Does UConn Need "Style Points" to Secure a 2-Seed?

[TCC Kid]

There is another element that does not bode well for UConn’s opponents in the BE tournament. UConn’s 9-player rotation has exactly 2 games playing together. While they look very good, they are not as good as they could be. Geno will use the BE tournament to give his 9-player rotation as much time as possible to work together. Mop up minutes for Piath & Amari will be limited.

Geno with the BE will set his rotation for the NCAA T. I ask, because I don't see as many games as you and others do: How many teams in the BE or NCAA T have seen this level of defense? If they haven't they will be shocked. I hope DeBerry and Gabriel get lots of minutes. For their minimal time they are doing well. BUT, nothing compares to competition against lots of the best, top defense, top offense.

 

[KingKong139]

Unfortunately the committee wouldn't think twice about underseeing UConn. Recent history proves that, like in 2019 when they were a two-seed with one fewer loss than Louisville, whom they ended up beating in Albany anyway to advance to the Final Four.

So yes, they could very well end up in Greensboro, even if they win out and pass the eye test doing it. But the biggest reason that may not happen is because of how deeply unfair it would be to South Carolina. Think about it. In that scenario, the overall number one seed with the player of the year would be little more than even money (real-world odds) to even get to the Final Four. The committee would need to take a very deep breath before indulging itself with such a move. And that may be what saves the day for South Carolina, and more importantly for the fans.

Keep in mind in 2019 we played in a 2 (1?) bid conference.

 

[HopJim]

Geno has great respect for his fellow coaches in the BE. He will do anything he can to promote the conference. With that said, UConn needs to put on a show this coming weekend during the BE Tournament at the Mohegan Sun, even if some BE teams get bulldozed in the process.

As everyone knows, the last committee reveal prior to March 13 Selection Sunday has UConn as a 3rd seed, 9th overall, slotted for a potential Elite 8 game with SC in the Greensboro Region. For UConn to end up in the Bridgeport Region, the Huskies must be a 2-seed. With Iowa St’s bad loss to Baylor at home on Monday night, that may have already happened. Another loss by Iowa St, Michigan or LSU in their respective conference tournaments certainly wouldn’t hurt. But UConn can’t leave it up to fate.

MOV or “Style Points” are not supposed to be a major factor in tournament seeding decisions. But in all honesty, why even have a selection committee in the first place, if “Style Points” or the “Eye Test” are not a consideration? Some bright computer wiz could just write a program, feed in all the information and out pops a 68-team bracket. Charlie Crème and all the other pundits lose their jobs and there is nothing for fans to argue about. IMO, after the committee looks at all the numbers, NET, SOS, injuries, etc., the last few close calls come down to the style points and the eye test.

I believe the Huskies will come out with their foot on the gas on Saturday in Uncasville and I don’t expect them to let up until the championship game is over on Monday evening. Using their 9-player deep rotation, UConn will pressure opponents relentlessly on defense, while pushing the ball up the court in transition, looking to maximize both the score and MOV. If UConn is lucky, they might just earn a rematch with Villanova in the finals, so they can make it abundantly clear that the February 9th game without Paige, Liv & Caroline was quite simply a fluke.

Some might say it doesn’t matter if or when UConn plays SC…..Greensboro, Minneapolis, wherever. The Huskies are a better team than they were in the Bahamas, so let’s bring on the Gamecocks and have at it. Honestly, I’m OK with that way of thinking. But I sure wouldn’t mind a few more games to build momentum, particularly at the friendly confines of Webster Bank Arena in Bridgeport, CT.

Agree that it should not matter who Huskies play. Team is peaking at the perfect time and should have 3 Big East games to fine tune the current lineups.
That being said, it would not bother me if similar to Britney Griner's and Baylor's unexpected past loss, for any of the top ranked teams, South Carolina and Stanford in particular, to lose before they play UConn. That #2 seed could help. The NCAA's are tough enough - any help will be appreciated.

 

[Glenn]

After reading this thread, I have a few observations.
1. Style points just means margin of victory (MOV).
2. Computers (NET, Massey) and analysts that use MOV consistently put UConn as a 2 seed, and have for a while--even though computers do not know about our injuries.
3. The Committee does not seem to put much weight on MOV, which is why UConn is a 3 seed, why they rank ISU over Texas, despite Texas blowing them out twice (the computers prefer Texas and its body of work), and other examples.
4. Historically including MOV yields a better prediction of who will win a game--so the computers are onto something--but the Committee appears to have a strong bias against this. This is also true in football, where the computer guys have been required to do sub-optimal ratings without MOV for that Committee.

 

[HopJim]

While I understand the focus of this post, it really doesn't matter. Geno wants every lineup and team playing full speed every game. More compelling points to him are to get the biggest lead as soon as possible so he can give his injured players a rest and provide Piath and DeBerry more experience. The seeding will take care of itself.

 

[warbler1055]

Since the next UConn game is next Saturday, this is a good way to voice my feelings:
1. I actually agree with TonyC although he is way over optimistic for me. I do not want to go to Bridgeport to see other teams except for UConn. I do like WBB but my team is not playing in Bridgeport why bother.
2. Style points or not, we will know soon enough. There are a lot of conference championship games to be determined. UConn will probably get a 2 seed and possibly Bridgeport. The BE is a weak conference although some teams are getting better. UConn was always the standout be it in the AAC or BE. No FF and NC for BE or AAC except for UConn.
3. Power5 got football tv money and dominate the selection committee. So UConn is an enigma to them.
4. Truth be told, UConn only start to have all players back for the last 2 games and possibly the next 3 games. Caroline, Ododa, Fudd were walking wounded. And of course PB, our national player of the year is time limited (15 minutes to be exact). Fudd and Caroline are freshmen and have not been NCAA tournament tested. If the team can really gel in the next 3 BE games and be NCAA ready then we can be real NASTY. But so much depends on the potential of this team.