Does UConn Need "Style Points" to Secure a 2-Seed?

[oldude]

There are two issues your post addresses. 1) Major point - Does UConn need to wallop opponents in the BE tournament in order to move up in the pecking order to secure placement in Bridgeport. IMO, no - they just need to win out. I think what’s more critical is what happens to the teams ranked just ahead of them by the selection committee.

2) Minor point - It’s implied in the first few sentences of your post that if UConn needs to crush the opposition in the tournament, this might have to occur “reluctantly” because of Geno’s admiration/fondness/respect of his fellow coaches. No reluctance! A hallmark of Husky teams is, if they are playing to his standards, they play at 100% or greater the entire game. With the exception of not throwing up shots in the final seconds of a quarter where the game is clearly already decided, there is no let up. I don’t think Geno cares about the final score nearly as much as the team’s effort and execution, and I don’t think this changes going into the BE tournament even if might impact their NCAA seeding.

There is another element that does not bode well for UConn’s opponents in the BE tournament. UConn’s 9-player rotation has exactly 2 games playing together. While they look very good, they are not as good as they could be. Geno will use the BE tournament to give his 9-player rotation as much time as possible to work together. Mop up minutes for Piath & Amari will be limited.

 

[Centerstream]

The IFs are abundant. In the upcoming Power 5 Conference tourneys, 3 #1 seeds will fall. If you’re writing your brackets down, use a pencil.

Are you talking about Conference #1 seeds or National #1 seeds (SoCar, Stanford, NC State and Louisville)?
If it's the latter, only 1 could be a guaranteed loss and that is only if NC State and Louisville meet in the Championship game. The other 2 #1 seeds may fall but it isn't a given as you seem to be stating.
If you are referring to P5 Conference #1 seeds, no guarantee that any 3 will fall.

 

[HuskyPhan]

Unfortunately the committee wouldn't think twice about underseeing UConn. Recent history proves that, like in 2019 when they were a two-seed with one fewer loss than Louisville, whom they ended up beating in Albany anyway to advance to the Final Four.

So yes, they could very well end up in Greensboro, even if they win out and pass the eye test doing it. But the biggest reason that may not happen is because of how deeply unfair it would be to South Carolina. Think about it. In that scenario, the overall number one seed with the player of the year would be little more than even money (real-world odds) to even get to the Final Four. The committee would need to take a very deep breath before indulging itself with such a move. And that may be what saves the day for South Carolina, and more importantly for the fans.

That is a great point that I hadn't thought of!!! We all know that no one wants to play this revitalized Uconn team and certainly it would be incredibly unfair to SC to have to beat one of the very best teams in the country just to get to the FF-personally I'm not worried about this possibility anymore-just need to take care of business at Mohegan Sun this weekend-I'll be there for all 3 games-it's going to be amazing!!!

 

[and one]

I have no idea what all goes in the minds of the selection committee. I do know that like all tournament selection committees, they'll be roasted by some schools, fans and press.

Winning the BE champion is a must; how they do it less so. Winning all those games by 2 would logically help justify a lower seeding. It is less clear that the committee will care if the wins are by 15 or 50. If the style in style points means showing how well UConn can play with a full roster then that's what will happen, for good or ill. If it means running up the score to the utmost, that won't happen. Full court pressing a team down 50 in the 4th quarter isn't style or class and committee members could deduct style points should such a thing exist.

Does the committee really have anti-Uconn bias? Among wcbb fans, I'm sure there is. As for the press or NCAA, they'd be crazy to try to kill a major cash cow that draws huge interest in the sport. It is hard enough to grow wcbb without trying to tear down a program that among all others raises awareness. If anything the NCAA should be hoping and praying that Paige, who has more name recognition than any other wcbb player, is in the final game, preferably against SC.

 

[JordyG]

No. They just need Iowa State to leave the Big 12 tournament early.

 

[LoboDays]

I have no idea what all goes in the minds of the selection committee.

Exactly. Do they only look at the body of work where they lost 4 out of 8 (I think it’s 8) OOC games against some good teams and got bounced by NOVA. Or do they consider injuries. If injuries are considered, the committee has a lot of work to do since all teams have them. Who was injured when a team lost? How strong was the team that beat them? Seems like a rabbit hole to me.

Since UCONN usually runs the table or maybe loses one OOC game, this is a unique year for them. But it’s probably not for the Committee. And, since they will receive very little credit for beating BE opponents but a lot of demerits for losing to one of them, this is a year where you don’t spend any time worrying about regions, brackets or seeds. Just get the team ready. Just play whoever is on the floor and just beat them.

 

[msf22b]

I'm not particularly concerned with "style points."
And hard to be leftward of Tony

But I would not be surprised if we have a margin of 25+
throughout both tourney's ...up into the final-4

The personnel and approach is finally in place
Enjoy watching them compete.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

The WCBB world wants in the worst way for UConn to get smacked down whenever possible. I'm not going to worry about it. Let them have their fun and underseed UConn. The only losers are whomever gets put in their bracket.

Big mistake. UConn would be a heavy underdog against SC. Need to get out of their bracket.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

No. They just need Iowa State to leave the Big 12 tournament early.

Speaking of that, how on earth is Iowa State a 2-seed in the first place? They've been blow out twice by both Baylor and Texas. Their best wins are against Iowa early in the season before Iowa was playing at a high level and two against OU.

 

[Plebe]

Speaking of that, how on earth is Iowa State a 2-seed in the first place? They've been blow out twice by both Baylor and Texas. Their best wins are against Iowa early in the season before Iowa was playing at a high level and two against OU.

Three wins over the committee's top 16, no losses outside the top 10.

Texas, for example, has better wins but has losses to Texas Tech and Kansas.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

Three wins over the committee's top 16, no losses outside the top 10.

Texas, for example, has better wins but has losses to Texas Tech and Kansas.

OK, but it would be somewhat hard to lose to teams outside the top-10 with the teams outside the top-10 Iowa State has played including Omaha, Southern, Charlotte, Drake, UMass, Longwood, Northern Iowa, and Prairie View, and even then they beat NIU by one point.

Meanwhile, UConn is likely still paying for the loss to Villanova, which they do have to own, but 'Nova is 18-2 since Siegrist's return. It's like UConn losing to "unranked" Oregon even though the Oregon team UConn lost to is probably a top-20 team.

 

[hoopsfan22]

Big mistake. UConn would be a heavy underdog against SC. Need to get out of their bracket.

How big of an underdog you think? 10 pts? 20?

 

[Sluconn Husky]

How big of an underdog you think? 10 pts? 20?

Don't know line-wise, but with such a severe rebounding disadvantage and Paige not yet showing that she's herself at this point, pretty heavy.

 

[hoopsfan22]

Don't know line-wise, but with such a severe rebounding disadvantage and Paige not yet showing that she's herself at this point, pretty heavy.

Paige has 3 weeks before that potential matchup. Hoping for a couple of big games from her this weekend to get back to "normal." I think if her and Azzi are rolling this team will be tough to beat.

 

[Plebe]

OK, but it would be somewhat hard to lose to teams outside the top-10 with the teams outside the top-10 Iowa State has played including Omaha, Southern, Charlotte, Drake, UMass, Longwood, Northern Iowa, and Prairie View, and even then they beat NIU by one point.

Meanwhile, UConn is likely still paying for the loss to Villanova, which they do have to own, but 'Nova is 18-2 since Siegrist's return. It's like UConn losing to "unranked" Oregon even though the Oregon team UConn lost to is probably a top-20 team.

So you're only going to mention the bad teams Iowa State beat? Any way you slice it, their slate of quality wins (OUx2, KUx2, KSUx2, plus Iowa), while not overwhelming, is stronger than UConn's and then consider it's without the losses to the likes of Georgia Tech and Oregon and Villanova.

I think Nova should make the tournament, but who other than UConn have they beaten? Bubble teams, basically. Oregon State plus some other Big East teams. Unfortunately, they followed up their win over UConn with a loss to Seton Hall.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

So you're only going to mention the bad teams Iowa State beat? Any way you slice it, their slate of quality wins (OUx2, KUx2, KSUx2, plus Iowa), while not overwhelming, is stronger than UConn's and then consider it's without the losses to the likes of Georgia Tech and Oregon and Villanova.

I think Nova should make the tournament, but who other than UConn have they beaten? Bubble teams, basically. Oregon State plus some other Big East teams. Unfortunately, they followed up their win over UConn with a loss to Seton Hall.

Georgia Tech was recently ranked 11th and Oregon is a top-20 team when healthy which they were when they faced UConn. The Cyclones' top players have barely missed a minute this year. Not sure the same can be said about UConn in their losses.

 

[Plebe]

Georgia Tech was recently ranked 11th and Oregon is a top-20 team when healthy which they were when they faced UConn. The Cyclones' top players have barely missed a minute this year. Not sure the same can be said about UConn in their losses.

You're quite the king of cherry-picking.

Even more recently, Georgia Tech has lost to Miami (twice), Florida State, Notre Dame and Virginia Tech. So no, they are not the 11th-best team in the country.

And healthy Oregon, since beating UConn, has lost to Arizona State, Oregon State and Colorado.

The above is why neither Georgia Tech nor Oregon are in the latest top 16.

FWIW not that it should tip the scales of the discussion, but Iowa State has had key players out for at least two of their losses that I know of. With or without that being the case, their overall resume of wins and losses is stronger than UConn's.

 

[VA Huskie]

You're quite the king of cherry-picking.

Even more recently, Georgia Tech has lost to Miami (twice), Florida State, Notre Dame and Virginia Tech. So no, they are not the 11th-best team in the country.

And healthy Oregon, since beating UConn, has lost to Arizona State, Oregon State and Colorado.

The above is why neither Georgia Tech nor Oregon are in the latest top 16.

FWIW not that it should tip the scales of the discussion, but Iowa State has had key players out for at least two of their losses that I know of. With or without that being the case, their overall resume of wins and losses is stronger than UConn's.

I can’t disagree with your argument. That being said, I’d sure love a scenario where we were to play Iowa St. I think we’d beat them by at least 15-20 points!

 

[Tonyc]

Let me tell ya somethin. I want UConn in Bridgeport. If they dont get there the 85% of the tickets sold I will fight with to get our money back. Then we will go to where UConn is and I will tell you this UConn will not loose. Can you imagine UConn going to SC's region and winning?????????? I dont think the NCAA will do that and they wont send UConn to Stanfords region either. Can you imagine what would happen??? UConn in Bridgeport and then Look Out For Tomorrow.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

You're quite the king of cherry-picking.

Even more recently, Georgia Tech has lost to Miami (twice), Florida State, Notre Dame and Virginia Tech. So no, they are not the 11th-best team in the country.

And healthy Oregon, since beating UConn, has lost to Arizona State, Oregon State and Colorado.

The above is why neither Georgia Tech nor Oregon are in the latest top 16.

FWIW not that it should tip the scales of the discussion, but Iowa State has had key players out for at least two of their losses that I know of. With or without that being the case, their overall resume of wins and losses is stronger than UConn's.

I'm not particuarly amused by the now two personal comments you've made. I'm done with this subject.

 

[TCC Kid]

It has always struck me that whatever analytics are involved in setting up the bracket for the Big Dance, the committee invariably leaves itself room for “rationalization” whenever it’s convenient.

So here’s my rationalization. At the start of the season, SC, Stanford & UConn were heads & tails above every other WBB team. UConn’s injuries and illness knocked them down for awhile. But with everyone back & healthy, the Huskies are once again among the top 3 teams in the nation.

Injuries supposedly are factored into seeding decisions, but how much of a role they play will come down to a decision by the selection committee that they will undoubtedly rationalize in whatever way they deem appropriate.

Forever and a day, some schools as in ND, UConn, Stanford, etc. when they had bad breaks i.e. Paige unexpectedly injured when they (ala Paige) returned healthy with a boat load of new proven in games talent the "committee" evaluates that in a positive vain. Geno is the Master of not only coaching but in getting a decent place for the Big Dance. Uconn will get ranked/rated where this team deserves.
I do, however, agree that a superb showing, even in style points, can hardly hurt Uconn's chances.

 

[TCC Kid]

Let me tell ya somethin. I want UConn in Bridgeport. If they dont get there the 85% of the tickets sold I will fight with to get our money back. Then we will go to where UConn is and I will tell you this UConn will not loose. Can you imagine UConn going to SC's region and winning?????????? I dont think the NCAA will do that and they wont send UConn to Stanfords region either. Can you imagine what would happen??? UConn in Bridgeport and then Look Out For Tomorrow.

You are either: Tough, Mean, a great Uconn fan (I pick the latter).

 

[BobbyJ]

Let me tell ya somethin. I want UConn in Bridgeport. If they dont get there the 85% of the tickets sold I will fight with to get our money back. Then we will go to where UConn is and I will tell you this UConn will not loose. Can you imagine UConn going to SC's region and winning?????????? I dont think the NCAA will do that and they wont send UConn to Stanfords region either. Can you imagine what would happen??? UConn in Bridgeport and then Look Out For Tomorrow.

On what grounds? Because you guessed wrong that UConn would be in that regional? Good luck with that.

 

[JordyG]

Speaking of that, how on earth is Iowa State a 2-seed in the first place? They've been blow out twice by both Baylor and Texas. Their best wins are against Iowa early in the season before Iowa was playing at a high level and two against OU.

When I find out you'll be the first to know.

You are either: Tough, Mean, a great Uconn fan (I pick the latter).

I would add committed, PO'd, and my kind of fan.

 

[JordyG]

Let me tell ya somethin. I want UConn in Bridgeport. If they dont get there the 85% of the tickets sold I will fight with to get our money back. Then we will go to where UConn is and I will tell you this UConn will not loose. Can you imagine UConn going to SC's region and winning?????????? I dont think the NCAA will do that and they wont send UConn to Stanfords region either. Can you imagine what would happen??? UConn in Bridgeport and then Look Out For Tomorrow.

Get 'em @Tonyc!