I'm surprised people put so much stock in these predictions in the first place.
I always read these threads with two things in mind:
1. The inside scoop comes from people around or close to the program, and is typically passed on to people outside the program, but it almost never comes from people in the program.
2. Sometimes coaches are entirely confident of landing a player, and sometimes they believe they've landed a player, and sometimes these players have even given coaches silent verbals. And to everyone's shock, especially the coach who thinks a recruit has committed, the player either changes his mind or else wasn't serious in the first place, he commits somewhere else. This has happened almost everywhere multiple times.
I just keep this in mind and it all makes sense. Clearly, when we're told someone is on campus when he's not, the info isn't coming from someone who knows things with any certainty.