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Mississippi State's rise to the final four this year did wonders for their confidence and resolve. Before, they thought they were good enough to play and compete with the "elites" at their level, now they know they are. As of today (Sat Dec 30), MS is 14-0. Looking at their preseason schedule, I'm only impressed with 3 wins:
@ Oklahoma State 79-76, #9 Oregon at home 90-79, and Syracuse 76-65 on a neutral court (tournament) in Las Vegas.
The rest of their wins were against teams I would consider soft. They've got upcoming games against #7 Tennessee, #4 South Carolina, #16 Missouri, and #22 Texas A&M. Let's see how they do against those teams before we crown them (Denny Green). That will give the fans a better idea of just how far they've come, and how resilient they are when facing a team that's comparable in talent, depth and experience.
I think that the 4 returning UConn players are all playing the same or better at this point in the season. I take into account that up to this point, UConn has played more top 15 teams, and more talented opponents than the teams you are comparing them to. Speaking of unpopular takes, heres one: IMO, Gabby was the only one that played her normal game against MS. Go back and look at the box score or a replay of the game if you can stand it. Collier was so ineffective, Geno pulled her. Nurse had 6 points in 35 minutes, way below her season average. Nurse can put up 6 points in two trips down the court in less than a minute. Lou's play was fair. NOTE - Schaefer got 12 points from his bench, Geno got 1. It was a perfect storm for the Bulldogs that day. ALL the ingredients they needed for an upset win manifested themselves. If a rematch occurs, that won't happen again.
South Carolina is good. they return the premier post player in the country. Keep in mind that they've already lost to Notre Dame 92-85 in a neutral site tournament game, a team UConn beat by 9. Based on who UConn has played, and how they have played, I think it can be said that UConn is playing better (up to this point) than the other FF teams. It's much too early to begin to suggest who will make the FF. Everyone must play their conference games and post season tournaments before anyone can begin to compose a bracket.
Only 4 invitations will be awarded for participation that final weekend in Columbus in April. Right now, it looks like 6-7 teams could legitimately make it that far. Don't forget that dark horse that no one figures on. Last year, it was Mississippi State. The year before it was Oregon St and Washington. Will this be the year Baylor and Notre Dame make the FF as everyone assumes? Neither received an invitation the last 2 years.
UConn, Texas, Notre Dame, Mississippi State, Louisville, Maryland, South Carolina, #7 Tennessee, West Virginia, UCLA, Oregon, Ohio State, Florida State and maybe Texas A&M. That's 14 schools that all have travel plans to Columbus that first week in April. They're all playing well right now. None of them have more than 2 losses. Somebody's not going to make it. It's a safe bet that UConn will get their ticket punched, who will the other 3 be?
Miss State could have won the SEC last season but lost their last two conference games to middling Tennessee and Kentucky squads. And of course lost the head to head to USC.
South Carolina is good but I haven't been blown away by our play lately. The game is at Miss State and it may be the conference decider. I worry about Vivians and it will be interesting to see whether either coach has their star post defend the other. Foul trouble might decide that game.
