Collier v Ionescu

[j66kicker]

If UConn was undefeated and just killing everybody Napheesa might have a chance. That's not the case. Sabrina is getting all the press (and deserves it). She's going to win it going away.

 

[bbballfan23]

If UConn was undefeated and just killing everybody Napheesa might have a chance. That's not the case. Sabrina is getting all the press (and deserves it). She's going to win it going away.

Unfortunately, you’re probably correct. If Oregon runs the table in the PAC I think it’ll conclude it. But if she has a couple tough nights & they lose....never know.

 

[DefenseBB]

Definitely not a 2 man race. Ionescu is obvious favorite right now after the Stanford game with others like McCowan, Collier, Arike, Gustafson, Durr, etc. within striking distance.

I agree it’s more than 2 but not 6. The leaders according to my stat analysis, game play against top teams are in top to bottom order are:
1. Sabrina Ionescu
2. Napheesa Collier
3. Asia Durr
4. Megan Gustafson
Distant 5th/6th are McCowan and Arike
It’s not like they are bad but team success contributes to the perception.

 

[bballnut90]

I agree it’s more than 2 but not 6. The leaders according to my stat analysis, game play against top teams are in top to bottom order are:
1. Sabrina Ionescu
2. Napheesa Collier
3. Asia Durr
4. Megan Gustafson
Distant 5th/6th are McCowan and Arike
It’s not like they are bad but team success contributes to the perception.

Realistically it's a 1 man race right now with Ionescu leading the pack and everyone chasing her. If one of the players below catches fire and Oregon/Sabrina tanks, then it's a new ballgame. The only one I just cant see winning is Gustafson.

 

[bbballfan23]

Looks like we officially have a race! Oregon loses last night as Ionescu goes 9-25 & 0-6 from 3. Whoever finishes the year strongest could very well end up winning NPOY.

 

[SCyankee]

Realistically it's a 1 man race right now with Ionescu leading the pack and everyone chasing her. If one of the players below catches fire and Oregon/Sabrina tanks, then it's a new ballgame. The only one I just cant see winning is Gustafson.

Ionescu's advantage is the position she plays. She controls the ball and the play much more. One on one against each other Pheesa dominates .

 

[bbfanLA]

The 5 POY awards are Naismith, Wooden, Wade, AP and USBWA. In 2014, Breanna Stewart won 3 of them while Sims and Ogwumike each won one. This is probably another year where there are multiple POY winners among the five awards.

 

[oldude]

The 5 POY awards are Naismith, Wooden, Wade, AP and USBWA. In 2014, Breanna Stewart won 3 of them while Sims and Ogwumike each won one. This is probably another year where there are multiple POY winners among the five awards.

Yes, but in 2016, Stewie won everything in sight.

 

[bbfanLA]

Yes, but in 2016, Stewie won everything in sight.

I think that 2014 was the last time the POY awards were split though it happened quite a few times before that.

 

[bbballfan23]

The 5 POY awards are Naismith, Wooden, Wade, AP and USBWA. In 2014, Breanna Stewart won 3 of them while Sims and Ogwumike each won one. This is probably another year where there are multiple POY winners among the five awards.

I think this is a year where there SHOULD be multiple winners. You can’t sit here and say one candidate is clearly above another, anymore.

 

[Dokey]

Collier makes everyone else’s assist total better

Or the ability of the other players, especially Crystal and Lou, to deliver the ball makes Collier better. More likely a combination of both, unselfish team play.

 

[cohenzone]

Or the ability of the other players, especially Crystal and Lou, to deliver the ball makes Collier better. More likely a combination of both, unselfish team play.

I was sort of kidding. Collier is such a steady finisher on passes that result in a barrel of assists every game.

BTY, I saw Ionescu in a high school all star game and she was easily the most impressive player on the floor. I would not have cried if she wore a UConn uniform.

 

[LoTrader]

Looks like we officially have a race! Oregon loses last night as Ionescu goes 9-25 & 0-6 from 3. Whoever finishes the year strongest could very well end up winning NPOY.

Two fantastic players, and I will be happy no matter which earns the award this year.

 

[Grad1990]

Overall basketball skills, I see Sabrina having the edge,

??? The stats don't support that conclusion. They are both better at some skills than is the other. They both make their teams better. Comparisons between the two are difficult because they play different positions. However, I do think Pheesa is the more consistent of the two, and more pro ready, while Ionescu is more dynamic. They are both going to start in the WNBA on day 1.

It's too bad that all of the talk about Ionescu's triple doubles, an overrated stat at best, will taint the POY discussions. I do think it is a two horse race and that Ionescu will very likely get it. The media loves stories and Ionescu's triple doubles check that box.

They are both great players. However, if you just take the basic stats; Points + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks - turnovers, then Pheesa has the clear advantage. The stats says that on average Pheesa contributes more to her team's output than does Ionescu.

If you divide the total by minutes played, Pheesa is substantially ahead of Ionescu. That makes the triple doubles little more than eye candy.

Congrats on Oregon State's win last night! They are going to be a very tough out in the tournament, and a team that UConn will not match up all that well with.

 

[bballnut90]

??? The stats don't support that conclusion. They are both better at some skills than is the other. They both make their teams better. Comparisons between the two are difficult because they play different positions. However, I do think Pheesa is the more consistent of the two, and more pro ready, while Ionescu is more dynamic. They are both going to start in the WNBA on day 1.

It's too bad that all of the talk about Ionescu's triple doubles, an overrated stat at best, will taint the POY discussions. I do think it is a two horse race and that Ionescu will very likely get it. The media loves stories and Ionescu's triple doubles check that box.

They are both great players. However, if you just take the basic stats; Points + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks - turnovers, then Pheesa has the clear advantage. The stats says that on average Pheesa contributes more to her team's output than does Ionescu.

If you divide the total by minutes played, Pheesa is substantially ahead of Ionescu. That makes the triple doubles little more than eye candy.

Congrats on Oregon State's win last night! They are going to be a very tough out in the tournament, and a team that UConn will not match up all that well with.

That's if you equate a rebound or a block as equal to an assist. Numbers are an advantage for Ionescu IMO when you factor in the value of her assists as well as her overall impact on the offensive end. Numbers wise it's:
Ionescu: 19.3 ppg, 8.0 assists, 7.2 rebounds, 1.5 steals, 2.5 turnovers, 0.2 blocks, 45.5% FG, 44.7% 3pt, 87.5% FT

Collier: 19.8 ppg, 10.2 rpg, 3.8 assists, 1.5 blocks, 1.4 steals, 1.8 turnovers, 61.2% FG, 22.7% 3pt, 68% FT.

Then you have to look at players like Durr, Ogunbowale, and McCowan, all of whom have POY worthy numbers as well and are on top teams. It's far from a 2 man race at this point, there are a lot of great players having fantastic seasons right now.

Most on here want Collier to win, which is understandable, but my guess is that across women's basketball most believe Ionescu is the deserving winner if the season ended today. She has been magnificent in big games, her all around stats are off the charts, and she's the best in the nation with the ball in her hands.


Side note--I think UCONN matches up very favorably with Oregon State. UCONN's weakness is size inside, and Oregon State relies heavily on perimeter scoring and 3pt shooters. A more dangerous team is one that is going to dominate the glass and has a big offensive presence inside.

 

[LoTrader]

That's if you equate a rebound or a block as equal to an assist. Numbers are an advantage for Ionescu IMO when you factor in the value of her assists as well as her overall impact on the offensive end. Numbers wise it's:
Ionescu: 19.3 ppg, 8.0 assists, 7.2 rebounds, 1.5 steals, 2.5 turnovers, 0.2 blocks, 45.5% FG, 44.7% 3pt, 87.5% FT

Collier: 19.8 ppg, 10.2 rpg, 3.8 assists, 1.5 blocks, 1.4 steals, 1.8 turnovers, 61.2% FG, 22.7% 3pt, 68% FT.

Then you have to look at players like Durr, Ogunbowale, and McCowan, all of whom have POY worthy numbers as well and are on top teams. It's far from a 2 man race at this point, there are a lot of great players having fantastic seasons right now.

Most on here want Collier to win, which is understandable, but my guess is that across women's basketball most believe Ionescu is the deserving winner if the season ended today. She has been magnificent in big games, her all around stats are off the charts, and she's the best in the nation with the ball in her hands.


Side note--I think UCONN matches up very favorably with Oregon State. UCONN's weakness is size inside, and Oregon State relies heavily on perimeter scoring and 3pt shooters. A more dangerous team is one that is going to dominate the glass and has a big offensive presence inside.

That is interesting...I happen to think OSU would match up well with UCONN? Maybe it will play out this way come tournament time. I think it would be a very good game. Would love to see it happen.

 

[Bigboote]

I wouldn't trade Collier for Ionescu if I'm Geno. I wouldn't trade Ionescu for Collier if I'm Kelly. If I'm building up a team from the bottom, I'm not sure which I'd pick. They're both really good, versatile players to build around. They're both glue players. I'm glad I don't have to vote.

 

[Rsna]

Why are U talking about Oregon’s pt guard and claiming Oregon State would be a good matchup for Ucon

 

[Grad1990]

That's if you equate a rebound or a block as equal to an assist.

This has the potential for an argument that neither of is going to win. That said....

.....vs. an assist; I would put a greater value on either a block or a steal because it is potentially a 4 to a 6 point play. In addition, it puts a team on defense without the benefit of a full script to defend what's coming next. Blocks and steals have the potential to change the outcome of games more than do assists. You never hear about game changing/ending assists....but blocks and steals? Yes.

Ultimately....there is an intangible that is hard to measure or quantify....but arguing that an assist is the more valuable is at best a difficult case to make; at worst impossible. Mainly, because it is easy to prove it isn't always true.

 

[Grad1990]

Then you have to look at players like Durr, Ogunbowale, and McCowan, all of whom have POY worthy numbers as well and are on top teams.

The player with the best overall stats is Megan Gustafson. In fact, its not even close.

Next would be McGowan, followed by Pheesa and Ionescu....based on stats, Durr and AO are out of the race

 

[bballnut90]

This has the potential for an argument that neither of is going to win. That said....

.....vs. an assist; I would put a greater value on either a block or a steal because it is potentially a 4 to a 6 point play. In addition, it puts a team on defense without the benefit of a full script to defend what's coming next. Blocks and steals have the potential to change the outcome of games more than do assists. You never hear about game changing/ending assists....but blocks and steals? Yes.

Ultimately....there is an intangible that is hard to measure or quantify....but arguing that an assist is the more valuable is at best a difficult case to make; at worst impossible. Mainly, because it is easy to prove it isn't always true.

Fair enough, I just don't think adding up PRASB-Turnovers to generate a number is a good way to evaluate POY candidates. If you do that, players like Bird, Taurasi, and Stewart wouldn't have won some of their POY awards. Those stats also generally favor forwards/centers because they're more likely to grab rebounds playing closer to the basket than guards.

 

[bbballfan23]

It’s definitely a 2 person race if you listen to any talking head or read articles on it. Not sure why people on here really think McCowan, Arike, Durr have a chance?? Gustafson has the most impressive stats but no one really takes her seriously to win POY because her team is weak. Even Antonelli dodged the question on Twitter when asked how high Gustafson was on POY lost. She said, “A top 10 player on everyone’s watch list & pick for Big 10 POY & AA.” Basically, she’s great & AA but not POY material.

 

[Grad1990]

I just don't think adding up PRASB-Turnovers to generate a number is a good way to evaluate POY candidates..

I completely agree.

Frankly, In substance, I don't know how you choose one over the other. That said, I do believe they will give it to Sabrina because of the triple double eye candy.

 

[eebmg]

I admit Ionescu's subpar game against OSU on ESPN may have dinged her a little but if she leads her team and dominates play without Hebard to the PAC12 championship, that would seal the deal. Pheesa has no more high visibility games to push the needle

 

[HuskylnSC]

Watched the Ducks v beavers game the other night and paid special attention to Sabrina. Nice player and would love to have her at UConn. However I was disappointed in her game that night. I was disappointed to see that she did not seem able to go to her right (also disappointed that beavers did not overplay the left). Almost all of her scoring was drives down the left side of the lane. Also felt most of her rebounds were achieved by using her great motor to run down long rebounds and not too many were the aggressive inside rebounds that I like to see from a player. She did lead her team back to the lead with numerous left hand drives, but at the final crunch she came up empty with missed shots and a costly turnover. I saw nothing from either team that would give me cause for concern. Granted it was one game, but I expected more.

 

[Zanzman]

It’s a little harder for a guard to be under the hoop rebounding Which makes her rebounding numbers a little more impressive

 

[bbballfan23]

I admit Ionescu's subpar game against OSU on ESPN may have dinged her a little but if she leads her team and dominates play without Hebard to the PAC12 championship, that would seal the deal. Pheesa has no more high visibility games to push the needle

They actually play on ESPN two more times. Last game ba USF & their conference tournament championship.

 

[Undercovervol]

Maybe another way to approach his is to ask: If I am a wbb coach with the opportunity to choose one current player as the foundation for my team, whom would it be? Pheesa has been my favorite UCONN player of the post-Stewie years, and there is no other player whose play (or personality and values) I admire more, but from this perspective it seems to me that it would be difficult not to pick Ionescu. She's not Diana, but I think she's the closest thing since.

Pheesa has also been my favorite UConn player post Stewart. Her sophomore season was unbelievable. That being said, I agree with the other posters who compare Sabrina to Taurasi. She’s the closest thing to her I’ve seen (Maya plays a different position). Sabrina has every shot available to her, from 3 point to pull up.

 

[wallman]

I don't normally do this as I think the awards are pointless but I am going with Gustafson. Her stats are off the charts, she doesn't have great players around her, she keeps putting up these numbers. This award has nothing to do with the next level it is simply 1 years performance and hers has been one for the ages.

 

[eebmg]

I admit Ionescu's subpar game against OSU on ESPN may have dinged her a little but if she leads her team and dominates play without Hebard to the PAC12 championship, that would seal the deal. Pheesa has no more high visibility games to push the needle

They actually play on ESPN two more times. Last game ba USF & their conference tournament championship.

I admit my language was misleading. By high visability, I just meant important / competitive. Just being on ESPN does not make it important on it's own but I had brought up ESPN for OU vs ORST since no one outside the PAC12 world really gets a good look at her.