Creighton vs UConn - Game Analysis

[hoopsnloops32]

Your arithmetic is off. Azzi was injured in the Notre Dame game on December 4. Christmas Day will be 3 weeks. January 15 will be 6 weeks. That is mid-January. Even that return date would give her plenty of time to shed the rust before the Tennessee and South Carolina games.

Late January is 8 weeks that’s my point. That’s too late in the season to return after 8 weeks out. 6 weeks is honestly pushing it and ifs she’s out that long it’ll be unlikely she’ll return to form though may be possible.

 

[hoopsnloops32]

Mid January would be 6 weeks (January 15) since the injury. January 29 would be 8 weeks. My 100% guesstimate has Azzi returning between the 8th and 22nd.
Anytime earlier would be gravy.
And I am just guessing here, and have nothing to base it on.Anytime earlier would be gravy.
And I am just guessing here, and have nothing to base it o

Yea and far too late to rejoin the team successfully. Exactly my point.

 

[Tonyc]

When Azzi is cleared by the doctors the coaching staff will ask her how she feels and when she feels she’s ready to go they will play her. Then most likely bring her along until she thinks she can go. Then all opponents beware.

 

[uconnfan68]

Yea and far too late to rejoin the team successfully. Exactly my point.

You have any idea who she is? She’ll be ready whenever they tell her it’s time.

 

[hoopsnloops32]

You have any idea who she is? She’ll be ready whenever they tell her it’s time.

Thats not how knee injuries work. Recovering is just as much mental as physical.

 

[DrummerDee]

We had the same huge height advantage in the second game last season and Creighton still dominated, at least in the first half. It was a combination of hitting their 3s and out-hustling us on every loose ball.

After the first game, Jim Flanery said he hadn't expected Caroline to be such a dominant player. I'm sure he game-planned for her in the second game. I think a good performance from her may prove really useful.

Last year's Edwards isn't this year's Edwards. THAT is a huge difference.

 

[Cuango]

Then kiss the season goodbye- or at least a chance for a final four. Mid to late January is far too late for Azzi to recover back to her November self and gel with the team. That’s 8-10 weeks of being out, psychologically that’s far too much of a set back.

I disagree. I’m sure she continues to be mentally engaged with the team and is (even now) doing some things in practice. I think she will likely need 10-14 days of healthy practice but I’m confident we haven’t seen the last of Azzi this season (and by Azzi, I mean the one we saw earlier this season)
The only way I don’t see that, is if she has lingering physical issues, which is unlikely as they would not clear her. She will, of course, have to develop a trust in her knee again, but hopefully that will not take too long. When she does come back and we finally have a fully (for this season) healthy team, I believe we will be a force to be reckoned with, and a lot of teams are going to be hoping they’re not in our bracket!

 

[Bone Dog]

Hahaha!!

Paige came back just before the BE tournament in late February and we made it to the NC game. I suspect if Azzi returns in mid January, she’ll have plenty of time to fit herself into a team that has learned to win without her.

 

[Skeets]

Is there any extra time? They left for the break this morning, I expect, and will return on the 26th. I think CD said they'd fly out on the 27th. If so, this gives them maybe one practice to get ready. I hope Caroline feels even better after the rest, but otherwise, I suspect we will face them more or less as we are right now.

And that is why I highly doubt we will see Azzi for a week or 2. Based on CD's comments Azzi is not practicing yet and I would certainly want her to practice for a few days (starting slow and gradually building up) to ensure that there is no swelling or stiffness the following day.

 

[oldhusky]

Your arithmetic is off. Azzi was injured in the Notre Dame game on December 4. Christmas Day will be 3 weeks. January 15 will be 6 weeks. That is mid-January. Even that return date would give her plenty of time to shed the rust before the Tennessee and South Carolina games.

Agreed, and even if she didn't knock the rust off by the big Tennessee and South Carolina games, that certainly doesn't rule out a Final Four. It could affect our ratings and seedings, and affect the odds of getting to the Final Four to a degree, but the biggest determining factor to us getting to the Final Four will be how we are playing and if we are healthy by the second weekend or so of the NCAA tournament.

By then Azzi's injury should be a non-factor, Dorka won't be worrying about her finger, Aaliyah might feel confident enough to take off the mask, and Caroline might resemble the player from last year. We could be a substantially better team by then, and even with a relatively late return for Azzi, a #2 seed is very achievable.

In fact I think being ranked 5th or 6th is a pretty good goal, that might get you one of the first 2 number 2 seeds, which might keep us out of the same bracket as South Carolina or Stanford. If healthy I could see us actually being favored against the last two 1 seeds in that case because our overall rank would include the injury ridden stretch, and the odds makers would be looking at where are you now.

When Azzi comes back can affect our interim and regular season ratings, but even the pessimistic estimates would give her plenty of time to be ready by tournament time. The bigger question is if our bad luck with injuries is over, but assuming we don't get any more major bad news, we look to be much stronger when it will count most.

 

[jabstep]

First and foremost, I wish everyone here a very Merry Christmas and a happy holiday season!!! I am throwing this up a little early as we all get busy during the next week or so with family and friends. What stands out for me in this game is that Creighton takes care of the basketball. They average on 12 turnovers a game. Importantly, however, is that they only turned the ball over 6 times against Stanford the number 2 ranked team in the country. They did lose that game 72 - 59 only by 13 points but, they were also able to contain somewhat both Cameron Brink to 14 points and Haley Jones to only 16 points. And, they were able to hold Stanford to only 72 points which is 12 points below their average. So, their defense is somewhat tenacious. When UConn has a full compliment of players it can be somewhat of an offensive juggernaut but, Creighton does appear to be a well coached and prepared team. Creighton is also a tested team having played five top 25 teams. They are 3 and 2 against top five teams having lost to number 2 - Stanford (72-59) and number 21 Arkansas (85-75). They beat Number 22 Nebraska (72-51); Number 23 South Dakota (78-69) and Number 25 Villanova (67-46). They also took a loss to unranked St. Johns. I think UConn must bring their A game as Creighton doesn't appear to have any quit in them and they will be prepared...plus it cannot be understated that we will be traveling to Creighton right after the Christmas break.

I believe Creighton will start: Rachel Saunders a 5'9" Graduate Guard; Lauren Jensen 5'10" Jr. Guard; Molly Mogensen 5'7" Jr. Guard; Morgan Maly 6'1" Guard/Forward and Emma Ronsiek 6'1"Jr. Forward. They will bring Carly Bachelor 6'0" Sr. Guard / Forward off the bench. They do not have a player over 6'1" so our height may cause some issues for them but, they were able to hang in there with Stanford in spite of being height challenged.

Dorka Juhasz vs Emma Ronsiels - Emma averages 12.2 points per game and 4.7 rebounds per game and has started in all of Creighton's games. She tends to pitch in with 2.6 assists and 1.4 three pointers per game... However, she will be out-sized by Dorka who at 6'5" will make life difficult for Emma on both sides of the floor. Dorka has only played 4 games and is averaging 11.3 points and 10 rebounds per game...I believe she will be able to get the better of her undersized opponent. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Aaliyah Edwards vs Morgan Maly - Morgan is Creighton's biggest offensive weapon at 6'1" she averages 17.7 points a game and grabs 6.4 rebounds per game...she can hit the 3 pointer, averaging 3 per game which unfortunately, will have the effect of pulling Edwards out from the basket to defend the three. Morgan has started every game for Creighton. On the other hand, as I have said since the beginning of the season Aaliyah if she stays healthy will be an All-Star at the end of the season. She is playing great now...has great footwork around the basket and has a nice soft touch. Aaliyah stats are similar to Morgan's (excluding the three point shooting). Aaliyah's 17.5 points and 9.1 rebounds per game to go along with her 3 assists per game will give her a slight advantage over Morgan with regards to impact on the game. SLIGHT ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl vs Molly Mogensen - This guard match-up should be a good one. Molly averages 9.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1 steal and 3.5 assists per game. She is only 5'7" but she hustles, plays 33.4 minutes per game, has started every game for Creighton and is the motor of the Creighton team. Nika is UConn's counterpart to Molly. Nika is averaging 6.5 points but, as was demonstrated against Seton Hall she can knock down the three if left open (4-5 against the Pirates). She also averages 3.5 rebounds, 1.5 steals and 10.1 assists per game. Nika makes this team go. While Molly may average more points and rebounds than Nika...Nika's 10.1 assists allow her to have a bigger impact on the game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Aubrey Griffin vs Lauren Jensen - Lauren is Creighton's second biggest scorer. She also contributes with 2 three pointers, 2.8 assists and 4.2 rebounds per game. Aubrey can get to the basket, is a great slasher and has a knack for getting herself open which helps her to average 12.7 points per game, her athleticism allows her to impact the game in other ways which is why she averages 7.4 rebounds, 1.5 steals and 1.5 assists per game. Lauren will have to work hard to contain Aubrey which will impact her ability to maintain her averages on the offensive end. SLIGHT ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Lou Lopez-Senechal vs Rachel Saunders - Rachel was not available at the beginning of the season so Carly Bachelor got the starts but, since Rachel has been back (4 games) she has been starting. I believe when Creighton wants to go bigger they will bring in Carly 6'0" to replace Rachel 5'9". Rachel averages 6.3 points, 2.0 rebounds, 2 steals and 2.74 assists per game...she is not currently a threat from three. She is a solid player. When Carly is in the game she averages 6.6 points, 6 rebounds, 1 steal and 1.6 assists. However it should be noted that there are only 40 minutes of playing time and each averages about 25 minutes per game. Lou our God-sent graduate transfer has been spectacular: Averaging 17.5 points per game with 3 threes. She has contributed 3.2 rebounds and 1.5 assists per game. No matter who Creighton puts in to offset Lou's numbers I believe that Lou will have a greater impact on the game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Bench - Creighton: Kennedy Townsend, Jayme Horan, Mallory Blake vs Caroline Ducharme, Ayanna Patterson, Amari DeBerry, Ines Bettencourt - Creighton brings 14.1 points, 12.5 rebounds, 1.5 three pointers, 4.5 assists and 2.2 steals off the bench while UConn brings 15.3 points, 9.7 rebounds, 1.4 three pointers, 4.6 assists and 1.3 steals per game off their bench. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Intangibles - playing away at Creighton, first game after the holidays, playing against a well-coached, tested team... ADVANTAGE - CREIGHTON

Coaching - I hope Geno is fully recovered, while Creighton is well-coached I like our coaching staff: Geno "Hall of Fame" coach; Chis "15 and 0 without Geno"; Jamelle Elliot, Morgan Valley... ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE: UConn - 78
Creighton - 64

MOV: 14

First of all Merry Christmas and a Happy Healthy Holidays to you and all Boneyarders. I absolutely love you pre game analysis. I have done it in the past in big games like against SC and Stanford. If we can limit our silly turnovers such as walking and throwing passes to overplayed players. We will win by 20 points. the turnovers usually happens on our first pass to the right corner wing or the right elbow Big.
1 The wing has to jabstep towards the hoop and then come to meet the pass and not be running without dribbling the ball.
2. The Big has to come and meet the ball if they are being guarded tightly. And no loopy soft passes if they are being guarded closely. Other teams know our offense and the defensive wing players are cheating on this pass and stealing it.
3. The point guard must use ball fakes to move defenders.
4. Don't pick up your dribble when being pressured without knowing where to pass the ball.
5. Run the offense in practice against pressure.
6. Princeton and FSU pressed us successfully and any good coach saw that and will continue to devise pressure against us.
7. Azzi will help a lot against pressure when she gets back.

Just get rid couple of turnovers that I see game after game can make a big difference, since we are a good shooting team, bigger and more athletic then most teams.

 

[npignatjr]

Hahaha!!

Paige came back just before the BE tournament in late February and we made it to the NC game. I suspect if Azzi returns in mid January, she’ll have plenty of time to fit herself into a team that has learned to win without her.

Paige was coming back from a bone injury. Azzi will be coming back from another ligament injury to an already twice surgery repaired knee.

 

[hoopsnloops32]

And that is why I highly doubt we will see Azzi for a week or 2. Based on CD's comments Azzi is not practicing yet and I would certainly want her to practice for a few days (starting slow and gradually building up) to ensure that there is no swelling or stiffness the following day.

CD did say she was practicing, just not full out, and there are pictures of her practicing on IG. She’s not immobilized she’s just probably not full contact.

 

[GoUconn7961]

If UConn doesn’t stop the bleeding in regards to turnovers it’ll be a very tight game.

 

[freshler40]

First of all Merry Christmas and a Happy Healthy Holidays to you and all Boneyarders. I absolutely love you pre game analysis. I have done it in the past in big games like against SC and Stanford. If we can limit our silly turnovers such as walking and throwing passes to overplayed players. We will win by 20 points. the turnovers usually happens on our first pass to the right corner wing or the right elbow Big.
1 The wing has to jabstep towards the hoop and then come to meet the pass and not be running without dribbling the ball.
2. The Big has to come and meet the ball if they are being guarded tightly. And no loopy soft passes if they are being guarded closely. Other teams know our offense and the defensive wing players are cheating on this pass and stealing it.
3. The point guard must use ball fakes to move defenders.
4. Don't pick up your dribble when being pressured without knowing where to pass the ball.
5. Run the offense in practice against pressure.
6. Princeton and FSU pressed us successfully and any good coach saw that and will continue to devise pressure against us.
7. Azzi will help a lot against pressure when she gets back.

Just get rid couple of turnovers that I see game after game can make a big difference, since we are a good shooting team, bigger and more athletic then most teams.

Agree with 1-7 points and would add that our new post player needs to pump fake and use her body like Santago to more space to shoot. Your #2 applies to all players need to come and meet the ball. We have gotten used to body to body handoffs that are susceptible to good defensive movement.

Our double high post is an easy read by being set up much too early when our guard pulls up her dribble inside the half court. The guard needs to use the high pick, on occasion, to drive for a pick and roll option or layup. We are much too passive on offense in half court sets and predictable!

 

[Alydar]

CD did say she was practicing, just not full out, and there are pictures of her practicing on IG. She’s not immobilized she’s just probably not full contact.

+1
I'm confident that Fudd's injury is being handled with a very conservative recovery plan and they monitor her after every practice. I'd guess that the strength of the leg is being measured and compared to pre-injury strength. There have been no reported setbacks. If she has been cleared to practice it's just a matter of her having confidence that she can again do her thing on the court.
I'm happy she will be back. When is a secondary concern.

 

[MSGRET]

First of all Merry Christmas and a Happy Healthy Holidays to you and all Boneyarders. I absolutely love you pre game analysis. I have done it in the past in big games like against SC and Stanford. If we can limit our silly turnovers such as walking and throwing passes to overplayed players. We will win by 20 points. the turnovers usually happens on our first pass to the right corner wing or the right elbow Big.
1 The wing has to jabstep towards the hoop and then come to meet the pass and not be running without dribbling the ball.
2. The Big has to come and meet the ball if they are being guarded tightly. And no loopy soft passes if they are being guarded closely. Other teams know our offense and the defensive wing players are cheating on this pass and stealing it.
3. The point guard must use ball fakes to move defenders.
4. Don't pick up your dribble when being pressured without knowing where to pass the ball.
5. Run the offense in practice against pressure.
6. Princeton and FSU pressed us successfully and any good coach saw that and will continue to devise pressure against us.
7. Azzi will help a lot against pressure when she gets back.

Just get rid couple of turnovers that I see game after game can make a big difference, since we are a good shooting team, bigger and more athletic then most teams.

In the Princeton game UConn was safely winning the game, up 11 until Nika went down with the head injury, and 14 at the end of the 3rd qtr. Princeton outscored UConn in the 4th by playing a full court pressure on an inexperienced Ines and a tired short handed UConn team. This would not have happened if Nika was still in the game.

While in the FSU game UConn was walking away with the game at the half. Then the officials seemed to change their way of officiating and allowed FSU to be overly physical on defense and create contact to get blocking fouls on offense. It was one of the worse officiating jobs that I've seen so far this season.

 

[Carnac]

Alot depends on alot. First our height advantage is going to be huge. We should be able to score down low and they should be one and down having to get back on defense. Dorka and Edwards should have a field day against their shorter players. I expect their defense to focus on Lou and leaving Aubrey and Nika open and they will need to hit their shots. To open up the middle we will need to hit outside shots and get our transition game going. We are bigger and much quicker. I dont see UConn loosing this game. It wont be easy either. Both teams are coming off their holiday break so I expect a little rust. We just saw what UConn can do when Caroline and Nika hit shots. Expect to see more of that as Edwards and Lou will be the focus of most defenses. We are really really good and I would expect a great performance from UConn in this game

Me either. You want ALL of your conference games to be competitive. It keeps the juices flowing and keeps you sharp. It also keeps your fan base interested and motivated.

 

[faithfulfan]

A little of a match up problem as Creighton is small, but strong,
UCONN has advantages of height, length, athleticism, and better outside shooters.
Creighton scores in the 50's/60's on the road, 70's up at home,
so factoring in UCONN's better defense, and better shooting, but the game is at Creighton, I'd predict a UCONN 80's, Creighton 60's! Lets see how close I get.

 

[HuskyNan]

 

[Tonyc]

Well Im expecting Creighton to pack it in and shadow Lou, forcing Nika and Caroline to make plays/shots. UConns bigs most likely will be double teamed when they get the ball down low. I expect Creighton to come out hyped up for this one. Its a home game for them and even with the students off for holiday break I expect a good turnout.

Much like their last game I see UConns guards dribble driving and taking outside shots. The keys will be TOs and staying out of foul trouble. This is a road game for us and a big game for Creighton. We must stay out of foul trouble. UConn will prevail by double digits

 

[Bone Dog]

Im expecting Creighton to pack it in and shadow Lou, forcing Nika and Caroline to make plays/shots. UConns bigs most likely will be double teamed when they get the ball down low.

Sounds about right. Should be a good test of any efforts to avoid turnovers, some of which have been the result of poor passes into the paint and the inevitable double teams.

 

[Bone Dog]

That’s a good point, and it probably also means fewer steals, since Aubrey is quite a disruptive element on D. On the other hand, if Caroline’s return to form continues apace, it could mean more scoring in the half court offense, where she shines. I’m not going to change my prognostication, but I will watch for the effects you noted.