Contenders & Pretenders

[BroadwayVa]

She fouled out one game vs Syracuse.
She had 2 fouls in 1st half vs Az State. (only played 5 minutes)
She had 4 fouls vs Okie State.

***Would love to get a crack at their backups.

Do the same stats for Azura in minutes played.
I love your Uconn pride.

 

[hoophuskee]

Do the same stats for Azura in minutes played.
I love your Uconn pride.

But that wasn't my point. I wasn't comparing AZ vs McCowan. I was disputing your point that McCowan doesn't get into foul trouble -- and just bringing up that McCowan is also "foul prone." She is, right? Nor is the game one-on-one. UCONN's two other posts (Collier/Gabby) are imo far superior to the "what else" other than McCowan. McCowan has shown when she plays against some of the top tier teams she has been in foul trouble (though she wiped out Oregon). Sure so has AZ gotten into foul trouble - but it doesn't mean McCowan doesn't. And if they both get into foul trouble who has the advantage (ofc it depends how early-- but if they both get into foul trouble near the same time?)? In addition, UCONN's players of Collier and Gabby can put more pressure on McCowan to foul than other post players on Miss State can do to AZ.

And if we compare minutes-to-minutes we also have to compare strength of schedule. Playing the tougher schedule which UCONN has also means a higher probability to commit more fouls.

I'm just bringing the other side to the argument that's all. On the thread listing top 5 at every position I had McCowan 2 and AZ 3 as of this moment. All I was saying was "McCowan can get into foul trouble too because she has several times already and she would be guarding/playing against the best team this year she has already played."

 

[UConnCat]

Last night Miss State played Massey #342 and 0-12 Mississippi Valley State University. MSU defeated the Devilettes 112-36 and looks ready for SEC play.

 

[HuskyNan]

Very good post by OP. Can't disagree with any of it. All 5 power conferences have must see games.
Miss St. vs South Carolina
Texas vs Baylor
Oregon vs UCLA
Notre Dame vs Louisville
Ohio State @ Maryland

I can include UConn vs USF plus DePaul vs Villanova.

Should be a great 2018 for WCBB.

UConn has Texas, South Carolina, Louisville, and USF twice in the second half of the 2017-2018 season.

 

[BostonCanuck]

UConn has Texas, South Carolina, Louisville, and USF twice in the second half of the 2017-2018 season.

I really like that we have three tough out-of-conference matchups in the new year. I seem to recall there normally being only one or two of those once conference play begins.

 

[oldude]

I really like that we have three tough out-of-conference matchups in the new year. I seem to recall there normally being only one or two of those once conference play begins.

Those tough games in Jan & Feb are Geno’s bellwether games to see where his team is heading into the Big Dance. Over the past few years it’s really only been SC. This year, with 3 top 10 matchups, 2 of which are on the road, the Huskies will certainly be battle tested come tournament time.

 

[FanFromMaine]

One of the comments I made after the MS St upset is that Geno would never again allow his team to get caught in a game where the other team was walking the ball up the court and limiting the number of Husky posessions. Chalk that up to Vic out coaching Geno, bad play or lack of depth. If the two teams meet again, UConn will most definitely push the pace to get MS St into a track meet.

I go with the lack of depth option. This year Notre Dame doesn’t really have a point guard. Yet Geno let them come up court with no pressure. One might assume that, if UConn had a third guard this year or last, he might have pushed both these teams.

 

[bbsamjj]

Old Dude...nice job as usual. You nailed the contenders and what an exciting final four that would be. IMO, the dream seeding in the final four would be 1) UCONN, 2) MSU, 3) ND and 4) SC....would love to see MSU smother ND while we do a number on "defending champion " SC. That sets up a MSU/UCONN final and there is no doubt in my mind that we would win going away. By playoff time, we will be better at every starting position over last year plus we have Z off the bench vs Butler. Add in MW and hopefully CB we will be in fantastic shape with great depth. Assuming the team makes a commitment to win the NC...and IMO they will....then zero worries.

Why are there quotes around "defending champion" SC. SC is the defending national champion. Now obviously they lost A LOT from last years' defending national championship team, but they still have arguably the best player in the country and pretty good talent around her.

 

[skilz]

While I know that the Sooners stumbled out of the gate this season, I saw some real talent on the court when they played the Huskies at the Mohegan Sun. OK could be a real sleeper this season. It will be interesting to see how they do tonight at home vs TX.

Texas always seems to come out of the gate fast and strong, but tends to get tired and sloppy in the last quarter. "Contenders" would beat Texas; "To Early To Tell" would beat Texas if they have more stamina. The TX vs Baylor game will be interesting. UConn wins over Texas by 20.

 

[oldude]

Texas always seems to come out of the gate fast and strong, but tends to get tired and sloppy in the last quarter. "Contenders" would beat Texas; "To Early To Tell" would beat Texas if they have more stamina. The TX vs Baylor game will be interesting. UConn wins over Texas by 20.

Really good point. Brings to mind my observation last season when TX played UConn at the Mohegan Sun, and appeared to run out of gas in the 4th qtr as UConn pulled away.

 

[rugbymate]

Why are there quotes around "defending champion" SC. SC is the defending national champion. Now obviously they lost A LOT from last years' defending national championship team, but they still have arguably the best player in the country and pretty good talent around her.

The quotes are sour grapes on my end. We handled SC pretty well during the regular season and , while this is speculative, I suspect we would have beat them easily in the NC game. The MS game was such an outlier and some of us still can't believe it. Am really hoping we play them this year.

 

[LoTrader]

With the end of the OOC schedule, except for a handful of games in Jan-Feb, and the start of conference schedules at hand, I thought it would be worthwhile to look at the WBB landscape this season with a view towards identifying those teams that had clearly separated themselves as Contenders to make the FF in Columbus and those teams that appear to lack what it takes as Pretenders. Of course, there’s still a lot of basketball to play. Teams can make a late season push. Upsets and, unfortunately, injuries happen. But as of right now, here’s my take on the Contenders & Pretenders:

Contenders

UConn – Well duh!

ND – After suffering several key losses due to graduation, transfer and injury, MM has cobbled together a very good Irish team that took down the defending champions and gave UConn all they wanted for 3+ qtrs.

SC – Despite losing 3 players to the WNBA and suffering several injuries to key players, the Gamecocks still have National team coach Dawn Staley, NPOY candidate A’ja Wilson and a solid supporting cast.

MS St – Spoiler Alert! The Bulldogs are a better team than the one that took down the Huskies in the national semifinal. Tiera McCowan has become a dominant force in the post. Vivians and William are outstanding players who can score and are providing senior leadership. MS St could end SC’s string of SEC championships and look very strong in their bid to reach consecutive FF’s.

Too Early to Tell

Baylor – Kalani Brown is playing like an AA, and Cox is good when she’s healthy, but the Bears lost 4 of the 5 players that started vs UConn last year to graduation and transfer, and they lack depth. Baylor may still have enough to win another Big12 title but the rest of the roster will have to step up and play more consistently in order for Baylor to make it to the FF.

Louisville – Lou is undefeated with some very nice wins to their credit. Led by Asia Durr, the Cardinals have a potent lineup. But all too often in tight games, the Lou offense breaks down into one on one play. As good as Durr and some of her teammates are, it only takes a determined defensive effort and an off-shooting night to send the Cardinals home. Games vs ND and UConn later in the season will give us a much better indication of whether Louisville is the real deal.

Tennessee – The Vols have practiced addition by subtraction with the departure of team distractions DD & Cooper. While Tenn continues to turn the ball over too much and make inexplicable plays from time to time, the one thing they do this season is play hard all the time. They have a young team with a lot of talent. The test will not be whether they beat SEC powerhouses SC and MS St, but whether they stumble against teams they should beat like Alabama.

Pretenders

Texas – The Longhorns were everyone’s pick to rise to the top echelon of WBB this season, and while there is still time for the team to prove everyone right, the game in Knoxville exposed TX many weaknesses. They don’t take care of the ball. Their offense and defense in the paint is suspect. While the return of Joyner Holmes will help, I really don’t see the Longhorns getting beyond the Elite 8.

tOSU – While the Buckeyes have tons of talent and likely the all-time leading scorer in WBB, they are just not a well-coached team. They breakdown on defense and give up easy shots. On offense, the Buckeyes frequently degenerate into Kelsey Mitchell going one-on-one and forcing bad shots.

MD – After losing their 3 top players to graduation and transfer, I actually believe that Brenda is doing a nice job with the Turtles this season and could well win another title in the BIG. But MD doesn’t have the horses to get to Columbus this year for the FF.

The PAC12 – After being declared the top conference in the country last season, there was lots of speculation that several teams from the PAC12 would step up this season to contend for a national title. While there are a lot of good teams in the PAC12, none of them have what it takes to make a run for a national championship IMO. UCLA is an extremely athletic team, but they don’t shoot the ball as well as they did last year and they are prone to TO’s. Oregon can score with just about anyone, but they were exposed defensively last year by UConn and this year by MS St. Perennial contender Stanford lost 3 starters to graduation, has suffered several key injuries and may struggle to even earn an invite to the Big Dance. The best of the rest includes: OSU and their outstanding coach Scott Rueck, Cal and maybe USC, none of which have the horses to make a deep run in the tournament.

There’s my take on Contenders & Pretenders this season in WBB. I look forward to the BY’s feedback.

I think it is a bit early to put the "Pretender" moniker on the PAC12. Too many pundits out there are painting UCLA as the best the PAC12 has to offer, and frankly, UCLA might end up in the bottom half of the PAC12 by the time the PAC12 Tournament starts. Oregon has the juice to get to Final 4. The next best of the PAC12 is Stanford, OSU, and Cal. The top 4 finishers in the PAC12 (injuries aside) will make some noise in the NCAA tournament this year.

 

[Carnac]

Great post! I would have been tempted to give Stanford it's very own entry on the list of pretenders. But then I remembered that they're not even a top 25 team anymore in either of this week's polls, so clearly you got it right.

No one has driven a steak through the heart of Stanford (FF this past year) yet. There's still breath in the body, and it's still warm. Stanford beat a game and ranked UCLA yesterday by 11 points, 76 - 65. I'd hold off a while before making any long range judgments about the Cardinal. Tara has never been one to throw in the towel, especially this early. Don't expect Stanford to go away, they won't.

Mississippi State is indeed a better team than the one that beat the Huskies last year. Then again, the Huskies are better, too. It's looking more and more like there might be some kind of Final Four rematch between them, and one can only hope that it happens. It would be one of the most hyped and high profile sporting events of the year, and absolutely fantastic for the game. One thing's for sure - MSU better make sure it happens this season. They lose Vivians, William and Schaefer to graduation, and will be in a world of hurt next year.

Mississippi State's rise to the final four this year did wonders for their confidence and resolve. Before, they thought they were good enough to play and compete with the "elites" at their level, now they know they are. As of today (Sat Dec 30), MS is 14-0. Looking at their preseason schedule, I'm only impressed with 3 wins:
@ Oklahoma State 79-76, #9 Oregon at home 90-79, and Syracuse 76-65 on a neutral court (tournament) in Las Vegas.

The rest of their wins were against teams I would consider soft. They've got upcoming games against #7 Tennessee, #4 South Carolina, #16 Missouri, and #22 Texas A&M. Let's see how they do against those teams before we crown them (Denny Green). That will give the fans a better idea of just how far they've come, and how resilient they are when facing a team that's comparable in talent, depth and experience.

A potentially unpopular view. I think that Mississippi St has grown more than we have... to date. People that played well in the final 4 are all playing much better. Can we make that claim? Methinks not.

I think that the 4 returning UConn players are all playing the same or better at this point in the season. I take into account that up to this point, UConn has played more top 15 teams, and more talented opponents than the teams you are comparing them to. Speaking of unpopular takes, heres one: IMO, Gabby was the only one that played her normal game against MS. Go back and look at the box score or a replay of the game if you can stand it. Collier was so ineffective, Geno pulled her. Nurse had 6 points in 35 minutes, way below her season average. Nurse can put up 6 points in two trips down the court in less than a minute. Lou's play was fair. NOTE - Schaefer got 12 points from his bench, Geno got 1. It was a perfect storm for the Bulldogs that day. ALL the ingredients they needed for an upset win manifested themselves. If a rematch occurs, that won't happen again.

South Carolina is good. they return the premier post player in the country. Keep in mind that they've already lost to Notre Dame 92-85 in a neutral site tournament game, a team UConn beat by 9. Based on who UConn has played, and how they have played, I think it can be said that UConn is playing better (up to this point) than the other FF teams. It's much too early to begin to suggest who will make the FF. Everyone must play their conference games and post season tournaments before anyone can begin to compose a bracket.

Only 4 invitations will be awarded for participation that final weekend in Columbus in April. Right now, it looks like 6-7 teams could legitimately make it that far. Don't forget that dark horse that no one figures on. Last year, it was Mississippi State. The year before it was Oregon St and Washington. Will this be the year Baylor and Notre Dame make the FF as everyone assumes? Neither received an invitation the last 2 years.

UConn, Texas, Notre Dame, Mississippi State, Louisville, Maryland, South Carolina, #7 Tennessee, West Virginia, UCLA, Oregon, Ohio State, Florida State and maybe Texas A&M. That's 14 schools that all have travel plans to Columbus that first week in April. They're all playing well right now. None of them have more than 2 losses. Somebody's not going to make it. It's a safe bet that UConn will get their ticket punched, who will the other 3 be?

 

[shizam]

With the end of the OOC schedule, except for a handful of games in Jan-Feb, and the start of conference schedules at hand, I thought it would be worthwhile to look at the WBB landscape this season with a view towards identifying those teams that had clearly separated themselves as Contenders to make the FF in Columbus and those teams that appear to lack what it takes as Pretenders. Of course, there’s still a lot of basketball to play. Teams can make a late season push. Upsets and, unfortunately, injuries happen. But as of right now, here’s my take on the Contenders & Pretenders:

Contenders

UConn – Well duh!

ND – After suffering several key losses due to graduation, transfer and injury, MM has cobbled together a very good Irish team that took down the defending champions and gave UConn all they wanted for 3+ qtrs.

SC – Despite losing 3 players to the WNBA and suffering several injuries to key players, the Gamecocks still have National team coach Dawn Staley, NPOY candidate A’ja Wilson and a solid supporting cast.

MS St – Spoiler Alert! The Bulldogs are a better team than the one that took down the Huskies in the national semifinal. Tiera McCowan has become a dominant force in the post. Vivians and William are outstanding players who can score and are providing senior leadership. MS St could end SC’s string of SEC championships and look very strong in their bid to reach consecutive FF’s.

Too Early to Tell

Baylor – Kalani Brown is playing like an AA, and Cox is good when she’s healthy, but the Bears lost 4 of the 5 players that started vs UConn last year to graduation and transfer, and they lack depth. Baylor may still have enough to win another Big12 title but the rest of the roster will have to step up and play more consistently in order for Baylor to make it to the FF.

Louisville – Lou is undefeated with some very nice wins to their credit. Led by Asia Durr, the Cardinals have a potent lineup. But all too often in tight games, the Lou offense breaks down into one on one play. As good as Durr and some of her teammates are, it only takes a determined defensive effort and an off-shooting night to send the Cardinals home. Games vs ND and UConn later in the season will give us a much better indication of whether Louisville is the real deal.

Tennessee – The Vols have practiced addition by subtraction with the departure of team distractions DD & Cooper. While Tenn continues to turn the ball over too much and make inexplicable plays from time to time, the one thing they do this season is play hard all the time. They have a young team with a lot of talent. The test will not be whether they beat SEC powerhouses SC and MS St, but whether they stumble against teams they should beat like Alabama.

Pretenders

Texas – The Longhorns were everyone’s pick to rise to the top echelon of WBB this season, and while there is still time for the team to prove everyone right, the game in Knoxville exposed TX many weaknesses. They don’t take care of the ball. Their offense and defense in the paint is suspect. While the return of Joyner Holmes will help, I really don’t see the Longhorns getting beyond the Elite 8.

tOSU – While the Buckeyes have tons of talent and likely the all-time leading scorer in WBB, they are just not a well-coached team. They breakdown on defense and give up easy shots. On offense, the Buckeyes frequently degenerate into Kelsey Mitchell going one-on-one and forcing bad shots.

MD – After losing their 3 top players to graduation and transfer, I actually believe that Brenda is doing a nice job with the Turtles this season and could well win another title in the BIG. But MD doesn’t have the horses to get to Columbus this year for the FF.

The PAC12 – After being declared the top conference in the country last season, there was lots of speculation that several teams from the PAC12 would step up this season to contend for a national title. While there are a lot of good teams in the PAC12, none of them have what it takes to make a run for a national championship IMO. UCLA is an extremely athletic team, but they don’t shoot the ball as well as they did last year and they are prone to TO’s. Oregon can score with just about anyone, but they were exposed defensively last year by UConn and this year by MS St. Perennial contender Stanford lost 3 starters to graduation, has suffered several key injuries and may struggle to even earn an invite to the Big Dance. The best of the rest includes: OSU and their outstanding coach Scott Rueck, Cal and maybe USC, none of which have the horses to make a deep run in the tournament.

There’s my take on Contenders & Pretenders this season in WBB. I look forward to the BY’s feedback.

At this point there are not many outstanding teams. UConn of course, Ms State and possibly Baylor and SC. Louisville may be undefeated but they just don’t have “it”.

 

[Carnac]

I realize it's early, but keep an eye on Houston. They're 12-3. They've already won as many games as they did last year (12-19/4-12). They just knocked off SMU today on the road 85-75. They share a 3 way tie with UCF and Tulsa for 1st place in the AAC.

 

[DefenseBB]

Not sure what's the hype about with Miss St. this year. Yes they are very good but they seem more vulnerable this year then last. They also haven't played a tough schedule outside of Ok St, Oregon, and a rebuilding Syracuse team. They have no depth at the 4&5 spots. How's Vivians going to fare defensively guarding Wilson, Collier, or Nared? Each of those players are going to be matchup nightmares for her. Their guards don't have much height so I really can't see them giving players like KLS, Nurse, Harris, or Cliney fits defensively. I wouldn't be surprised if Georgia pulls off the upset Sunday. They matchup very well and Caliya Robison and Mackenzie Engram could give the Bulldogs some trouble. Just some observations.

Spur-I am usually "all-in" on your comments as I too want to see SC become/stay a top echelon team, always in the conversation, however this post seems more emotional than analytical due to the rivalry. MSU, while maybe a tick down defensively from the guard defense they had last year is most assuredly better offensively. Last year they took teams by some surprise, this year, they have expectations and seem to be handling those pretty well. I honestly worry that your team will have a tough time against them in Starkville as your guard play is suspect due to injuries. We shall see.

 

[oldude]

I realize it's early, but keep an eye on Houston. They're 12-3. They've already won as many games as they did last year (12-19/4-12). They just knocked off SMU today on the road 85-75. They share a 3 way tie with UCF and Tulsa for 1st place in the AAC.

Have they played and beaten anyone good?

 

[Carnac]

It depends on what you call "good". Their best win so far was against a 6-6 Texas Tech team. They are showing steady improvement. Two years ago they finished 6-24. Last year they doubled that win total to 12-19. I always pull for the weaker teams, hoping they'll turn their ship around. 12-3 is much better than 3-12. They were the AAC cellar dwellers 2 years ago. I think if they can finish at least 1 game over .500, their season could be considered a success. Head coach Ronald Hughey has turned them around, and appears to be headed in the right direction. The AAC needs all the teams with +.500 records that they can get, as it adds some credibility to a conference that many still consider weak.

 

[Plebe]

Have they played and beaten anyone good?

Depends on what your definition of good is.

They beat George Mason, which many people on this board believe has one of the top 5 centers in the country

 

[CocoHusky]

MSU has been pretty good so far. McGowan and Vivians are carrying the load. I knew this team wouldn't have the depth of last year due to graduation of 4 regular contributors. The bench isn't bad but there is a considerable drop off in talent after the starters. Foul trouble and/or injury is a concern of mine as the team gets in to SEC play. Some fans on this board love to hate the SEC but it's a tough conference and there aren't many easy wins.

UT is much better than the last two years and could make a run under the right circumstances. SC relies a ton on Aja but she's the best player in the country and is tough to stop. I'm inclined to say ND is the 2nd best team even with their lack of depth. Texas looked not too great against Tennessee but everyone knows the talent is there and Holmes coming back gives them another weapon.

UConn is number one by far and I'm not sure any of the above teams could hang with them in the FF or NC. I don't think any of the above team are "pretenders" but none have as many weapons as UConn.

Morgan William is also having a pretty good season and is currently 2nd in the Nation in Assist: TO ratio of 4.85.

 

[SCspur]

Spur-I am usually "all-in" on your comments as I too want to see SC become/stay a top echelon team, always in the conversation, however this post seems more emotional than analytical due to the rivalry. MSU, while maybe a tick down defensively from the guard defense they had last year is most assuredly better offensively. Last year they took teams by some surprise, this year, they have expectations and seem to be handling those pretty well. I honestly worry that your team will have a tough time against them in Starkville as your guard play is suspect due to injuries. We shall see.

I felt my post was more analytical then emotional. Can it really be considered a rivalry when SC has won the past 11 games? If that's the case could UCONN and SC be considered a rivalry? Yes they are very good but IMO I really don't see the hype. Yes they could easily make the FF again because a lot of teams are suspect this year. Vivians has been good all 4 years since she's been in the SEC but Dawn knows how to limit her offensively. Keep a long, athletic perimeter defender on her and she will get frustrated. Defensively there is no way in this world she will be able to contain Wilson, or Jennings, or Herbert Harrigan for that matter. She struggled guarding Hebard and Sabally of Oregon and Mandy Coleman of Oklahoma St. I just think the matchups for SC looks better. As far as guard play, other then Vivians, who does Miss St have that's fantastic on the perimeter and tough to stop? Because I really only see one player who could give us trouble and that's Vivians and Dawn knows how to slow her down.

 

[shizam]

It depends on what you call "good". Their best win so far was against a 6-6 Texas Tech team. They are showing steady improvement. Two years ago they finished 6-24. Last year they doubled that win total to 12-19. I always pull for the weaker teams, hoping they'll turn their ship around. 12-3 is much better than 3-12. They were the AAC cellar dwellers 2 years ago. I think if they can finish at least 1 game over .500, their season could be considered a success. Head coach Ronald Hughey has turned them around, and appears to be headed in the right direction. The AAC needs all the teams with +.500 records that they can get, as it adds some credibility to a conference that many still consider weak.

Texas Tech is bad. Coach just got let go and Racee Caldwell seems very inconsistent there.

 

[Plebe]

Texas Tech is bad. Coach just got let go and Racee Caldwell seems very inconsistent there.

Yeah, Texas Tech is definitely not Houston's best win. That distinction would go to either Milwaukee (89 in Massey/97 in Sagarin) or George Mason (102/119). Texas Tech is currently 176/195.

Houston does have a good test coming up tomorrow at Tulane.

 

[Plebe]

The quotes are sour grapes on my end. We handled SC pretty well during the regular season and , while this is speculative, I suspect we would have beat them easily in the NC game. The MS game was such an outlier and some of us still can't believe it. Am really hoping we play them this year.

I think most of us expected UConn to handle MS pretty easily as well. It's not SC's fault, and in no way does it diminish the legitimacy of their title, that UConn couldn't beat a team that they were able to beat three times. It may have been an outlier, but that's why they play the games.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

I've been saying all season that MSU really needs to win the SEC championship this year. Finally beating SC in conference is an essential precursor for this group if they want to make the Final Four again and have a shot at winning it all.

They really don't have to beat South Carolina to make the Final Four or have a shot at winning it all.

They do have USC at home this year and they may well need to win that game to win the SEC.