Day of Reckoning For #1 Seeds

[YKCornelius]

From my perch, today is the Day of Reckoning for all of the #1 seeds from the Second Reveal. If one of them loses today, I think they will relinquish their spot on the top line. If two of them lose, then it opens the door for both ND and UConn to replace them (providing the Huskies and the Irish win their tournaments). However, if THREE of them lose today - which seems to be very unlikely but quite possible - then what happens in their tournament's finals could keep one on the top rung (or even two if ND does not win the ACC).

Now, at the risk of chasing the white rabbit down the hole, imagine if all FOUR #1 seeds lose today. In that scenario, methinks its possible for the Huskies to find themselves as the #1 overall - certainly in ND stumbles as well in their tournament. As Matt Damon said in Good Will Hunting, "How do you like them apples?"

How will the legs of their jump shooters fare in their semi-finals? Everyone of them had a tough quarterfinal yesterday. Should be very interesting.....

 

[Tonyc]

I gotta say UConn and ND are the two best offensive teams in WCBB. Both have at least one go to player. ND has been struggling as of late while UConn has come together. All the other top 8 seeds have been struggling. My top 8 teams in this order are

UConn
ND
Texas
USC
Followed by
SC
UCLA
NC State
TCU

 

[Plebe]

I'm not sure how grounded in reality this narrative is.

Records in Quad 1 contests:

• Texas 13-2
• UCLA 12-2
• USC 12-2
• S. Car. 14-3
  
  
• UConn 5-3
• ND 6-4

 

[HuskyNan]

I'm not sure how grounded in reality this narrative is.

Records in Quad 1 contests:

• Texas 13-2
• UCLA 12-2
• USC 12-2
• S. Car. 14-3
  
  
• UConn 5-3
• ND 6-4

That’s not the only criterion. If a top seed gets upset early, or beaten badly, the optics matter to the selection committee. Early season losses are better than late season ones

 

[oldhusky]

That’s not the only criterion. If a top seed gets upset early, or beaten badly, the optics matter to the selection committee. Early season losses are better than late season ones

I believe that is true. In essence the top 6 or 7 teams have been very close and have exchanged positions frequently during the season. no team has locked up a number 1 seed "yet", but could soon. What I do think is very probable is that the winner of the SEC and Big 10 tournaments get two of the top 2 spots, assuming that winner is USC or UCLA in the Big 10, or South Carolina, Texas or LSU.

If the ACC winner is Notre Dame they have a good chance, but suppose someone else wins the ACC. In that case I don't think another ACC team would move ahead of Uconn, and they have a chance of moving ahead of the second place team in the SEC or Big 10 if that team is unimpressive in their tournament IMO.

 

[Plebe]

That’s not the only criterion. If a top seed gets upset early, or beaten badly, the optics matter to the selection committee. Early season losses are better than late season ones

UConn lost to Tennessee in February, which is not early in the season.

Texas today plays LSU, a projected 2 seed. Even in the event of a lopsided loss, the likelihood that Texas would drop from overall #1 to completely off the 1 seed line is exceedingly close to zero.

 

[HuskyNan]

UConn lost to Tennessee in February, which is not early in the season.

Texas today plays LSU, a projected 2 seed. Even in the event of a lopsided loss, the likelihood that Texas would drop from overall #1 to completely off the 1 seed line is exceedingly close to zero.

I don’t remember mentioning UConn in my post nor are the Huskies currently a 1 seed

 

[DefenseBB]

That’s not the only criterion. If a top seed gets upset early, or beaten badly, the optics matter to the selection committee. Early season losses are better than late season ones

The Big Ten and SEC are now in the semifinal aspect so the option to get upset early is not viable. SC plays Oklahoma who is a quality team so not sure losing to them is a bad loss
Texas plays LSU without Johnson so while a questionable loss it wouldn’t be devastating
UCLA plays Ohio State, another quality opponent as does USC with playing Michigan so again losses against quality Quad 1 opponents still has them with strong Quad 1 records and strong NET vs UConn beating less than quality teams like SJU, Marquette/Nova and then Creighton.

I get the “hope” aspect but the reality is these other teams “body of work” is better.

 

[Plebe]

I don’t remember mentioning UConn in my post nor are the Huskies currently a 1 seed

The OP was about UConn's prospects of becoming a 1 seed in the event of an upset today, and such is the context of my remarks. UConn's late season loss would be as subject to extra committee scrutiny as anyone else's.

 

[bballnut90]

I'm not sure how grounded in reality this narrative is.

Records in Quad 1 contests:

• Texas 13-2
• UCLA 12-2
• USC 12-2
• S. Car. 14-3
  
  
• UConn 5-3
• ND 6-4

Top 4 all have quite a bit of breathing room as noted. The only one really at a major risk is South Carolina if they were to lose to Oklahoma in South Carolina (which is probably the most unlikely upset). The other 3 are all 2 loss teams with a bevy of good wins.

Notre Dame could make noise if they win the ACC, picking up great wins over both Duke and NC State. If they win out, South Carolina wins out (meaning they'll pick up 2 more wins against Oklahoma and either Texas/LSU), and UCLA loses today to Ohio State (unlikely but possible), then I think UCLA could find themselves on the 2 line. But right now I think only those 5 teams have a shot at a #1 right now.

UCONN could surpass Notre Dame for the top #2 seed if they lose today, but again, I don't see that as much of an advantage being the top 2 seed since the top 5-6 teams are so evenly matched.

This is the most wide open field that I've seen in following the sport nearly 30 years, where the top 6 all have a real shot to win it all, but the teams in the 7-15 range (and even further down if Tennessee plays like they did earlier in the year) could also be Final Four threats on any given day. I think it's going to be a wild tournament.

 

[Cornell Lt]

ND gets beat by Duke and looked horrible in doing so.

 

[oldude]

ND gets beat by Duke and looked horrible in doing so.

I wonder who might benefit from that loss?

 

[YKCornelius]

The OP was about UConn's prospects of becoming a 1 seed in the event of an upset today, and such is the context of my remarks. UConn's late season loss would be as subject to extra committee scrutiny as anyone else's.

Plebe (et al), I guess we shall see if the discussion even has merit after today. I fully get the argument about Quad 1 wins vs Quad 1 losses. However, let's be honest that the Quad 1 Wins v losses only carried so much weight in the first two reveals. Said differently, the committee didn't put the best Q1 record in the top slot, the next best in the second slot, and so on. Hence, it is reasonable to conclude there is more to the argument than Q1 record.

With regard to the UConn loss to the Lady Vols, that occurred prior to the first reveal, so it is also reasonable to conclude it was already factored into the committee's decisions on the second reveal. What we can absolutely see is that the committee dropped the Gamecocks from #2 overall to #5 overall following their loss to UConn, and moved the Huskies up from #7 overall to #6 overall. The conclusion here is that a loss against a quality opponent can indeed change things up.

Finally, let's be clear about what I originally posted - the prospect of a #1 seed losing today and relinquishing their position. The only mention of UConn ascending to a number one seed was if one of two things happened: (a) two #1 seeds losing, or (b) all four #1 seeds losing.

 

[fomalhaut]

Record in Quad 1 is one of the factors used in seeding, but it certainly isn't the only one. NET ranking is supposed to be a major factor too.

 

[Plebe]

Finally, let's be clear about what I originally posted - the prospect of a #1 seed losing today and relinquishing their position. The only mention of UConn ascending to a number one seed was if one of two things happened: (a) two #1 seeds losing, or (b) all four #1 seeds losing.

You stated: “If one of them loses today, I think they will relinquish their spot on the top line.”

Maybe you didn't mean to imply UConn specifically could be the one to assume such spot, but you gave every impression of implying it.

 

[YKCornelius]

You stated: “If one of them loses today, I think they will relinquish their spot on the top line.”

Maybe you didn't mean to imply UConn specifically could be the one to assume such spot, but you gave every impression of implying it.

Nah, it wasn't my implication. It was your inference.

Tell you what. We will see what the end of the day brings, and then I will come back on this thread and tell you where I think UConn will end up. No incorrect inferences will be necessary.

 

[Vowelguy]

With UCLA and SC up big I think they’ve locked down the last two one seeds.
ND loss may allow UConn the chance to move up to 5th overall.

 

[packwrap]

Record in Quad 1 is one of the factors used in seeding, but it certainly isn't the only one. NET ranking is supposed to be a major factor too.

I'm not sure NET ranking is a criteria, NET is just used to determine the Quads.

 

[packwrap]

With UCLA and SC up big I think they’ve locked down the last two one seeds.
ND loss may allow UConn the chance to move up to 5th overall.

UConn highly likely now to be #5.

Even if we did somehow advanced to #4, we would play the same team in elite 8. #4 vs #5. (Unless some shuffling took place to move same conf teams around, but unlikely)

 

[Plebe]

Even if we did somehow advanced to #4, we would play the same team in elite 8. #4 vs #5. (Unless some shuffling took place to move same conf teams around, but unlikely)

Agreed. It could have a bigger impact on our Sweet 16 matchup. In theory it’s preferable to play a 4 seed instead of a 3, plus there is likely to be a lot of shuffling behind us due to conference conflicts (hence as the top 2 seed we wouldn’t be guaranteed to play the lowest 3 seed).

 

[packwrap]

Wow, UCLA up 40 vs tOSU! UCLA shooting 55% from field and three.

This will be a big factor for all top8/top16 teams. If someone gets smoking hot from outside, there is just not much to be done about it.

 

[bballnut90]

UConn highly likely now to be #5.

Even if we did somehow advanced to #4, we would play the same team in elite 8. #4 vs #5. (Unless some shuffling took place to move same conf teams around, but unlikely)

The main difference is that the 3 seeds look a lot more dangerous than 4 seeds IMO. I think UCONN is locked into a 2 seed though.

 

[ConnMotors]

Well, UConn needs some help here. SoCal needs to beat up on UCLA and we need Texas to put a hammer on SoCar. And, UC needs to win out. This is the only way we may get lucky and a 1 Seed.

 

[Tonyc]

UConn has 3 losses. 1 loss since Jan 1. UConn is healthy now and a much better team then the team that lost those 3 games. I believe this UConn healthy team is the team to beat. All this talk about Texas USC UCLA SC which are all very good teams but imo not as complete as UConn. JMO

 

[Heytherego]

UConn highly likely now to be #5.

Even if we did somehow advanced to #4, we would play the same team in elite 8. #4 vs #5. (Unless some shuffling took place to move same conf teams around, but unlikely)

Would rather be #6 overall. Seems SC will be #4 overall and would absolutely not want to see them again

 

[YKCornelius]

Nah, it wasn't my implication. It was your inference.

Tell you what. We will see what the end of the day brings, and then I will come back on this thread and tell you where I think UConn will end up. No incorrect inferences will be necessary.

So, here's my thoughts:
First, I believe UConn will be given the #5 overall seed after winning the Big East tournament.
Second, I think South Carolina will beat Texas and receive the overall #1 seed in the Birmingham One Region.
Third, I think UCLA will beat USC (by double digits) and receive the #2 overall seed in the Spokane Two Region.
Fourth, I think the committee will place Texas in the overall #3 and keep them on the other side of the bracket in the Spokane Three Region. That way, if SC and Texas meet for a fourth time it will be in the NCAA championship.
Fifth, following the same logic, I think USC will be placed in the Birmingham Four Region as the overall #4. A fourth meeting between them and UCLA would only occur in the NCAA championship.
Sixth, on the second seed line along side the Huskies, I think we will see TCU whether they win or lose the Big 12 championship, NC State regardless of whether they win or lose the ACC championship, and then either Duke or Notre Dame, depending on how Duke fares in the championship game.
Seventh, I believe LSU drops to a third seed, alongside either Duke/ND, Ohio State, and either Baylor if they win the Big 12 championship or Oklahoma if Baylor loses the Big 12 final.

Regardless of where UConn ends up, I think they have all the tools to go all the way to #12.

 

[bballnut90]

Well, UConn needs some help here. SoCal needs to beat up on UCLA and we need Texas to put a hammer on SoCar. And, UC needs to win out. This is the only way we may get lucky and a 1 Seed.

There’s really no shot at this point. Both teams have far better wins and overall resumes than UCONN does.

 

[bballnut90]

Would rather be #6 overall. Seems SC will be #4 overall and would absolutely not want to see them again

I actually think SC would be an optimal matchup for UCONN compared to the others. SC isn’t a great rebounding team and UCONN would have a lot of confidence going into the game after beating them by nearly 30 in their last matchup. I’d expect it to be a lot closer this time but UCONN absolutely shredded them. The other 3 all have big strong posts that can score which would pose a problem for UCONN IMO.

 

[freshler40]

I actually think SC would be an optimal matchup for UCONN compared to the others. SC isn’t a great rebounding team and UCONN would have a lot of confidence going into the game after beating them by nearly 30 in their last matchup. I’d expect it to be a lot closer this time but UCONN absolutely shredded them. The other 3 all have big strong posts that can score which would pose a problem for UCONN IMO.

While the bigs of the other top teams are excellent, those teams are not deep at the five. We can go big or quick and small as well as deep at most positions. We are peaking and generally healthy.

 

[oldhusky]

While the bigs of the other top teams are excellent, those teams are not deep at the five. We can go big or quick and small as well as deep at most positions. We are peaking and generally healthy.

Texas is as deep at the 5 as any team could hope for with two great players there.