Does UConn Need "Style Points" to Secure a 2-Seed?

[LoboDays]

I have no idea what all goes in the minds of the selection committee.

Exactly. Do they only look at the body of work where they lost 4 out of 8 (I think it’s 8) OOC games against some good teams and got bounced by NOVA. Or do they consider injuries. If injuries are considered, the committee has a lot of work to do since all teams have them. Who was injured when a team lost? How strong was the team that beat them? Seems like a rabbit hole to me.

Since UCONN usually runs the table or maybe loses one OOC game, this is a unique year for them. But it’s probably not for the Committee. And, since they will receive very little credit for beating BE opponents but a lot of demerits for losing to one of them, this is a year where you don’t spend any time worrying about regions, brackets or seeds. Just get the team ready. Just play whoever is on the floor and just beat them.

 

[msf22b]

I'm not particularly concerned with "style points."
And hard to be leftward of Tony

But I would not be surprised if we have a margin of 25+
throughout both tourney's ...up into the final-4

The personnel and approach is finally in place
Enjoy watching them compete.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

The WCBB world wants in the worst way for UConn to get smacked down whenever possible. I'm not going to worry about it. Let them have their fun and underseed UConn. The only losers are whomever gets put in their bracket.

Big mistake. UConn would be a heavy underdog against SC. Need to get out of their bracket.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

No. They just need Iowa State to leave the Big 12 tournament early.

Speaking of that, how on earth is Iowa State a 2-seed in the first place? They've been blow out twice by both Baylor and Texas. Their best wins are against Iowa early in the season before Iowa was playing at a high level and two against OU.

 

[Plebe]

Speaking of that, how on earth is Iowa State a 2-seed in the first place? They've been blow out twice by both Baylor and Texas. Their best wins are against Iowa early in the season before Iowa was playing at a high level and two against OU.

Three wins over the committee's top 16, no losses outside the top 10.

Texas, for example, has better wins but has losses to Texas Tech and Kansas.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

Three wins over the committee's top 16, no losses outside the top 10.

Texas, for example, has better wins but has losses to Texas Tech and Kansas.

OK, but it would be somewhat hard to lose to teams outside the top-10 with the teams outside the top-10 Iowa State has played including Omaha, Southern, Charlotte, Drake, UMass, Longwood, Northern Iowa, and Prairie View, and even then they beat NIU by one point.

Meanwhile, UConn is likely still paying for the loss to Villanova, which they do have to own, but 'Nova is 18-2 since Siegrist's return. It's like UConn losing to "unranked" Oregon even though the Oregon team UConn lost to is probably a top-20 team.

 

[hoopsfan22]

Big mistake. UConn would be a heavy underdog against SC. Need to get out of their bracket.

How big of an underdog you think? 10 pts? 20?

 

[Sluconn Husky]

How big of an underdog you think? 10 pts? 20?

Don't know line-wise, but with such a severe rebounding disadvantage and Paige not yet showing that she's herself at this point, pretty heavy.

 

[hoopsfan22]

Don't know line-wise, but with such a severe rebounding disadvantage and Paige not yet showing that she's herself at this point, pretty heavy.

Paige has 3 weeks before that potential matchup. Hoping for a couple of big games from her this weekend to get back to "normal." I think if her and Azzi are rolling this team will be tough to beat.

 

[Plebe]

OK, but it would be somewhat hard to lose to teams outside the top-10 with the teams outside the top-10 Iowa State has played including Omaha, Southern, Charlotte, Drake, UMass, Longwood, Northern Iowa, and Prairie View, and even then they beat NIU by one point.

Meanwhile, UConn is likely still paying for the loss to Villanova, which they do have to own, but 'Nova is 18-2 since Siegrist's return. It's like UConn losing to "unranked" Oregon even though the Oregon team UConn lost to is probably a top-20 team.

So you're only going to mention the bad teams Iowa State beat? Any way you slice it, their slate of quality wins (OUx2, KUx2, KSUx2, plus Iowa), while not overwhelming, is stronger than UConn's and then consider it's without the losses to the likes of Georgia Tech and Oregon and Villanova.

I think Nova should make the tournament, but who other than UConn have they beaten? Bubble teams, basically. Oregon State plus some other Big East teams. Unfortunately, they followed up their win over UConn with a loss to Seton Hall.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

So you're only going to mention the bad teams Iowa State beat? Any way you slice it, their slate of quality wins (OUx2, KUx2, KSUx2, plus Iowa), while not overwhelming, is stronger than UConn's and then consider it's without the losses to the likes of Georgia Tech and Oregon and Villanova.

I think Nova should make the tournament, but who other than UConn have they beaten? Bubble teams, basically. Oregon State plus some other Big East teams. Unfortunately, they followed up their win over UConn with a loss to Seton Hall.

Georgia Tech was recently ranked 11th and Oregon is a top-20 team when healthy which they were when they faced UConn. The Cyclones' top players have barely missed a minute this year. Not sure the same can be said about UConn in their losses.

 

[Plebe]

Georgia Tech was recently ranked 11th and Oregon is a top-20 team when healthy which they were when they faced UConn. The Cyclones' top players have barely missed a minute this year. Not sure the same can be said about UConn in their losses.

You're quite the king of cherry-picking.

Even more recently, Georgia Tech has lost to Miami (twice), Florida State, Notre Dame and Virginia Tech. So no, they are not the 11th-best team in the country.

And healthy Oregon, since beating UConn, has lost to Arizona State, Oregon State and Colorado.

The above is why neither Georgia Tech nor Oregon are in the latest top 16.

FWIW not that it should tip the scales of the discussion, but Iowa State has had key players out for at least two of their losses that I know of. With or without that being the case, their overall resume of wins and losses is stronger than UConn's.

 

[VA Huskie]

You're quite the king of cherry-picking.

Even more recently, Georgia Tech has lost to Miami (twice), Florida State, Notre Dame and Virginia Tech. So no, they are not the 11th-best team in the country.

And healthy Oregon, since beating UConn, has lost to Arizona State, Oregon State and Colorado.

The above is why neither Georgia Tech nor Oregon are in the latest top 16.

FWIW not that it should tip the scales of the discussion, but Iowa State has had key players out for at least two of their losses that I know of. With or without that being the case, their overall resume of wins and losses is stronger than UConn's.

I can’t disagree with your argument. That being said, I’d sure love a scenario where we were to play Iowa St. I think we’d beat them by at least 15-20 points!

 

[Tonyc]

Let me tell ya somethin. I want UConn in Bridgeport. If they dont get there the 85% of the tickets sold I will fight with to get our money back. Then we will go to where UConn is and I will tell you this UConn will not loose. Can you imagine UConn going to SC's region and winning?????????? I dont think the NCAA will do that and they wont send UConn to Stanfords region either. Can you imagine what would happen??? UConn in Bridgeport and then Look Out For Tomorrow.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

You're quite the king of cherry-picking.

Even more recently, Georgia Tech has lost to Miami (twice), Florida State, Notre Dame and Virginia Tech. So no, they are not the 11th-best team in the country.

And healthy Oregon, since beating UConn, has lost to Arizona State, Oregon State and Colorado.

The above is why neither Georgia Tech nor Oregon are in the latest top 16.

FWIW not that it should tip the scales of the discussion, but Iowa State has had key players out for at least two of their losses that I know of. With or without that being the case, their overall resume of wins and losses is stronger than UConn's.

I'm not particuarly amused by the now two personal comments you've made. I'm done with this subject.

 

[TCC Kid]

It has always struck me that whatever analytics are involved in setting up the bracket for the Big Dance, the committee invariably leaves itself room for “rationalization” whenever it’s convenient.

So here’s my rationalization. At the start of the season, SC, Stanford & UConn were heads & tails above every other WBB team. UConn’s injuries and illness knocked them down for awhile. But with everyone back & healthy, the Huskies are once again among the top 3 teams in the nation.

Injuries supposedly are factored into seeding decisions, but how much of a role they play will come down to a decision by the selection committee that they will undoubtedly rationalize in whatever way they deem appropriate.

Forever and a day, some schools as in ND, UConn, Stanford, etc. when they had bad breaks i.e. Paige unexpectedly injured when they (ala Paige) returned healthy with a boat load of new proven in games talent the "committee" evaluates that in a positive vain. Geno is the Master of not only coaching but in getting a decent place for the Big Dance. Uconn will get ranked/rated where this team deserves.
I do, however, agree that a superb showing, even in style points, can hardly hurt Uconn's chances.

 

[TCC Kid]

Let me tell ya somethin. I want UConn in Bridgeport. If they dont get there the 85% of the tickets sold I will fight with to get our money back. Then we will go to where UConn is and I will tell you this UConn will not loose. Can you imagine UConn going to SC's region and winning?????????? I dont think the NCAA will do that and they wont send UConn to Stanfords region either. Can you imagine what would happen??? UConn in Bridgeport and then Look Out For Tomorrow.

You are either: Tough, Mean, a great Uconn fan (I pick the latter).

 

[BobbyJ]

Let me tell ya somethin. I want UConn in Bridgeport. If they dont get there the 85% of the tickets sold I will fight with to get our money back. Then we will go to where UConn is and I will tell you this UConn will not loose. Can you imagine UConn going to SC's region and winning?????????? I dont think the NCAA will do that and they wont send UConn to Stanfords region either. Can you imagine what would happen??? UConn in Bridgeport and then Look Out For Tomorrow.

On what grounds? Because you guessed wrong that UConn would be in that regional? Good luck with that.

 

[JordyG]

Speaking of that, how on earth is Iowa State a 2-seed in the first place? They've been blow out twice by both Baylor and Texas. Their best wins are against Iowa early in the season before Iowa was playing at a high level and two against OU.

When I find out you'll be the first to know.

You are either: Tough, Mean, a great Uconn fan (I pick the latter).

I would add committed, PO'd, and my kind of fan.

 

[JordyG]

Let me tell ya somethin. I want UConn in Bridgeport. If they dont get there the 85% of the tickets sold I will fight with to get our money back. Then we will go to where UConn is and I will tell you this UConn will not loose. Can you imagine UConn going to SC's region and winning?????????? I dont think the NCAA will do that and they wont send UConn to Stanfords region either. Can you imagine what would happen??? UConn in Bridgeport and then Look Out For Tomorrow.

Get 'em @Tonyc!

 

[TCC Kid]

There is another element that does not bode well for UConn’s opponents in the BE tournament. UConn’s 9-player rotation has exactly 2 games playing together. While they look very good, they are not as good as they could be. Geno will use the BE tournament to give his 9-player rotation as much time as possible to work together. Mop up minutes for Piath & Amari will be limited.

Geno with the BE will set his rotation for the NCAA T. I ask, because I don't see as many games as you and others do: How many teams in the BE or NCAA T have seen this level of defense? If they haven't they will be shocked. I hope DeBerry and Gabriel get lots of minutes. For their minimal time they are doing well. BUT, nothing compares to competition against lots of the best, top defense, top offense.

 

[KingKong139]

Unfortunately the committee wouldn't think twice about underseeing UConn. Recent history proves that, like in 2019 when they were a two-seed with one fewer loss than Louisville, whom they ended up beating in Albany anyway to advance to the Final Four.

So yes, they could very well end up in Greensboro, even if they win out and pass the eye test doing it. But the biggest reason that may not happen is because of how deeply unfair it would be to South Carolina. Think about it. In that scenario, the overall number one seed with the player of the year would be little more than even money (real-world odds) to even get to the Final Four. The committee would need to take a very deep breath before indulging itself with such a move. And that may be what saves the day for South Carolina, and more importantly for the fans.

Keep in mind in 2019 we played in a 2 (1?) bid conference.

 

[HopJim]

Geno has great respect for his fellow coaches in the BE. He will do anything he can to promote the conference. With that said, UConn needs to put on a show this coming weekend during the BE Tournament at the Mohegan Sun, even if some BE teams get bulldozed in the process.

As everyone knows, the last committee reveal prior to March 13 Selection Sunday has UConn as a 3rd seed, 9th overall, slotted for a potential Elite 8 game with SC in the Greensboro Region. For UConn to end up in the Bridgeport Region, the Huskies must be a 2-seed. With Iowa St’s bad loss to Baylor at home on Monday night, that may have already happened. Another loss by Iowa St, Michigan or LSU in their respective conference tournaments certainly wouldn’t hurt. But UConn can’t leave it up to fate.

MOV or “Style Points” are not supposed to be a major factor in tournament seeding decisions. But in all honesty, why even have a selection committee in the first place, if “Style Points” or the “Eye Test” are not a consideration? Some bright computer wiz could just write a program, feed in all the information and out pops a 68-team bracket. Charlie Crème and all the other pundits lose their jobs and there is nothing for fans to argue about. IMO, after the committee looks at all the numbers, NET, SOS, injuries, etc., the last few close calls come down to the style points and the eye test.

I believe the Huskies will come out with their foot on the gas on Saturday in Uncasville and I don’t expect them to let up until the championship game is over on Monday evening. Using their 9-player deep rotation, UConn will pressure opponents relentlessly on defense, while pushing the ball up the court in transition, looking to maximize both the score and MOV. If UConn is lucky, they might just earn a rematch with Villanova in the finals, so they can make it abundantly clear that the February 9th game without Paige, Liv & Caroline was quite simply a fluke.

Some might say it doesn’t matter if or when UConn plays SC…..Greensboro, Minneapolis, wherever. The Huskies are a better team than they were in the Bahamas, so let’s bring on the Gamecocks and have at it. Honestly, I’m OK with that way of thinking. But I sure wouldn’t mind a few more games to build momentum, particularly at the friendly confines of Webster Bank Arena in Bridgeport, CT.

Agree that it should not matter who Huskies play. Team is peaking at the perfect time and should have 3 Big East games to fine tune the current lineups.
That being said, it would not bother me if similar to Britney Griner's and Baylor's unexpected past loss, for any of the top ranked teams, South Carolina and Stanford in particular, to lose before they play UConn. That #2 seed could help. The NCAA's are tough enough - any help will be appreciated.

 

[Glenn]

After reading this thread, I have a few observations.
1. Style points just means margin of victory (MOV).
2. Computers (NET, Massey) and analysts that use MOV consistently put UConn as a 2 seed, and have for a while--even though computers do not know about our injuries.
3. The Committee does not seem to put much weight on MOV, which is why UConn is a 3 seed, why they rank ISU over Texas, despite Texas blowing them out twice (the computers prefer Texas and its body of work), and other examples.
4. Historically including MOV yields a better prediction of who will win a game--so the computers are onto something--but the Committee appears to have a strong bias against this. This is also true in football, where the computer guys have been required to do sub-optimal ratings without MOV for that Committee.

 

[HopJim]

While I understand the focus of this post, it really doesn't matter. Geno wants every lineup and team playing full speed every game. More compelling points to him are to get the biggest lead as soon as possible so he can give his injured players a rest and provide Piath and DeBerry more experience. The seeding will take care of itself.

 

[warbler1055]

Since the next UConn game is next Saturday, this is a good way to voice my feelings:
1. I actually agree with TonyC although he is way over optimistic for me. I do not want to go to Bridgeport to see other teams except for UConn. I do like WBB but my team is not playing in Bridgeport why bother.
2. Style points or not, we will know soon enough. There are a lot of conference championship games to be determined. UConn will probably get a 2 seed and possibly Bridgeport. The BE is a weak conference although some teams are getting better. UConn was always the standout be it in the AAC or BE. No FF and NC for BE or AAC except for UConn.
3. Power5 got football tv money and dominate the selection committee. So UConn is an enigma to them.
4. Truth be told, UConn only start to have all players back for the last 2 games and possibly the next 3 games. Caroline, Ododa, Fudd were walking wounded. And of course PB, our national player of the year is time limited (15 minutes to be exact). Fudd and Caroline are freshmen and have not been NCAA tournament tested. If the team can really gel in the next 3 BE games and be NCAA ready then we can be real NASTY. But so much depends on the potential of this team.