Discussion in 'Conference Realignment Board' started by SubbaBub, Aug 1, 2016.
Such a concrete thinker you are. I'll be you continue to exhibit object permanence as well.
All of this assumes OK has a place to go, which IMO, they don't.
The days of taking a "blueblood" program just because, are over. Nebraska got that last ticket.
The SEC & B1G, with their wildly successful networks, are not adding anybody unless they bring cable boxes. The PAC12 network has been a massive failure. Adding OK & the state of Oklahoma does nothing to change that. What does that leave for OK? The ACC? That's not happening either.
Boren's play from the beginning was he wanted a network for the B12 because he believed it would help close the financial gap between HIS SCHOOL and schools in the SEC & B1G. When he found out that wasn't happening, he began to push the expansion agenda, not because it would be beneficial to the conference from an athletic & academic perspective but, because there is a contractual requirement to pay the conference more money.
OK is no different than KU, ISU, TCU or anybody else in the conference not named UT. Unless they can piggyback with UT as an expansion partner somewhere they are locked into the B12 with no other options.
I think you are right. OK wouldn't be pushing so hard for this expansion if it had a sure ticket out in my opinion. That said, it seems OK is most interested in adding teams that help the conferences's cable box issue even if cable boxes are not what they were just 3 years ago. B12 needs more major media markets and to reach more new households to protect its long term survival. The best four to maximum media reach to new markets remains UConn, Cincy, a FL directional and BYU. Houston does not deliver a marginal add to media value since the state is already covered by four programs. And since the FL directional schools seem to be out, maybe Tulane (I know, crazy talk) or CSU (no end in site for the growth in Colorado) is that fourth school to add another major market. Lastly, by any account Fox will want that fourth school to be in the eastern time zone. I would bet Fox will actually prefer Temple to CSU.
Do they really? Right now, they are 3rd in TV revenue behind the SEC & B1G, who they are not closing the gap on. The PAC12 is a mess with their network. The ACC is getting a network so that MAY push them ahead in revenue but that's not happening for several years as the ACCN is at least 2-3 years out and will take time to ramp up.
The B12 can stay exactly where they are now and ride the TV contracts out for the next 7-8 years until they expire. When it comes time to re-negotiate they can then find out which schools the networks want added, if any and make a determination then to expand or not..
OK has ALWAYS been a weaker sister to UT and that's not changing. Boren played a game of chicken that he lost and is now trying to scramble as best as he can to save face. I know he is the chair of the expansion committee but, the fact that he keeps running his mouth in the press while NOTHING is coming out of Austin very clearly speaks volumes
Good points, but I think Boren recognizes that to protect the B12 beyond 2023 it would be better to add teams sooner rather than later for two reasons; first nothing new will be available for a very long time; The ACCn + GOR extension changed everything. Basically the ACC, B1G and SEC are all locked up, leaving just the PAC to possibly pilfer. And what ever the woes of the PAC, it seems absurd any school would leave the all powerful universe of CA, OR & WA which have tremendous long run economic advantages. Second, it will take time to integrate the new schools and build out new B12 media friendly markets. Boren knows that under more sensible media rights pricing going forward, their little universe of 1 big state and 4 small states won't be valued on par with the four other P5 conferences when the current deal expires...unless they add the right new markets. The idea is to add G5 pip squeaks today so that in 2023 the new blood is established (like TCU and Baylor) and accepted.
Boren is trying to set them up for the best media rights extension possible given the cards dealt when 2023 (is that the right year?) comes along.
I don't get it. Yes, the old Big E had a lot of flaws and I agree that it was inevitable that the conference would split between the football and non-football programs.
Even before the second Big East raid, I heard rumors from 2 BC alumni that BC was very nervous about UConn. Everyone knew the Big E was going to die. UConn had proven in a short time that it could be successful in basketball and football and with a larger alumni base and as a state U, UConn was a threat to BCs self-image of being New England's university (how could a private, Catholic university claim such is still a mystery; but, as BC can't be the US's catholic U because that is ND, they had to try something). So when round two came-up, BC blackballed UConn, formed an alliance with the southern ACC schools that were worried about the ACC being a basketball conference, and worked with Syracuse, who is worried about UConn's growing market share in NYC, to get ESPN to push for Pitt instead. DeFilippo stated as much. BC won that battle and UConn lost. Why deny it?
PS - The conspiracy side of me wonders why BC, even without DeFlippo, allowed UConn to join Hockey East. Its a logical fit as UConn's profile works well with U Maine, UNH, BC, BU & etc. and UConn women's hockey was already Hockey East. But, the invite took place when the rumors of possible interest in UConn from the B1G was making the rounds. Could have this been an attempt by BC to put some space between UConn and the B1G. Hockey East is much better than B1G hockey; but, UConn as a full B1G member would be a significant threat to BC.
Have to agree. My town has been a Rutgers bastion for a while because there are connections to New Brunswick. Before the B1G, I heard more of Hall, Syracause, and especially Penn St locally. Now its about 50/50 between Rutgers and everyone else. The big difference are from people who went to other public schools in NJ (Ramapo, Montclair, Kean, Rowan, etc.) who now support Rutgers on the field as the State U.
Right now in the XII, Oklahoma only has to deal with Texas politically. Should the XII fall apart, OU would then have to deal with Ohio St, Michigan, Nebraska, Michigan St, etc. in the B1G or Alabama, Florida, LSU, Auburn, A&M, etc. in the SEC. OU does not appear to want to go west, so the PAC is out. That's why OU is working hard to keep the XII alive.
I think it's more likely that BC probably wanted I keep us out of Hockey East too but the other member schools simply outvoted them because none of those other programs have any respect or allegiance to BC.
They have no interest in anything but putting together the best hockey conference in America and getting a flagship state University in a hockey-rich region was a logical choice.
Why do they appear like they do not want to go west? A few years ago, they were dying to go west and they have no offers to go anywhere other than west. But I think, in general, you're right.
The idea that Oklahoma has a guaranteed landing spot in the Big 10 or SEC is probably something that needs to be rethought. When the stakes were much lower, neither of those conferences had an interest in Oklahoma and now that they're making upwards of $50,000,000 they suddenly have a need?
Completely agree. I lived in and around Boston for 15 years and worked form some big Boston employers. I knew of 4 BC fans - 2 went to BC 1 was the spouse of the other and wasn't given the choice of which school to root for (he went to U Southern Maine), and 1 who went to Bridgewater St; but, whose family knows the Hasselbeck's well. No one cared about BC. Why?
Boston has become a metro area of immigrants from other places in the US, such as Connecticut (I have about 10 classmates from HS in CT who now live around Boston, only 1 of which went to college in Boston [BC]) and those people bring their own college sport affiliations.
BC itself has become a top national university pulling in students from all over the country, many of whom don't care about BC sports and/or have allegiances elsewhere - just look-up the dwindling number of Triple Eagles: BC High, BC, BC Law
Outside of hockey and pair of 4 years stretches with Ryan and Hasselbeck in football, BC sports have been subpar, especially basketball
Boston is a pro-sports town and with the Bruins, Celtics, Pats, and Red Sox all winning titles starting in the late 1990's through today, BC has found it hard to get media or fan attention
Outside of Syracuse, ND (and that's a one way rivalry) and Hockey East, most of BC's biggest historical rivals are now in different conferences (UConn, PC), or have downgraded (HC), just look how excited some BC fans got when Holy Cross was added to the football team's schedule.
Hockey exists in its own bubble, moves are made at the behest of the coaches, not ADs or presidents. Largely, this is because the conferences historically have been their own single-sport entities. Of course, this has changed a bit with the B1G hockey conference, but as far as Hockey East goes, BC wouldn't have blocked UConn since that would've fallen at the feet of Jerry York. Despite my allegiance to BU, there's no way in hell York would've gotten himself in the middle of that kind of nonsense, he's too good of a person, loyal to Hockey East schools, and to New England hockey in general. Also, it was well known he didn't have a terribly strong personal relationship with DeFilippo or the president, so he wouldn't have been involved in any of those personal beefs they had with UConn.
And the only way they were going west was on UT coattails. Even then the PAC12 was pushing back but was willing to settle if UT came.
Adding OK and the state of Oklahoma bring nothing to anybody in the new CR world
In 2000 there were only 5 teams that played any meaningful FB in the Northeast. One was shadowed by a much bigger program and the other was having it's last hurrah in upstate NY. Only VT and Miami really mattered then. Really only Miami.
BE FB would have been just fine if only those two left.
Also recognize that the $54M revenue for Cincinnati is the amount before Nippert was expanded. They added only 5k seats, but went from 2 suites and no other premium seating to 18 suites that cost $100,000 per year, other suites that cost $50,000 per year, and club seating which cost $1,875-2,500 per year. There's more than 1,000 club seats. So right there following that renovation UC added $6M or more per year in revenue. Someone else can do the actual math. Plus they also rent the stadium to FC Cincinnati the USL soccer team for additional revenue, all since those numbers. UC is more like a $65M in revenue.
You think that the stadium expansion is worth an additional 6 million + in income for the AD? Wow.
That seems optimistic to me but I guess we will see when the data gets reported. That seems like a lot for any stadium upgrade. I'm sure that if its' true the Big 12 already knows about it. Looked like a good crowd last night very similar to a Baylor or TCU game in the Big 12.
The issue with Cinci's AD is ticket sales and donations. Thus the huge subsidy 40% +needed to operate. That's going to be a challenge no matter what conference they are in.
What schools would you think are more attractive to the PAC than Oklahoma?
Houston. Bigger city. Bigger state. Much easier to make the PAC 12 tv #s work in Texas than OK.
That said, I don't think the PAC ads anyone unless they are assured it would deliver on the revenue bottomline. Not going to guess at this, it needs to be a lock.
I think Houston's academics would keep them out of the Pac 12 IMO. Stanford (more Ivy than the majority of the Ivies) and Cal Berekeley (among several others) would likely vote "no". Academically OU >> Houston. The problem would be trying to bring OK State with them, maybe, although the Pac 8 did take Arizona and Arizona State in 1978. That also depends on the Pac 12 network situation. Their go-it-alone network could be helped by at least one more state with a storied FB program and OK would bring that - I know the 47 consecutive victories was back in the 1950s but they have done much more than that and are a CFB blueblood. However, I do think Boren is doing all he can to save the Big 12, to his credit.
Agreed about Houston academics. I think the PAC is just several years away from taking stock in its current tv situation and toying with modifications. They might need to add another time zone or maybe not, I don't think its clear and I don't think they are ready to ponder it until more dust settles. I don't think the PAC would ever take OSU. If they take a central time zone team it has to be a major non religious university in TX as team 1 and maybe OU as team 2. No soup for anyone else in the central time zone.
When your choices are Hawaii, UNLV, Boise St, and New Mexico suddenly TT, OSU, KSU, ISU, KU, etc look at lot better. I don't know if TCU has distanced themselves enough from the bible school (brite divinity) but with thier past success in the Mountain and Pacific time zone and location in DFW they may get a look as well as Houston who has had meetings with the PAC recently if I remember correctly. Some academic rankings put Houston much higher than others so I guess it ject depends which one you focus on.
Seems like if things between OU and TX blew up to the point that the conference was ending it would be unlikely they would leave for the same destination. A combo of the old Big 8 schools plus Tech would be interesting as every school would have historical rivalries with existing PAC members. Also gives the PACN some much more engaged fan bases as well as wealthy AD's.
LOL. I hope you are kidding.
I think the only way OU gets into the PAC is if UT is a part of the equation. The conference has already said no to an OU/OSU only pairing in the past, so its unlikely it would reconsider it in the near future. I think they would just stay at a more workable 12 instead of going to 14 or 16 without UT.
JMO but the only school that is 100% safe in a Big 12 implosion scenario is UT. Much like ND they can likely make a few phone calls and join whatever conference they choose. After that it gets a bit murky. I think OU and KU would be alright because they could potentially fit into The PAC, B1G, or even SEC. WVU could get a look from The SEC or ACC, but The Neers have been blackballed in much the same way that UConn has despite also being a no brainer add. The rest of that league? Yikes. Too many small schools, states, and redundancies.
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