Collier v Ionescu

[bbballfan23]

The NPOY award has turned into a two-horse race between Pheesa & Sabrina. No disrespect to any other candidates but I think it's become clear. I wanted to do a little more digging and here's something interesting I found.

PER (Player Efficiency Rating) is the primary equation used to judge who the best player in the NBA is. 7 of the last 8 MVPs led the league in PER. Steph was the exception in 2014/15 when he finished 3rd in PER. He finished behind Anthony Davis & Russell Westbrook (their teams finished 8th & 9th in the Western Conference). I included this because I know we will get some Anigwe or Gustafson arguments but they aren't on true contenders.

I used this equation for those wondering how I got to these numbers. Cracking the Code: How to Calculate Hollinger's PER Without All the Mess

2018/2019 Season

1. Pheesa- 30.8 PER
2. Sabrina- 25.9 PER
3. Durr- 23.2 PER

Past Winners

• A'ja Wilson- 33.2 PER
• Plum- 32.1 PER (Collier had 35.6 PER that year)
• Stewie 2016- 36.8 PER (THIS IS CRAZY!)
• Stewie 2015- 30.4 PER

 

[bbballfan23]

Collier
32.2mpg, 19.8ppg, 10.1reb, 3.8ast, 1.3stl, 1.5blk, 61% FG, 23% 3PT, 68%FT, 2.2 A/TO, 13 Double-Doubles, 0 Triple-Dobules

Ionescu
34.7mpg, 19.3ppg, 7.3reb, 8.2ast, 1.5stl, 0.3blk, 46%FG, 46% 3PT, 87%FT, 3.2 A/TO, 10 Double-Doubles, 6 Triple-Doubles

 

[PoppaBear]

Gustafson should definitely be in the conversation. Just saying I think it's a three person race

 

[TheFarmFan]

Collier
32.2mpg, 19.8ppg, 10.1reb, 3.8ast, 1.3stl, 1.5blk, 61% FG, 23% 3PT, 68%FT, 2.2 A/TO, 13 Double-Doubles, 0 Triple-Dobules

Ionescu
34.7mpg, 19.3ppg, 7.3reb, 8.2ast, 1.5stl, 0.3blk, 46%FG, 46% 3PT, 87%FT, 3.2 A/TO, 10 Double-Doubles, 6 Triple-Doubles

Triple doubles are also double doubles, so it's silly to give that category to Pheesa - Ionescu has had 16 double doubles. I know this is a uconn board, but...

 

[bbballfan23]

Triple doubles are also double doubles, so it's silly to give that category to Pheesa - Ionescu has had 16 double doubles. I know this is a uconn board, but...

The 10 Double-Doubles include her 6 Triple-Doubles, oddly enough. So no, she doesn't have 16 double-doubles.

 

[Charliebball]

I'd say that regardless of what we might think, it's just like when A'ja Wilson won it, as far as the national press is concerned it's Ionescu's to lose............

 

[nwhoopfan]

Both are worthy candidates, as are some others. All I will say is that it's very difficult to compare a front court player to a back court player. They have very different roles and responsibilities on the court.

 

[bbballfan23]

I'd say that regardless of what we might think, it's just like when A'ja Wilson won it, as far as the national press is concerned it's Ionescu's to lose..

Agreed, but A’ja obviously deserved it last year. Geno has began pushing for Collier, now it’s up to the local press to start.

I would have no issue if both Ionescu & Collier won. My fear is like yours, they may have already decided.

 

[bbballfan23]

Both are worthy candidates, as are some others. All I will say is that it's very difficult to compare a front court player to a back court player. They have very different roles and responsibilities on the court.

I agree, that’s why I did the PER calculation.

 

[ochoopsfan]

Ionescu
Besides being even in scoring, she makes every other player better with her play making.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Ionescu
Besides being even in scoring, she makes every other player better with her play making.

I was thinking along those lines. Collier makes UConn a better team, they would be in trouble without her, but hard to argue she makes her teammates better in the way that Ionescu does.

 

[bballnut90]

The NPOY award has turned into a two-horse race between Pheesa & Sabrina. No disrespect to any other candidates but I think it's become clear. I wanted to do a little more digging and here's something interesting I found.

PER (Player Efficiency Rating) is the primary equation used to judge who the best player in the NBA is. 7 of the last 8 MVPs led the league in PER. Steph was the exception in 2014/15 when he finished 3rd in PER. He finished behind Anthony Davis & Russell Westbrook (their teams finished 8th & 9th in the Western Conference). I included this because I know we will get some Anigwe or Gustafson arguments but they aren't on true contenders.

I used this equation for those wondering how I got to these numbers. Cracking the Code: How to Calculate Hollinger's PER Without All the Mess

2018/2019 Season

1. Pheesa- 30.8 PER
2. Sabrina- 25.9 PER
3. Durr- 23.2 PER

Past Winners

• A'ja Wilson- 33.2 PER
• Plum- 32.1 PER (Collier had 35.6 PER that year)
• Stewie 2016- 36.8 PER (THIS IS CRAZY!)
• Stewie 2015- 30.4 PER

Definitely not a 2 man race. Ionescu is obvious favorite right now after the Stanford game with others like McCowan, Collier, Arike, Gustafson, Durr, etc. within striking distance.

 

[EricLA]

If Pheesa can score 25-30 every game the rest of the season and continue to post double-doubles, it's possible she can catch Sabrina, but like Wilson last year, Inoescu has already been anointed. NOT saying Wilson was undeserving, just annoyed that she was anointed at the start of the season. Might as well have given her the NPOY trophy in November. Same for Inoescu this year.

 

[Fightin Choke]

I agree, that’s why I did the PER calculation.

But PER favors F and P over guards. Unless you're a guard who rebounds a lot, you usually don't have a top level PER. Just look at the top 10 in the NBA. LINK The only ones who are front court players are Harden (PG), Curry (PG), LeBron (SF) and Leonard (SF). The last 6 are 4 C and 2 PF. Centers are 9 of the top 20 PERs.

 

[nwhoopfan]

What's with this "anointed" stuff? I'm not buying it. There were a number of big name, high profile candidates heading into the season. None of them was going to be gifted any POY awards. The season has unfolded the way it has, and a few of those candidates have risen to the forefront. ESPN isn't the last word but the unbelievable number of times they have replayed a clip of Ogunbowale's game winners in the Tourney last year makes me seriously question how anyone thinks Ionescu was anointed anything.

edited--the fact that many don't have Pac-12 Network hurts Ionescu. To me at the beginning of the year I would have said it was more likely one of Samuelson, Ogunbowale or Durr would emerge as the POY. More visibility and closer to all the major media.

 

[jaundicedeye]

Ionescu
Besides being even in scoring, she makes every other player better with her play making.

Same could be said for a forward that scores and draws defenses in; rebounds and starts the break; plays defense down low and lets perimeter players take chances; and can run the floor and pass.
Just saying.

 

[bbballfan23]

But PER favors F and P over guards. Unless you're a guard who rebounds a lot, you usually don't have a top level PER. Just look at the top 10 in the NBA. LINK The only ones who are front court players are Harden (PG), Curry (PG), LeBron (SF) and Leonard (SF). The last 6 are 4 C and 2 PF. Centers are 9 of the top 20 PERs.

Actually it doesn’t. It takes into account everything including Assists, turnovers, steals, 3 pointers made, free throws missed which all historically favors guards.

There’s a reason why MJ, LeBron are 1 & 2 all-time PER. Also, Chris Paul is 7th all-time, which is hard to believe.

 

[donalddoowop]

Definitely not a 2 man race. Ionescu is obvious favorite right now after the Stanford game with others like McCowan, Collier, Arike, Gustafson, Durr, etc. within striking distance.

McCowan did not help her cause last night.

 

[Orangutan]

Actually it doesn’t. It takes into account everything including Assists, turnovers, steals, 3 pointers made, free throws missed which all historically favors guards.

There’s a reason why MJ, LeBron are 1 & 2 all-time PER. Also, Chris Paul is 7th all-time, which is hard to believe.

Well, 3-6 on the all-time list are Anthony Davis, Shaq, David Robinson and Wilt Chamberlain. MJ and Lebron as the top 2 matches the eye test quite well. Davis and Robinson in the top 5 doesn't.

I like PER but I wonder if you can really apply PER to college players very well. PER is calculated using variables that are based on the league averages in certain statistics. Here there is no league to speak of. If you calculate based on the formula link in the OP, aren't you basically calculating PER with respect to the 2009 NBA? That's not a rhetorical question, by the way. I'm not great at math generally and worse at statistics, so I could definitely be wrong.

Anyhow, I appreciate the effort to calculate these numbers and I think they are interesting but I don't know if they are accurate enough to be a good gauge of who should be PoY.

 

[bbballfan23]

Definitely not a 2 man race. Ionescu is obvious favorite right now after the Stanford game with others like McCowan, Collier, Arike, Gustafson, Durr, etc. within striking distance.

The gap is pretty wide from Collier to the next closest. Again, Gustafson isn’t on a contender, she probably deserves to be on the 5 person AP 1st-team AA but they won’t consider her for NPOY. Durr doesnt do much besides score. Arike inconsistent volume shooter. See McCowan last night.

Not saying these aren’t worthy candidates but It’s a 2-person race. I too believe Ionescu is still in the lead & hard to imagine she won’t win bc media influence behind her being the “triple double queen”.

 

[bbballfan23]

Well, 3-6 on the all-time list are Anthony Davis, Shaq, David Robinson and Wilt Chamberlain. MJ and Lebron as the top 2 matches the eye test quite well. Davis and Robinson in the top 5 doesn't.

I like PER but I wonder if you can really apply PER to college players very well. PER is calculated using variables that are based on the league averages in certain statistics. Here there is no league to speak of. If you calculate based on the formula link in the OP, aren't you basically calculating PER with respect to the 2009 NBA? That's not a rhetorical question, by the way. I'm not great at math generally and worse at statistics, so I could definitely be wrong.

Anyhow, I appreciate the effort to calculate these numbers and I think they are interesting but I don't know if they are accurate enough to be a good gauge of who should be PoY.

No doubt it doesn’t always give the big picture because I’m big on the eye test, also. I only thought it was interesting to dive deeper into the stats because it’s the big driving force being Ionescu. Thanks for taking the time to Analyze.

 

[Shades]

Again, Gustafson isn’t on a contender, she probably deserves to be on the 5 person AP 1st-team AA but they won’t consider her for NPOY.

Isn’t Iowa as much a contender as Washington was when Plum won NPOY?

 

[j66kicker]

Isn’t Iowa as much a contender as Washington was when Plum won NPOY?

Plum’s was more of a scoring record lifetime achievement award. Gustafson doesn’t have something like that going.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Isn’t Iowa as much a contender as Washington was when Plum won NPOY?

That's an interesting question. I don't think anyone really thought UW was a National Championship contender. They were ranked in the top 10 much of the year and were locked in a battle for their conference title. Iowa now finds themselves in a two team race for the Big 10 title but I think the Pac 12 in '16-'17 has to be considered a lot stronger than the Big 10 in '18-'19. So I guess the short answer is UW was maybe marginally more of a contender, but not much.

Gustafson puts up impressive numbers and is the model of consistency. Plum was similar. I don't think POY should be a career achievement award, but probably Plum chasing down the long standing scoring record worked in her favor. She did have an absolutely fantastic year though, she was spectacular throughout.

 

[bballnut90]

The gap is pretty wide from Collier to the next closest. Again, Gustafson isn’t on a contender, she probably deserves to be on the 5 person AP 1st-team AA but they won’t consider her for NPOY. Durr doesnt do much besides score. Arike inconsistent volume shooter. See McCowan last night.

Not saying these aren’t worthy candidates but It’s a 2-person race. I too believe Ionescu is still in the lead & hard to imagine she won’t win bc media influence behind her being the “triple double queen”.

I'd put Durr over Collier right now. Her team won head to head and Asia was the star that night. Durr and Arike average the same shots per game (16) which is less than 2 per game more than KLS/Ionescu, and I don't think anyone on here would call either player a volume shooter. Durr is also leading an unheralded Louisville team to a fantastic season where they could arguably be the #1 team in the country right now.

McCowan also is right there with Collier...17/14/2.5 blocks on 65% FG and she is extremely good defensively. I'd probably put Collier ahead after last night, but if there's any gap it is minimal.

Ionescu is pretty solidly #1 right now regardless if there's a media influence or not. Stats, eye test, and team results all say she's the clear POY at this point in time. Her team right now has firmly entrenched itself as a top 3 team and her numbers are ridiculous. Moreover, she affects the game more than anyone else in the country with her passing and ability to score. Collier is having a great senior season, but Ionescu is ahead of her right now and it has nothing to do with media bias.