in sight that has a chance to do a thing.

Not sure what you guys are missing here. Last year there was one true mid major Cinderella win. And that coach is now at NCSt.

It’s a single elimination tournament in a sport where there is a ton of variability. We may see fewer cinderellas but there will be big teams that crap the bed with an early exit, brackets that break down, and paths that allow deep runs to mid major teams. If we moved to a 3-game series each round, I’d probably agree with you, but the NCAA tournament is not set up to find the most talented team every year.

 

[superjohn]

I’d put heavy money on the fact you’re wrong. Weird theory - you think a mid major can grab a bunch of washed P5 transfers and be tournament good? No chance. The only team I even see doing it is a team like Memphis, and they never do much. Too many analytics these days to give coaches a sense of who is a winning player/efficient.

You are even seeing how the portal impacts efficiency and KP when you can build super teams. KP highs this year, last year are like 5-7 points higher on average than 2023. That is significant.

When the teams that have money grab your best players, and also get the best HS players, you don't have a chance. Not sure how anyone is missing this.

This sounds like Navery talking.

 

[Mr. Wonderful]

We are never seeing a 2023 F4 again. What we saw last year will be very close to what we see going forward.

Never is a long time.

 

[RuffRuff]

It’s a single elimination tournament in a sport where there is a ton of variability. We may see fewer cinderellas but there will be big teams that crap the bed with an early exit, brackets that break down, and paths that allow deep runs to mid major teams. If we moved to a 3-game series each round, I’d probably agree with you, but the NCAA tournament is not set up to find the most talented team every year.

I don't think so - sure, maybe you'll see some teams outside the top 20 or so get picked off (that 7 vs 12 game). There is a pretty clear line of the very good teams to the also rans around 20ish. That bottom 5 of the top 25 has been musical chairs. The top 20 programs will be hoarding all the top talent and creating wide margins.

Not sure where all the variability is. Back in the preportal era, a mid major could go find some lower rated HS kids that were late bloomers and pull something interesting together. Nowadays those kids leave.

Top it off that the top programs are now pulling in a lot of great international talent - forget it.

Not to create another thread, but I'm wrong plenty and have no problem with it. This view I feel pretty confident on. Surprising that no one sees that.

I would be shocked if the E8 this year isn't made up of the current top 20 teams or so.

 

[navery12]

I don't think so - sure, maybe you'll see some teams outside the top 20 or so get picked off (that 7 vs 12 game). There is a pretty clear line of the very good teams to the also rans around 20ish. That bottom 5 of the top 25 has been musical chairs. The top 20 programs will be hoarding all the top talent and creating wide margins.

Not sure where all the variability is. Back in the preportal era, a mid major could go find some lower rated HS kids that were late bloomers and pull something interesting together. Nowadays those kids leave.

Top it off that the top programs are now pulling in a lot of great international talent - forget it.

Not to create another thread, but I'm wrong plenty and have no problem with it. This view I feel pretty confident on. Surprising that no one sees that.

I would be shocked if the E8 this year isn't made up of the current top 20 teams or so.

The reason why nobody else sees it is that you're ignoring half of the transfer portal. For every mid major kid you talk about transferring up to these top 20 programs, there's a subsequent high major player transferring down to a more appropriate level. You've got teams like FAU, McNeese State in the past and High Point and Grand Canyon that are led by high major transfers that can dominate that level

 

[AllHusky]

No, not when the little guys are minor league systems to the big guys. The days of the Cinderella are over. There is too big a talent disparity.

This aspect of the portal had not yet fully played out in 2023. All of Florida’s three guards last year were portal.

I mean look at this year - other than Gonzaga, there is no mid major in sight that has a chance to do a thing.

Not sure what you guys are missing here. Last year there was one true mid major Cinderella win. And that coach is now at NCSt.

This is my fear. Not that weaker programs can't get talent, and compete, they can't hold them long enough to put something together. I'd say 2 years would do it, but if they are good enough to mount a run "next year", they have players good enough to be poached "this year". Difficult to bring a crew in, develop a "program" and get there in one year. Ask Pitino.

 

[RuffRuff]

Never is a long time.

Take a look at where the landscape is going. It's not going to go backwards. Football is leading the charge, and that has consolidated significantly. Basketball and power conferences are simply following suit. There is definitely more variability in hoops given 5 players, but to a point.

The reason why nobody else sees it is that you're ignoring half of the transfer portal. For every mid major kid you talk about transferring up to these top 20 programs, there's a subsequent high major player transferring down to a more appropriate level. You've got teams like FAU, McNeese State in the past and High Point and Grand Canyon that are led by high major transfers that can dominate that level

You think that high level players are going to leave for High Point & McNeese State over a power school? Flawed thinking. The reason they'll go to HP & GC is because they're just not that good.

FAU was 2023, can we stop bringing them up. One of those players was on Florida last year. That whole team went portaling after they won it. Goldin was on UM, Donnell on Arkansas (both S16 teams). If anything was learned there, it's that those players leave now.

Few has enough cache, brand and creativity to keep it going.

 

[navery12]

Take a look at where the landscape is going. It's not going to go backwards. Football is leading the charge, and that has consolidated significantly. Basketball and power conferences are simply following suit. There is definitely more variability in hoops given 5 players, but to a point.

You think that high level players are going to leave for High Point & McNeese State over a power school? Flawed thinking. The reason they'll go to HP & GC is because they're just not that good.

FAU was 2023, can we stop bringing them up. One of those players was on Florida last year. That whole team went portaling after they won it. Goldin was on UM, Donnell on Arkansas (both S16 teams). If anything was learned there, it's that those players leave now.

Few has enough cache, brand and creativity to keep it going.

You're completely missing the point, which I'm pretty sure is just your goal on this board these days. I'm not saying players are going to choose to go to low and mid majors over high majors. I'm saying you're focusing on all the players transferring up to high majors, but roster spots are a zero sum game. For every player going up one has to go down, and those guys who suck at the high major level are still able to dominate at the mid and low majors.

You're also wrong about FAU. All those guys came back after their run, and only left when Dusty May went to Michigan after the next season

 

[Inyatkin]

Guys stop bringing up 2023, that was so long ago there are active college players who were playing that year. It's ancient history.

 

[NJHusky]

Put me in the Cinderella is dying side of the equation. No mid major can keep a good team together. They still find the under rate HS kid, but he’s not staying there for 3 years to develop. Unless some mid major has a Repole, they will lose their good players after one year.

The football schools also realized it’s possible to put money into FB & BB. And it’s showing.

 

[superjohn]

You're completely missing the point, which I'm pretty sure is just your goal on this board these days. I'm not saying players are going to choose to go to low and mid majors over high majors. I'm saying you're focusing on all the players transferring up to high majors, but roster spots are a zero sum game. For every player going up one has to go down, and those guys who suck at the high major level are still able to dominate at the mid and low majors.

You're also wrong about FAU. All those guys came back after their run, and only left when Dusty May went to Michigan after the next season

And schools who never got 4 stars out of high school are now getting 4 stars out of high school. I already explained this to him but he simply won't look past players transferring up which we all know constantly happens but we don't pretend it's the only thing happening.

 

[auror]

We'll still have Cinderellas. You'll get the right pairing of rising coach and personnel (veteran stepping up, down transfers or head cases turning it around, or overlooked 4* freshmen). But I do agree it will be less frequent. The median D1 team is a lot further from the top cluster than it ever has been due to the portal, better analytics, and better high end talent staying in school, which makes random variance upsets less likely.

 

[RuffRuff]

You're completely missing the point, which I'm pretty sure is just your goal on this board these days. I'm not saying players are going to choose to go to low and mid majors over high majors. I'm saying you're focusing on all the players transferring up to high majors, but roster spots are a zero sum game. For every player going up one has to go down, and those guys who suck at the high major level are still able to dominate at the mid and low majors.

You're also wrong about FAU. All those guys came back after their run, and only left when Dusty May went to Michigan after the next season

Is it a zero sum game? At top programs, players graduate, get drafted. Take a UM for instance - Golden & Wolf graduated, they went out and got Mara & Yaxel (and others). Yes, on occasion high majors will move off players that don't meet the bar (like a Nowell), but not sure how that sets up a VCU to make a significant tourney run or to be a cinderella, getting the scraps from the high majors. Not zero sum. It's a replenishment system in most cases.

And schools who never got 4 stars out of high school are now getting 4 stars out of high school. I already explained this to him but he simply won't look past players transferring up which we all know constantly happens but we don't pretend it's the only thing happening.

So they get 4 stars who want PT, and then transfer out to a top program? Not sure how that helps mid majors. What mid major this year is really impressing you, and has shown S16 potential. I guess Utah St & St Louis are that? If you look at last years portal class, of the top 100, I don't think one kid portaled to a mid major. Grand Canyon may have gotten someone late.

We'll still have Cinderellas. You'll get the right pairing of rising coach and personnel (veteran stepping up, down transfers or head cases turning it around, or overlooked 4* freshmen). But I do agree it will be less frequent. The median D1 team is a lot further from the top cluster than it ever has been due to the portal, better analytics, and better high end talent staying in school, which makes random variance upsets less likely.

Exactamundo. Sure, there will be an outlier here and there, like a Will Wade at McNeese. You can bet as soon as a good mid major coach makes a run, he'll also "portal" up to the next high major opening (Devries).

 

[HooperScooper]

Fwiw Joey likes us again.

Men's Bracketology: Duke's ascension to No. 1 overall was inevitable

It was only a matter of time until a path opened for the Blue Devils, who ride their win over Michigan to the top.

www.espn.com

 

[navery12]

Is it a zero sum game? At top programs, players graduate, get drafted. Take a UM for instance - Golden & Wolf graduated, they went out and got Mara & Yaxel (and others). Yes, on occasion high majors will move off players that don't meet the bar (like a Nowell), but not sure how that sets up a VCU to make a significant tourney run or to be a cinderella, getting the scraps from the high majors. Not zero sum. It's a replenishment system in most cases.

Yes, it's a zero sum game for roster spots. In your Michigan example they had 4 transfers in and 5 transfers out to varying levels of programs. But even if that wasn't the case it's still a zero sum game, because if they are replacing NBA Draft picks with those up transfers then that's a high school recruit they're not taking for that spot that is available now

 

[NJHusky]

Fwiw Joey likes us again.

Men's Bracketology: Duke's ascension to No. 1 overall was inevitable

It was only a matter of time until a path opened for the Blue Devils, who ride their win over Michigan to the top.

www.espn.com

Why did I even click on that. Lol. He’s got Houston as a 3 and Vandy as 2 in the same region. I think Houston is more likely to be a 1 than 3

 

[RuffRuff]

Yes, it's a zero sum game for roster spots. In your Michigan example they had 4 transfers in and 5 transfers out to varying levels of programs. But even if that wasn't the case it's still a zero sum game, because if they are replacing NBA Draft picks with those up transfers then that's a high school recruit they're not taking for that spot that is available now

How is that zero sum? Zero sum would be if every year was the same assortment of players moving around. This is an out and up system. In this case top schools see off their talent to the pros/graduation, then pull a kid like Yaxel to fill in a spot. Then his departing school fills in that spot with a much less talented freshmen or lower level transfer. The cream is always rising in the current system.

Circle back pre portal, coach finds a hidden gem and kid gets generally stays up until the point they may be good enough to leave for the pros. That is a massive difference in how a cinderella shapes.

The portal started in 2019, NIL a couple years later. The portal entries have gone up from 1600 in 2022 to 2200 in 2025. Perhaps it's zero sum beyond the top 20 programs.