Final BE OOC thread 25/26

[RuffRuff]

Yes, it's a zero sum game for roster spots. In your Michigan example they had 4 transfers in and 5 transfers out to varying levels of programs. But even if that wasn't the case it's still a zero sum game, because if they are replacing NBA Draft picks with those up transfers then that's a high school recruit they're not taking for that spot that is available now

How is that zero sum? Zero sum would be if every year was the same assortment of players moving around. This is an out and up system. In this case top schools see off their talent to the pros/graduation, then pull a kid like Yaxel to fill in a spot. Then his departing school fills in that spot with a much less talented freshmen or lower level transfer. The cream is always rising in the current system.

Circle back pre portal, coach finds a hidden gem and kid gets generally stays up until the point they may be good enough to leave for the pros. That is a massive difference in how a cinderella shapes.

The portal started in 2019, NIL a couple years later. The portal entries have gone up from 1600 in 2022 to 2200 in 2025. Perhaps it's zero sum beyond the top 20 programs.

 

[RuffRuff]

Why did I even click on that. Lol. He’s got Houston as a 3 and Vandy as 2 in the same region. I think Houston is more likely to be a 1 than 3

Seeing who wins the Big12 will be a fun watch. They have 4 elite teams (Houston, ISU, BYU and Arizona).

 

[superjohn]

Is it a zero sum game? At top programs, players graduate, get drafted. Take a UM for instance - Golden & Wolf graduated, they went out and got Mara & Yaxel (and others). Yes, on occasion high majors will move off players that don't meet the bar (like a Nowell), but not sure how that sets up a VCU to make a significant tourney run or to be a cinderella, getting the scraps from the high majors. Not zero sum. It's a replenishment system in most cases.


So they get 4 stars who want PT, and then transfer out to a top program? Not sure how that helps mid majors. What mid major this year is really impressing you, and has shown S16 potential. I guess Utah St & St Louis are that? If you look at last years portal class, of the top 100, I don't think one kid portaled to a mid major. Grand Canyon may have gotten someone late.


Exactamundo. Sure, there will be an outlier here and there, like a Will Wade at McNeese. You can bet as soon as a good mid major coach makes a run, he'll also "portal" up to the next high major opening (Devries).

Players are moving up and moving down from the mid-major ranks and within the major power conferences and there's less power conference/major spots for high school recruits than there used to be so some 4 stars who always would've gone to the major power conference schools out of high school are now going to mid-major schools which never happened in the past.

I already explained there's less mid-majors than there once was with major/power conferences becoming mega conferences. BYU, Butler, Houston, Utah, Creighton, Marquette, UCF, SMU, TCU were all mid-majors. Coaches have always moved up after making big runs, that's obviously nothing new.


We don't usually know the mid-major who is going to make a run until it happens, that's the whole point of cinderellas.

 

[ucp990411]

I almost expect to lose to Seton Hall. We aren't going 20-0 or 19-1 so we will have to lose to somebody.

Pessimistic opinion

 

[navery12]

How is that zero sum? Zero sum would be if every year was the same assortment of players moving around. This is an out and up system. In this case top schools see off their talent to the pros/graduation, then pull a kid like Yaxel to fill in a spot. Then his departing school fills in that spot with a much less talented freshmen or lower level transfer. The cream is always rising in the current system.

Circle back pre portal, coach finds a hidden gem and kid gets generally stays up until the point they may be good enough to leave for the pros. That is a massive difference in how a cinderella shapes.

The portal started in 2019, NIL a couple years later. The portal entries have gone up from 1600 in 2022 to 2200 in 2025. Perhaps it's zero sum beyond the top 20 programs.

Zero sum means there are a fixed number of roster spots, which is something I think you'd have to agree is true. There are 79 P5 teams and 1185 roster spots for those teams always, that doesn't change.

These schools can't just endlessly pull players onto their rosters with no limit, that's why it's a zero sum game. If they are bringing in all the elite mid major transfers then they by definition have less room for the 4 star freshmen, or developmental sophomores and juniors, or the senior role players. Those spots they're filling have to open up somewhere, and it's not just NBA departures and graduations

 

[RuffRuff]

Zero sum means there are a fixed number of roster spots, which is something I think you'd have to agree is true. There are 79 P5 teams and 1185 roster spots for those teams always, that doesn't change.

These schools can't just endlessly pull players onto their rosters with no limit, that's why it's a zero sum game. If they are bringing in all the elite mid major transfers then they by definition have less room for the 4 star freshmen, or developmental sophomores and juniors, or the senior role players. Those spots they're filling have to open up somewhere, and it's not just NBA departures and graduations

I'm not sure that is zero sum in the context of this conversation - used in the trading/market sense, zero sum means for every loss, there is a gain. There is no "departing". But I here what you're saying - an indefinite amount of roster spots. That, to me, merely suggests that the system is Top Programs take the best "ready" talent, allowing the mid majors to raise the next tier until they're ready. To me, this doesn't necessarily tell me this system isn't keeping a big delta between the two groups. Perhaps there is the off chance a mid major sees leaps in some kids while also getting a 4 star that shines unsuspectingly, and lightning strikes. That to me feels like a very low probability though.

If you're any good at a mid major, you're portaling. So then those mid majors have to get lucky enough where they either:

Grab a HS kid that sneaks up
Sees multiple hold overs experience leaps that weren't seen in the previous year
Sneak a portal transfer in that exceeds expectations

Basically they have to have multiple factors hit at once, unsuspectingly. Where top programs can more directly just go grab the best, ready to contribute players with much higher probability.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

I need a bit of clarity on what the actual argument is so I will ask @RuffRuff this question:

Are you claiming that a very high seed (one or two) will be needed to be able to make a run at a title or are you claiming that a school needs to be one of the better programs in a P level conference to be able to make a run at the title?

I spent most of the time on this thread believing that it was the former, but now it seems that the latter is what you are asserting.

 

[navery12]

I'm not sure that is zero sum in the context of this conversation - used in the trading/market sense, zero sum means for every loss, there is a gain. There is no "departing". But I here what you're saying - an indefinite amount of roster spots. That, to me, merely suggests that the system is Top Programs take the best "ready" talent, allowing the mid majors to raise the next tier until they're ready. To me, this doesn't necessarily tell me this system isn't keeping a big delta between the two groups. Perhaps there is the off chance a mid major sees leaps in some kids while also getting a 4 star that shines unsuspectingly, and lightning strikes. That to me feels like a very low probability though.

If you're any good at a mid major, you're portaling. So then those mid majors have to get lucky enough where they either:

Grab a HS kid that sneaks up
Sees multiple hold overs experience leaps that weren't seen in the previous year
Sneak a portal transfer in that exceeds expectations

Basically they have to have multiple factors hit at once, unsuspectingly. Where top programs can more directly just go grab the best, ready to contribute players with much higher probability.

It's definitely a lot harder, and is going to take some luck to keep happening, I just don't think the dream of Cinderellas is dead. The delta is definitely still big between the top programs and mid-majors, it's just always been big.

It's easy to focus on the negative impact for mid majors that they're losing their stars to top programs, but there's also new avenues opening up to them as well. HS recruits are prioritizing playing time more than ever, and that's going to be a big benefit for mid majors. They might lose the star junior to UConn, but they also might have 3-4 really talented freshman and sophomores that previously would have been sitting on the bench at UConn, Duke, and Kentucky for 2 years waiting their turn as upperclassmen.

Maybe we never see another mid major make a run again, but that seems like a premature statement to make given what we're seeing play out in where the talent is choosing to play.

 

[superjohn]

It's definitely a lot harder, and is going to take some luck to keep happening, I just don't think the dream of Cinderellas is dead. The delta is definitely still big between the top programs and mid-majors, it's just always been big.

It's easy to focus on the negative impact for mid majors that they're losing their stars to top programs, but there's also new avenues opening up to them as well. HS recruits are prioritizing playing time more than ever, and that's going to be a big benefit for mid majors. They might lose the star junior to UConn, but they also might have 3-4 really talented freshman and sophomores that previously would have been sitting on the bench at UConn, Duke, and Kentucky for 2 years waiting their turn as upperclassmen.

Maybe we never see another mid major make a run again, but that seems like a premature statement to make given what we're seeing play out in where the talent is choosing to play.

There's less and less good mid-majors because the mega conferences have absorbed those programs and the good and elite mid-major players now jump to the power conference teams but that leaves power conference players who weren't cutting it or really weren't given a chance to drop down to the mid-majors and 4 star high school recruits are going to mid-majors now when they all would've gone to power conference schools in the past. So far for 2026 recruits VCU has two 4 star high school players coming in as does Siena. Liberty, Harvard, Hofstra, Louisiana, Saint Mary's, High Point, FAU, East Carolina, St. Louis, Nevada, George Mason also have one each. And of course Gonzaga and Memphis have some.

 

[ctchamps]

I need a bit of clarity on what the actual argument is so I will ask @RuffRuff this question:

Are you claiming that a very high seed (one or two) will be needed to be able to make a run at a title or are you claiming that a school needs to be one of the better programs in a P level conference to be able to make a run at the title?

I spent most of the time on this thread believing that it was the former, but now it seems that the latter is what you are asserting.

I got the impression it's the latter. He feels that only P conferences will make the final four and made a statement that probably the elite eight.

 

[NJHusky]

It's definitely a lot harder, and is going to take some luck to keep happening, I just don't think the dream of Cinderellas is dead. The delta is definitely still big between the top programs and mid-majors, it's just always been big.

It's easy to focus on the negative impact for mid majors that they're losing their stars to top programs, but there's also new avenues opening up to them as well. HS recruits are prioritizing playing time more than ever, and that's going to be a big benefit for mid majors. They might lose the star junior to UConn, but they also might have 3-4 really talented freshman and sophomores that previously would have been sitting on the bench at UConn, Duke, and Kentucky for 2 years waiting their turn as upperclassmen.

Maybe we never see another mid major make a run again, but that seems like a premature statement to make given what we're seeing play out in where the talent is choosing to play.

What you’re neglecting is that the junior leaving is a better player than the 4 star coming in….or the top program would have taken the 4 star. The reason the 4 star is going to the mid major is because the big boys don’t want them. The top Hs guys are still going to top programs.

I don’t see how you slice this any other way than a concentration of talent at the schools with the most money.

If the mid majors want to compete, they need a sugar daddy. AJD didn’t go to BYU because of its rich basketball history

We are very fortunate that we have adequate NIL, history and best staff in the biz.

 

[KingAG]

He’s been allowed to hijack the point. The point was if mid majors can make final 4 runs, it’s asinine to bet that in the next 10 years no other BE team will make an Elite 8. Speaking in such certainty about a single elimination tournament is a bad practice

 

[navery12]

What you’re neglecting is that the junior leaving is a better player than the 4 star coming in….or the top program would have taken the 4 star. The reason the 4 star is going to the mid major is because the big boys don’t want them. The top Hs guys are still going to top programs.

I don’t see how you slice this any other way than a concentration of talent at the schools with the most money.

If the mid majors want to compete, they need a sugar daddy. AJD didn’t go to BYU because of its rich basketball history

We are very fortunate that we have adequate NIL, history and best staff in the biz.

I'm not neglecting that at all, all I'm saying is there are way more talented players than there are roster spots at the top schools. Mid-majors losing their best players does need to equal mid-majors will have no good players.

Their may not be as many mid major stars showing up in March Madness, but that doesn't mean there will never be another Cinderella team. Want to tell me there's no Steph Curry or Jimmer Fredette because they'd transfer to Duke now, I agree. But I am going to vehemently disagree with the mid major teams can't put together a talented balanced roster anymore.

Akron is possibly the best mid major team in the country this year. They're led by 2 4th year seniors who spent their entire career at Akron, have a couple of other 4th and 5th year guys including an Ohio State transfer. And this is coming off a successful season last year where they got 4 P5 transfers and have kept a great mid major coach in John Groce

 

[NJHusky]

I'm not neglecting that at all, all I'm saying is there are way more talented players than there are roster spots at the top schools. Mid-majors losing their best players does need to equal mid-majors will have no good players.

Their may not be as many mid major stars showing up in March Madness, but that doesn't mean there will never be another Cinderella team. Want to tell me there's no Steph Curry or Jimmer Fredette because they'd transfer to Duke now, I agree. But I am going to vehemently disagree with the mid major teams can't put together a talented balanced roster anymore.

Akron is possibly the best mid major team in the country this year. They're led by 2 4th year seniors who spent their entire career at Akron, have a couple of other 4th and 5th year guys including an Ohio State transfer. And this is coming off a successful season last year where they got 4 P5 transfers and have kept a great mid major coach in John Groce

good points...I'm not suggesting there will NEVER be another cinderalla...just that it's going to be MUCH MUCH harder for it to happen. 4* are good players, but they are generally not elite players. IF the Ohio St transfer was a top player, he would have stayed or transferred UP to a top 10 school.

I'm willing to wager Akron doesn't make the elite 8, let alone the FF

 

[navery12]

good points...I'm not suggesting there will NEVER be another cinderalla...just that it's going to be MUCH MUCH harder for it to happen. 4* are good players, but they are generally not elite players. IF the Ohio St transfer was a top player, he would have stayed or transferred UP to a top 10 school.

I'm willing to wager Akron doesn't make the elite 8, let alone the FF

No argument there that it might be harder, the discussion started by saying it'll NEVER happen again which is what I found to be insane. I think you're missing my point about the examples of the Ohio State transfer, and guys like that who are nobodies at the P5 level. They're now able to move down and dominate at a level closer to their abilities. And then in a 1 game elimination tournament who knows what happens.

And I agree the odds are Akron doesn't make a Final Four or Elite Eight, that's what makes them a Cinderella story if it happens lol

 

[RuffRuff]

He’s been allowed to hijack the point. The point was if mid majors can make final 4 runs, it’s asinine to bet that in the next 10 years no other BE team will make an Elite 8. Speaking in such certainty about a single elimination tournament is a bad practice

I'm not certain, but I'd be surprised. So much momentum pointing in the other direction, and I'm not sure which coach with longevity has the chops to do it. Pitino and this portal philosophy only has so many legs, McDermott is on the brink of retirement. Shaka is allergic to the portal. Those would be the current top 3. Cooley seems like he's cashed in. The other programs have never really made runs in recent times:

SHU
Xavier
PC
Butler
Depaul?

Nova may be the first team to really pull something together. If you're a top portal player or HS recruit, why are you selecting any of these programs? Other than Nova.

How many NBA prospects are coming out of the BE this year in any mocks you see? Beyond Uconn, I see Zubi only. There is a general talent crisis in the BE.

Which of the current coaches have the chops to turn it around and make a run?

 

[superjohn]

If you're a top portal player or HS recruit, why are you selecting any of these programs? Other than Nova.

Same reason they choose other power basketball conference teams, money and opportunity.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

I got the impression it's the latter. He feels that only P conferences will make the final four and made a statement that probably the elite eight.

You could be correct, but I want @RuffRuff to definitively answer.

 

[RuffRuff]

good points...I'm not suggesting there will NEVER be another cinderalla...just that it's going to be MUCH MUCH harder for it to happen. 4* are good players, but they are generally not elite players. IF the Ohio St transfer was a top player, he would have stayed or transferred UP to a top 10 school.

I'm willing to wager Akron doesn't make the elite 8, let alone the FF

Totally - maybe lightning strikes somewhere. The rationale around mid majors still having the ability to regularly be threats is leaky.

Not only was there only one "cinderella" to make the round of 32 last year, but most of the mid majors got beaten handily in the first round.

I think on the go forward there is a good chance the Elite 8/Final 4 is going to be made up regularly of about 20 schools (P4 w/$ & Uconn, & Zags). If you look at the top 20 this year, it's pretty much that group (minus Vandy & Nebraska, plus Indiana & UCLA).

Back in the day, you'd see a few MM's hit the Top 25. These days very little. The first one even getting votes is at 34, Miami of Ohio.

NCAA College Basketball Rankings: AP Top 25 Basketball Poll

The official page for the AP Top 25 men's college basketball poll. Keep up to date and view the latest NCAA men's basketball ranking updates each week for the 2025-26 season.

apnews.com

 

[NJHusky]

No argument there that it might be harder, the discussion started by saying it'll NEVER happen again which is what I found to be insane. I think you're missing my point about the examples of the Ohio State transfer, and guys like that who are nobodies at the P5 level. They're now able to move down and dominate at a level closer to their abilities. And then in a 1 game elimination tournament who knows what happens.

And I agree the odds are Akron doesn't make a Final Four or Elite Eight, that's what makes them a Cinderella story if it happens lol

I don’t know who the oh st player was, but based on guys that transfered from UConn, no one is dominating…and they were on a team that won the title. I doubt top players are transferring to a school like Akron.

It’s not like transferring from oh st football to an fcs school. Akron is still playing top tier teams in the tournament.

 

[navery12]

I don’t know who the oh st player was, but based on guys that transfered from UConn, no one is dominating…and they were on a team that won the title. I doubt top players are transferring to a school like Akron.

It’s not like transferring from oh st football to an fcs school. Akron is still playing top tier teams in the tournament.

Evan Mahaffey who spent 1 year at Penn State and 2 years at Ohio State and averaged 3 points and 3 rebounds a game over 102 games. He's now at Akron and averaging 10 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists a game. Transferred in to play with his brother who is a redshirt freshman.

Not a top player but was just an example to prove my point that when Akron does lose a player like Nate Johnson from last year's team who transferred up to Kansas State after 3 years and a great junior season at Akron, there was a P5 guy not getting opportunities ready to move down and put up bigger numbers at the MAC level for them. And they were able to retain their 2 best players on this year's team for all 4 years so now have a really nice core to potentially make a run.

 

[Scottobot]

Just noticed St Johns lost to Kentucky. What a complete disaster for their program. With a mediocre Big East record they might not make tournament

 

[KingAG]

I'm not certain, but I'd be surprised. So much momentum pointing in the other direction, and I'm not sure which coach with longevity has the chops to do it. Pitino and this portal philosophy only has so many legs, McDermott is on the brink of retirement. Shaka is allergic to the portal. Those would be the current top 3. Cooley seems like he's cashed in. The other programs have never really made runs in recent times:

SHU
Xavier
PC
Butler
Depaul?

Nova may be the first team to really pull something together. If you're a top portal player or HS recruit, why are you selecting any of these programs? Other than Nova.

How many NBA prospects are coming out of the BE this year in any mocks you see? Beyond Uconn, I see Zubi only. There is a general talent crisis in the BE.

Which of the current coaches have the chops to turn it around and make a run?

I think you’re underestimating how long 10 years is.

10 years ago Kevin Ollie was coming off of a natty at UConn.

That seems like 3 lifetimes ago.

The program was decimated and brought back to prominence all in that time span.

 

[RuffRuff]

I think you’re underestimating how long 10 years is.

10 years ago Kevin Ollie was coming off of a natty at UConn.

That seems like 3 lifetimes ago.

The program was decimated and brought back to prominence all in that time span.

Big difference is back then the structure was fixed. I suppose within 10 years if they remove the portal and/or make it a two year contract, or limit NIL, things can change. Doubtful. If anything it will go further in the entrepreneurial direction making it even harder for the small mouths. My view is based on micro and macro trends.

 

[KingAG]

Big difference is back then the structure was fixed. I suppose within 10 years if they remove the portal and/or make it a two year contract, or limit NIL, things can change. Doubtful. If anything it will go further in the entrepreneurial direction making it even harder for the small mouths. My view is based on micro and macro trends.

If your worst prognostication came true, I’d still bet a big east teams lucks into an elite 8. It’s just statistically improbable that they won’t.