Bubble Watch.... | Page 7 | The Boneyard

Bubble Watch....

Status
Not open for further replies.
ESPN's bubble watch has Providence as a lock. That seems pretty optimistic to me, middling RPI, 7 top 100 wins, but 3 of those 7 are teams 94 and up in the RPI. So really 4 good wins. They also have 3 sub 100 losses. That doesn't feel like a lock to me...
 
Slasher said:
ESPN's bubble watch has Providence as a lock. That seems pretty optimistic to me, middling RPI, 7 top 100 wins, but 3 of those 7 are teams 94 and up in the RPI. So really 4 good wins. They also have 3 sub 100 losses. That doesn't feel like a lock to me...
Expand ...
Middling advanced numbers, too.

I'm not sure why they're a "lock" other than they beat Villanova during a snow storm.

I think they better beat Butler Thursday or their palms will be a little sweatier on Sunday.
 
I have a hard time believing that the committee will leave the #11 kenpom team out of the field (Wichita St) regardless of their RPI issues.
 
Others may vehemently disagree, but I don't think we're out automatically if we lose to Cincinnati. Similar to what @tzznandrew and others have alluded to, the bubble has a way of shrinking during tournament week, and Cincinnati isn't a bad loss at all. Our biggest problem is our RPI but I'm not sure how much that's even valued to be honest.
 
johnhuskies95 said:
Others may vehemently disagree, but I don't think we're out automatically if we lose to Cincinnati. Similar to what @tzznandrew and others have alluded to, the bubble has a way of shrinking during tournament week, and Cincinnati isn't a bad loss at all. Our biggest problem is our RPI but I'm not sure how much that's even valued to be honest.
Expand ...
I agree , I believe we have a 40% chance of a bid if we lose Friday, we stack up much better vs other bubble teams than most realize.
And every other metric except "RPI" is at large worthy
 
johnhuskies95 said:
Others may vehemently disagree, but I don't think we're out automatically if we lose to Cincinnati. Similar to what @tzznandrew and others have alluded to, the bubble has a way of shrinking during tournament week, and Cincinnati isn't a bad loss at all. Our biggest problem is our RPI but I'm not sure how much that's even valued to be honest.
Expand ...

I'm actually the opposite - i think a win Friday doesn't secure a thing. I'm willing to be proven wrong on the committee not screwing the AAC, but i'll also believe it when i see it.
 
.-.
The two things that kill me about Cincy getting in:

1. A foul call on a drive with 12 seconds left.
2. Their OOC schedule: L Butler, L Xavier, W VCU, L Iowa State.
 
pepband99 said:
I'm actually the opposite - i think a win Friday doesn't secure a thing. I'm willing to be proven wrong on the committee not screwing the AAC, but i'll also believe it when i see it.
Expand ...

Seriously, for this to happen, then we are assuming the AAC only gets 1 team in.

The screwjobs of the past years were not that bad. This was not a 1 bid conference when SMU and then Temple were screwed.
 
CallMeBruce said:
No, you won't believe it. Nobody in the AAC got screwed last year.
Expand ...
Neither was SMU, really. Although that was closer. But you can't lose a sub-200 game in the tournament like they did to Houston that year.

UConn and Louisville were two seed lines too low in 2014. Cincy and Memphis were fine.
SMU was a seed line too low last year, maybe two. Cincy was fine.

We'll see this year, but I think we'll have two teams for sure, and possibly 3. Some people have 4, but for that we'd probably need UConn to beat Cincy, Temple to beat UConn, and Temple and Tulsa to have a good matchup in the final. Even then, all three who didn't win would be close to the cut.

Let's avoid that and just win the damn thing.
 
upstater said:
Seriously, for this to happen, then we are assuming the AAC only gets 1 team in.

The screwjobs of the past years were not that bad. This was not a 1 bid conference when SMU and then Temple were screwed.
Expand ...

But the screwjob has been in seeding, traditionally. When a conference has essentially all of the teams on the bubble, a little "seeding help" has bigger impact.
 
.-.
Can't even consider that a bid is is anything but remote with a loss Friday....that thought must be banished from our minds and hopefully isn't even a consideration of anyone on the actual team. Hopefully the team thinking about winning the AAC tourney....3 games not so daunting.

Gave away so many opportunities to secure our bid, can't see the committee having too much sympathy for us going 0-5 vs Cincy & Temple. Honestly I would have more sympathy for Monmouth....17 road/neutral wins is phenomenal, don't care what league you're in.

Might we get in & deserve to get in with a loss...yes, but not sure who that would be over, would need to be losing ahead & behind us.
 
Last edited:
Newest bubble watch is up. Also, in the most recent bracketology, we're the very last team in (Lunardi moved Monmouth ahead of us somehow).
 
UconnPT2007 said:
Newest bubble watch is up. Also, in the most recent bracketology, we're the very last team in (Lunardi moved Monmouth ahead of us somehow).
Expand ...

we will be out before tip off friday. Guaranteed.
 
I think back to Colorado State last year. Didn't get in with an RPI of 29. A committee member had this to say:

"When you think about Colorado State, their RPI was fairly strong," Barnes said during a teleconference after the selection show, "but the other metrics that we used weren't nearly as high in terms of ranking. ... (Those) other things hurt them."

Colorado State was bad in every other computer ranking except RPI. St. Bonaventure has a similar profile this year - 27 in RPI and considered a lock, but around 75 in everything else (Sagarin, BPI, KPom).

You wonder what tools they are using. We'd be in with other computer metrics. And I'd like to think that the 7 or 8 point bump from a Cincy win would clinch it just using RPI too.

But I'll feel a lot better if we win the next two and clean up some of the Cincy-Temple problem on our resume. Annoyed we put ourselves in this spot, but we can still take care of our own business.
 
RPI is the only reason UConn is as low as the last four in right now. The more metrics they look at, the better UConn is.
 
I am no bracketologist but it seems fairly obvious to me. If you take all the bubble teams and compare them, UConn has as good as wins and no where near the bad losses some of these teams have. Monmouth was a nice story, especially in the beginning of the year, but 3 sub-200 losses should be an automatic disqualifier for an at large. To think their resume compares to UConn is comical.
 
.-.
I just don't like our record against NCAA/NCAA Bubble teams. We are hanging our hats right now on a road win at Texas, a split with SMU (when we were trucked the second time), and supplemental metrics that may or may not play a role.

The committee has a reason to leave us out. They have a reason to put us in (no bad losses, big non conference road win). But we can pretty well take care of the reason to leave us out with two wins (and not give them a choice with three).
 
tzznandrew said:
Neither was SMU, really. Although that was closer. But you can't lose a sub-200 game in the tournament like they did to Houston that year.
Expand ...
This is certainly true that SMU did themselves no favors to close out 2014, but it doesn't change that NC State was a terrible choice to make the field that year. They were hardly even on the radar if I remember.
 
BlueDogs said:
The fact we are even having this conversation is disgusting. Could have put a bid away 4 times over beating Temple, Houston, Cincy or SMU.
Expand ...
Completely agree. With the resources behind the UConn men's basketball program and playing in the AAC there is no way they should be in this situation and there's no way they should be missing the NCAA Tournament 2 years in a row.
 
HooperScooper said:
Completely agree. With the resources behind the UConn men's basketball program and playing in the AAC there is no way they should be in this situation and there's no way they should be missing the NCAA Tournament 2 years in a row.
Expand ...
This is dumb.

We're still recovering from the sanctions that absolutely destroyed us on the recruiting trail. Between the 2012 & 2013 classes we snagged exactly two 4-star players, one of which went on to have a career marred by injuries. We were also hurt re: our 2014 class, since we couldn't go out on the trail as many hours as our competitors, and ended up getting just one difference-maker. That's picked up in 2015 and bigtime in 2016, but... that's the point of sanctions. They're meant to punish the school.

With better players will come better results. We're getting there.
 
Matrim55 said:
This is dumb.

We're still recovering from the sanctions that absolutely destroyed us on the recruiting trail. Between the 2012 & 2013 classes we snagged exactly two 4-star players, one of which went on to have a career marred by injuries. We were also hurt re: our 2014 class, since we couldn't go out on the trail as many hours as our competitors, and ended up getting just one difference-maker. That's picked up in 2015 and bigtime in 2016, but... that's the point of sanctions. They're meant to punish the school.

With better players will come better results. We're getting there.
Expand ...

We still should've had better results the last 2 years. Both years we've had more highly recruited players than any of the other AAC schools, yet we've gone 21-15 in conference. That's not good enough.
 
.-.
Matrim55 said:
This is dumb.

We're still recovering from the sanctions that absolutely destroyed us on the recruiting trail. Between the 2012 & 2013 classes we snagged exactly two 4-star players, one of which went on to have a career marred by injuries. We were also hurt re: our 2014 class, since we couldn't go out on the trail as many hours as our competitors, and ended up getting just one difference-maker. That's picked up in 2015 and bigtime in 2016, but... that's the point of sanctions. They're meant to punish the school.

With better players will come better results. We're getting there.
Expand ...
Last year was fine. This year it's not. Do you think UConn should have gone 11-7 in the AAC? They were better than all those teams and yet they lost 7 of those games. Win at least 1-2 more of those games and they're in a much better position. No way they should have gone 11-7 in this conference.

I'm hoping Ollie is thinking the same thing and is not using the sanctions as an excuse. I realize we need to be realistic, but the reality is UConn's talent is better than 11-7 in this conference. You want to argue they should have been 11-7 in the AAC?
 
Last edited:
johnhuskies95 said:
We still should've had better results the last 2 years. Both years we've had more highly recruited players than any of the other AAC schools, yet we've gone 21-15 in conference. That's not good enough.
Expand ...
Naw. Here's the 2012-through-2015 class rankings, courtesy of UConnJim's research:

2012: 1) Houston, 2) UConn, 3) Memphis, 4) Temple, 5) USF
2013: 1) Memphis, 2) SMU, 3) Cincinnati, 4) USF, 5) UConn
2014: 1) UConn, 2) Cincinnati, 3) Memphis, 4) UCF, 5) USF
2015: 1) Memphis, 2) SMU, 3) UConn, 4) USF, 5) Temple

As pointed out in that thread: Everybody has taken advantage of transfers as well. For some it's worked, for others it hasn't.

HooperScooper said:
Last year was fine. This year it's not. Do you think UConn should have gone 11-7 in the AAC? They were better than all those teams and yet they lost 7 of those games. Win at least 1-2 more of those games and they're in a much better position. No way they should have gone 11-7 in this conference.

I'm hoping Ollie is thinking the same thing and is not using the sanctions as an excuse. I realize we need to be realistic, but the reality is UConn's talent is better than 11-7 in this conference. You want to argue they should have been 11-7 in the AAC?
Expand ...
I think we had trouble closing games out down the stretch, which is a feature (not a bug) of teams with inconsistent PG play. Missing out on recruits like Perkins killed us, though even landing a big-time PG recruit is no guarantee of success (look at Kaleb Joseph at 'Cuse).

Of course we could have done better, and I'd hoped we would do better. But I disagree with the original premise that "there is no way they should be in this situation and there's no way they should be missing the NCAA Tournament 2 years in a row."

We were supposed to miss at least that long and take a half-decade to dig out (look at Indiana).

Also, I'm sorry I called your post dumb. There was no need for me to go ad hominem against your opinion.
 
Matrim55 said:
Naw. Here's the 2012-through-2015 class rankings, courtesy of UConnJim's research:

2012: 1) Houston, 2) UConn, 3) Memphis, 4) Temple, 5) USF
2013: 1) Memphis, 2) SMU, 3) Cincinnati, 4) USF, 5) UConn
2014: 1) UConn, 2) Cincinnati, 3) Memphis, 4) UCF, 5) USF
2015: 1) Memphis, 2) SMU, 3) UConn, 4) USF, 5) Temple

As pointed out in that thread: Everybody has taken advantage of transfers as well. For some it's worked, for others it hasn't.


I think we had trouble closing games out down the stretch, which is a feature (not a bug) of teams with inconsistent PG play. Missing out on recruits like Perkins killed us, though even landing a big-time PG recruit is no guarantee of success (look at Kaleb Joseph at 'Cuse).

Of course we could have done better, and I'd hoped we would do better. But I disagree with the original premise that "there is no way they should be in this situation and there's no way they should be missing the NCAA Tournament 2 years in a row."

We were supposed to miss at least that long and take a half-decade to dig out (look at Indiana).

Also, I'm sorry I called your post dumb. There was no need for me to go ad hominem against your opinion.
Expand ...

If you're honestly comparing our situation with Indiana's then I really don't know what to say. Indiana returned two walk-ons from their 07-08 team for the 08-09 season. That's it. They were in a much deeper hole. There's really no comparison.

And those recruiting rankings are misleading. Our average star rating has been the highest in the conference for 3 out of those 4 years, which is more indicative of the quality of a recruiting class in basketball than in a sport like football.
 
Matrim55 said:
Naw. Here's the 2012-through-2015 class rankings, courtesy of UConnJim's research:

2012: 1) Houston, 2) UConn, 3) Memphis, 4) Temple, 5) USF
2013: 1) Memphis, 2) SMU, 3) Cincinnati, 4) USF, 5) UConn
2014: 1) UConn, 2) Cincinnati, 3) Memphis, 4) UCF, 5) USF
2015: 1) Memphis, 2) SMU, 3) UConn, 4) USF, 5) Temple

As pointed out in that thread: Everybody has taken advantage of transfers as well. For some it's worked, for others it hasn't.


I think we had trouble closing games out down the stretch, which is a feature (not a bug) of teams with inconsistent PG play. Missing out on recruits like Perkins killed us, though even landing a big-time PG recruit is no guarantee of success (look at Kaleb Joseph at 'Cuse).

Of course we could have done better, and I'd hoped we would do better. But I disagree with the original premise that "there is no way they should be in this situation and there's no way they should be missing the NCAA Tournament 2 years in a row."

We were supposed to miss at least that long and take a half-decade to dig out (look at Indiana).

Also, I'm sorry I called your post dumb. There was no need for me to go ad hominem against your opinion.
Expand ...
No problem. We disagree. I think they should have played better this year. I just don't want to hear any excuses. Bottom line is there was ample talent on the roster and they didn't get it done. You can make the argument that the sanctions set them back from being an NCAA Championship contender. Making the NCAA Tournament, especially in this weak year, is a much lower bar. One UConn should not be coming up short of 2 years in a row.

If they don't make the NCAA Tournament I don't want to hear any excuses coming out of Storrs. I want to hear things like we heard from Calhoun and the players after the 2006-2007 season when they didn't even make the NIT. Anyone remember how mad Calhoun was after that season? He vowed that it would never happen again. Here is a quote from Calhoun after that season. You can almost envision the fire coming out of his eyes when he said it. That's the kind of thing I want to hear from Ollie.

"I'm not sitting back anyplace," Calhoun said. "We will have a better team that shows up on the floor next year. It's not a group of selfish kids that don't care. They just don't understand. They will understand over the next six to seven months."
 
Inyatkin said:
My favorite thing is when people prove their fanhood based on what they will and will not accept from their team.
Expand ...
Thanks. But that wasn't my intention.

So what's your opinion of the season?
 
.-.
Status
Not open for further replies.

Forum statistics

Threads
168,160
Messages
4,555,217
Members
10,438
Latest member
UConnheart


Top Bottom