Bubble Watch....

[tzznandrew]

I guess Witchita St. is in if we trust Lunardi, I just think there is no real difference between them, the 8 seeds & his " first 4 out"....really just razor thin margins between these teams. If you look at teams like Wichita & St. Joes for example there is next to nothing meaningful in terms of wins they were just good at losing to good teams. Really all of the teams ranked 8/9 down to first 4 out could be in or out...Luardi just guessing.

That's often how it is. Wichita gets benefit of the doubt because of Van Fleet's injury.

I'm much less sold on St. Joe's. Their advanced metrics aren't great and their whole resume hangs on a home win against Dayton and an artificially inflated RPI.

St. Joe's will get George Washington, George Mason, or Saint Louis in their first A-10 game. I think they better win it, particularly if it is George Mason or Saint Louis.

 

[Hi-Low]

That's often how it is. Wichita gets benefit of the doubt because of Van Fleet's injury.

I'm much less sold on St. Joe's. Their advanced metrics aren't great and their whole resume hangs on a home win against Dayton and an artificially inflated RPI.

St. Joe's will get George Washington, George Mason, or Saint Louis in their first A-10 game. I think they better win it, particularly if it is George Mason or Saint Louis.

Yeah let's hope the committee really looks at how the teams performed and not just numbers....UConn was just as good at losing to good teams but we also have multiple good wins & no bad loses. Witchita lost with & without VanVleet just like us with Brimah. If Witchita gets in they should be no better than play-in round.

 

[pepband99]

Connecticut [21-10 (11-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 59] The importance of Friday's American tournament quarterfinal is directly proportional to how close you think Connecticut and Cincinnati are to the bubble. If you think both teams are directly on the cut line -- as Joe Lunardi does -- then the loser might not only be eliminated from the conference tournament but from at-large consideration as well. If you think one or both teams is a few spots away from the cut, then the implications get slightly more complicated. At any rate, we can agree it's a big game between two teams who very much need to win. We can figure the rest out later.

 

[Silk31]

Lunardi has us lower on his curve but let's not pretend that his word is gospel. I think we have a little more wiggle room than being a play in game heading into our 1st round matchup with Cincy.

It will all depend on what the rest of the bubble does but judging by how our resume stacks up against most of the other teams in the same boat we still may have an outside shot at an at large even with a loss if others falter as well

 

[pepband99]

I agree, I think they are in. Palm has them out now, and Lunardi has them as a 7. Big disparity between the two.

If we're close to the cut line, root for seeing a Wichita St bid on the selection show, as a hint to our possible bid. Why? Because we're both banking on better advanced metrics carrying our water, over "traditional" RPI.

 

[Slasher]

ESPN's bubble watch has Providence as a lock. That seems pretty optimistic to me, middling RPI, 7 top 100 wins, but 3 of those 7 are teams 94 and up in the RPI. So really 4 good wins. They also have 3 sub 100 losses. That doesn't feel like a lock to me...

 

[tzznandrew]

ESPN's bubble watch has Providence as a lock. That seems pretty optimistic to me, middling RPI, 7 top 100 wins, but 3 of those 7 are teams 94 and up in the RPI. So really 4 good wins. They also have 3 sub 100 losses. That doesn't feel like a lock to me...

Middling advanced numbers, too.

I'm not sure why they're a "lock" other than they beat Villanova during a snow storm.

I think they better beat Butler Thursday or their palms will be a little sweatier on Sunday.

 

[Leebo]

I have a hard time believing that the committee will leave the #11 kenpom team out of the field (Wichita St) regardless of their RPI issues.

 

[johnhuskies95]

Others may vehemently disagree, but I don't think we're out automatically if we lose to Cincinnati. Similar to what @tzznandrew and others have alluded to, the bubble has a way of shrinking during tournament week, and Cincinnati isn't a bad loss at all. Our biggest problem is our RPI but I'm not sure how much that's even valued to be honest.

 

[ellsworth]

Others may vehemently disagree, but I don't think we're out automatically if we lose to Cincinnati. Similar to what @tzznandrew and others have alluded to, the bubble has a way of shrinking during tournament week, and Cincinnati isn't a bad loss at all. Our biggest problem is our RPI but I'm not sure how much that's even valued to be honest.

I agree , I believe we have a 40% chance of a bid if we lose Friday, we stack up much better vs other bubble teams than most realize.
And every other metric except "RPI" is at large worthy

 

[pepband99]

Others may vehemently disagree, but I don't think we're out automatically if we lose to Cincinnati. Similar to what @tzznandrew and others have alluded to, the bubble has a way of shrinking during tournament week, and Cincinnati isn't a bad loss at all. Our biggest problem is our RPI but I'm not sure how much that's even valued to be honest.

I'm actually the opposite - i think a win Friday doesn't secure a thing. I'm willing to be proven wrong on the committee not screwing the AAC, but i'll also believe it when i see it.

 

[upstater]

The two things that kill me about Cincy getting in:

1. A foul call on a drive with 12 seconds left.
2. Their OOC schedule: L Butler, L Xavier, W VCU, L Iowa State.

 

[upstater]

I'm actually the opposite - i think a win Friday doesn't secure a thing. I'm willing to be proven wrong on the committee not screwing the AAC, but i'll also believe it when i see it.

Seriously, for this to happen, then we are assuming the AAC only gets 1 team in.

The screwjobs of the past years were not that bad. This was not a 1 bid conference when SMU and then Temple were screwed.

 

[CallMeBruce]

I'm actually the opposite - i think a win Friday doesn't secure a thing. I'm willing to be proven wrong on the committee not screwing the AAC, but i'll also believe it when i see it.

No, you won't believe it. Nobody in the AAC got screwed last year.

 

[tzznandrew]

No, you won't believe it. Nobody in the AAC got screwed last year.

Neither was SMU, really. Although that was closer. But you can't lose a sub-200 game in the tournament like they did to Houston that year.

UConn and Louisville were two seed lines too low in 2014. Cincy and Memphis were fine.
SMU was a seed line too low last year, maybe two. Cincy was fine.

We'll see this year, but I think we'll have two teams for sure, and possibly 3. Some people have 4, but for that we'd probably need UConn to beat Cincy, Temple to beat UConn, and Temple and Tulsa to have a good matchup in the final. Even then, all three who didn't win would be close to the cut.

Let's avoid that and just win the damn thing.

 

[pepband99]

Seriously, for this to happen, then we are assuming the AAC only gets 1 team in.

The screwjobs of the past years were not that bad. This was not a 1 bid conference when SMU and then Temple were screwed.

But the screwjob has been in seeding, traditionally. When a conference has essentially all of the teams on the bubble, a little "seeding help" has bigger impact.

 

[deedougie]

No, you won't believe it. Nobody in the AAC got screwed last year.

Agree 100 percent.

 

[Hi-Low]

Can't even consider that a bid is is anything but remote with a loss Friday....that thought must be banished from our minds and hopefully isn't even a consideration of anyone on the actual team. Hopefully the team thinking about winning the AAC tourney....3 games not so daunting.

Gave away so many opportunities to secure our bid, can't see the committee having too much sympathy for us going 0-5 vs Cincy & Temple. Honestly I would have more sympathy for Monmouth....17 road/neutral wins is phenomenal, don't care what league you're in.

Might we get in & deserve to get in with a loss...yes, but not sure who that would be over, would need to be losing ahead & behind us.

 

[UconnPT2007]

Newest bubble watch is up. Also, in the most recent bracketology, we're the very last team in (Lunardi moved Monmouth ahead of us somehow).

 

[August_West]

Newest bubble watch is up. Also, in the most recent bracketology, we're the very last team in (Lunardi moved Monmouth ahead of us somehow).

we will be out before tip off friday. Guaranteed.

 

[Gurleyman]

I think back to Colorado State last year. Didn't get in with an RPI of 29. A committee member had this to say:

"When you think about Colorado State, their RPI was fairly strong," Barnes said during a teleconference after the selection show, "but the other metrics that we used weren't nearly as high in terms of ranking. ... (Those) other things hurt them."

Colorado State was bad in every other computer ranking except RPI. St. Bonaventure has a similar profile this year - 27 in RPI and considered a lock, but around 75 in everything else (Sagarin, BPI, KPom).

You wonder what tools they are using. We'd be in with other computer metrics. And I'd like to think that the 7 or 8 point bump from a Cincy win would clinch it just using RPI too.

But I'll feel a lot better if we win the next two and clean up some of the Cincy-Temple problem on our resume. Annoyed we put ourselves in this spot, but we can still take care of our own business.

 

[zls44]

RPI is the only reason UConn is as low as the last four in right now. The more metrics they look at, the better UConn is.

 

[djct1999]

I am no bracketologist but it seems fairly obvious to me. If you take all the bubble teams and compare them, UConn has as good as wins and no where near the bad losses some of these teams have. Monmouth was a nice story, especially in the beginning of the year, but 3 sub-200 losses should be an automatic disqualifier for an at large. To think their resume compares to UConn is comical.

 

[Gurleyman]

I just don't like our record against NCAA/NCAA Bubble teams. We are hanging our hats right now on a road win at Texas, a split with SMU (when we were trucked the second time), and supplemental metrics that may or may not play a role.

The committee has a reason to leave us out. They have a reason to put us in (no bad losses, big non conference road win). But we can pretty well take care of the reason to leave us out with two wins (and not give them a choice with three).

 

[Inyatkin]

Neither was SMU, really. Although that was closer. But you can't lose a sub-200 game in the tournament like they did to Houston that year.

This is certainly true that SMU did themselves no favors to close out 2014, but it doesn't change that NC State was a terrible choice to make the field that year. They were hardly even on the radar if I remember.