ESPN, Big 12 Agree To Sweeping Media-Rights Deal

[UConnJim]

Just wondering if you have a source about the declining numbers because I just attended a presentation on college futures that showed the northeast has decent rises n middle school/high school students projected over the next 5-8 years while the southeast and southwest will be down a lot.

First, let's look at the school aged population by state from 2000 to 2015. I have bolded the Northeast and Midwest states.

States with growth >5%: Arizona, Nevada, Texas, Florida, Idaho, Utah, Georgia, Alaska, North Carolina, Hawaii, Colorado, Oregon, Virginia.

States with growth 2.5% to 5.0%: Maryland, Tennessee, Delaware, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Washington, South Carolina, Nebraska.

States with growth 0.5% to 2.5%: Montana, California, Missouri, South Dakota, Louisiana, New Mexico, Kansas, New Hampshire, Wyoming, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Indiana.

States with growth 0.0% to 0.5%: Mississippi, Illinois, New Jersey.

States with growth <0.0%: Alabama, Iowa, DC, Ohio, Maine, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New York, North Dakota, Vermont, Connecticut.

The problem I have found with school population projections (as well as state population projections) is that politics get involved as changes in numbers can have a big impact on government spending and investment. That said, here is a chart from the US Department of Education that shows the future projections which shows the decline in the Northeast and the continued growth of the rest of the country:

 

[upstater]

First, let's look at the school aged population by state from 2000 to 2015. I have bolded the Northeast and Midwest states.

States with growth >5%: Arizona, Nevada, Texas, Florida, Idaho, Utah, Georgia, Alaska, North Carolina, Hawaii, Colorado, Oregon, Virginia.

States with growth 2.5% to 5.0%: Maryland, Tennessee, Delaware, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Washington, South Carolina, Nebraska.

States with growth 0.5% to 2.5%: Montana, California, Missouri, South Dakota, Louisiana, New Mexico, Kansas, New Hampshire, Wyoming, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Indiana.

States with growth 0.0% to 0.5%: Mississippi, Illinois, New Jersey.

States with growth <0.0%: Alabama, Iowa, DC, Ohio, Maine, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New York, North Dakota, Vermont, Connecticut.

The problem I have found with school population projections (as well as state population projections) is that politics get involved as changes in numbers can have a big impact on government spending and investment. That said, here is a chart from the US Department of Education that shows the future projections which shows the decline in the Northeast and the continued growth of the rest of the country:



View attachment 45058

Thanks.

I wonder what the disconnect could be. Is it that the people at the presentation I was at were looking at possible college bound students? It's very weird.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

There is an ever growing number of football players in my state of official residence...Florida.

You think CTE is a myth. I got it.

Question: Do you still play football?

 

[UConnJim]

You think CTE is a myth. I got it.

Question: Do you still play football?

Nelson, nobody is claiming that CTE is a myth, but there are other sports that are just as bad like hockey. (Many would argue that girl's soccer is one of the worst sports for concussions, but we won't know the LT impact for years as participation wasn't that high in the past.) Plus, football has been addressing concussions and playing football today is much safer than it was 20 years ago. Practices are nothing like the practices of old and there is significant emphasis on tackling techniques.

The number of high school football participants and the popularity of college and pro football do not indicate a sport in imminent decline. In pockets of the country, the sport may be in decline, but it's not true in the entire US.

 

[CL82]

Just wondering if you have a source about the declining numbers because I just attended a presentation on college futures that showed the northeast has decent rises n middle school/high school students projected over the next 5-8 years while the southeast and southwest will be down a lot.

Interesting. I hadn't heard this. Class size has been trending downward steadily around here.

 

[upstater]

Interesting. I hadn't heard this. Class size has been trending downward steadily around here.

It's nationwide. This generation (10-18s) has the smallest size in a generation. The presentation I saw showed that a lot of schools in different parts of the country will be in danger of filling seats, but in the northeast, we are maintaining.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Nelson, nobody is claiming that CTE is a myth, but there are other sports that are just as bad like hockey. (Many would argue that girl's soccer is one of the worst sports for concussions, but we won't know the LT impact for years as participation wasn't that high in the past.) Plus, football has been addressing concussions and playing football today is much safer than it was 20 years ago. Practices are nothing like the practices of old and there is significant emphasis on tackling techniques.

The number of high school football participants and the popularity of college and pro football do not indicate a sport in imminent decline. In pockets of the country, the sport may be in decline, but it's not true in the entire US.

Success in football is dependent on winning high speed collisions. You are saying girls' soccer is more dangerous?

 

[billybud]

You think CTE is a myth. I got it.

Question: Do you still play football?

Nope....

Too old for the U 70....did play rugby through age 50.

BUT....it is foolish to attack football because of your agenda and not recognize that hockey is in the same boat in terms of CTE.I

Since you ignore hockey and CTE....either you think it is a myth, or, more likely, you have an anti football agenda.

 

[UConnJim]

Success in football is dependent on winning high speed collisions. You are saying girls' soccer is more dangerous?

Believe it or not, women's soccer has one of the highest or perhaps the highest incidence of concussions in sport. (The numbers suggest the incidence of concussion in women's soccer is about equal to football and 3x the rate of men's soccer.) It is somewhat surprising, but look up the studies. Unfortunately, we do not know the LT effects on women from soccer yet as the sport is relatively new.

Why the high rate of concussions? First, soccer players play more games and practice more than football players. Next, using the head is an integral part of the sport to hit the ball. And, during contested headers, girls heads collide without protection. Also, kids get kicked in the head on occasion.

The problem (for both men and women) has been recognized and rules for youth soccer have been modified to not allow heading for U11 and under and U13s are only allowed to practice heading 30 minutes per week.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Believe it or not, women's soccer has one of the highest or perhaps the highest incidence of concussions in sport. (The numbers suggest the incidence of concussion in women's soccer is about equal to football and 3x the rate of men's soccer.) It is somewhat surprising, but look up the studies. Unfortunately, we do not know the LT effects on women from soccer yet as the sport is relatively new.

Why the high rate of concussions? First, soccer players play more games and practice more than football players. Next, using the head is an integral part of the sport to hit the ball. And, during contested headers, girls heads collide without protection. Also, kids get kicked in the head on occasion.

The problem (for both men and women) has been recognized and rules for youth soccer have been modified to not allow heading for U11 and under and U13s are only allowed to practice heading 30 minutes per week.

I know the arguments the NFL is making. None of them make football any safer. Good luck maintaining youth numbers in a sport that destroys kids bodies and scrambles their brains.

 

[Slasher]

It's nationwide. This generation (10-18s) has the smallest size in a generation. The presentation I saw showed that a lot of schools in different parts of the country will be in danger of filling seats, but in the northeast, we are maintaining.

It makes complete sense in this changing world. Fewer and fewer people want to be parents. The prime child producing aged people (myself included) are waiting longer and longer to have children.

 

[UConnJim]

I know the arguments the NFL is making. None of them make football any safer. Good luck maintaining youth numbers in a sport that destroys kids bodies and scrambles their brains.

Some people will agree with you on football and others will not. Some parents will force their kids to opt out and others won't. The numbers don't indicate an imminent collapse in football, so it will be around for a while, probably a long while.

If you haven't seen a youth football practice recently, check it out as it is totally different than when I played youth football. There is very little hitting and tackling of other kids, but there is tackling instruction and drills.

 

[auggie22]

I’m not an expert on CTE by any stretch, but I think what makes football so dangerous, and sets it apart from the other sports, is the number of sub concussive events to which a player is exposed. Even in practice, you have OLs, RBs, DLs and LBs colliding with one another, DBs jamming wide receivers, on every play from scrimmage. Little collisions are THE GAME, not just a part of it. You cannot say that about Soccer or even Hockey.

 

[huskymedic]

Study: CTE found in people with no history of contact sports

>>However, a new study of eight men released earlier this week featured in Sports Medicine Research shows that CTE had been found in six of those subjects, who had no history of contact sports or history of neurotrauma. While the sample size is certainly small and more testing will be needed to draw a more definitive conclusion, the results will be very interesting to football coaches and other coaches of contact sports.<<

>>From the research:

“The authors found that 75% of the small case series met the neuropathological criteria for CTE, but none of the men had a known history of participation in contact sports or had a history of multiple concussions. This is important because some researchers have asserted that CTE is a pathology that only afflicts those involved in contact sports; however, CTE may affect those with neurodegenerative diseases or drug addictions.”<<

 

[billybud]

Don't ever fool yourself that hockey does not include many sub concussive events...with every hard check there is a possibilty of the brain moving inside the skull.

The fact that there are twice as many youth concussions per opportunity in hockey than football is a data point that only folks anxious to 86 football ignore.

Hockey goes first....if safety is really an aim.

 

[upstater]

Don't ever fool yourself that hockey does not include many sub concussive events...with every hard check there is a possibilty of the brain moving inside the skull.

The fact that there are twice as many youth concussions per opportunity in hockey than football is a data point that only folks anxious to 86 football ignore.

Hockey goes first....if safety is really an aim.

Hockey can easily get around these problems though, whereas football can't. Hockey can move to no-checking. Can football move to no-tackling?

 

[billybud]

Hockey without checking would be like 7 on 7 football...

I can watch 7 on 7...but it ain't football.

 

[billybud]

You can have soccer without being allowed to go aloft and head...maybe soccer changes less.

 

[upstater]

Hockey without checking would be like 7 on 7 football...

I can watch 7 on 7...but it ain't football.

There is already no checking hockey in the youth game. It looks like hockey. Without checking. You can do it. Not that hard. It is definitely hockey.

 

[traitor71]

I know the arguments the NFL is making. None of them make football any safer. Good luck maintaining youth numbers in a sport that destroys kids bodies and scrambles their brains.

Science and rule changes will work to make football safer. It's America's passion and it generates a lot of money, so it isn't going anywhere.

 

[billybud]

I suspect that hockey and football will both attempt to provide safety changes...it may or may not be enough to save the sports long term.

But I'll be dead and buried in my grave before football as we lnow it, is unrecognizable.

 

[Adios]

Soccer heading can lead to brain damage and mid-life dementia — here's what should be done

Many parents encourage their children to play soccer, since it's considered a non-contact sport. But the latest research casts doubt on that assumption.

www.businessinsider.com

Ban soccer!

 

[B12]

Why would the Big Ten pay $55,000,000 for Kansas?

There are 500,000 cable households in Kansas - the Big Ten would be lighting money on fire.

If you're going to overpay for a dreadful market, might as well pick off Oklahoma instead.

LOL. Some people just don't get it.

What's the population of Nebraska? A, doesn't matter. But by all means keep on thinking that way.

KU is the next piece of the puzzle, and if given the choice they will chose B1G over Big 12 or SEC. I don't know about OU.

The bottom line is I expect KU, OU, and UT to leave in the next few years. And KU will be going to the B1G in spite of your opinions on cable sub numbers.

Keep up the fine work.

 

[Fishy]

No one is paying $55,000,000 for Kansas.

The SEC would light the southeastern United States on fire before they invited Kansas.

In today's cable market, Nebraska doesn't even get an invite to the Big 10, but there has never been a cable market where the Big Ten decides it makes sense to invite Kansas. At least Nebraska has some cache as a football legacy whereas Kansas has been a punchline.

And again, the demo is pure dreck - it's a dinky flyover state with no recruiting significance.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Andrew Luck retires. But football is no more dangerous than soccer?