Feb 5th Metrics | The Boneyard

Feb 5th Metrics

The computers definitely love us and those wins over Alabama and Iowa State will be huge as long as we can take care of business. I saw on NET we moved from 8th to 7th after yesterdays win. Big week coming for our Huskies. I hope the XL Center is nice and LOUD Tuesday night. I will be there +3. !!!!!
 
If we just hadn’t collapsed against St Johns and Seton Hall we would be 20-4, ranked in the top 10, with a legit shot at the 1 seed in the East. 18-6 is still a very good record, it just seems extremely disappointing after the start we had.

If we only lose 2 more games the rest of the way, we control our own destiny for a 3 seed. Winning the BET would get us there.
 
aburks41 said:
If we just hadn’t collapsed against St Johns and Seton Hall we would be 20-4, ranked in the top 10, with a legit shot at the 1 seed in the East. 18-6 is still a very good record, it just seems extremely disappointing after the start we had.

If we only lose 2 more games the rest of the way, we control our own destiny for a 3 seed. Winning the BET would get us there.
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Maybe even an outside shot of a 2. But I agree 3 is most likely the best scenario.
 
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I really only care about the Carlisle/Squam beta rankings. Most accurate by far to date.
 
If the NCAAT was tomorrow I don't think UConn gets a three seed, but UConn would be solidly in the tournament. NET will probably be a fantastic indicator of who gets in the tournament, but I don't think seeding will be based solely on NET, or any computer metric.

If the NCAAT was tomorrow UConn is probably a 4-5 seed IMO. UConn's OOC looks really good. I think UConn could actually get a NCAAT seed than BET seed depending how they play the last 7 games and in the BET.
 
caw said:
If the NCAAT was tomorrow I don't think UConn gets a three seed, but UConn would be solidly in the tournament. NET will probably be a fantastic indicator of who gets in the tournament, but I don't think seeding will be based solely on NET, or any computer metric.

If the NCAAT was tomorrow UConn is probably a 4-5 seed IMO. UConn's OOC looks really good. I think UConn could actually get a NCAAT seed than BET seed depending how they play the last 7 games and in the BET.
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If you actually look at other resumes you’d have a hard time finding 10-12 teams that deserve to be ahead of us
 
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Hurleyman216 said:
If you actually look at other resumes you’d have a hard time finding 10-12 teams that deserve to be ahead of us
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WAB and SOR are the two most commonly used resume rankings. We're 19th and 16th respectively, which as he said puts us on the 4/5 line.
 
auror said:
WAB and SOR are the two most commonly used resume rankings. We're 19th and 16th respectively, which as he said puts us on the 4/5 line.
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Most commonly used rankings by the committee for seeding?
 
BFieldHusky said:
Maybe even an outside shot of a 2. But I agree 3 is most likely the best scenario.
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We’ll need to do some work to get to the 3 line but it’s possible. Every season is different but I quickly checked last year’s 3 seeds—they all had between 7 and 9 losses. All were ranked between 6 and 19 in the final AP poll. For some reason, historical NET rankings aren’t easy to find.

I think If we went 2-1 in the big 3 remaining games, won every other regular season game, and got to the BET final we could snag a 3. But anything short of that, probably not. Road games @ St John’s and @ Nova will be tricky too lol
 
aburks41 said:
If we just hadn’t collapsed against St Johns and Seton Hall we would be 20-4, ranked in the top 10, with a legit shot at the 1 seed in the East. 18-6 is still a very good record, it just seems extremely disappointing after the start we had.

If we only lose 2 more games the rest of the way, we control our own destiny for a 3 seed. Winning the BET would get us there.
Expand ...
Yeah that St. John’s loss killed us but we didn’t deserve it. Can’t lose at home as a 15 point fave. The real killer was the seton hall game. We should of won that one. But yea, take those 2 games out and we are prolly top 10 still. Wasn’t impressed by yesterdays win at all. But a dub is a dub at least we showed we can win a close game
 
To get to the 3 lines I think the only remaining regular season game we can lose is at Creighton. Then we have to at least make the semis in the BET.
 
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Hi-Low said:
Are you familiar with Creighton?
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The top 4 teams are Xavier, PC, Marquette and Creighton
UConn should have at least a 4-4 record in these 8 games
What are the chances???????
 
I came back to this board for the first time in probably a decade this year. I thought there would be reason to read what the fans were saying. 14-0 seems like it never happened. Watching this team that team struggling to beat a one win conference team showed me all I needed to know. We are the same team we have been the last two years. We have 7 games left in the regular season it will be hard to finish 4-3 22-9.
 
gtcam said:
The top 4 teams are Xavier, PC, Marquette and Creighton
UConn should have at least a 4-4 record in these 8 games
What are the chances???????
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Why dwell on losses??????

Have 3 games left against against the top 4 & BE tourney so we'll see what happens.
 
HooperScooper said:
They already beat Creighton. They have Marquette and PC at home coming up. And at Creighton again. So there are 3 more chances to do that.
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1-5 against those 3 teams would suck . And we are 0-2 vs X . It’s time to do better against league top. .500 should be realistic and not asking for too much ( 4-4 against top 4) problem is we’ve dug ourselves a big hole to even do that. It’s good two are home.
 
Vuce said:
The computers definitely love us and those wins over Alabama and Iowa State will be huge as long as we can take care of business. I saw on NET we moved from 8th to 7th after yesterdays win. Big week coming for our Huskies. I hope the XL Center is nice and LOUD Tuesday night. I will be there +3. !!!!!
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Time for Hartford to show up. Tuesday is mas importante.
 
Can’t play like yesterday and go 4-3 need better from mostly everyone. I mean 12-24 from 3 and we nipped a team that missed a lay up and a put back in the last couple minutes.

Getting closer to who they can be but for now sign me up for 4-3 I will take it and run. Depending on how many they win in the BE tourney expect a 4/5 seed.

Let’s see Tuesday is huge for so many reasons.
 
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auror said:
WAB and SOR are the two most commonly used resume rankings. We're 19th and 16th respectively, which as he said puts us on the 4/5 line.
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You post a lot of good stats on here, but this is 100% false. The NCAA specifically came up with their NET Ratings 5 years ago as the primary metric for seeding. It’s not the only thing they use, but it is the first thing they look at to start placing teams in brackets. If you go to their website and read through their seeding process, the only actual metric they talk about is NET.
 
August_West said:
1-5 against those 3 teams would suck . And we are 0-2 vs X . It’s time to do better against league top. .500 should be realistic and not asking for too much ( 4-4 against top 4) problem is we’ve dug ourselves a big hole to even do that. It’s good two are home.
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Agreed but We can still finish 4-4 against the top 4. the only game we won’t be favored in is at Creighton, where Nova almost beat them last night.
 
Hurleyman216 said:
You post a lot of good stats on here, but this is 100% false. The NCAA specifically came up with their NET Ratings 5 years ago as the primary metric for seeding. It’s not the only thing they use, but it is the first thing they look at to start placing teams in brackets. If you go to their website and read through their seeding process, the only actual metric they talk about is NET.
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Apologies, but the NET isn't a pure "resume metric". My wording was about the specific type of metric (resume or predictive). The NET is a hybrid metric, part predictive and part resume. Not as good as pure metrics at either aspect, but a compromise if you will. So if we want to rank resumes, the actual resume metrics are the best choice, not the NET.

The SOR and KPI are the "resume metrics" on the actual committee member team sheets they're given (they also have BPI, KenPom, and Sagarin for predictive metrics). But I prefer WAB over KPI because it measures things a little different, and I see it cited much more often in discussions, because it is simple, transparent, and useful. We're 16 in SOR, 26 in KPI, and 19th in the Torvik version of WAB.

The committee members can individually look at any metric they like. But a pretty comprehensive study of some of their past choices reveals a pretty equal importance between predictive metrics and resume metrics for seeding through the first 9 seedlines. After that, it's much more about resume metrics for the bubble.

Averaging our predictive and resume gets us a 4 seed right now.
 
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bendm said:
Agreed but We can still finish 4-4 against the top 4. the only game we won’t be favored in is at Creighton, where Nova almost beat them last night.
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Yup we can by taking all 3.
 
auror said:
Apologies, but the NET isn't a pure "resume metric". My wording was about the specific type of metric (resume or predictive). The NET is a hybrid metric, part predictive and part resume. Not as good as pure metrics at either aspect, but a compromise if you will. So if we want to rank resumes, the actual resume metrics are the best choice, not the NET.

The SOR and KPI are the "resume metrics" on the actual committee member team sheets they're given (they also have BPI, KenPom, and Sagarin for predictive metrics). But I prefer WAB over KPI because it measures things a little different, and I see it cited much more often in discussions, because it is simple, transparent, and useful. We're 16 in SOR, 26 in KPI, and 19th in the Torvik version of WAB.

The committee members can individually look at any metric they like. But a pretty comprehensive study of some of their past choices reveals a pretty equal importance between predictive metrics and resume metrics for seeding through the first 9 seedlines. After that, it's much more about resume metrics for the bubble.

Averaging our predictive and resume gets us a 4 seed right now.
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Regardless of the other metrics used, the NET is by far the most important. My brother in-law was actually on the selection committee a few years ago. Yes, other metrics are used, and it is very dependent on the committee member. Each member ranks to teams so they could choose to ignore all metrics, but most don’t. I agree that there are a few other metrics used but NET carries a lot of weight. Our other advanced metrics are pretty good as well which is why if the season ended today we would be a 3 seed (not a 5 seed that most bracket predictors have us at). Most guys like Lunardi literally take the AP rankings to predict their bracket which is meaningless. Our advanced metrics say we’re better than our record
 
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