Bubble Watch....

[pepband99]

Pretty fair analysis.

The Cincy, Temple and Houston home losses are just shake-my-head what! boneheadedness. As is the Temple loss on the road.

Four losses that have caused big meltdowns.

Combine this with the Syracuse loss earlier in the season, and UConn has lost 5 games that have left us upset.

If it had won just 2 of these games (2 of 5) and thereby reduced the so-called "luck" factor to a coin flip, then we'd be talking about a 22-7 team. Perhaps a top 25 ranked team.

...or Gonzaga
...or Maryland (somewhat)
...or @ friggin Tulsa

This team has aged us all.

 

[upstater]

...or Gonzaga
...or Maryland (somewhat)
...or @ friggin Tulsa

This team has aged us all.

UConn was really behind in those games and outplayed. If the score was close, it was because Gonzaga and Maryland let their foot off the gas.

I'm really talking about failures to close out games against Cincy, Houston and Temple x2.

I know Syracuse made a run and took a big lead on UConn, but that game really was a bad set-up with UConn playing at midnight the night before.

 

[Jaker]

I would be willing to bet that the NCAA is looking for a way to get back at Uconn for the post game championship speech by Shabazz. So this team had better keep that power out of their hands and win the American tourney.

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

I would be willing to bet that the NCAA is looking for a way to get back at Uconn for the post game championship speech by Shabazz.

Need that George Takei gif.

 

[johnhuskies95]

Damn, our RPI is really 53? That's not encouraging at all.

 

[80shusky]

At this point I'd happily take that 10 seed right now and run with it.

 

[Jaker]

At this point I'd happily take that 10 seed right now and run with it.

agreed

 

[pepband99]

Even Brennan is on the Ville 2014 game train. Sigh.

Connecticut [20-10 (10-7), RPI: 50, SOS: 45] UConn fans are not having much fun these days. The Huskies, after spending most of the season just above the bubble fray, spent the final week of that season losing at home to Houston and taking a ritual 26-point thrashing from SMU. Far as we could tell, UConn Twitter was equal parts self-reassuring and convinced the apocalypse was nigh. On the former front, it's worth noting the Huskies do have a history of recovering from regular-season-ending blowouts: In their final league game of 2013-14, they lost 81-48 at Louisville and, a month later, won the national title. It is extremely hard to imagine that history repeating itself this season, of course, even if this team -- this week aside -- looks much better statistically than its wins and losses reflect. In any case, Shabazz Napier and Co. were never on the bubble. You have to get to the tournament to take it by storm. Whether this team will have that opportunity will likely come down to what happens at the American tourney next week.

 

[upstater]

Not a good day for several teams. Losses today set some teams outside the tourney while throwing others onto the bubble:

Creighton, George Washington, Vanderbilt, Marquette were all damaged by losses today. Outsiders.

Palm seems to think that Syracuse's loss to Florida St. puts them on the bubble, and that Syracuse now has work to do in their tournament.

Not sure if he's disregarding the idea that the NCAA won't hold Boeheim's suspension against them.

 

[tzznandrew]

Not a good day for several teams. Losses today set some teams outside the tourney while throwing others onto the bubble:

Creighton, George Washington, Vanderbilt, Marquette were all damaged by losses today. Outsiders.

Palm seems to think that Syracuse's loss to Florida St. puts them on the bubble, and that Syracuse now has work to do in their tournament.

Not sure if he's disregarding the idea that the NCAA won't hold Boeheim's suspension against them.

If they pretend that the games played without Boeheim didn't happen, they're a tourney team. If they instead remember that this are the same players that lost to St. John's, they're definitely on the bubble.

Will be interesting to see how the committee treats that team.

 

[Matt1010]

Not a good day for several teams. Losses today set some teams outside the tourney while throwing others onto the bubble:

Creighton, George Washington, Vanderbilt, Marquette were all damaged by losses today. Outsiders.

Palm seems to think that Syracuse's loss to Florida St. puts them on the bubble, and that Syracuse now has work to do in their tournament.

Not sure if he's disregarding the idea that the NCAA won't hold Boeheim's suspension against them.

They sure won't have an overly convincing case if they lose in round one of the ACC tournament to finish the season losing 5/6.

 

[tjc1888]

Need Wichita st to pull this out in OT

 

[6xChamps]

Is Wichita State definitely a tourney team if they lose this? They stink. If UConn makes the tourney id love to play them in the first round.

 

[Hi-Low]

Is Wichita State definitely a tourney team if they lose this? They stink. If UConn makes the tourney id love to play them in the first round.

Witicha St. loses...bad new for Bubble teams, MVC will steal a bid if you believe Lunardi that Witcita St. a lock...why I don't know, lousy resume in my opinion....only have 1 meaningful win (Utah)...no other top 50 wins....a total joke if they get an at-large.

 

[6xChamps]

Witicha St. loses...bad new for Bubble teams, MVC will steal a bid if you believe Lunardi that Witcita St. a lock...why I don't know, lousy resume in my opinion....only have 1 meaningful win (Utah)...no other top 50 wins....a total joke,

1-4 vs Rpi top 50, 4-7 vs Rpi top 100. Not very good.

 

[Hi-Low]

1-4 vs Rpi top 50, 4-7 vs Rpi top 100. Not very good.

Nope but saved by Rpi & Bpi...lost close games w/o VanVleet...this is one team where the metrics lie, beat 1 team that matters all year.

 

[johnhuskies95]

USF up by 3 on Tulsa at the break. Any idea on what we want here @OkaForPrez @tzznandrew @Jerry1714? On one hand a Tulsa loss would take them out of the RPI top 50 which would hurt us, but they are far more beatable than Cincinnati is in my opinion in the 4/5 game, which a loss and a Cincinnati win tomorrow would lead to. And that game is a must win for us regardless.

 

[tcf15]

USF up by 3 on Tulsa at the break. Any idea on what we want here @OkaForPrez @tzznandrew @Jerry1714? On one hand a Tulsa loss would take them out of the RPI top 50 which would hurt us, but they are far more beatable than Cincinnati is in my opinion in the 4/5 game, which a loss and a Cincinnati win tomorrow would lead to. And that game is a must win for us regardless.

Could be wrong, but I think a Tulsa loss and Cinci win puts Tulsa at the 4 seed and Cinci at the 3.

 

[tjc1888]

St joes lost to Duquesne
Alabama lost to georgia

 

[johnhuskies95]

Could be wrong, but I think a Tulsa loss and Cinci win puts Tulsa at the 4 seed and Cinci at the 3.

Yeah, sorry, I should've been clearer, that's what I was referring to.

 

[Hi-Low]

Lots of losses by teams just above, on & below the Bubble...Cuse, Pitt, Creighton, St. Joe's, Witchita, Oh St, GW, Bama, Vandy, LSU, USC

Bubble winners so far today - S Car, Butler, Prov

Still to play today...Fla, Col, Oregon St, St. Bon, Tulsa, VCU, Mich

There really is very little separating the 8 seeds from the 11 seeds, all just opinion on who will be in & out. Not saying we just need to beat UCF and we're in, think we need 1 AAC tourney win , may need 2....really hard to tell....would be nice just to win the AAC tourney though.

 

[mauconnfan]

Bubble watch

 

[tzznandrew]

Nope but saved by Rpi & Bpi...lost close games w/o VanVleet...this is one team where the metrics lie, beat 1 team that matters all year.

I mean, Northern Iowa also beat UNC. So they have 1 bad loss...but also only 4 Top 50 wins.

Wichita State has great advanced metrics. I'd think they're probably in despite this.

 

[Jerry1714]

I mean, Northern Iowa also beat UNC. So they have 1 bad loss...but also only 4 Top 50 wins.

Wichita State has great advanced metrics. I'd think they're probably in despite this.

I agree, I think they are in. Palm has them out now, and Lunardi has them as a 7. Big disparity between the two.

 

[Hi-Low]

I agree, I think they are in. Palm has them out now, and Lunardi has them as a 7. Big disparity between the two.

I guess Witchita St. is in if we trust Lunardi, I just think there is no real difference between them, the 8 seeds & his " first 4 out"....really just razor thin margins between these teams. If you look at teams like Wichita & St. Joes for example there is next to nothing meaningful in terms of wins they were just good at losing to good teams. Really all of the teams ranked 8/9 down to first 4 out could be in or out...Luardi just guessing.

The teams that are able to get a quality win or 2 in their conference tourneys could really move up the board quickly & conversely losing your first conference tourney game could be deadly. It may be a "soft" bubble but that also keeps otherwise undeserving teams alive....conference tourneys more than ever will create a lot of movement in & out.