Bracketology

[navery12]

OK but what is the big advantage of a 4? No matter we are a 4,5, or 6 we gotta beat a quality team in the second game and then hopefully get lucky that a 1 or 2 gets knocked off. A 3 seed makes a difference so let’s just win the BE tourney.

There's a few advantages, as a 5 or 6 seed you're facing an at large P5 team round 1 versus a mid major AQ as a 3 or a 4 seed. As a 3 or 4 we also have a chance at being in the East regional, as a 5 or 6 I don't think we'd be placed in the East to avoid a de facto road game for a higher seed in round 2

 

[ThabeetDown]

There have been 54 11 vs 6 upsets, 51 12 vs 5 upsets, 31 13 vs 4 upsets and 22 14 vs 3 upsets. The second game isnt what I'm worried about; I would much rather be a 3 or 4 facing a LBSU, Princeton, New Mexico State etc than a 5 or 6 facing an underseeded Rutgers, Davidson or San Fran.

This. The difference in quality and talent of an 11/12 and a 13/14 is stark. Want no part of an 11 or 12 seed.

 

[ToolzieFan]

This. The difference in quality and talent of an 11/12 and a 13/14 is stark. Want no part of an 11 or 12 seed.

I agree 100% that playing a 13 or 14 would be better than an 11 or 12. I also think this team will take care of whoever we get in the first round, and that an 11 or 12 seed would want no part of us.

 

[Tenspro2002]

OK but what is the big advantage of a 4? No matter we are a 4,5, or 6 we gotta beat a quality team in the second game and then hopefully get lucky that a 1 or 2 gets knocked off. A 3 seed makes a difference so let’s just win the BE tourney.

The big advantage of a #4 over a #5 is the quality of opponent in the first round.

4 seed: 79%
5 seed: 64%

History of Records By Seed in the NCAA Tournament

Odds, records, and history by seeding for March Madness tournament to help find upsets in this year's bracket.

www.betfirm.com

After that, I agree, it's a wash. But as a #4, you're facing a decent but not great automatic qualifier from a so-so conference. As a #5, you're getting a dangerous mid-major, an underachieving but talented P5, or a hot play-in game winner.

 

[husky99]

4 is way better then 5

 

[shizzle787]

My personal bracketology for 3/6/22:
AQs bold
First four italics
1. Baylor, Auburn, Arizona, Gonzaga
2. Kentucky, Kansas, Purdue, Tennessee
3. Villanova, UCLA, St. Mary's, Texas Tech
4. Providence, Illinois, Wisconsin, Duke
5. UConn, San Diego State, Houston, Texas
6. LSU, Arkansas, Ohio State, Iowa
7. Seton Hall, TCU, Marquette, Iowa State
8. USC, Colorado State, Murray State, Alabama
9. Michigan State, Creighton, Davidson, Loyola
10. Notre Dame, Wake Forest, Xavier, Wyoming
11. Memphis, VCU, Michigan, Boise State
12. San Francisco, North Texas, Indiana, UNC, BYU, Iona
13. SDSU, NMSU, Toledo, Chattanooga
14. Vermont, Towson, Princeton, LBSU
15. Colgate, Cleveland State, Montana State, Jacksonville
16. Norfolk State, Longwood, Nicholls State, Bryant, App State, Alcorn State

First seven out:
Oregon
Colorado
Florida
VaTech
SMU
Miami
Rutgers

Multi-bid leagues:
B1G: 8
Big East: 7
SEC: 6
Big 12: 6
ACC: 4
MW: 4
WCC: 4
Pac-12: 3
A-10: 2
AAC: 2

 

[storrsroars]

Isn't Providence the BE AQ?

 

[shizzle787]

Isn't Providence the BE AQ?

Villanova is the highest-ranked BE team in my rankings so I gave them the AQ (similar to SDSU for the MW).

 

[shizzle787]

Loyola wins so the field expands by one as there will be no bid stealer in the Missouri Valley.

 

[awfuldan]

Men's Bracketology: Old guys rule -- Kansas becomes new No. 1 overall seed

Not only are the Jayhawks returning national POY candidate Hunter Dickinson for his COVID year, but Kansas also boasts fifth-year guard Dajuan Harris Jr. along with veteran portal additions Rylan Griffen, AJ Storr, Riley Kugel and Zeke Mayo.

www.espn.com

Lunardi now has us as a 5 seed vs the Mean Green of North Texas (KenPom 48, beat Purdue in the first round last year). Playing in Buffalo. Arkansas would be the next round and Gonzaga is the 1 seed.

Would be really nice to win some BET games and get out of the 5-seed.

 

[YellowMamba]

Joe Lunardi always hating on UCONN...I never liked him...

 

[UConNick]

Arkansas scares me with how hot they’ve been. Their almost comeback at Tennessee on Saturday was about the most impressive you could look in a second half and still lose; Notae is Kemba/Bazz-esque. And you know Muss would have his team ready. I’d bet they get to at least the SEC final and make their way to the 3 line, perhaps at the expense of a fading TTU or even PC should they have an unimpressive BET.

 

[awfuldan]

Arkansas scares me with how hot they’ve been. Their almost comeback at Tennessee on Saturday was about the most impressive you could look in a second half and still lose; Notae is Kemba/Bazz-esque. And you know Muss would have his team ready. I’d bet they get to at least the SEC final and make their way to the 3 line, perhaps at the expense of a fading TTU or even PC should they have an unimpressive BET.

Yeah, I agree. Not a team I want to face in the second round, and I would expect them to have a good shot at moving up to a 3-seed. One of the hottest teams in the country.

 

[Ts5034]

The last time we fell on the 4 line was 2008, and the last time we were a 5 was 2003. We made the Sweet 16 in 2003, and lost in the first round in 2008, mainly because AJ tore his ACL in that game vs San Diego. The NCAA Tournament is about luck and matchups, and I think the two years I just mentioned proved that. In 2003, If we were playing Texas anywhere outside the state of Texas, we win that game. If AJ price doesnt get hurt, that 2008 team was going to make a run to at least the Sweet 16.

 

[awfuldan]

Bracket Watch: Richmond’s theft is the (bad) luck of the Irish

Tennesse and Iowa make late moves in our final bracket projection of 2021-2022.

theathletic.com

Exceptionally similar projection from the Athletic. Huskies as a 5 in Buffalo vs. Chattanooga in Round 1, with Arkansas and Gonzaga likely next up.

 

[PNolanFan]

My personal bracketology for 3/6/22:
AQs bold
First four italics
1. Baylor, Auburn, Arizona, Gonzaga
2. Kentucky, Kansas, Purdue, Tennessee
3. Villanova, UCLA, St. Mary's, Texas Tech
4. Providence, Illinois, Wisconsin, Duke
5. UConn, San Diego State, Houston, Texas
6. LSU, Arkansas, Ohio State, Iowa
7. Seton Hall, TCU, Marquette, Iowa State
8. USC, Colorado State, Murray State, Alabama
9. Michigan State, Creighton, Davidson, Loyola
10. Notre Dame, Wake Forest, Xavier, Wyoming
11. Memphis, VCU, Michigan, Boise State
12. San Francisco, North Texas, Indiana, UNC, BYU, Iona
13. SDSU, NMSU, Toledo, Chattanooga
14. Vermont, Towson, Princeton, LBSU
15. Colgate, Cleveland State, Montana State, Jacksonville
16. Norfolk State, Longwood, Nicholls State, Bryant, App State, Alcorn State

First seven out:
Oregon
Colorado
Florida
VaTech
SMU
Miami
Rutgers

Multi-bid leagues:
B1G: 8
Big East: 7
SEC: 6
Big 12: 6
ACC: 4
MW: 4
WCC: 4
Pac-12: 3
A-10: 2
AAC: 2

I love the energy of putting Duke at a 4

 

[Jbirdp5]

Yeah, I agree. Not a team I want to face in the second round, and I would expect them to have a good shot at moving up to a 3-seed. One of the hottest teams in the country.

100% they are one of the teams I’d like to avoid. Tough, athletic, skilled.

 

[shizzle787]

I love the energy of putting Duke at a 4

I wasn’t even completely hating; they have a weak resume. They only played three high-level OOC opponents and the ACC is very weak. They are going to be punished for having a Q3 loss (only one other top 15 team has one) and only being 5-3 in Q2.

 

[jibsey]

My personal bracketology for 3/6/22:
AQs bold
First four italics
1. Baylor, Auburn, Arizona, Gonzaga
2. Kentucky, Kansas, Purdue, Tennessee
3. Villanova, UCLA, St. Mary's, Texas Tech
4. Providence, Illinois, Wisconsin, Duke
5. UConn, San Diego State, Houston, Texas
6. LSU, Arkansas, Ohio State, Iowa
7. Seton Hall, TCU, Marquette, Iowa State
8. USC, Colorado State, Murray State, Alabama
9. Michigan State, Creighton, Davidson, Loyola
10. Notre Dame, Wake Forest, Xavier, Wyoming
11. Memphis, VCU, Michigan, Boise State
12. San Francisco, North Texas, Indiana, UNC, BYU, Iona
13. SDSU, NMSU, Toledo, Chattanooga
14. Vermont, Towson, Princeton, LBSU
15. Colgate, Cleveland State, Montana State, Jacksonville
16. Norfolk State, Longwood, Nicholls State, Bryant, App State, Alcorn State

First seven out:
Oregon
Colorado
Florida
VaTech
SMU
Miami
Rutgers

Multi-bid leagues:
B1G: 8
Big East: 7
SEC: 6
Big 12: 6
ACC: 4
MW: 4
WCC: 4
Pac-12: 3
A-10: 2
AAC: 2

Duke a 4 and Nova a 3? Duke will be 2 more likely.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Duke a 4 and Nova a 3? Duke will be 2 more likely.

I'm not sure about that. Duke may end up as a three (especially if they win the ACC tournament) but at the moment they are clearly a four.

I personally would love for us to be a five in the same region where Duke is a four. K has one more good cry in him and I want us to make it happen.

 

[jibsey]

I'm not sure about that. Duke may end up as a three (especially if they win the ACC tournament) but at the moment they are clearly a four.

I personally would love for us to be a five in the same region where Duke is a four. K has one more good cry in him and I want us to make it happen.

Of course.

 

[navery12]

Teams to keep an eye on this week in terms of quadrants

Seton Hall - 32 NET, top 30 makes our home win Q1 but hopefully doesn't happen since that's our first matchup

PC 26 / Xavier 36 / Marquette 38 are all unlikely to flip over the 30 line and change anything

VCU 51 - top 50 would be a Q1 win

St John's 72 - top 75 keeps our wins as Q1/Q2 instead of Q2/Q3

West Virginia 79 - top 75 would make it a Q1 loss

Butler 129 - top 135 keeps the road win as Q2

 

[HitDog]

Teams to keep an eye on this week in terms of quadrants

Seton Hall - 32 NET, top 30 makes our home win Q1 but hopefully doesn't happen since that's our first matchup

Maybe it is. Georgetown is due!

 

[auror]

We'd like Seton Hall to beat Georgetown by like 100.

Would be very nice for VCU to win a couple games.

St. John's probably needs to win 1 for us.

Butler just can't lose by 15+.

 

[buddy]

We'd like Seton Hall to beat Georgetown by like 100.

Would be very nice for VCU to win a couple games.

St. John's probably needs to win 1 for us.

Butler just can't lose by 15+.

The problem I see is that UConn-Seton Hall is a toss up, and based on how well Seton Hall is playing they likely have an advantage, especially is Hawkins is out for UConn. UConn Georgetown goes to UConn.