Cant win if we depend on Olander...

[businesslawyer]

Crappy analogy, because, other than making errors, A Rod can't impact the game very much other than hitting.
A better analogy would be football, where a backfield runner runs for 90 yards, recovers a key fumble, makes 3 tackles on special teams, blocks a punt, and drops 3 passes, 2 of which are late in the game and obvious.

ARod goes 1 for 5 and he's a bum, no matter what gems he turns in the infield - that's just baseball.

Olander led the team in assists and was 2nd in rebounding. That alone means he had a good game. He was 2 for 7. If he hits 1, that's 3 for 7 and as good as anybody else. 1 more and he's our ace.

For want of those two shots it's dumb to say he had a bad game - sometimes shots don't fall.

There are many more facets to basketball than baseball.

Your case is dismissed.

Olander's floor game was o.k. It wasn't great. It was o.k. It was o.k. enough to have supported him being on the floor if he could make a shot.

And, fwiw, if you're going to point out every time on the boneyard that someone overplays an analogy, you are going to be an extremely busy man!

 

[mauconnfan]

Plus minus is not crap -- it's in some respects the only thing that is important.

Sometimes, teams are better when certain players are on the floor for all types of reasons that you never see. Spacing on offense. Positioning and decisions on helping or not helping on D. Boxing out. The rhythm and decisions on passing. And even the confidence that they inspire in their teammates.

The plus minus stat, over a period of games, is the single most important stat that they keep.

Plus minus may not always be "crap" biz, but it obviously was yesterday........Tylers minutes were much better than Roscoes, counting defense also (not that Tyler plays defense as well as Roscoe but Roscoe brought nothing to the table, he was lost) so right there I can only question it at best??

 

[ford82]

I didn't see the game, but in the highlights I watched James Southerland hit big threes and Olander couldn't move quickly enough to contest. Those were critical plays in the game.

 

[businesslawyer]

Plus minus may not always be "crap" biz, but it obviously was yesterday........Tylers minutes were much better than Roscoes, counting defense also (not that Tyler plays defense as well as Roscoe but Roscoe brought nothing to the table, he was lost) so right there I can only question it at best??

Statistics can only be analyzed in conjunction with means and standard deviations. (Professor Stewart at Trinity would be so proud). Is it possible that, over one game, someone gets lucky or unlucky by how everyone else plays while they're in (or sitting)? yes, of course.

But over the course of a few games, much less a season, it tells a big story.

 

[mauconnfan]

Statistics can only be analyzed in conjunction with means and standard deviations. (Professor Stewart at Trinity would be so proud). Is it possible that, over one game, someone gets lucky or unlucky by how everyone else plays while they're in (or sitting)? yes, of course.

But over the course of a few games, much less a season, it tells a big story.

Again very possible but not the end all. Yesterday was proof for sure.....but more than likely the pattern would tell a good part of the story agreed. Plus how can I disagree with you after throwing "Statistics can only be analyzed in conjunction with means and standard deviations" at me????

 

[Chief00]

I agree with businesslawyer it is really all about plus/minus - play someone 40 minutes with a positive plus minus and you win every time. It is that simple. Alex's spin move was one of the best moves he ever made and then he picks up his 4th foul and he is never seen from again. Rather strange.

As I said, I thought Tyler played pretty good, just need to manage his time much better. We don't have the scoring this year to climb out of holes and come out on top.
We flashed Lamb to the foul line a couple times, I would like to see that more against a zone, especially with the other two guards in and have AD and AO play down low.

If JC follows George's minutes for Tyler; he is going to have the same results that George did when he took Jim's place. I would like to see Giffey get more minutes myself. I also like Roscoe but his head wasn't in the game yesterday; that first rushed 3 point attempt got him out of the gates in a very poor way. Much better for him to start with an offensive rebound put back or defensive stop to get the team going.

 

[Prezidint]

As promised, I rewatched the S game and here are my notes from TO's first stint on the floor. Not sure what the plus/minus was during this stretch, but no way does he deserve any blame other than going 1 for 4.


18:31 Olander comes in – FT made S.
Olander misses short jumper, gets board, misses again.
S misses 3 (not TO’s guy)
TO gets board off of RS bad miss.
TO pass to Lamb, misses J.
TO’s guy misses shot. Good D By TO.
Shabazz turnover early in shot clock.
S with drive past RS, miss in tight shot, Conn ball.
Olander misses jumper.
16:04
Fair for S misses 3 (no defender)
Bazz bombs quick 3 and misses.
S Fair breakaway fouled – TO not in play.
Nothing above here is TO’s fault at all, other than missed shots.
Any +/- is FTs from plays in which he’s not involved.
At 15:39, score is 4 to 3.
Olander assist to Lamb for 3.
Boatright’s guy abuses him for 2.
Long pass to Drummond is a TurnOver.
Napier’s guy misses 3, board TO.
Bazz tough fadeaweay miss.
Breakaway S is blocked Oriakhi.
S called for foul on Lamb.
Lamb misses 3.
Lamb block on S drive, TO board.
TO hits shot. Tied at 8.
Waiters blows by Lamb for easy lay in.
Tyler assist to Lamb.
TO board on missed S shot.
Boat Turnover.
Waiters on breakaway dunk.
Lamb long bomb 3 miss.
Tyler out.

TO did his part over this stretch, no doubt.

 

[Prezidint]

Next TO stint:


10:11 TO returns.
UConn ball
AO rushed shot at buzzer.
Waiters hits 3 over Bazz.
Bazz misses quick shot from FTL.
Waiters misses over Lamb.
Bazz turnover.
Dunk S on breakaway off Bazz TO.
Bazz Horrid 3pt shot misses.
Christmas with dunk – not clear who TO was guarding.
TO hits free throw jumper.
Block UConn, Christmas loses ball.
Foul S.
Giffey terrible TO.
AO fouls his guy – TO’s guy not in play.
S hits free.
OLANDER OUT

No way did TO cause the net loss while he was in. Not sure what's going on, but Bazz had a really bad stretch when TO was in. TO's only mistake was missing a couple of makable shots.

+/-, in this case at least, does not tell the story at all.

 

[willie99]

I didn't see the game, but in the highlights I watched James Southerland hit big threes and Olander couldn't move quickly enough to contest. Those were critical plays in the game.

great observation, and a very simple one at that. Team defense obviously suffers.

one game can be a fluke, two you begin to wonder, but time after time after time after time cannot be about "bad luck"

anyone making that case is "dismissed"

 

[mauconnfan]

What you are forgetting willie is he gets those shots off with Roscoe too, especially the Roscoe who played vs WVU and Cuse....he shoots 31% - people make shots - he did...happens I give him that shot all day instead of dumping it into Joseph or Fair for a 10 footer........and Tyler rebounded too, those are possessions - Roscoe didn't......
The plus or minus thing didn't work Thursday for sure....made zero sense!!

 

[Dougsts]

It sounds like TO is the only reason we have lost any games this season. Maybe its time he just left the team, I mean if he wasn't there the rest of the guys could have gone undefeated this year

 

[Prezidint]

It sounds like TO is the only reason we have lost any games this season. Maybe its time he just left the team, I mean if he wasn't there the rest of the guys could have gone undefeated this year

That's what the +/- says.

 

[Dougsts]

That's what the +/- says.

Well then point proven

 

[mauconnfan]

+ = Team points scored while on court
- = Opponent points allowed while on court
+/- = Team points scored minus Opp points allowed
Off Court = Team points scored/allowed while off court
RR (Roland Rating) = On Court +/- minus Off Court +/-
Clutch = Less than 5 minutes to go in the 2nd half or OT, neither team ahead by more than 5 points

So really you could be the best player on the court for 10 minutes but your teammates missed every shot and didn't guard anyone but you suffer the "plus minus" syndrome??
Much easier to watch the game and see who's playing good and who isn't!!!

By no means am I saying Tyler was good all year and he needs to get better at some things like moving his feet on D and such, but to start a thread after losing Thursday about Tyler is laughable.....he played well for the most part..... I'm done!

 

[Chief00]

Plus/minus analysis to an individual can appear unfair unless you concede it is a team game; and team chemistry is what it is when a guy is in the game - over the course of a season - and to me that is the Big East schedule - so you exclude the cupcake games that Tyler thrived in until the Fairfield disaster. Tyler's plus/minus is painful. I do think his teammates like the guy and the bounce passes please George but given Alex's poor hands - what is the chance he is going to catch those - w/o a fumble.

 

[Chief00]

OK let's see how Tyler's +/- impacts close key games we have lost this season. If we win or lose by a lot; his plus /minus doesn't impact ultimately winning/losing that game.
Cuse (BE) = Lose by 3pts, Tyler -15 pts
Cuse = Lose by 3 pts, Tyler -6 pts
PC = Lose by 2 pts, Tyler -9 pts
TN - Lose by 3 pts, Tyler -5 pts
ND - Lose by 2pts, Tyler -2 pts

Against the best team we have played (Cuse) in the last 2 games we have been outscored by Cuse by 21 pts when Tyler is in the game; when he is out we have outscored Cuse by 15 points. Combined lost points for the 2 games was 6.

 

[Palatine]

OK let's see how Tyler's +/- impacts close key games we have lost this season. If we win or lose by a lot; his plus /minus doesn't impact ultimately winning/losing that game.
Cuse (BE) = Lose by 3pts, Tyler -15 pts
Cuse = Lose by 3 pts, Tyler -6 pts
PC = Lose by 2 pts, Tyler -9 pts
TN - Lose by 3 pts, Tyler -5 pts
ND - Lose by 2pts, Tyler -2 pts

Tyler probably didn't touch the ball on most of those negatives. This is really stupid.

 

[Chief00]

This isn't what Tyler scored vs. his opponent. It is about how his team did vs. the opposing team when he was in the game. It isn't stupid it is about contributing to winning. Facts are silly things to some folks who argue from emotion not logic.

 

[willie99]

so Tyler was playing great on Thursday, yet he's a minus 15

how can we be at our worst when the guy playing great is on the court? how does that possibly happen?

defense gets worse, on offense they leave Tyler wide open and play 5 on 4 because he misses bunnies. As anyone ever seen a big man given less respect 10 feet from the hoop? ever?

 

[Chief00]

Not to pile on too much because I think Tyler is a good kid - but even last year in the 11 post season games the team had a positive +/- only 3 times during Tyler's minutes. It was a trend last year that was overcome by the greatness of Kemba Walker. This year we don't have that safety net. I know George who does the scouting reports, has a certain comfort level for Tyler. Let's face it Roscoe can play great....but watch him on an out of bounds play - he has no clue where he is suppose to be.....so that probably frustrates George. But winning is winning, it is a losing argument arguing with winning!

 

[60'sfan]

so Tyler was playing great on Thursday, yet he's a minus 15

how can we be at our worst when the guy playing great is on the court? how does that possibly happen?

defense gets worse, on offense they leave Tyler wide open and play 5 on 4 because he misses bunnies. As anyone ever seen a big man given less respect 10 feet from the hoop? ever?

I can't respond to all of the other games when Tyler had negative numbers but I do know this. He played as well as anyone did when he was in the game against Syracuse. Basketball is a game of ebbs and flows and there is another team on the floor. If you happen to be on the floor when the other team gets hot, you are going to have a negative number.

You have to remember that there are nine other players and three refs out there too. You can infer all you want but you cannot conclude anything about how good a player is (or how good he played) from statistics with that many variables.

You ask if anyone has been given less respect on his shot? There are at least four other players on Uconn that are worse shooters than Tyler who would have gotten less respect. Syracuse left him open because he wasn't hitting.

 

[mauconnfan]

Yes willie alex is given less respect....your emotion on this one is steering you away from the facts on the Syracuse game....they did not lose the game because of the minutes tyler was on the floor....

 

[Dogbreath2U]

I can't respond to all of the other games when Tyler had negative numbers but I do know this. He played as well as anyone did when he was in the game against Syracuse. Basketball is a game of ebbs and flows and there is another team on the floor. If you happen to be on the floor when the other team gets hot, you are going to have a negative number.

You have to remember that there are nine other players and three refs out there too. You can infer all you want but you cannot conclude anything about how good a player is (or how good he played) from statistics with that many variables.

You ask if anyone has been given less respect on his shot? There are at least four other players on Uconn that are worse shooters than Tyler who would have gotten less respect. Syracuse left him open because he wasn't hitting.

Plus, SU was hanging back to prevent Andre from going off on alley oops, so they risked leaving the middle more open than they might. It's a lot to ask a player who has been getting very few minutes to come in and play a key role. I thought Tyler played well, although it was too bad he was tight and did not shoot well. He rebounded well and he hedges better than AD or AO. All of our guys have pluses and minuses. That is the way it is right now. Some guys will have bigger roles against certain teams. Tyler is so much the better passer than AD, AO, or RS that it is not remotely close. Against a zone, we need him (or Giffey) to play more of a role to attack the zone. Lamb cut into the center several times, but did not get the ball once that I can recall. Part of the problem was that Bazz was the only one who could make the entry pass.

How about this for a concept? We need all our guys and some will be bigger contributors (or be asked to be bigger contributors) against some teams rather than others. Every one of our players has a lot of strengths, but also significant weaknesses....all of them. But by all means, keep throwing the scapegoat of the week (or day) under the bus to act like you have discovered the secret to recapturing last season's magic. Just get rid of _____ (fill in the blank). Just think how good this team could be if our top 10 players could reach the point of maturity and confidence to contribute with their weaknesses reduced. We may not see it, but this bunch could be pretty good next year.

 

[60'sfan]

Plus/minus analysis to an individual can appear unfair unless you concede it is a team game; and team chemistry is what it is when a guy is in the game - over the course of a season - and to me that is the Big East schedule - so you exclude the cupcake games that Tyler thrived in until the Fairfield disaster. Tyler's plus/minus is painful. I do think his teammates like the guy and the bounce passes please George but given Alex's poor hands - what is the chance he is going to catch those - w/o a fumble.

I think some are getting a little carried away by plus/minus. It is at best an indicator of a possible problem. Watching Tyler play against Syracuse and then noticing that he has a negative plus/minus allows us to conclude one of two things. Either we were deceived by our eyes about how well he played or there are weaknesses in the plus/minus stats.

I was a math major at Uconn and later received and MBA. For these courses, I was required to take several stat courses. I also used statistics extensively in my job. I realize that I am not an expert in statistics but my experience tells me that to make conclusions about Tyler Olander based on plus/minus is a real stretch. There are just too many other variables and the sample size is much too small.

 

[willie99]

I really try to be positive, and I appreciate all the kids that come to UConn. I like Tyler, I want him to succeed, and this is the last time I'm defending my position in this thread. The sample size is not really that small, I didn't draw my conclusions on one or two games, and I too thought he was productive on the floor. The plus / minus issue is a problem in nearly every game, almost without an exception. It's there, it's real, we get outscored when he's on the floor. Conversely, AO's numbers are much better than most realize.

I personally believe it's about team defense

 

[businesslawyer]

This isn't what Tyler scored vs. his opponent. It is about how his team did vs. the opposing team when he was in the game. It isn't stupid it is about contributing to winning. Facts are silly things to some folks who argue from emotion not logic.

Not surprisingly, people think they are smarter than they are. No one watching a game on TV notices various things that contribute to a team winning and losing. Frankly, if you watch a lot of basketball, even at the high school level there are many coaches who can't tell you why their teams are better with certain players on the court. But those things to exist. Positioning, confidence of teammates, making other players better, etc., etc.

Yes, it's quite possible you can be having a good game but your teammates aren't playing well, or hitting shots, when you're in and your plus/minus is not reflective of how you play. But if that is happening every game, it shows that you shouldn't be playing as much. And thinking the disparity shown above doesn't exist just because you can't figure out why the team should be so much worse with TO on the court reflects on those who won't accept the analysis, because these numbers speak for themselves.

 

[Prezidint]

But if that is happening every game, it shows that you shouldn't be playing as much.

Not necessarily.
I could make a very good argument that Shabazz needs to adjust to playing with Olander, who had more assists than him and more rebounds than him. I could make an argument that the problem is that guards get too comfortable letting their guys blow by them, knowing that AO and Drummond are back there to bail them out and/or take a foul, and that when TO goes in for one of them, the guards don't adjust.

AND, in any event, it's waaay too simplistic to simply say, "this guy's +/- is bad, so he shouldn't play."

You, as a lawyer, should see the unstated assumption in your argument.

Let me give you a hint first.

You've got a fleet of vehicles for a service company that get 40 MPG. You have one that gets 35. Your assistant tells you that you should replace it. Should you, based on MPG alone? Yes, BUT ONLY IF the replacement gets better than 35 MPG.

So playing Roscoe Smith more, or NG more, seems like the easy answer, but you can never answer this question - how would X have done playing the exact same minutes as Olander? If the answer is "worse," then your argument is completely invalid.

And we don't know what would happen. Fact is, TO gets minutes that AO and AD don't get. He's a second stringer. YES, OF COURSE! The +/- is worse with him in the game. No crap, particularly when he's always replacing one of two critical components.

The statistical measure that you need is a measure of lineup A, B, C, D and TO, and then A, B, C, D and RS/NG. Figure out how the team +/- measures up, and then get back to me.

Til then, Tyler played very well against Syracuse.

 

[Giddyup5]

Can we move on already?

 

[mauconnfan]

I really try to be positive, and I appreciate all the kids that come to UConn. I like Tyler, I want him to succeed, and this is the last time I'm defending my position in this thread. The sample size is not really that small, I didn't draw my conclusions on one or two games, and I too thought he was productive on the floor. The plus / minus issue is a problem in nearly every game, almost without an exception. It's there, it's real, we get outscored when he's on the floor. Conversely, AO's numbers are much better than most realize.

I personally believe it's about team defense

Well then wilie truth be told, the numbers you actually live by are awful. Alex, as good as he should be, is awful on defense just like Tyler whether you believe it or not. His footwork is awful and his help defense is not good at all. C'mon yu can do better than that!

 

[willie99]

Well then wilie truth be told, the numbers you actually live by are awful. Alex, as good as he should be, is awful on defense just like Tyler whether you believe it or not. His footwork is awful and his help defense is not good at all. C'mon yu can do better than that!

BL went into the specs I didn't