Okay, your rose colored glasses are getting a bit absurd. You're comparing a 15-yo Michael Jordan in high school vs Judge's 22-24 yo seasons in the upper minors. And btw, Piazza obliterated the ball in the upper minors. Don't get so defensive. I'm sorry the stats don't prove you out.
Haha, I knew you would take the bait. The point is there hasn't been another Aaron Judge. Stanton batted .260 his first season with as many homers as Judge has now.
That's my point, he has already shown me enough to think he's not a .250-.270 hitter. His approach, adjustments, and ability to hit to all fields shows a guy who shouldn't suffer too many prolonged slumps and shouldn't be a .250-270 hitter.
Dude..... please take a step back and realize that you're calling this guy the kind of talent that we haven't seen in decades and maybe since Mickey Mantle. Just think about that for a second. Do you think that maybe, just maybe there's some bias playing in here? Even if we normalize his BABIP down to .350 (top 15 in baseball last year, that's a .298 average. And even that is probably pretty generous, though I do think his exit velocity will likely help him maintain at least an above average BABIP. Oh and btw, I'm not even a fan of a team from the AL. I've also been following Judge since he was drafted and he's been a favorite prospect of mine since then. It's not about bitterness, it's about statistical realities.
I'm assuming you're older but don't conflate stats you don't understand with "meaningless stats". There is massive historical significance to these stats, I've provided you comparables to show just how unlikely it is that he ends up with your belief, which essentially is that he'll be the best in baseball (by far) in history at sustaining BABIP and HR/FB. I get that you've never heard of them, but baseball has a lot of luck in it. It's the reason guys like Chris Johnson can have a season competing for a batting title and be bums the rest of the time. I've provided a comp like Stanton, who sure, doesn't hit the ball quite as hard (btw, Judge isn't even first in baseball right now in that stat), but has phenomenally similar peripherals and is a career .267/.357/.541 career hitter. In the end all your argument rests on is hyperbole, the amateur eye test, and a healthy dose of rose colored glasses. Somehow you've painted me as talking down about him when I believe he'll be one of the better all-around OFers in the game for quite some time. You just seem to think he's the second coming.
Please if you're going to attack me, at least come up with some argument beyond 'he hits the ball really hard and look at his average'. Something, give me anything. You keep talking Mantle so tell me how Mantle also had a sustained an extraordinarily high BABIP throughout his career, and thus, Judge could also do that (I'll help you out, Mantle had a pretty normal BABIP). Just give me something other than curmudgeonly grumblings you'd expect from an old-school color commentator that's been passed by the times.
Yep, he's eligible. There are very few scenarios in which I could see him overwhelmingly winning the award with the year he's had.
Agreed, the actual tracking of data will make for some interesting analyses. With the limited statistical analyses, it's hard to really prove causation. You have guys like Stanton who are slightly above average, Sano who is generally quite good, but then plenty of very average guys (i.e. Machado and Nelson Cruz). The tough part now is that you have more observational guys without the stat tracking like the aforementioned Mantle or Adam Dunn, who aren't exactly what you'd expect given how hard people remember them hitting the ball. Given another 5-10 years, I think we're going to see some very interesting statistical analyses using that data though.
You mean the Sox fan thing? Yeah, I hope so too...
A few years ago I had the same opinion as you regarding Cashman but what the front office has done in getting younger and transforming their minor league system is worthy of praise. Pitching is still a question mark though