ESPN, Big 12 Agree To Sweeping Media-Rights Deal

[UConnJim]

Adding Maryland and Rutgers looks ridiculous in hindsight, and I think the top programs and top schools are pumping the brakes on expansion because the future is so uncertain on TV and football as a sport.

Maybe football will decline in the LT, but HS participation in football is still very strong. Here are the numbers of participants in 11-man HS football:

1969/1970: 853k
1983/1984: 923k
1996/1997: 957k
2003/2004: 1,033k
2009/2010: 1,109k
2010/2011: 1,110K
2014/2015: 1,085K
2017/2018: 1,070K

Yes, we keep hearing stories that football is in decline due to concussions and injuries, but people are still playing football and it is still the most popular sport. The sport has become safer at all levels today as practices are less intense and kids are taught the proper ways of tackling. If you live in the Northeast, your view of football is skewed as the school age population of most Northeast and Midwest states is declining which has resulted in football programs shuttering due to dwindling numbers.

I have a friend in Texas and when he moved to his town, they had 3 high schools, each with a football team. Today they have 7 high schools, each with a football team.

 

[whaler11]

I'm just saying Oklahoma is one of the biggest national brands in football. Big 10 obviously should have grabbed Texas and Oklahoma, somehow they justified grabbing Rutgers and Maryland who nobody cares about.

Their model even today makes Rutgers more valuable than Oklahoma from a conference revenue perspective.

 

[Guapo]

I really have a hard time seeing Texas joining the Big 10, SEC or ACC.

Honestly, I think they’re pretty comfortable where they are. They need to be the straw that stirs the drink in whatever conference they’re in; and they simply wouldn’t be in that position in any of the conferences listed above.

 

[Guapo]

Their model even today makes Rutgers more valuable than Oklahoma from a conference revenue perspective.

This brings up an interesting. Obviously if you’re talk hard numbers (tv sets; cash in hand) you’re right.

But what has the addition of Rutgers and Maryland done to soft number valuations of the conference and it’s “brand” and brand equity?

I know this isn’t possibly due to how the conference divisions are set up; but, in theory, would a Rutgers-Michigan Big 10 championship game garner the ratings that a Oklahoma-Michigan championship game would garner?

 

[whaler11]

This brings up an interesting. Obviously if you’re talk hard numbers (tv sets; cash in hand) you’re right.

But what has the addition of Rutgers and Maryland done to soft number valuations of the conference and it’s “brand” and brand equity?

I know this isn’t possibly due to how the conference divisions are set up; but, in theory, would a Rutgers-Michigan Big 10 championship game garner the ratings that a Oklahoma-Michigan championship game would garner?

What has Nebraska done?

 

[Guapo]

What has Nebraska done?

Lol I knew that would be your response. Adding Nebraska was a mistake for both the Big 10 and Nebraska.

This will never happen, but Nebraska needs to pull a UConn and go back to the Big 12 to restore its brand, rivalries and recruiting territory

 

[superjohn]

Their model even today makes Rutgers more valuable than Oklahoma from a conference revenue perspective.

I don't follow this stuff at all. So just because Rutgers is smack dab in the middle of the tri-state area they are more valuable even though nobody watches them than Oklahoma who is a national brand?

 

[Guapo]

What has Nebraska done?

What has Nebraska done?

Lol I knew that would be your response. Adding Nebraska was a mistake for both the Big 10 and Nebraska.

This will never happen, but Nebraska needs to pull a UConn and go back to the Big 12 to restore its brand, rivalries and recruiting territory

And Nebraska should be a cautionary tale to Oklahoma and Texas re: the Big 10.

Sometimes the grass is just a fine shade of green on your own side of the fence.

 

[whaler11]

I don't follow this stuff at all. So just because Rutgers is smack dab in the middle of the tri-state area they are more valuable even though nobody watches them than Oklahoma who is a national brand?

Very much so. They generate a dollar per month to tri state cable subscribers.

 

[Rufus]

Nebraska has no regrets about joining the Big Ten. They are a perfect cultural fit.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Maybe football will decline in the LT, but HS participation in football is still very strong. Here are the numbers of participants in 11-man HS football:

1969/1970: 853k
1983/1984: 923k
1996/1997: 957k
2003/2004: 1,033k
2009/2010: 1,109k
2010/2011: 1,110K
2014/2015: 1,085K
2017/2018: 1,070K

Yes, we keep hearing stories that football is in decline due to concussions and injuries, but people are still playing football and it is still the most popular sport. The sport has become safer at all levels today as practices are less intense and kids are taught the proper ways of tackling. If you live in the Northeast, your view of football is skewed as the school age population of most Northeast and Midwest states is declining which has resulted in football programs shuttering due to dwindling numbers.

I have a friend in Texas and when he moved to his town, they had 3 high schools, each with a football team. Today they have 7 high schools, each with a football team.

Is CTE a myth?

 

[billybud]

CTE isn't just football...

For youth...the incidence of concussions per participation is higher in hockey than football.

Concussions in youth sports are particularly concerning as recent evidence suggests that the earlier in life a concussion is experienced, the higher likelihood of having prolonged complications. This is potentially due to injuring a brain that is still developing.

Ice hockey had the second highest concussion rate with 1.20 concussions per 1, 000 AE. American football came in third (0.53 concussions/1000 AE).[2] See the full list below:

1. Rugby (4.18/1,000 AE)
2. Ice hockey (1.20/1,000 AE)
3. American football (0.53/1,000 AE)
4. Lacrosse (0.24/1,000 AE)

 

[nelsonmuntz]

CTE isn't just football...

For youth...the incidence of concussions per participation is higher in hockey than football.

Concussions in youth sports are particularly concerning as recent evidence suggests that the earlier in life a concussion is experienced, the higher likelihood of having prolonged complications. This is potentially due to injuring a brain that is still developing.

Ice hockey had the second highest concussion rate with 1.20 concussions per 1, 000 AE. American football came in third (0.53 concussions/1000 AE).[2] See the full list below:

1. Rugby (4.18/1,000 AE)
2. Ice hockey (1.20/1,000 AE)
3. American football (0.53/1,000 AE)
4. Lacrosse (0.24/1,000 AE)

CTE comes from repeated sub-concussive traumas. These are a feature of football, not a bug.

 

[billybud]

Uh yeah...and the only measurement of effect of CTE per individual sport is a guesstimate based on concussion rates...

And hockey is the leader at double the football. rate..and that ain't no bug...

Don't let a kid play hockey.

Every hard check has a possible long term additive effect.

 

[Pudge]

Texas to the Big Ten seems the Play. Why? It is obvious: that Conference needs it. The SEC would just be throwing on another grafting; the ACC is too far from them … and took Louisville + Pitt + BC + Syracuse. The Pac 12 is a fit … but not dollar wise because of time zone issues. It is the BIG TEN … and once again, OKLAHOMA is the tag along travel buddy.

 

[upstater]

Maybe football will decline in the LT, but HS participation in football is still very strong. Here are the numbers of participants in 11-man HS football:

1969/1970: 853k
1983/1984: 923k
1996/1997: 957k
2003/2004: 1,033k
2009/2010: 1,109k
2010/2011: 1,110K
2014/2015: 1,085K
2017/2018: 1,070K

Yes, we keep hearing stories that football is in decline due to concussions and injuries, but people are still playing football and it is still the most popular sport. The sport has become safer at all levels today as practices are less intense and kids are taught the proper ways of tackling. If you live in the Northeast, your view of football is skewed as the school age population of most Northeast and Midwest states is declining which has resulted in football programs shuttering due to dwindling numbers.

I have a friend in Texas and when he moved to his town, they had 3 high schools, each with a football team. Today they have 7 high schools, each with a football team.

Just wondering if you have a source about the declining numbers because I just attended a presentation on college futures that showed the northeast has decent rises n middle school/high school students projected over the next 5-8 years while the southeast and southwest will be down a lot.

 

[upstater]

Lol I knew that would be your response. Adding Nebraska was a mistake for both the Big 10 and Nebraska.

This will never happen, but Nebraska needs to pull a UConn and go back to the Big 12 to restore its brand, rivalries and recruiting territory

Nebraska relied on grabbing kids from the northeast, Florida and California in its heyday.
They relied on grabbing JUCOs and kids that even questionable schools would not touch.
They relied on stocking their club with 100s of Nebraska kids (in the days before scholarship limits) that no one else had any idea about because they played 7-on-7 ball.

It was a good confluence of events that won't be repeated, and to top it off, they'd lose tens of millions in making such a move.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Uh yeah...and the only measurement of effect of CTE per individual sport is a guesstimate based on concussion rates...

And hockey is the leader at double the football. rate..and that ain't no bug...

Don't let a kid play hockey.

Every hard check has a possible long term additive effect.

This is a stupid defense of football, but this may be the best they got. Good luck with getting parents to let their kids play football in the future if your argument is "there is one way in which hockey is more dangerous".

 

[billybud]

Not stupid. Hockey needs to go if you worry about kids and CTE....

And since your conversation is about CTE....how do you rationalize hockey?

 

[billybud]

There is an ever growing number of football players in my state of official residence...Florida.

 

[UConnJim]

Just wondering if you have a source about the declining numbers because I just attended a presentation on college futures that showed the northeast has decent rises n middle school/high school students projected over the next 5-8 years while the southeast and southwest will be down a lot.

First, let's look at the school aged population by state from 2000 to 2015. I have bolded the Northeast and Midwest states.

States with growth >5%: Arizona, Nevada, Texas, Florida, Idaho, Utah, Georgia, Alaska, North Carolina, Hawaii, Colorado, Oregon, Virginia.

States with growth 2.5% to 5.0%: Maryland, Tennessee, Delaware, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Washington, South Carolina, Nebraska.

States with growth 0.5% to 2.5%: Montana, California, Missouri, South Dakota, Louisiana, New Mexico, Kansas, New Hampshire, Wyoming, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Indiana.

States with growth 0.0% to 0.5%: Mississippi, Illinois, New Jersey.

States with growth <0.0%: Alabama, Iowa, DC, Ohio, Maine, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New York, North Dakota, Vermont, Connecticut.

The problem I have found with school population projections (as well as state population projections) is that politics get involved as changes in numbers can have a big impact on government spending and investment. That said, here is a chart from the US Department of Education that shows the future projections which shows the decline in the Northeast and the continued growth of the rest of the country:

 

[upstater]

First, let's look at the school aged population by state from 2000 to 2015. I have bolded the Northeast and Midwest states.

States with growth >5%: Arizona, Nevada, Texas, Florida, Idaho, Utah, Georgia, Alaska, North Carolina, Hawaii, Colorado, Oregon, Virginia.

States with growth 2.5% to 5.0%: Maryland, Tennessee, Delaware, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Washington, South Carolina, Nebraska.

States with growth 0.5% to 2.5%: Montana, California, Missouri, South Dakota, Louisiana, New Mexico, Kansas, New Hampshire, Wyoming, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Indiana.

States with growth 0.0% to 0.5%: Mississippi, Illinois, New Jersey.

States with growth <0.0%: Alabama, Iowa, DC, Ohio, Maine, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New York, North Dakota, Vermont, Connecticut.

The problem I have found with school population projections (as well as state population projections) is that politics get involved as changes in numbers can have a big impact on government spending and investment. That said, here is a chart from the US Department of Education that shows the future projections which shows the decline in the Northeast and the continued growth of the rest of the country:



View attachment 45058

Thanks.

I wonder what the disconnect could be. Is it that the people at the presentation I was at were looking at possible college bound students? It's very weird.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

There is an ever growing number of football players in my state of official residence...Florida.

You think CTE is a myth. I got it.

Question: Do you still play football?

 

[UConnJim]

You think CTE is a myth. I got it.

Question: Do you still play football?

Nelson, nobody is claiming that CTE is a myth, but there are other sports that are just as bad like hockey. (Many would argue that girl's soccer is one of the worst sports for concussions, but we won't know the LT impact for years as participation wasn't that high in the past.) Plus, football has been addressing concussions and playing football today is much safer than it was 20 years ago. Practices are nothing like the practices of old and there is significant emphasis on tackling techniques.

The number of high school football participants and the popularity of college and pro football do not indicate a sport in imminent decline. In pockets of the country, the sport may be in decline, but it's not true in the entire US.

 

[CL82]

Just wondering if you have a source about the declining numbers because I just attended a presentation on college futures that showed the northeast has decent rises n middle school/high school students projected over the next 5-8 years while the southeast and southwest will be down a lot.

Interesting. I hadn't heard this. Class size has been trending downward steadily around here.

 

[upstater]

Interesting. I hadn't heard this. Class size has been trending downward steadily around here.

It's nationwide. This generation (10-18s) has the smallest size in a generation. The presentation I saw showed that a lot of schools in different parts of the country will be in danger of filling seats, but in the northeast, we are maintaining.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Nelson, nobody is claiming that CTE is a myth, but there are other sports that are just as bad like hockey. (Many would argue that girl's soccer is one of the worst sports for concussions, but we won't know the LT impact for years as participation wasn't that high in the past.) Plus, football has been addressing concussions and playing football today is much safer than it was 20 years ago. Practices are nothing like the practices of old and there is significant emphasis on tackling techniques.

The number of high school football participants and the popularity of college and pro football do not indicate a sport in imminent decline. In pockets of the country, the sport may be in decline, but it's not true in the entire US.

Success in football is dependent on winning high speed collisions. You are saying girls' soccer is more dangerous?

 

[billybud]

You think CTE is a myth. I got it.

Question: Do you still play football?

Nope....

Too old for the U 70....did play rugby through age 50.

BUT....it is foolish to attack football because of your agenda and not recognize that hockey is in the same boat in terms of CTE.I

Since you ignore hockey and CTE....either you think it is a myth, or, more likely, you have an anti football agenda.

 

[UConnJim]

Success in football is dependent on winning high speed collisions. You are saying girls' soccer is more dangerous?

Believe it or not, women's soccer has one of the highest or perhaps the highest incidence of concussions in sport. (The numbers suggest the incidence of concussion in women's soccer is about equal to football and 3x the rate of men's soccer.) It is somewhat surprising, but look up the studies. Unfortunately, we do not know the LT effects on women from soccer yet as the sport is relatively new.

Why the high rate of concussions? First, soccer players play more games and practice more than football players. Next, using the head is an integral part of the sport to hit the ball. And, during contested headers, girls heads collide without protection. Also, kids get kicked in the head on occasion.

The problem (for both men and women) has been recognized and rules for youth soccer have been modified to not allow heading for U11 and under and U13s are only allowed to practice heading 30 minutes per week.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Believe it or not, women's soccer has one of the highest or perhaps the highest incidence of concussions in sport. (The numbers suggest the incidence of concussion in women's soccer is about equal to football and 3x the rate of men's soccer.) It is somewhat surprising, but look up the studies. Unfortunately, we do not know the LT effects on women from soccer yet as the sport is relatively new.

Why the high rate of concussions? First, soccer players play more games and practice more than football players. Next, using the head is an integral part of the sport to hit the ball. And, during contested headers, girls heads collide without protection. Also, kids get kicked in the head on occasion.

The problem (for both men and women) has been recognized and rules for youth soccer have been modified to not allow heading for U11 and under and U13s are only allowed to practice heading 30 minutes per week.

I know the arguments the NFL is making. None of them make football any safer. Good luck maintaining youth numbers in a sport that destroys kids bodies and scrambles their brains.