Committee top 16 reveal tonight!

[Phil]

"Does it matter or does it not matter" is an example of binary thinking. Many questions qualify but some have probabilistic answers, which isn't aalways always comfortable for some people.

Southie ("it does matter more often than not.") and Gamecockfan77 ("you’d rather play the least number of teams that have the highest chance of beating you"), nailed it.

You have to win six (ignoring playing teams which can be ignored) but the chances of winning it all and materially different depending on the six teams you have to face.

2025 is a classic example. UConn was given a two seed which was not deserved, they not only deserved one seated should've been at worst the second best one seed. Their path included three number one seeds. Obviously, that worked out very, very well, but their years in which the luck of the draw turns out differently.

Gamecockfan77 also points out ("it's rich people problems"), it's astounding to contemplate that UConn with 12 national championships might well have more with different seeding. For that matter, perhaps UConn might have fewer, if one of the championships could be traced to favorable seeding.

It does matter.

It's all in the hands of committee members who have some absolutely well-defined stats, but they also have two poorly defined tools – the ability to wait absolutely defined stats anyway they want, and if that's not good enough, There is always the "observable component" to fall back upon.

 

[Phil]

I hope that everyone who is saying that LSU is dangerous aren't the same folks saying that Tennessee doesn’t deserve to make the tourney.,

I think Tennessee deserves a 5 seed. I don't think they will get it, but that's what they deserve.

 

[1974yankees]

I would say it does matter more often than not. What about recent seasons prior to last year when UConn didn't win the title? Wouldn't you have hoped for different opponents (seeds) than the ones who ended up knocking the Huskies out of the tourney?

This year, it probably doesn't matter as UConn will most likely get an SEC and B1G team as its 2/3

I would say that previous seasons where Uconn didn't win was because they just weren't the best team.

 

[Phil]

I'm aware that many people here are particularly concerned about Texas but I am. One pair of games is the very definition of anecdotal, but last night in a trivia coincidence, UConn and Texas both took on schools whose name can be traced to King George II.

I'll start with an assertion I doubt anyone would challenge — Georgia is a much better team than Georgetown. Massey's matchup tool suggests that Georgia is likely to have a double-digit win over Georgetown.

Both teams won by a lot but the margins were troublingly close. UConn won by 32, and some might point out that there were a lot of bench minutes. I watched the Texas – Georgia game, and it was a beat down of a ranked team. They "only" won by 29 points, But they had about as many bench minutes as UConn. I didn't watch the whole game but the box score shows that Georgia outscored Texas in the final quarter, which mainly means that Texas took their foot off the gas.

Again one data point but Texas is playing on all cylinders and UConn not so much. I'll bet we can turn it on for postseason but that's going to be needed.

 

[ConnMotors]

NCAA Division I Women’s Basketball Tournament rules
aim to avoid matchups between teams from the same conference in the First Four and the first two rounds. If teams met twice, they cannot meet until the Sweet 16, while those meeting three times cannot play until the Elite Eight.

NCAA.org +2
Key Conference Pairing Rules:

• Early Rounds: The committee avoids placing teams from the same conference against each other in the first and second rounds.
• Rematches: If teams played twice (including conference tournaments), they may not meet before the Sweet 16.
• Three+ Meetings: Teams that played three or more times cannot meet until the Elite Eight.
• Top 4 Seeds: The top four teams from the same conference are generally placed in different regions.
• Exceptions: These guidelines can be relaxed if a conference has nine or more teams in the tournament, or if multiple teams from the same conference are among the final at-large selections.
• Region Constraint: Generally, no more than two teams from the same conference are placed in one region.

 

[visitingcock]

second Reveal

UConn, UCLA, South Carolina, and Texas Sit Atop Second Top 16 Reveal of 2026

With just two weeks until Selection Sunday, the NCAA Division I Women’s Basketball Committee has selected UConn, UCLA, South Carolina and Texas as the No. 1 seeds in its second top 16 reveal of the season.

www.ncaa.com

 

[NycUcWbbFan]

2026 WCBB NCAAT Bracketology Teams by Overall Seeding:

• Number in () is the NET on the day on/before the Bracketology date.
• AQ means “Automatic Qualifier” for a Conference.

 

[NycUcWbbFan]

NCAA Dashboard (3/1/2026) appended to ESPN Bracketology (3/2/2026) to provide insight on:

• (a) the Hypothesis Testing continuum of the 37 At-Large (Type &1 = 2) Qualifiers;
• (b) the 68-team Bracketed S-Curve (Overall Seed (OSeed)).

The NCAA procedures for (a), S-Curve and (b) are here.

&1 Type = 1 (Automatic Qualifier) and 2 (At-large Qualifier).

Top 20 Overall Seed | Remaining Schedule

• 1. UConn | Torvik Schedule
• 2. UCLA | Torvik Schedule
• 3. South Carolina | Torvik Schedule
• 4. Texas | Torvik Schedule
• 5. Iowa | Torvik Schedule
• 6. Michigan | Torvik Schedule
• 7. Vanderbilt | Torvik Schedule
• 8. LSU | Torvik Schedule
• 9. Louisville | Torvik Schedule
• 10. Duke | Torvik Schedule
• 11. TCU | Torvik Schedule
• 12. Oklahoma | Torvik Schedule
• 13. Minnesota | Torvik Schedule
• 14. Ohio St. | Torvik Schedule
• 15. Michigan St. | Torvik Schedule
• 16. Maryland | Torvik Schedule
• 17. Kentucky | Torvik Schedule
• 18. West Virginia | Torvik Schedule
• 19. North Carolina | Torvik Schedule
• 20. Texas Tech | Torvik Schedule

By-Conference Bids: Conference Standings | Conference Tournaments

 

[hoopsdiva]

NCAA Division I Women’s Basketball Tournament rules
aim to avoid matchups between teams from the same conference in the First Four and the first two rounds. If teams met twice, they cannot meet until the Sweet 16, while those meeting three times cannot play until the Elite Eight.
View attachment 117563NCAA.org +2
Key Conference Pairing Rules:

• Early Rounds: The committee avoids placing teams from the same conference against each other in the first and second rounds.
• Rematches: If teams played twice (including conference tournaments), they may not meet before the Sweet 16.
• Three+ Meetings: Teams that played three or more times cannot meet until the Elite Eight.
• Top 4 Seeds: The top four teams from the same conference are generally placed in different regions.
• Exceptions: These guidelines can be relaxed if a conference has nine or more teams in the tournament, or if multiple teams from the same conference are among the final at-large selections.
• Region Constraint: Generally, no more than two teams from the same conference are placed in one region.

As conferences get bigger and bigger, it's going to be harder to follow those "cannot meet until" rules.

 

[NycUcWbbFan]

UConn is apparently whacked twice by the same “Fairness to Stronger Conferences” bracketing rule:

• (a) LSU (SEC), #7 on the S-Curve, is its 2nd seed (instead of #8 MI);
• (b) Maryland (Big Ten), #13 on the S-Curve, is its 4th seed (instead of #16 Ohio St. (Big Ten));
• (b) seems it could have been avoided.

 

[Ozimoto]

I assume there will be additional adjusting resulting from conference tournament results.

 

[Tonyc]

What you need to win big games is discipline, confidence, execution, great coaching, great defense, a go to player or more and a little bit of luck. When I look at teams over the past few weeks, I look at how many points they've given up. A good defense doesn't give up a lot of points. Now taking into consideration who you're playing is part of it however a great defense like UConn had last year pretty much blew out a couple of top seeds. So, for example if you have a top team playing a team not ranked and beat them by 30+ that shows me your defense is great. If that same top team beats another top ranked team by over 20 that shows me, they have a really good defense. However, if you beat an unranked team by less than 15pts maybe your defense isn't as good as people think. Also consider how consistent you are at winning games. The conference tournaments will expose a lot. They will show us teams' weaknesses and strengths. Under pressure many times there is a lack of confidence and that will translate into going back to doing things that are in your comfort zone. That is a direct result in losing your confidence.

 

[The CDR-Ret]

What you need to win big games is discipline, confidence, execution, great coaching, great defense, a go to player or more and a little bit of luck. When I look at teams over the past few weeks, I look at how many points they've given up. A good defense doesn't give up a lot of points. Now taking into consideration who you're playing is part of it however a great defense like UConn had last year pretty much blew out a couple of top seeds. So, for example if you have a top team playing a team not ranked and beat them by 30+ that shows me your defense is great. If that same top team beats another top ranked team by over 20 that shows me, they have a really good defense. However, if you beat an unranked team by less than 15pts maybe your defense isn't as good as people think. Also consider how consistent you are at winning games. The conference tournaments will expose a lot. They will show us teams' weaknesses and strengths. Under pressure many times there is a lack of confidence and that will translate into going back to doing things that are in your comfort zone. That is a direct result in losing your confidence.

Completely agree (as usual)!

Geno's mantra of "Any team, anywhere, any time!" and "You have to defeat who shows up on the court. We have no control over whom our opponents are in the tournament."

I say, "win the play in front of you - offense or defense!" This edition of Huskies have taken that sentiment seriously and have embodied it since the Michigan game. I like the pattern the team has achieved, even when it wasn't pretty in a few of the games in February, but March has arrived. I expect increased defensive intensity. In Geno and CD, the Husky Nation trust.

Go Huskies!!!