Feb 5th Metrics

[bendm]

1-5 against those 3 teams would suck . And we are 0-2 vs X . It’s time to do better against league top. .500 should be realistic and not asking for too much ( 4-4 against top 4) problem is we’ve dug ourselves a big hole to even do that. It’s good two are home.

Agreed but We can still finish 4-4 against the top 4. the only game we won’t be favored in is at Creighton, where Nova almost beat them last night.

 

[auror]

You post a lot of good stats on here, but this is 100% false. The NCAA specifically came up with their NET Ratings 5 years ago as the primary metric for seeding. It’s not the only thing they use, but it is the first thing they look at to start placing teams in brackets. If you go to their website and read through their seeding process, the only actual metric they talk about is NET.

Apologies, but the NET isn't a pure "resume metric". My wording was about the specific type of metric (resume or predictive). The NET is a hybrid metric, part predictive and part resume. Not as good as pure metrics at either aspect, but a compromise if you will. So if we want to rank resumes, the actual resume metrics are the best choice, not the NET.

The SOR and KPI are the "resume metrics" on the actual committee member team sheets they're given (they also have BPI, KenPom, and Sagarin for predictive metrics). But I prefer WAB over KPI because it measures things a little different, and I see it cited much more often in discussions, because it is simple, transparent, and useful. We're 16 in SOR, 26 in KPI, and 19th in the Torvik version of WAB.

The committee members can individually look at any metric they like. But a pretty comprehensive study of some of their past choices reveals a pretty equal importance between predictive metrics and resume metrics for seeding through the first 9 seedlines. After that, it's much more about resume metrics for the bubble.

Averaging our predictive and resume gets us a 4 seed right now.

 

[August_West]

Agreed but We can still finish 4-4 against the top 4. the only game we won’t be favored in is at Creighton, where Nova almost beat them last night.

Yup we can by taking all 3.

 

[Hurleyman216]

Apologies, but the NET isn't a pure "resume metric". My wording was about the specific type of metric (resume or predictive). The NET is a hybrid metric, part predictive and part resume. Not as good as pure metrics at either aspect, but a compromise if you will. So if we want to rank resumes, the actual resume metrics are the best choice, not the NET.

The SOR and KPI are the "resume metrics" on the actual committee member team sheets they're given (they also have BPI, KenPom, and Sagarin for predictive metrics). But I prefer WAB over KPI because it measures things a little different, and I see it cited much more often in discussions, because it is simple, transparent, and useful. We're 16 in SOR, 26 in KPI, and 19th in the Torvik version of WAB.

The committee members can individually look at any metric they like. But a pretty comprehensive study of some of their past choices reveals a pretty equal importance between predictive metrics and resume metrics for seeding through the first 9 seedlines. After that, it's much more about resume metrics for the bubble.

Averaging our predictive and resume gets us a 4 seed right now.

Regardless of the other metrics used, the NET is by far the most important. My brother in-law was actually on the selection committee a few years ago. Yes, other metrics are used, and it is very dependent on the committee member. Each member ranks to teams so they could choose to ignore all metrics, but most don’t. I agree that there are a few other metrics used but NET carries a lot of weight. Our other advanced metrics are pretty good as well which is why if the season ended today we would be a 3 seed (not a 5 seed that most bracket predictors have us at). Most guys like Lunardi literally take the AP rankings to predict their bracket which is meaningless. Our advanced metrics say we’re better than our record

 

[AntG168]

How about beating any of the other BE NCAA bound teams?

Creighton count?

 

[caw]

If you actually look at other resumes you’d have a hard time finding 10-12 teams that deserve to be ahead of us

Purdue, Zona, Bama, KU
Texas, X, KSU, UCLA
Houston, Tennessee, TCU, St Mary’s
Zags, UVA, UConn, IU
Baylor, ISU, Marquette, PC

Not saying those all have definite better resumes but those are the groups as I see it right now looking at the data. Tennessee and Houston have weaker data for threes but you could argue Zags, St Mary’s, etc up a line or two instead of UConn. The SJU loss is the anchor pulling UConn down a spot or two from the three IMO.

 

[Hurleyman216]

Purdue, Zona, Bama, KU
Texas, X, KSU, UCLA
Houston, Tennessee, TCU, St Mary’s
Zags, UVA, UConn, IU
Baylor, ISU, Marquette, PC

Not saying those all have definite better resumes but those are the groups as I see it right now looking at the data. Tennessee and Houston have weaker data for threes but you could argue Zags, St Mary’s, etc up a line or two instead of UConn. The SJU loss is the anchor pulling UConn down a spot or two from the three IMO.

No way is KU a 1 seed. They’re like 5th or 6th in their conference right now

 

[wheelerdog]

If you actually look at other resumes you’d have a hard time finding 10-12 teams that deserve to be ahead of us

This.

 

[wheelerdog]

Keep an eye on Oregon and Oklahoma State. Could be upgrades to Q1 wins

 

[PAHusky]

If we want a three seed we can lose maybe 2 games max the rest of the season, including the BET.

If we hold serve - lose to the teams we should, win a few more, get to the semis in the BE - we’re probably a 4 more likely a 5.

If we bottom out I think we’re looking at a 7 - 9

 

[SubbaBub]

We are 1-4 vs the top 4 BE teams. If we don't win tbese 3 games, the NET rankings will have us a 7-8. If we don't pile up a few more in the BET we will be 9-10.

If we win them all we will be a 2. Point is, these rankings don't mean jack. We have some great OOC wins that won't matter if we can't beat decent BE teams. Go do that. It's not like these games won't be played. Focus.

 

[caw]

No way is KU a 1 seed. They’re like 5th or 6th in their conference right now

Regardless, ahead of UConn. Not going to argue a point off the main. Don’t move the line.

 

[UCLJ0211]

Maybe even an outside shot of a 2. But I agree 3 is most likely the best scenario.

Agreed. If we finish something like 26-8 and win the BET we may play ourselves to a 2 seed. I would imagine our NET/KenPom, etc. would stay top 5-6, so I don’t know how we wouldn’t be considered for a 2 seed at that point. I guess it also depends who we beat and who the 2 losses are to.

 

[CTBasketball]

Time for Hartford to show up. Tuesday is mas importante.

There will be two certainties:

1. I will drink a lot of beer in Hartford.


2.

 

[jibsey]

We just beat DePaul and Georgetown, but I can see that fan confidence is returning so my question is this: can we beat a good BE team on the road?

 

[navery12]

We just beat DePaul and Georgetown, but I can see that fan confidence is returning so my question is this: can we beat a good BE team on the road?

Yes

 

[jibsey]

Yes

Thank you. Who?

 

[navery12]

Thank you. Who?

Creighton and Villanova

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

I came back to this board for the first time in probably a decade this year. I thought there would be reason to read what the fans were saying. 14-0 seems like it never happened. Watching this team that team struggling to beat a one win conference team showed me all I needed to know. We are the same team we have been the last two years. We have 7 games left in the regular season it will be hard to finish 4-3 22-9.

Cool, check back in in another ten years.

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

Can’t play like yesterday and go 4-3 need better from mostly everyone. I mean 12-24 from 3 and we nipped a team that missed a lay up and a put back in the last couple minutes.

Getting closer to who they can be but for now sign me up for 4-3 I will take it and run. Depending on how many they win in the BE tourney expect a 4/5 seed.

Let’s see Tuesday is huge for so many reasons.

I'm interested in the coaches and players being so fully focused on one game at a time.

It seems foolish at this point for me to think that there could be a shift in fans who visit here daily and seem so resistant to this orientation. Some seem hostile to the notion, or defensive in response to the suggestion of it.

Can't play, re-play, or change any of the old, already-played games any more. They completed, past, over, and gone.

The future games aren't here yet. As scheduled, they will only be played...

One
Game.
At.
A.
Time.

 

[CL82]

I came back to this board for the first time in probably a decade this year. I thought there would be reason to read what the fans were saying. 14-0 seems like it never happened. Watching this team that team struggling to beat a one win conference team showed me all I needed to know. We are the same team we have been the last two years. We have 7 games left in the regular season it will be hard to finish 4-3 22-9.

Welcome back to the board! We missed your optimism and unbridled enthusiasm.

 

[REB1094]

If the players start thinking about what seed they’re going to get, and they play like they’ve played for the last month, then I think we win 3-5 more games this season including the BET

One game at a time. Every game is your championship game at this point. UConn is reeling but not even close to out. Just one game at a time

 

[UConntLose]

I think Huskies and Creighton will be two of the most dangerous teams come March. They both have dealt with a ton of adversity this year, and they will be much better for it when it matters. It would not surprise me one bit if both teams are in the Final Four.

I know people will point to our struggles against G'town and call me out of my mind, but that Hoya team has lots of talent in Spears, Murray and Wahab. If they had a Coach who knew how to coach, that team could easily be in contention for the BIG EAST.

I think we are going to see the Huskies piece it all together now that Newton has established himself as a legitimate threat and the veterans - i.e. AJax, Sanogo and Hawkins - on the team now know how he likes to play. We will take care of Marquette, but Saturday is going to be a tough, tall task (not expecting a win, just hoping for a confidence boosting game like the women just went through with South Carolina).

 

[husky429]

I think Huskies and Creighton will be two of the most dangerous teams come March. They both have dealt with a ton of adversity this year, and they will be much better for it when it matters. It would not surprise me one bit if both teams are in the Final Four.

I know people will point to our struggles against G'town and call me out of my mind, but that Hoya team has lots of talent in Spears, Murray and Wahab. If they had a Coach who knew how to coach, that team could easily be in contention for the BIG EAST.

I think we are going to see the Huskies piece it all together now that Newton has established himself as a legitimate threat and the veterans - i.e. AJax, Sanogo and Hawkins - on the team now know how he likes to play. We will take care of Marquette, but Saturday is going to be a tough, tall task (not expecting a win, just hoping for a confidence boosting game like the women just went through with South Carolina).

Georgetown is a much better team than we give them credit for. They've held very good teams close. 3 or 4 guys on that roster I would be happy to recruit in the portal. Their issue is coaching... too many bad shots and no cohesion on defense.