->Concerned that their four-team product has been harmed by the dominance of a select few teams from the same region, FBS commissioners are seriously considering expanding the College Football Playoff. And while it’s long been assumed that any change to the format would be modest, several influential decision-makers are suddenly open to a playoff system that skips past eight teams and into the double digits. “I sense 12 teams is building support,” one Power 5 athletic director said. <-
-> “There are two unintended consequences people didn’t see when they created the Playoff,” said a college administrator familiar with the discussions. “One, seeing the same teams over and over from one part of the country. It’s impairing the product, because there’s boredom. … There’s risk to not enough (geographic) spread. Secondly, the brand damage to a conference that doesn’t get in it.” <-
-> Of the 28 available spots in the Playoff so far, Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State and Oklahoma have filled 20. The fear of fatigue from a significant portion of the college-football watching public is real. With no salary cap and no draft to even out the talent levels among the teams, college football can’t rely on rapid changes in teams’ fortunes to keep things fresh. That means there is no telling when a new set of teams might cycle up to take the place of some of the current dominant teams. <-
-> Another major factor is that interest in the bowls beneath the Playoff has waned for fans and for players. Opt-outs have become more common as draft-eligible players choose not to risk injury in games that have no stakes attached. For example, the Florida team that lost by six points to eventual national champ Alabama in the SEC Championship played in the Cotton Bowl against Oklahoma without its best player (tight end Kyle Pitts) and three other starters. The result was a lopsided Oklahoma win in a matchup that didn’t resemble what organizers hoped they’d get when the game was set. One reason commissioners opted for a four-team Playoff after scrapping the BCS was in an effort to protect the bowl system. Multiple sources indicated they don’t expect the commissioners to fight so hard for the bowls this time. <-
-> Another key factor is whether ESPN would be willing to rip up the current deal and pay more for an expanded playoff. A former television network executive believes ESPN would be willing to play ball: “There are only so many platinum properties.” In the last non-pandemic season, the CFP semifinal games averaged 17.2 million and 21.2 million viewers, respectively. The national title game between LSU and Clemson averaged 25.6 million viewers. All those games aired on ESPN. The last non-pandemic NBA Finals — which aired on free-over-the-air ABC — averaged 15.1 million viewers per game. <-
->Renegotiating the deal now also provides another advantage to ESPN — keeping the Playoff from hitting the open market. If the leagues want to expand the Playoff before 2026, they have to do it with ESPN. <-
