Caroline and Tiffany together

[speedoo]

So does anyone really want to bet this UConn team will lose 7 or more games. Please let me in on that.

 

[UConnCat]

Doggydaddy wrote:

"I could go into details about each team (Stanford lost more player contributions than UConn, RU just lost Lee, A&M lost more as well), but suficit to say, I couldn't disagree more. Syracuse?"

What you said is just a start. Duke lost a lot more of its points, rebounds and assists to graduation than UConn did. Same is true for North Carolina (picked to finish #6 in the ACC btw). UConn crushed both of those teams last year.

 

[Kibitzer]

We are doomed! We just won't be the same team. Lucky to be .500 for the upcoming season. We were lucky to replace Rebecca but no way in the world can we replace not one, but two national players of the year, Jen and Kara. How can Geno possibly recruit someone to fill their shoes?

Ooops! Wait. . . I am a clone of Rip Van Winkle and I just awoke from a snooze of a dozen years or so.

What's been happening since I left? Do they still have a wcbb team in Storrs? Are they any good?

 

[speedoo]

Doggydaddy wrote:

"I could go into details about each team (Stanford lost more player contributions than UConn, RU just lost Lee, A&M lost more as well), but suficit to say, I couldn't disagree more. Syracuse?"

What you said is just a start. Duke lost a lot more of its points, rebounds and assists to graduation than UConn did. Same is true for North Carolina (picked to finish #6 in the ACC btw). UConn crushed both of those teams last year.

And Oklahoma lost Robinson.

I swear, this happens every year. The sky-is-falling folks always fail to take into account what other teams lose to graduation, injuries etc.

 

[doggydaddy]

"I have UConn losing to Baylor, Stanford, Texas A & M, Notre Dame(Twice), Duke, and Georgetown; with very tough, losable games to North Carolina, Oklahoma, Rutgers, St. John's, and Syracuse."

I skipped Baylor (they will be GREAT) and ND (we all know they lost Bruiser but have everyone else back). And I skipped GTown, RU and Syracuse. Maybe I'll do this later.

Stanford – Major Losses – Pohlen, Pederson. Combined 54% of their 3point shots taken, 55% of their 3point shots made, 46% of their assists, 34% of their scoring, 33% of the available minutes, 28% of the steals, 30% of the blocks.

Texas A%M – Major losses- Adams, Colson. Combined 44% of their 3point shots taken, 40% of their 3point shots made, 42% of their assists, 39% of their scoring, 28% of the available minutes, 34% of the steals, 31% of the blocks.

Duke - Major losses- J. Thomas, K. Thomas, Christmas. Combined 41% of their 3point shots taken, 43% of their 3point shots made, 41% of their assists, 46% of their scoring, 43% of the available minutes, 41% of the steals, 56% of the blocks.

North Carolina - Major losses- Lucas, Breland, Degraffenreid. Combined 58% of their 3point shots taken, 63% of their 3point shots made, 55% of their assists, 45% of their scoring, 39% of the available minutes, 45% of the steals, 28% of the blocks.

Oklahoma - Major losses- Robinson, Roethlisberger. Combined 20% of their 3point shots taken, 17% of their 3point shots made, 44% of their assists, 33% of their scoring, 30% of the available minutes, 44% of the steals, 19% of the blocks.

UConn – Major losses – Moore, Dixon. Combined 34% of their 3point shots taken, 32% of their 3point shots made, 35% of their assists, 34% of their scoring, 27% of the available minutes, 35% of the steals, 34% of the blocks.

Not only statistically has UConn been impacted less than these teams, but their incoming players are better than the other teams.

 

[UConnCat]

"Not only statistically has UConn been impacted less than these teams, but their incoming players are better than the other teams.

Well done DD and I agree with your bottom line. I was aware of these numbers from looking at the teams' stats, but didn't have them compiled.

 

[doggydaddy]

Well done DD and I agree with your bottom line. I was aware of these numbers from looking at the teams' stats, but didn't have them compiled.

This team has MORE talent than any other team this year. It's all about being mentally tough enough to handle the loss of Moore.

 

[UConnCat]

This team has MORE talent than any other team this year. It's all about being mentally tough enough to handle the loss of Moore.

Yep. That's it. That's where Geno comes in. His practices are all about making his team tough enough mentally to make big plays, make big shots and win big games.

 

[EricSD]

I read stuff like this and it's very difficult to take what you say seriously. But, hey, I'll play along and accept it at face value. So, I'm interested in your analysis of the above list of teams, their talent level, why they will have fewer questions entering the season than UConn and why they will or could beat UConn. We can skip Baylor and Notre Dame as we've discussed those teams at length in other threads and we know those games will be tough. I am interested in your analysis of the other teams.

BTW, I think you forgot Louisville on your list.

totally agree Cat. look at what everyone else lost as well. UCONN actually brings back 4/5ths of their starting lineup. i get that people have a right to their opinion and a right to agree to disagree, but losing between 7-12 regular season games would put this team as one of the worst in Geno's history. in fact, in his first season he lost 15 games, 13 in his second season, and has NEVER lost more than 11 since then. to even imply that we could have our worst year in the past 25 seasons makes it impossible to take him seriously.

even at the face value of the 7 losses would make this the worst team since 1993 with the exception of the 2003-2004 team, which lost 8 TOTAL games including the BET and the NCAA's in the sweet 16. that means the team had 6 regular season losses.

there are some serious questions about this team this year, but no more so than any other year. there are almost always injured players trying to come back and be healthy. almost always newbies who have lots of potential but are unproven. freshmen who showed promise but who's sophomore "jump" is unknown. etc etc.

on paper, this team has more talent than all but one or two other teams out there. but the games aren't played on paper...

 

[VAUConnFan]

That simply isn't going to happen, VAUC. What you are suggesting is that this team performs worse than the 2004-5 team that went 25-8 (the freshman year for Swanier, Thomas and Houston). That team had no experienced Point Guard which was the central problem all season and was weaker in the post with Moore and Crockett than this team with Dolson and Stokes. The five most frequent starters were Strother, Moore, Wolff, Turner and Valley. I will take Doty or Banks, Hartley, Hayes or Mosqueda-Lewis, Faris and Dolson over that lineup any day for a better record. No way this team is near losing 10 or even 5. As to Stef and foul trouble, teams knew that all last year a few teams managed to do it to her at all including the last ND game where the officials completely went nuts.

I hope you are right, Icebear, especially about the post play. We have not seen Stokes play at the college level, and we do not know what kind of preparation she had coming out of Iowa. Moore was underrated, but Dolson might be better. Crockett was a consistent big game player in her first two years. However, she was, quite possibly, the strongest and fastest post ever to put on a Husky uniform.

As talented as UConn will be this year, there are many more talented teams on the horizon.

 

[doggydaddy]

As talented as UConn will be this year, there are many more talented teams on the horizon.

Name them.

 

[VAUConnFan]

The quotes to which I am responding are not appearing in front of me, so this response might not be complete.
1. Any team that plays good, aggressive defense has a chance against UConn, which is why I like Georgetown to beat UConn and for Rutgers, St. John's and Syracuse to be tough games. Georgetown got better in each of last year's three meetings and were scarily close to winning the Sweet 16 game. Baylor is very good defensively and they are a better team. I do not see UConn being able to stop the Ogwumike sisters. Texas A & M will be playing with the confident swagger of defending national champions. Notre Dame has everything going for them this year and were victorious in the last meeting. Duke always had defense, just never enough offense. Defense will prevail this year.
2. I cannot predict the scoring averages of the individuals on this year's team. As a team, though, they will score less than last year's team for no other reason than Maya Moore is not on the floor.
The shooting percentages will take a significant drop for the same reason; They will not get as good a look at the basket as they did when opposing defenses had to account for Maya. Shots, on average, will come later in the shot clock, and there will be fewer transition baskets. My case in point: Diana Taurasi never shot better at UConn than she did in her sophmore year when she was surrounded by a team of future first rounders.
3. Dolson will have to and should improve defensively. Her play is absolutely essential. Georgetown made a point of exploiting her. That cannot happen this season.
4. A wager on 7 losses? Absolutely. Especially a wager about which I would be more than happy to make good. It can be whatever you deem reasonable.

 

[VAUConnFan]

The diverse offense, to which most posters have alluded, appear to be coming from the perimeter in the persons of KML, Tiffany, Caroline, Bria, and Kelly. Does anyone here see anyone individually, or, see this group collectively shooting anywhere close to 50%?

The beauty of having more options is that you don't need everyone to be hot every night. So even if they each shoot 42% for the year, each just needs to have hot nights where it's their turn for things to fall. And if that is the case, it makes it harder for opposing teams to plan the player they need to key on. If there's a wager on the 7-12 losses, I'll take some of that action on the "no way" side of the equation.

You're on. I hope you win.

 

[VAUConnFan]

I read stuff like this and it's very difficult to take what you say seriously. But, hey, I'll play along and accept it at face value. So, I'm interested in your analysis of the above list of teams, their talent level, why they will have fewer questions entering the season than UConn and why they will or could beat UConn. We can skip Baylor and Notre Dame as we've discussed those teams at length in other threads and we know those games will be tough. I am interested in your analysis of the other teams.

BTW, I think you forgot Louisville on your list.[/quote]

I like Louisville, but do not believe they match up well with UConn.

 

[VAUConnFan]

He's also on the Stanford bandwagon. In another thread,I seem to remember him poo-pooing the loss of Pederson and Pohlen.

I do not believe so, but anything is possible; Especially with my memory.

 

[VAUConnFan]

So does anyone really want to bet this UConn team will lose 7 or more games. Please let me in on that.

You're on!
I better make a list before I forget. Not that any of you would allow it.

 

[VAUConnFan]

"I have UConn losing to Baylor, Stanford, Texas A & M, Notre Dame(Twice), Duke, and Georgetown; with very tough, losable games to North Carolina, Oklahoma, Rutgers, St. John's, and Syracuse."

I skipped Baylor (they will be GREAT) and ND (we all know they lost Bruiser but have everyone else back). And I skipped GTown, RU and Syracuse. Maybe I'll do this later.

Stanford – Major Losses – Pohlen, Pederson. Combined 54% of their 3point shots taken, 55% of their 3point shots made, 46% of their assists, 34% of their scoring, 33% of the available minutes, 28% of the steals, 30% of the blocks.

Texas A%M – Major losses- Adams, Colson. Combined 44% of their 3point shots taken, 40% of their 3point shots made, 42% of their assists, 39% of their scoring, 28% of the available minutes, 34% of the steals, 31% of the blocks.

Duke - Major losses- J. Thomas, K. Thomas, Christmas. Combined 41% of their 3point shots taken, 43% of their 3point shots made, 41% of their assists, 46% of their scoring, 43% of the available minutes, 41% of the steals, 56% of the blocks.

North Carolina - Major losses- Lucas, Breland, Degraffenreid. Combined 58% of their 3point shots taken, 63% of their 3point shots made, 55% of their assists, 45% of their scoring, 39% of the available minutes, 45% of the steals, 28% of the blocks.

Oklahoma - Major losses- Robinson, Roethlisberger. Combined 20% of their 3point shots taken, 17% of their 3point shots made, 44% of their assists, 33% of their scoring, 30% of the available minutes, 44% of the steals, 19% of the blocks.

UConn – Major losses – Moore, Dixon. Combined 34% of their 3point shots taken, 32% of their 3point shots made, 35% of their assists, 34% of their scoring, 27% of the available minutes, 35% of the steals, 34% of the blocks.

Not only statistically has UConn been impacted less than these teams, but their incoming players are better than the other teams.

Basketball is a game of matchups. Maya Moore was more than just a statistical presence, she was a transcendent force for which there is no statistical accounting. UConn will have trouble scoring against the better defensive teams.

 

[Icebear]

I do not believe so, but anything is possible; Especially with my memory.

What memory... wait what were we talking about?

 

[UConnCat]

The quotes to which I am responding are not appearing in front of me, so this response might not be complete.
1. Any team that plays good, aggressive defense has a chance against UConn, which is why I like Georgetown to beat UConn and for Rutgers, St. John's and Syracuse to be tough games. Georgetown got better in each of last year's three meetings and were scarily close to winning the Sweet 16 game. Baylor is very good defensively and they are a better team. I do not see UConn being able to stop the Ogwumike sisters. Texas A & M will be playing with the confident swagger of defending national champions. Notre Dame has everything going for them this year and were victorious in the last meeting. Duke always had defense, just never enough offense. Defense will prevail this year.
2. I cannot predict the scoring averages of the individuals on this year's team. As a team, though, they will score less than last year's team for no other reason than Maya Moore is not on the floor.
The shooting percentages will take a significant drop for the same reason; They will not get as good a look at the basket as they did when opposing defenses had to account for Maya. Shots, on average, will come later in the shot clock, and there will be fewer transition baskets. My case in point: Diana Taurasi never shot better at UConn than she did in her sophmore year when she was surrounded by a team of future first rounders.
3. Dolson will have to and should improve defensively. Her play is absolutely essential. Georgetown made a point of exploiting her. That cannot happen this season.
4. A wager on 7 losses? Absolutely. Especially a wager about which I would be more than happy to make good. It can be whatever you deem reasonable.

After seeing "good, aggressive defense" and "Syracuse" in the same sentence, I stopped reading. Syracuse's best defense is the depth perception in the Carrier dome.

 

[VAUConnFan]

totally agree Cat. look at what everyone else lost as well. UCONN actually brings back 4/5ths of their starting lineup. i get that people have a right to their opinion and a right to agree to disagree, but losing between 7-12 regular season games would put this team as one of the worst in Geno's history. in fact, in his first season he lost 15 games, 13 in his second season, and has NEVER lost more than 11 since then. to even imply that we could have our worst year in the past 25 seasons makes it impossible to take him seriously.

even at the face value of the 7 losses would make this the worst team since 1993 with the exception of the 2003-2004 team, which lost 8 TOTAL games including the BET and the NCAA's in the sweet 16. that means the team had 6 regular season losses.

there are some serious questions about this team this year, but no more so than any other year. there are almost always injured players trying to come back and be healthy. almost always newbies who have lots of potential but are unproven. freshmen who showed promise but who's sophomore "jump" is unknown. etc etc.

on paper, this team has more talent than all but one or two other teams out there. but the games aren't played on paper...

Losing 7 games would not make this a bad UConn team. It just means that there are more teams out there capable of beating them. As good as the 2002 team was, their schedule was woefully weak. The only team, on paper, capable of beating them was Tennessee. There were no Top 25 teams in the Big East, and their out of conference schedule was tame, lame, and had no game. This year's team is going to be tested early, often, and continously throughout the year.

 

[VAUConnFan]

Name them.

I phrased that wrong. I did not mean it to say that the teams are more talented, but that there are a greater number of talented teams capable of giving UConn a tough game. As Stanford did last season, one can assume that other teams are already looking ahead in their preparations for UConn.

 

[EricSD]

Losing 7 games would not make this a bad UConn team. It just means that there are more teams out there capable of beating them. As good as the 2002 team was, their schedule was woefully weak. The only team, on paper, capable of beating them was Tennessee. There were no Top 25 teams in the Big East, and their out of conference schedule was tame, lame, and had no game. This year's team is going to be tested early, often, and continously throughout the year.

fair enough. i DO agree that there will be more close games and less blowouts than in recent years. all the teams you mentioned have the chance to be single digit wins for whoever prevails.

but count me among the fans who think that people who predict 7 losses, and as many as 12, feel that people like that are seriously underestimating this team. while they lost a TON in Maya (and Lorin), they bring back a TON of experience in 4 starters, and 8 total players with at least 1 year experience at UCONN. i do agree that they will be relying on their freshmen (not like last year, but relying on them none the less), and questions surrounding caroline and the freshmen are realistic.

i really believe this team is a top 4 team preseason and believe they will be in the final 4. maybe unforseen things will happen this year - team chemistry, other injuries, transfers - who knows. But 7 losses would be the worst UCONN regular season in 18 years. i just don't believe this is the worst team in the past 18 years...

 

[MilfordHusky]

So does anyone really want to bet this UConn team will lose 7 or more games. Please let me in on that.

I've gotta think that the over-under on UConn losses this year is in the 3-4 range.

Think back to each of the past 3 years and how tough the schedule looked. And we lost twice in that span. We turned "Big Monday" into "Big Blowout Monday." Sure Maya was a major factor, but it's Geno's system and there is a lot of talent on that team--as much as anywhere, including Waco, Palo Alto, and South Bend.

 

[doggydaddy]

The quotes to which I am responding are not appearing in front of me, so this response might not be complete.
1. Any team that plays good, aggressive defense has a chance against UConn, which is why I like Georgetown to beat UConn and for Rutgers, St. John's and Syracuse to be tough games. Georgetown got better in each of last year's three meetings and were scarily close to winning the Sweet 16 game.

As you said, it's all about matchups. And last years team struggled with Georgetown. But UConn went only six deep against a pressing team and it took it's toll. This year, GTown will miss McMutt a terrific yet underrated player. And UConn will counter with the one player press breaker. With all the talk about KML, Banks gets a little lost in the shuffle. Her impact will be immediate and Sugar won't be so sweet after Banks gets in her head.

St. Johns? Decent team but no match for the 2011-12 UConn team. Syracuse? Again, you have to be kidding!

Baylor is very good defensively and they are a better team.

I'm still not sold on Baylor. They will be great but not unbeatable. We'll see who is the better soon enough.

I do not see UConn being able to stop the Ogwumike sisters.

Not good enough. Neither the sisters alone or your analysis on this. Again, you don't comment on the losses of Pederson and Pohlen. The impact HAS to be as big as losing Moore, which you think will turn last year's UConn team into some also ran.

Texas A & M will be playing with the confident swagger of defending national champions.

It's not the same team. Just like UConn is not the same team. Adams and Colson are HUGE losses that again you ignore.

Notre Dame has everything going for them this year and were victorious in the last meeting.

What is "everything"? They lost their big body down low and lost the other 3 times to UConn. Now with different players, has it turned enough to allow ND to win not just once but TWICE against UCONN?

Duke always had defense, just never enough offense. Defense will prevail this year.

Did you see in my post who they lost? I only listed the offensive numbers. So an bad offensive team will be worse. But those 3 players were their best defenders.

2. I cannot predict the scoring averages of the individuals on this year's team. As a team, though, they will score less than last year's team for no other reason than Maya Moore is not on the floor.

Terrible logic. Assuming Doty is healthy enough to play 20 minutes a game, they will have 2 players that will come close to matching Moores scoring. Come on, give it a shot. Doty? 8 points a game? KML? 12? Maybe?

The shooting percentages will take a significant drop for the same reason; They will not get as good a look at the basket as they did when opposing defenses had to account for Maya.

You don't think they will have to account to KML? Doty? This team lead the country in assists last year with 4 starters coming back. I think they will get LOTS of good looks.

Shots, on average, will come later in the shot clock, and there will be fewer transition baskets. My case in point: Diana Taurasi never shot better at UConn than she did in her sophmore year when she was surrounded by a team of future first rounders.

This team will RUN RUN and RUN. And shots, on average, will come at any time in the shot clock as it has for many years. They lead the country in assist most years for a reason. And BTW, Hartley, Dolson, KLM, Hayes are all POSSIBLE future first round picks.

3. Dolson will have to and should improve defensively. Her play is absolutely essential. Georgetown made a point of exploiting her. That cannot happen this season.

GTown is a bad matchup for Dolson. But Dolson should be a bad matchup for GTown. As I said earlier, look for the Bank effect in this game.

4. A wager on 7 losses? Absolutely. Especially a wager about which I would be more than happy to make good. It can be whatever you deem reasonable.

How about $100. Loser donates to the charity of the others choice.

If I'm a little harsh here, I apologize. I'm just passionate about the team.

 

[VAUConnFan]

fair enough. i DO agree that there will be more close games and less blowouts than in recent years. all the teams you mentioned have the chance to be single digit wins for whoever prevails.

but count me among the fans who think that people who predict 7 losses, and as many as 12, feel that people like that are seriously underestimating this team. while they lost a TON in Maya (and Lorin), they bring back a TON of experience in 4 starters, and 8 total players with at least 1 year experience at UCONN. i do agree that they will be relying on their freshmen (not like last year, but relying on them none the less), and questions surrounding caroline and the freshmen are realistic.

i really believe this team is a top 4 team preseason and believe they will be in the final 4. maybe unforseen things will happen this year - team chemistry, other injuries, transfers - who knows. But 7 losses would be the worst UCONN regular season in 18 years. i just don't believe this is the worst team in the past 18 years...

Alydar finishing second to Affirmed in all three Triple Crown races did not make him a bad race horse. The Buffalo Bills losing in four consecutive Super Bowls did not make them a bad football team. Stanford and LSU in four and five consecutive Final Fours, respectively, without a championship does not mean they were bad basketball teams. Losing 7 games this season would not make this the worst UConn team in 18 years. Sometimes the competition is just better.
Notre Dame lost 8 games last year. Is anyone in South Bend complaining?

 

[doggydaddy]

Alydar finishing second to Affirmed in all three Triple Crown races did not make him a bad race horse. The Buffalo Bills losing in four consecutive Super Bowls did not make them a bad football team. Stanford and LSU in four and five consecutive Final Fours, respectively, without a championship does not mean they were bad basketball teams. Losing 7 games this season would not make this the worst UConn team in 18 years. Sometimes the competition is just better.

I just don't get it. Not only do you have a serious unestimation of how good UConn is, but you have a serious overinflation of their opponents this year.

 

[VAUConnFan]

I've gotta think that the over-under on UConn losses this year is in the 3-4 range.

Think back to each of the past 3 years and how tough the schedule looked. And we lost twice in that span. We turned "Big Monday" into "Big Blowout Monday." Sure Maya was a major factor, but it's Geno's system and there is a lot of talent on that team--as much as anywhere, including Waco, Palo Alto, and South Bend.

Take Jordan away from the Bulls, Peyton Manning away from the Colts, Brady away from the Patriots. Maya's impact will be similar. No question UConn is loaded with talent. This year, Coach Auriemma is going to have to figure out a way to win big games without "the" most talented. He has not not had to do it often and did quite well in the years between DT and Maya.

 

[VAUConnFan]

I just don't get it. Not only do you have a serious unestimation of how good UConn is, but you have a serious overinflation of their opponents this year.

Our concerns will be addressed during the season.

 

[EricSD]

Alydar finishing second to Affirmed in all three Triple Crown races did not make him a bad race horse. The Buffalo Bills losing in four consecutive Super Bowls did not make them a bad football team. Stanford and LSU in four and five consecutive Final Fours, respectively, without a championship does not mean they were bad basketball teams. Losing 7 games this season would not make this the worst UConn team in 18 years. Sometimes the competition is just better.

well that i just don't buy. Tiff, top 10 recruit in her class. Caroline, top 10. Kelly, top 10. Bria, top 10. Stef shoulda been top 10. KML, #1. so basically you have a team with 6 top 10 recruits on the roster, or at least kids who were in the top 10 in their respective classes.

so no, i wouldn't say the "competition is better". i'd say if you really believe this team will lose 7 for sure, and up to 12 games during the regular season, they would be the worst UCONN team in 18 years, and it's not even close. or debatable for that matter. if this team loses 12 games during the regular season, i guarantee you we will not be in the top 25. and i'm betting the UCONN women have been in the top 25 every single week for at least the past 15 years. so yeah, if you tell me this team will drop from the top 25 and lose potentially 12 games, they would be the worst team in 18 years.

 

[doggydaddy]

Our concerns will be addressed during the season.

I'm not concerned. I'm confident that this team is much better than Syracuse.