Coaching wins

[MilfordHusky]

The big question: Can Geno get 106 before Tara gets 86? I think it will be close. It will take 3 seasons for either.

 

[j66kicker]

The big question: Can Geno get 106 before Tara gets 86? I think it will be close. It will take 3 seasons for either.

To me the more interesting question than which one gets there first is which one will keep coaching longer and leave the lasting mark. I hope this is motivation for Geno to stick around, although I would never want to see a CViv situation.

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

After reading your post I checked out NC’s schedule. The Tar Heels have more cupcakes lined up than a school bake sale.

They always have more cupcakes than . . . Nothing new for them. One of our posters has mocked them for years on our message board, I forget what he once called it a "tour through", but it was cute and apt.

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

How are the pre-season WNIT teams selected?
UConn played in 2001, ND in 2016 (or thereabouts).
OSU played sometime in between.

I don't off-hand know, it can be looked up, I'm sure. I suspect a committee somewhere. In any case, so far as I know, the only restriction is "once every four years".

For a better team it yields a couple "extra" games (the entire tourney only counts as "2" toward your 29, so if you play 4 you are playing 31 regular season). The first 2 games are likely to be cupcakes, the third game is problematical but probably against a decent team, and the finalists are regularly good.

 

[Vowelguy]

How are the pre-season WNIT teams selected?

I imagine they just ask teams until they get 16. Any school that has good home attendance would be coveted, as I'm sure the WNIT gets some cut of the gate.

 

[Plebe]

How are the pre-season WNIT teams selected?
UConn played in 2001, ND in 2016 (or thereabouts).
OSU played sometime in between.

From the WNIT website:

Preseason WNIT Tournament Overview
The Women's National Invitation Tournament is an annual invitation-only tournament involving 16 of the nation's top women's Division I basketball teams. A team may participate no more than once in a four-year period. Additionally, only one institution per conference may play in the tournament in the same year.

Teams are selected for the Preseason WNIT based on their program’s expected success for that season, their relevant past, their conference standings, fan base, and geographical location, to name a few criteria

 

[Plebe]

They always have more cupcakes than . . . Nothing new for them. One of our posters has mocked them for years on our message board, I forget what he once called it a "tour through", but it was cute and apt.

Yes, Hatchell has always played a nonconference schedule that makes Brenda Frese's look ambitious. Remember she was the one who in the summer of 1994 refused to travel to UConn in the MLK game that ESPN tried to put together. She would only agree to the game if it were played in Chapel Hill.

 

[Vowelguy]

1. Summitt . 1098
2. Tara .. . 1012 + 00 =1012 (nxt: 11/17 UCRive)
3. Geno .. .. 991 + 01 = 992 (nxt: 11/17 Cal)
4. Hatchell . 990 + 01 = 991 (nxt: 11/16 Radford)
5. Stevens .. 983 + 02 = 985 (nxt: 11/15)
6. Stringer . 977 + 02 = 979 (nxt: 11/16 @Charlotte)
7. Conradt .. 900
8. Foster ... 886 + 00 = 886 (nxt: )

Earliest these could happen:

• GA wins 1000th -- 12/19 Okla (My guess: 12/19)
• Hatchell @1000 -- 12/17 Wash (My guess: 12/17)
• Stevens @ 1000 -- Jan 2018 (My guess: Jan 2018)
• Stringer @1000 -- Feb 2018 (My guess: Dec 2018)
• TaraV ties PHS -- 2019-20 season

 

[EricLA]

Go Tara! Pat set the bar very high and it would have been much higher if not for her illness. But it's so great to see several other legends making their own mark.

Is that correct that Geno is "only" 21 behind Tara? Not sure he'll catch her in the short term, but as "good" as Stanford generally is, 6-8 losses a year could have Geno catching her in 3-4 years. Maybe not likely, but interesting for sure...

 

[Vowelguy]

Is that correct that Geno is "only" 21 behind Tara?

How dare you!!! @triaddukefan what would be an appropriate meme of righteous indignation?

And the gap is 20.

1. Tara .. . 1012 + 00 =1012 (nxt: 11/17 UCRive)
2. Geno .. .. 991 + 01 = 992 (nxt: 11/17 Cal)

 

[Aluminny69]

Go Tara! Pat set the bar very high and it would have been much higher if not for her illness. But it's so great to see several other legends making their own mark.

Pat Summitt started coaching at age 22. I don't believe we will ever see that happen again.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Does getting Christyn and Olivia count as 2 wins for Geno?

 

[Vowelguy]

1. Summitt . 1098
2. Tara .. . 1012 + 00 =1012 (nxt: 11/17 UCRiv, 11/19 CSBak, 11/23 Kent , 11/29 @SFr)
3. Geno .. .. 991 + 01 = 992 (nxt: N17 #20 Cal, N19 #15 MD , N21 @ #8UCLA)
4. Hatchell . 990 + 01 = 991 (nxt: 11/16 Radf , 11/19 SoAla, 11/22 UNCW , 11/29 Minn)
5. Stevens .. 983 + 03 = 986 (nxt: .... .... .... .... ..... 11/21 .. .., 11/25, 11/26, 11/29)
6. Stringer . 977 + 02 = 979 (nxt: 11/16 @Char, 11/19 Wake , 11/24 SoCar, 11/30 NCSt)
7. Conradt .. 900
8. Foster ... 886 + 00 = 886 (nxt: 11/18 Stet , 11/20 @Ind , 11/24 vNWrn, 11/25 vGtwn)

Earliest these could happen:

• GA wins 1000th -- 12/19 Okla (My guess: 12/19)
• Hatchell @1000 -- 12/17 Wash (My guess: 12/17)
• Stevens @ 1000 -- Jan 2018 (My guess: Jan 2018)
• Stringer @1000 -- Feb 2018 (My guess: Dec 2018)
• TaraV ties PHS -- 2019-20 season

 

[Vowelguy]

Hatchell racks up another easy win and keeps pace with Geno.

1. Summitt . 1098
2. Tara .. . 1012 + 00 =1012 (nxt: 11/17 UCRiv, 11/19 CSBak, 11/23 Kent , 11/29 @SFr)
3. Geno .. .. 991 + 01 = 992 (nxt: N17 #20 Cal, N19 #15 MD , N21 @ #8UCLA)
4. Hatchell . 990 + 02 = 992 (nxt: .... .... .. 11/19 SoAla, 11/22 UNCW , 11/29 Minn)
5. Stevens .. 983 + 03 = 986 (nxt: .... .... .... .... ..... 11/21 .. .., 11/25, 11/26, 11/29)
6. Stringer . 977 + 03 = 980 (nxt: .... .... .. 11/19 Wake , 11/24 SoCar, 11/30 NCSt)
7. Conradt .. 900
8. Foster ... 886 + 00 = 886 (nxt: 11/18 Stet , 11/20 @Ind , 11/24 vNWrn, 11/25 vGtwn)

Earliest these could happen:

• GA wins 1000th -- 12/19 Okla (My guess: 12/19)
• Hatchell @1000 -- 12/17 Wash (My guess: 12/17)
• Stevens @ 1000 -- Jan 2018 (My guess: Jan 2018)
• Stringer @1000 -- Feb 2018 (My guess: Dec 2018)
• TaraV ties PHS -- 2019-20 season

 

[Puppy Love]

Pat Summitt started coaching at age 22. I don't believe we will ever see that happen again.

Tyler tried it at a very young age, we know how that story ended. It will make it much harder for any school to take a chance on someone that young again.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Tyler tried it at a very young age, we know how that story ended. It will make it much harder for any school to take a chance on someone that young again.

I was thinking of Tyler. He was an assistant at Marquette for a couple of years. He was 23 going on 24 when La. Tech hired him.

 

[Plebe]

Hatchell racks up another easy win and keeps pace with Geno.

1. Summitt . 1098
2. Tara .. . 1012 + 00 =1012 (nxt: 11/17 UCRiv, 11/19 CSBak, 11/23 Kent , 11/29 @SFr)
3. Geno .. .. 991 + 01 = 992 (nxt: N17 #20 Cal, N19 #15 MD , N21 @ #8UCLA)
4. Hatchell . 990 + 02 = 992 (nxt: .... .... .. 11/19 SoAla, 11/22 UNCW , 11/29 Minn)

The timing of the race to 1,000 is intriguing. Hatchell could now be considered "ahead" of Geno because she would get there two days before him if both of their teams remain undefeated. If Hatchell loses just one game on the way, though, she and Geno would both hit 1,000 on the same day (Dec. 19). All of UNC's nonconference games are quite winnable, to put it nicely:

 

[Ex Nutmegger]

I like Geno's chances of going by Pat before Tara. In fact, I think he will have a three or four game cushion when he hits 1099. Below is some comparative number crunching that I believe is correct. Any corrections are humbly accepted.

Stanford now has just 26 regular season games left on their regular season schedule. Then they have 3 PAC-12 tournament games(assuming they don't lose the PAC-12 semi-final or final game.). Let's say they win their tournament championship. That gives them 29 games played. In the NC tournament I see them losing in the elite eight. That means 4 more games played with the last one a loss. So a total of 32 more possible wins if they run the table from now to their likely loss in the elite eight. But I see them losing 5 or 6 games in the regular season/PAC-12 tourney. That drops them to 26 or 27 wins this season.

UConn now has 28 regular season games remaining(it looks like Stanford is playing one less regular season game than us this year, unlike most previous years.). Then we have 3 AAC tournament games and a possible 6 NC tournament games for a possible total of 37 total wins if we run the table out the door(don't worry about the mojo - I am typing with my fingers crossed!)

So my "calculations" show Geno picking up 10 or 11 games on Tara this year. That's my story; and until at least late February, I'm sticking to it!

 

[Plebe]

I like Geno's chances of going by Pat before Tara. In fact, I think he will have a three or four game cushion when he hits 1099. Below is some comparative number crunching that I believe is correct. Any corrections are humbly accepted.

Stanford now has just 26 regular season games left on their regular season schedule. Then they have 3 PAC-12 tournament games(assuming they don't lose the PAC-12 semi-final or final game.). Let's say they win their tournament championship. That gives them 29 games played. In the NC tournament I see them losing in the elite eight. That means 4 more games played with the last one a loss. So a total of 32 more possible wins if they run the table from now to their likely loss in the elite eight. But I see them losing 5 or 6 games in the regular season/PAC-12 tourney. That drops them to 26 or 27 wins this season.

I'm counting 28 regular season games left for Stanford. If you were using ESPN's site to count the games, they aren't showing the games that Stanford will play on Nov. 24 and 25 as part of the Play4Kay Showcase in Las Vegas. (Their game against Kent State is the first-round game, and their opponents in the next two games are TBD.) See schedule here:
GoStanford.com | Stanford Athletics

http://kay.bdglobalsports.com/#!/schedule

 

[Suebird10fan]

Based on recruiting success over the last week, Geno is a clear favorite to get to 1,099 first IMO.

In the last 10 years Geno has averaged 37.0 wins per year. I suspect that is a minimum for the next three years given how loaded the team is. That would get him over the top in March of 2020. (Right around the time the games without losing two in a row hits 1,000!)

Tara has averaged 28.3 wins per year in the post Ogwumike era. Over the next three years she would have to average at least 30.0 to keep pace with Geno's 37.0 (or >). Possible but not so easy. They managed 32 last year by winning the PAC 10 tourney and sneaking into the F4. That sort of thing won't happen every year and may not happen in any of the next three years. Over the last three years only SC, ND, Md, Baylor and UConn averaged 30 wins a year or more. In other words you have to be at or near the top 5 consistently to get that number of wins. I'm dubious that Stanford will be at that level over the next three years.

Tara has a shot of getting there first but I really, really like Geno's chances.

 

[Bestiarius]

Another factor in the race to beat Pat Summitt's win record is the number of seasons the contenders have coached. Geno has six more years to equal Pat's longevity. Number of wins is partially a factor of longevity, and Geno has a minimum of six more years to even the playing field in that category.

Winning percentage is also an important criterion. No one is near Geno.

When these two stats are factored in, Geno is number one by far.

Here are the years coached, records, winning %, Teams coached as of the end of 2016-2017:

1 Pat Summitt 38 1098 208 .841 Tennessee (1974–2012)
2 Tara VanDerveer 38 1012 231 .814 Idaho (1978–80), Ohio State (1980–85), Stanford (1985–95, 1996-)
3 Geno Auriemma 32 991 135 .880 Connecticut (1985-)
4 Sylvia Hatchell 42 990 374 .726 Francis Marion (1975–86), North Carolina (1986-)
5 Barbara Stevens 40 983 274 .782 Clark (MA) (1977–83), Massachusetts (1983–86), Bentley(1986-)
6 C. Vivian Stringer 46 977 390 .715 Cheyney (1971–83), Iowa (1983–95), Rutgers (1995-)
7 Jody Conradt 38 900 309 .744 Sam Houston State (1969–73), Texas-Arlington (1973–76), Texas (1976–2007)
8 Jim Foster 39 886 334 .726 Saint Joseph's (1978–91), Vanderbilt (1991–2002), Ohio State (2002–13), Chattanooga (2013-)

 

[Vowelguy]

The timing of the race to 1,000 is intriguing. Hatchell could now be considered "ahead" of Geno because she would get there two days before him if both of their teams remain undefeated. If Hatchell loses just one game on the way, though, she and Geno would both hit 1,000 on the same day (Dec. 19). All of UNC's nonconference games are quite winnable, to put it nicely:

Yes, hence why I 'm projecting her to hit 1000 on the 17th.

Best chance would probably be Minnesota, which has gotten off to a decent start.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Over the last three years only SC, ND, Md, Baylor and UConn averaged 30 wins a year or more.

Oregon St. has also averaged 30 wins over the last 3 years.

 

[Suebird10fan]

Oregon St. has also averaged 30 wins over the last 3 years.

How right you are! That'll teach me to eyeball it

 

[nwhoopfan]

How right you are! That'll teach me to eyeball it

A bit surprising, although they probably won't get to 30 this year.