Committee top 16 reveal tonight!

[Phil]

"Does it matter or does it not matter" is an example of binary thinking. Many questions qualify but some have probabilistic answers, which isn't aalways always comfortable for some people.

Southie ("it does matter more often than not.") and Gamecockfan77 ("you’d rather play the least number of teams that have the highest chance of beating you"), nailed it.

You have to win six (ignoring playing teams which can be ignored) but the chances of winning it all and materially different depending on the six teams you have to face.

2025 is a classic example. UConn was given a two seed which was not deserved, they not only deserved one seated should've been at worst the second best one seed. Their path included three number one seeds. Obviously, that worked out very, very well, but their years in which the luck of the draw turns out differently.

Gamecockfan77 also points out ("it's rich people problems"), it's astounding to contemplate that UConn with 12 national championships might well have more with different seeding. For that matter, perhaps UConn might have fewer, if one of the championships could be traced to favorable seeding.

It does matter.

It's all in the hands of committee members who have some absolutely well-defined stats, but they also have two poorly defined tools – the ability to wait absolutely defined stats anyway they want, and if that's not good enough, There is always the "observable component" to fall back upon.

 

[Phil]

I hope that everyone who is saying that LSU is dangerous aren't the same folks saying that Tennessee doesn’t deserve to make the tourney.,

I think Tennessee deserves a 5 seed. I don't think they will get it, but that's what they deserve.

 

[1974yankees]

I would say it does matter more often than not. What about recent seasons prior to last year when UConn didn't win the title? Wouldn't you have hoped for different opponents (seeds) than the ones who ended up knocking the Huskies out of the tourney?

This year, it probably doesn't matter as UConn will most likely get an SEC and B1G team as its 2/3

I would say that previous seasons where Uconn didn't win was because they just weren't the best team.

 

[Phil]

I'm aware that many people here are particularly concerned about Texas but I am. One pair of games is the very definition of anecdotal, but last night in a trivia coincidence, UConn and Texas both took on schools whose name can be traced to King George II.

I'll start with an assertion I doubt anyone would challenge — Georgia is a much better team than Georgetown. Massey's matchup tool suggests that Georgia is likely to have a double-digit win over Georgetown.

Both teams won by a lot but the margins were troublingly close. UConn won by 32, and some might point out that there were a lot of bench minutes. I watched the Texas – Georgia game, and it was a beat down of a ranked team. They "only" won by 29 points, But they had about as many bench minutes as UConn. I didn't watch the whole game but the box score shows that Georgia outscored Texas in the final quarter, which mainly means that Texas took their foot off the gas.

Again one data point but Texas is playing on all cylinders and UConn not so much. I'll bet we can turn it on for postseason but that's going to be needed.

 

[ConnMotors]

NCAA Division I Women’s Basketball Tournament rules
aim to avoid matchups between teams from the same conference in the First Four and the first two rounds. If teams met twice, they cannot meet until the Sweet 16, while those meeting three times cannot play until the Elite Eight.

NCAA.org +2
Key Conference Pairing Rules:

• Early Rounds: The committee avoids placing teams from the same conference against each other in the first and second rounds.
• Rematches: If teams played twice (including conference tournaments), they may not meet before the Sweet 16.
• Three+ Meetings: Teams that played three or more times cannot meet until the Elite Eight.
• Top 4 Seeds: The top four teams from the same conference are generally placed in different regions.
• Exceptions: These guidelines can be relaxed if a conference has nine or more teams in the tournament, or if multiple teams from the same conference are among the final at-large selections.
• Region Constraint: Generally, no more than two teams from the same conference are placed in one region.