Expansion Study

[BamaCoug]

Sup Huskies?!?

I'm actually the creator of this spreadsheet and SEVERAL other documents (pursue links to them all here http://goo.gl/ppGJIF or here Media Tweets by Jeffrey Fuller (@jjfuller72) | Twitter )

I tried to include EVERY relevant factor I could think of. Some were more more relevant than others for sure and I tried to weight things really lightly that lacked complete data and things that were less important.

Poking holes in things here and there are fine, but you CANNOT look at the body of evidence I present and conclude anything but BYU being more P5ish than a decent portion of the P5 itself.

UConn and BYU have the best resumes but UConn has an even worse Geography than BYU and lacks the football strength that usually drives expansion.

Anyways, heres to hoping the Big12 actually DOES expand and that it's the BYU Cougars and the UConn Huskies.

PS ... I came up to our game there in Hartford a couple years back and really enjoyed the visit. Got some nice fans up there!

 

[Seaa Blue]

UConn and BYU have the best resumes but UConn has an even worse Geography than BYU and lacks the football strength that usually drives expansion.

Well, then there's Rutgers and Maryland (football -wise).

Why do you say UConn "has an even worse Geography"?

 

[4in16]

Sup Huskies?!?

I'm actually the creator of this spreadsheet and SEVERAL other documents (pursue links to them all here http:// /ppGJIF or here Media Tweets by Jeffrey Fuller (@jjfuller72) | Twitter )

I tried to include EVERY relevant factor I could think of. Some were more more relevant than others for sure and I tried to weight things really lightly that lacked complete data and things that were less important.

Poking holes in things here and there are fine, but you CANNOT look at the body of evidence I present and conclude anything but BYU being more P5ish than a decent portion of the P5 itself.

UConn and BYU have the best resumes but UConn has an even worse Geography than BYU and lacks the football strength that usually drives expansion.

Anyways, heres to hoping the Big12 actually DOES expand and that it's the BYU Cougars and the UConn Huskies.

PS ... I came up to our game there in Hartford a couple years back and really enjoyed the visit. Got some nice fans up there!

Worse geography? BYU is in the Mountain Time Zone and UConn is EST, a time zone occupied by the Big 12 already. Yes they'd be an outlier but they are also currently in a conference with 2 teams in Texas and 1 in Oklahoma and 1 in Louisiana. Also if Big 12 decides to expand solely based on football strength then they clearly haven't learned from the B1G. UConn's location also makes them desirable in this instance because of the densely populated markets which bring a lot more money to a potential Big 12 network. If adding Cincy, adding another eastern team like UConn only makes more sense.

 

[BamaCoug]

Well, then there's Rutgers and Maryland (football -wise).

Why do you say UConn "has an even worse Geography"?

Average distance to current Big12 schools: BYU 970mi, UConn 1324mi. Excluding WVU (the heart of the original members schools/conf) the difference is much bigger ... 892mi for BYU, vs 1423mi for UConn. If people are complaining about having to go all the way to WVU already, do they want to go that much further?

 

[BamaCoug]

AND SLC is a very large airport hub with many direct flights from all over the nation. It's among the biggest hubs for Delta. (BYU Campus just a 40 min drive from there ... with a landing strip in Provo able to handle any size charter plane to boot).

 

[dwalks93]

Sup Huskies?!?

UConn and BYU have the best resumes but UConn has an even worse Geography than BYU and lacks the football strength that usually drives expansion.

Anyways, heres to hoping the Big12 actually DOES expand and that it's the BYU Cougars and the UConn Huskies.

Welcome to the board, thanks for posting...

BYU has a very strong program and good nationwide fan base. Personally I think they deserve to be a P5 program (by the numbers they already are). I think BYU's biggest potential issues for the Big12 are a potential culture clash and lack of Sunday scheduling. By all other metrics they are more than a match.

Clearly you are a smart guy so you know conference expansion is not about geography (at least not in terms of close proximity) nor football strength. Expansion is about money. Football makes more money than others sports so football matters more but, at the end of the day, it is money. If you disagree with this statement ask yourself who has had a better football record the last decade, UT or TCU. Which program is more valuable? Its not football, its money.

The Big12's problem is not football strength. It is a small population base with a limited geographic appeal. Adding UConn helps that and could be a core piece for a Big12 network on the east coast. The Big12 needs to move east if it wants to survive. That does not mean BYU is not a value add but in this case UConn's geography helps more.

Distance and football strength are just straw man arguments. If the Big12 expands it will be with the programs which help build a network and bring in the most money. And yes that is a big "IF."

Hopefully both our schools will be added. Again, thanks for posting.

 

[Fishy]

Given the time zone issue and the fact that we're in the northeast and not on a san

AND SLC is a very large airport hub with many direct flights from all over the nation. It's among the biggest hubs for Delta. (BYU Campus just a 40 min drive from there ... with a landing strip in Provo able to handle any size charter plane to boot).

Eh.

Once you're on a plane, you're on a plane.

I've been to Provo - it's 50 miles from the airport in Salt Lake City.

Lovely area, great campus. But it's no more convenient geographically than UConn - and perhaps the Big 12 might consider the additional time zone and consider BYU less convenient.

Both schools have strong suits, but I'm going to guess than geography isn't going to be a hole card for either one.

 

[Dooley]

Sup Huskies?!?

I'm actually the creator of this spreadsheet and SEVERAL other documents (pursue links to them all here http:// /ppGJIF or here Media Tweets by Jeffrey Fuller (@jjfuller72) | Twitter )

I tried to include EVERY relevant factor I could think of. Some were more more relevant than others for sure and I tried to weight things really lightly that lacked complete data and things that were less important.

Poking holes in things here and there are fine, but you CANNOT look at the body of evidence I present and conclude anything but BYU being more P5ish than a decent portion of the P5 itself.

UConn and BYU have the best resumes but UConn has an even worse Geography than BYU and lacks the football strength that usually drives expansion.

Anyways, heres to hoping the Big12 actually DOES expand and that it's the BYU Cougars and the UConn Huskies.

PS ... I came up to our game there in Hartford a couple years back and really enjoyed the visit. Got some nice fans up there!

Welcome aboard. Kudos to you for putting together your spreadsheets. You really did some fine work. Like I said earlier in this thread, any data listing that doesn't come to the conclusion that UConn and BYU are 1 and 2 is a flawed list. It's much easier to discuss this stuff over a message board than on Twitter.

Can you answer a question for me - what is a distinguished/powerful alumni? What is the criteria used to determine which school's alumni fall into this category? I found it odd that all schools except for BYU have a 'N/A'. Most schools have influential alumni. I don't know how much weight each category had in coming up with your fanbase report but I'm just trying to get a feel for how the numbers ended up how they did.

Geography - honestly, I think this is overblown quite a bit. We currently play games in the American and our conference mates include: Tulsa, Tulane, SMU, and Houston. The two directional FL schools are fairly far too, if you are going strictly by mileage. Our closest conference mate is Temple...then Cincinnati/East Carolina. Point is, we haven't heard a single peep from any of these schools that coming to Connecticut is too far or too costly (and costs are a considerable factor for the majority of schools in this tidily wink G5 conference). If the AAC has figured out the travel to Connecticut and hasn't complained about it (aside: the AAC men's hoops tournament is coming BACK to Hartford), then I am positive that the Big 12 could too. Geography should not hurt UConn or BYU.

Subsidy - I know you made mention over Twitter that UConn's $72M reported 2014 revenue is flawed since UConn drew a considerable $27M subsidy. No dispute there - the athletic department simply doesn't draw the same revenue stream in the AAC as it did in the Big East years ago. In order to maintain the same continued level of funding for our athletic programs that it (and our fans/alumni) have grown accustomed to, the school has had to draw from other resources. Subsidies can be collected from a variety of sources - mostly student fees or, in our case, a combination of student fees, Big East exit fees, and tax dollars. Focusing on subsidies is a tad misguided. The focus should be on the athletic department budget. How much money is a school willing to allocate towards its sports? In our case, UConn has been funding our book of sports at a P5 level even after being relegated into G5 abyss. The level of commitment has paid off on the fields, court, and ice. We certainly aren't the only school that draws subsidy money but we are the only G5 that has committed a P5 level budget to sports. BYU has made a similar commitment to its sports and hopefully a move to the B12 would boost your AD budget even more and help elevate your hoops programs. UConn fans hope that B12 membership would help us on our recruiting trail and beat out some of our northeast r1vals for top prospects.

Anyway, welcome aboard to the 'Yard. As you can see from our Conference Realignment board, our fanbase has been following CR almost as closely as our sports programs. Here's to hoping that both of our fanbases can get into the B12 so we can all stop debating about subsidies, market strength, brand value, academics, etc and focus on the stuff that we care most about: sports.

 

[ZooCougar]

That whole Nate Silver fanbase study was debunked a number of times. Not his best work by a mile. Garbage in, garbage out.

 

[UConnTrumbull]

Can't wait for Dooley vs Coug. Welterweight showdown.

 

[upstater]

The thing I love about these arguments is that the researchers are telling the B12 that they need to expand the footprint of the conference into new territory while the fans of many teams are making arguments about geography. It's laughable.

 

[mavblues]

@BamaCoug Your market size is completely wrong for us. Given that, I question the validity of anything else you've compiled.

Ever hear of Fairfield County? Yeah, it's part of CT. You failed to include those numbers in your analysis, giving us credit for only the Hartford/New Haven DMA (which is #30 all by itself).

We're also the 5th most popular football program in NYC, and we have significant traction in Boston and the rest of New England. Those areas greatly boost our media numbers, because the markets are so large. So to the #30 DMA, you have to add all of Fairfield County CT, and give us partial credit for both NYC and Boston.

But of course that won't fit your narrative, will it?

What about attractiveness to advertisers? CT has one of the wealthiest populations in the country, with lots of disposable income. We like to drink and have sex. Translation: advertising $$ from those vices. Contrast that with BYU: alcohol ads during BYU games? Condoms? Debatable. CT residents are much more attractive to advertisers than the LDS population.

What about national championships? That's the whole point of competing, after all.

For the record, I have no problem with the B12 adding BYU. But for you to pretend that BYU is more attractive than UConn ignores reality. Where would BYU get in-market rates for a B12N? Salt lake City? OK. Outside of Utah, your LDS population is disbursed, so you're not adding in-market rates anywhere else. UConn has already demonstrated (via SNY) that CT residents (including Fairfield County) will pay big $$ to watch their Huskies. Like it or not, that matters when starting up a new network.

 

[Pudge]

You can do either. The options aren't as large at the branches, though.

I just hated how everyone would come in from the branches with inflated GPA's and got the same degree as me. The branches aren't nearly as difficult as a Storrs equivalent course. I also don't understand why someone that graduates a branch gets a University of Connecticut degree that counts the same as someone who graduates from Storrs - again, the course load and difficulty of the courses don't really compare.

You will LOVE the Penn State system then. You could go to Penn State Abington, Penn State Erie or Penn State Harrisburg ... and the all get the same degree. You don't need to ever set foot in State College, PA

 

[Ldandy]

AND SLC is a very large airport hub with many direct flights from all over the nation. It's among the biggest hubs for Delta. (BYU Campus just a 40 min drive from there ... with a landing strip in Provo able to handle any size charter plane to boot).

Are you willing to give up your no Sunday play stance? BYU feels like a non starter until they decide they are willing to be a team player. The WCC might be willing to accommodate The BYU Brand, but I can't say that UT, OU or KU need to do you any special favors. Especially if other options hold no unreasonable demands for entry.

 

[upstater]

You will LOVE the Penn State system then. You could go to Penn State Abington, Penn State Erie or Penn State Harrisburg ... and the all get the same degree. You don't need to ever set foot in State College, PA

Do people ever look at diplomas though? I dont even know where mine is anymore. Im sure it's somewhere in the home.

Sometimes employers look at transcripts.

Obviously grad schools will know where you got your degree from.

 

[CL82]

Sup Huskies?!?

I'm actually the creator of this spreadsheet and SEVERAL other documents (pursue links to them all here http:// /ppGJIF or here Media Tweets by Jeffrey Fuller (@jjfuller72) | Twitter )

I tried to include EVERY relevant factor I could think of. Some were more more relevant than others for sure and I tried to weight things really lightly that lacked complete data and things that were less important.

Poking holes in things here and there are fine, but you CANNOT look at the body of evidence I present and conclude anything but BYU being more P5ish than a decent portion of the P5 itself.

UConn and BYU have the best resumes but UConn has an even worse Geography than BYU and lacks the football strength that usually drives expansion.

Anyways, heres to hoping the Big12 actually DOES expand and that it's the BYU Cougars and the UConn Huskies.

PS ... I came up to our game there in Hartford a couple years back and really enjoyed the visit. Got some nice fans up there!

Hey thanks for stopping by. Overall I thought it was interesting. I do think that if you only have one data point, it isn't particularly probative to score that 100% for BYU and 0 for everyone else. It's as if I made up a chart and and said located in state that at is at least partially located in the NYC DMC and score it 100% for UConn and 0% for everyone else.

Otherwise, though, I thought it was interesting. I think your numbers for Connecticut are off a bit (about a million people live in Fairfield County and your table excludes) but I didn't feel like that was deliberate.

Take a look at the chart below.

BYU looks pretty good here as well. Feel free to take it back to your home board, if you'd like.

 

[Ldandy]

You will LOVE the Penn State system then. You could go to Penn State Abington, Penn State Erie or Penn State Harrisburg ... and the all get the same degree. You don't need to ever set foot in State College, PA

That's only accurate for a a small number of degrees. Most branch campuses are now offering between 20-30 of the 150 + degrees PSU currently offers. Most are liberal arts or business related. If your career goal is to be an accountant and you never want to leave home to do it, odds are you can. That said you will be missing out on 2-4 years at one of the most fun college campuses in the nation.

 

[BamaCoug]

Hey thanks for stopping by. Overall I thought it was interesting. I do think that if you only have one data point, it isn't particularly probative to score that 100% for BYU and 0 for everyone else. It's as if I made up a chart and and said located in state that at is at least partially located in the NYC DMC and score it 100% for UConn and 0% for everyone else.

Otherwise, though, I thought it was interesting. I think your numbers for Connecticut are off a bit (about a million people live in Fairfield County and your table excludes) but I didn't feel like that was deliberate.

Take a look at the chart below.
View attachment 13563

BYU looks pretty good here as well. Feel free to take it back to your home board, if you'd like.

I've seen that table before, and it does a good job of highlighting UConn's strong points. The media market number there of 20 is a very arguable point, because it's counting a portion that isn't in that media market. Around 60% of BYU fans live OUTSIDE of the Utah/SLC media market, but that isn't accounted for in the chart.

In these two charts I try to cut through the simplicity of just saying media market size and try to re-weight them based on 1) how much CFB/college sports matter to folks in that media market & 2) How many of those people actually cheer for the the schools in question. Arguable points there I'm sure, and UConn probably underperforms its potential reach because it's based on Football fans ... but still a pretty interesting way to look at the data by diving deeper into the demographics.





Would love to hear your thoughts.

And the Revenue data is arguable too. I think you need to look at true "revenue" by not counting subsidies as athletic revenue. That almost seems like cheating. And UConn leads the way in the subsidy area among the candidates at $27 million. I get that it means a dedication to sports overall, but it also represents programs trying to upgrade and spend to "prove" to P5 conferences that they're P5-like ... and don't represent a renewable source of $$$.

I may have to add in some of that "in the pros" info to my data sheets. But, whoever at UConn made this up should have added a "in the WNBA" column to REALLY show some dominance for UConn though .

 

[BamaCoug]

Hey thanks for stopping by. Overall I thought it was interesting. I do think that if you only have one data point, it isn't particularly probative to score that 100% for BYU and 0 for everyone else. It's as if I made up a chart and and said located in state that at is at least partially located in the NYC DMC and score it 100% for UConn and 0% for everyone else.

Otherwise, though, I thought it was interesting. I think your numbers for Connecticut are off a bit (about a million people live in Fairfield County and your table excludes) but I didn't feel like that was deliberate.

Take a look at the chart below.
View attachment 13563

BYU looks pretty good here as well. Feel free to take it back to your home board, if you'd like.

And here's a few more data sheets potentially relevant to my response above.

 

[BamaCoug]

 

[hardcorehusky]

The reality is this: it doesn't matter what spreadsheet this guy did nor Matt Schonivsky. It is all about the BVH report that was commissioned for the Big 12. That is the one Boren and Texas et al will use to figure out best fit.

UCONN's quiet is (in my opinion) they feel really comfortable on how we stack up. The key is going to be ESPN. They owe us one and if they dictate to the Big 12 that UCONN is what they want for eastward expansion, then we are looking good.

 

[B1GOSU]

Interesting stats. I would love to see a similar chart for B1G expansion. Comparing UCONN to Virginia, UNC, GA Tech, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas.

 

[TheDoggPound]

I think it could be argued that having the state bankrolling portions of UConn's budget is actually advantageous. That's free money for the University, which in turn means free money for the Big 12 albeit even if indirectly.

 

[upstater]

The far right column is impossible to determine given the apples and oranges accounting that is common in the NCAA.

 

[upstater]

I've seen that table before, and it does a good job of highlighting UConn's strong points. The media market number there of 20 is a very arguable point, because it's counting a portion that isn't in that media market. Around 60% of BYU fans live OUTSIDE of the Utah/SLC media market, but that isn't accounted for in the chart.

This makes absolutely no sense.

Cable subscribers in Fairfield County still pay $2.60 for SNY (basic cable) and it is the channel for some (not all) of UConn's tier 3 sports.

It pains me to do this because it is so basic and elemental and it sounds like I'm insulting you, but I have to do it anyway: Connecticut is a state. Not a city. Most states in this country have multiple DMAs. Just because Ohio State is not located in Cleveland's DMA does not mean that Cleveland isn't Buckeye territory. They pay the same amount for BTN in many corners of the state.