Bracketology - week of Mar 2 thru 15 | Page 3 | The Boneyard

Bracketology - week of Mar 2 thru 15

So this morning BYU is the first team out. Both Nebraska and Richmond remain as the last four in.

I'm wondering if Charlie cream is using the Huskers and spiders is placeholders because neither in my view should be dancing.

However Delaney Gibbs and the Cougars definitely should be dancing.

Edit

So this whole Richmond and Nebraska placement has really had my head spinning.

Based on what I saw yesterday does the loser of the Mountain West championship have a case to be made? Or even San diego? Are either one of those two options more deserving than Richmond?

What about the WCC? I'm headed over there for the semis and if chalk holds what about the loser of a Gonzaga LMU championship game? What is Scott gets his Beavers into the championship game and losesI

know I'd love to see Loree Payne dance. If the Broncos upset Gonzaga do they have a case regardless of you outcome of the championship game?

I'm getting a little Rodney Dangerfield about the WCC and Mountain West

I'm also wondering if anyone has any insight about the placement of ASU by Creme. Are they actually going to College Park? The matchup against Virginia would be interesting
 
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www.espn.com

Women's Champ Week takeaways: No. 1 seeds and NCAA hosts set

A week before Selection Sunday, which teams should be worried (Tennessee) or encouraged (Notre Dame)? And what's the state of the bubble?
www.espn.com www.espn.com

What were the biggest things we learned on Championship Sunday? Which teams might have benefited most from Champ Week so far? Which résumés took a hit? Let's take a deeper look at Champ Week, how it will shape the bracket and what can be expected on Selection Sunday.​
​
Should UConn or UCLA be the overall No. 1? The Bruins' metrics -- 18 Quad 1 wins, the top wins above bubble number, the best strength of schedule -- suggest they should be first. However, the Huskies have sat in that spot all season and remain the nation's lone unbeaten team. More significantly, the NCAA selection committee put UConn at No. 1 overall in both of its top-16 reveals this season. At the time of each of those announcements -- Feb. 14 and March 1 -- UCLA also held an advantage in those metrics -- and the committee still went with the Huskies.​
​
Nothing has changed on that front. Essentially, the committee has already spoken here, and UConn has been the consistent choice. The only element that has changed: The Bruins are now the Big Ten regular-season and tournament champions, with a Big Ten tournament finals performance that was near perfect, beating Iowa by 51 points. If the committee decides to change its mind and flip UConn and UCLA, that will have to be the rationale, not the numbers.​
 
Lady Vols holding steady at that #8 Seed. Meanwhile, North Dakota State are on the outside looking through the window.
 
www.espn.com

Women's Bracketology: Latest intel on top 4 seeds, 16 hosts

As Selection Sunday awaits, here's the state of the top of the bracket.
www.espn.com

No update to top 16, so no new grid. No changes to the groups of four below:

LAST FOUR BYES (Last teams to skip the First Four round) - Iowa State, USC, Colorado, Clemson
LAST FOUR IN (Last teams to make the field overall) - Virginia, Arizona St, Nebraska, Richmond
FIRST FOUR OUT (Teams ranked 69-72 that missed the cut) - BYU, Utah, N Dakota St, Texas A&M
NEXT FOUR OUT (Teams ranked 73-76 that missed the cut) - Mississippi St, Stanford, Kansas St, Indiana
 
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BRS24 said:
www.espn.com

Women's Bracketology: Latest intel on top 4 seeds, 16 hosts

As Selection Sunday awaits, here's the state of the top of the bracket.
www.espn.com

No update to top 16, so no new grid. No changes to the groups of four below:

LAST FOUR BYES (Last teams to skip the First Four round) - Iowa State, USC, Colorado, Clemson
LAST FOUR IN (Last teams to make the field overall) - Virginia, Arizona St, Nebraska, Richmond
FIRST FOUR OUT (Teams ranked 69-72 that missed the cut) - BYU, Utah, N Dakota St, Texas A&M
NEXT FOUR OUT (Teams ranked 73-76 that missed the cut) - Mississippi St, Stanford, Kansas St, Indiana
Expand ...
And here comes my reckless at flea that the committee considers the full body of work at BYU as well as the sour taste left on the court in the final games by the Conhuskers and the Spiders.

Delaney Gibb and Nate's have demonstrated that they're danceworthy.

Well Charlie Creme seems confident as you will face off with Virginia and College Park I think the fans would really rather see ASU face off against BYU in fort Worth.

I know I know it violates all types of conventions and guidelines. But I know Molly Miller would like another crack at them
 
Committee can consider whatever they want, but when it comes down to 2 teams that are close, I think that if head-to-head is on the table, it should be the #1 consideration.

Doesn't mean I'd leave ASU out, but BYU > ASU.
 
typhaon said:
Committee can consider whatever they want, but when it comes down to 2 teams that are close, I think that if head-to-head is on the table, it should be the #1 consideration.

Doesn't mean I'd leave ASU out, but BYU > ASU.
Expand ...
I definitely see that line of reasoning. Thank God Richmond's on the bottom and Nebraska barely above them. So in my view BYU should push one of those out, in spite of the view that the big 12 is a pathetic conference whose coaches tend to schedule Lame I think Nebraska prior to soiling themselves in the tournament in the first round against Indiana had lost six out of seven. So they were staggering.

Richmond spider loss in their tournament was equally embarrassing to the Husker tournament debacle.
 

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For those of you who like to pursue the whole bracket, here's last night's late update:

www.espn.com

Women's Bracketology: Latest intel on top 4 seeds, 16 hosts

As Selection Sunday awaits, here's the state of the top of the bracket.
www.espn.com

With Selection Sunday just days away and all the top teams in the country finished playing and waiting to find out their NCAA tournament fate, movement in the bracket will be minimal. The No. 1 seeds -- UConn, UCLA, Texas, South Carolina -- are set. The only debate might be their order. The top-16 to determine which teams will host first- and second-round games in the NCAA tournament also won’t have any movement. West Virginia’s Big 12 tournament title looks to have given the Mountaineers that coveted final spot. Even the bubble has held steady -- though it is still awaiting Ivy Madness this weekend. If Princeton does not win the bd, the Ivy likely gets a second team in the field, bumping a current bubble team. (Richmond and Nebraska should not rest easy.) Three more teams punched their tickets on Tuesday with Green Bay (Horizon), Gonzaga (WCC) and Colorado State (MWC) all earning bids.​

No change to the four groups:

LAST FOUR BYES (Last teams to skip the First Four round) - Iowa State, USC, Colorado, Clemson
LAST FOUR IN (Last teams to make the field overall) - Virginia, Arizona St, Nebraska, Richmond
FIRST FOUR OUT (Teams ranked 69-72 that missed the cut) - BYU, Utah, N Dakota St, Texas A&M
NEXT FOUR OUT (Teams ranked 73-76 that missed the cut) - Mississippi St, Stanford, Kansas St, Indiana
 
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Can't wait for Sunday. So I asked AI what the possibility was of a ASU versus Nebraska play in game. Hey I indicated around 11% with a possibility of the game is in LA.

But there's a 15% chance the game would be in Durham.

So the overwhelming prediction is they will not play.

So now I have to reconsider my advocacy for BYU. Lol
 
2026 WCBB NCAAT Bracketology Teams by Overall Seeding:
  • Number in () is the NET on the day on/before the Bracketology date.
  • AQ next to Conference Affiliation means “Automatic Qualifier” for a Conference.
  • AQ next to team name means that team has “punched its ticket” as an actual Auto Qualifier.
IMG_0285.jpeg
 
NCAA Dashboard (3/10/2026) appended to ESPN Bracketology (3/10/2026) to provide insight on:
  • (a) the Hypothesis Testing continuum of the 37 At-Large (Type &1 = 2) Qualifiers;
  • (b) the 68-team Bracketed S-Curve (Overall Seed (OSeed)).
The NCAA procedures for (a), S-Curve and (b) are here.

&1 Type = 1 (Automatic Qualifier) and 2 (At-large Qualifier). “AQ” next to team name means that team has “punched its ticket” as an actual Auto Qualifier.

IMG_0280.jpeg


Top 20 Overall Seed | Remaining Schedule
By Conference Bids: Conference Standings | Conference Tournaments

IMG_0284.jpeg
 
This is great analysis. You might want to trademark "Threshold Rejections" and become a pundit. 😁

You make a nice case for Tenn, U$C, Nebraska and my fave bubble/threshold team this year ASU.

Will be interesting to compare yours with Creme and the committee. I would guess y'all bat 67 of 68 and hope ASU is not the miss.
 
packwrap said:
This is great analysis. You might want to trademark "Threshold Rejections" and become a pundit. 😁

You make a nice case for Tenn, U$C, Nebraska and my fave bubble/threshold team this year ASU.

Will be interesting to compare yours with Creme and the committee. I would guess y'all bat 67 of 68 and hope ASU is not the miss.
Expand ...
The Bracketology above is not mine.
  • They are Creme’s March 10th Bracketology.
  • In the first post, I flattened the disparate Bracketologies (Creme’s, HerHoopStats’ Megan Gauer and the Selection Committee’s Top 16 reveals) for comparison.
  • The “Threshold Rejections” are Creme’s (Overall Seed 69-76); I’ve added 4 more based on NET.
I’ve appended the published NCAA Dashboard (some of the factors the Selection Committee is supposed to consider) to give context to the decisions the Committee has to make (37 At-Large, S-Curve and Bracketed S-Curve).
 
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NycUcWbbFan said:
NCAA Dashboard (3/10/2026) appended to ESPN Bracketology (3/10/2026) to provide insight on:
  • (a) the Hypothesis Testing continuum of the 37 At-Large (Type &1 = 2) Qualifiers;
  • (b) the 68-team Bracketed S-Curve (Overall Seed (OSeed)).
The NCAA procedures for (a), S-Curve and (b) are here.

&1 Type = 1 (Automatic Qualifier) and 2 (At-large Qualifier). “AQ” next to team name means that team has “punched its ticket” as an actual Auto Qualifier.

View attachment 118066

Top 20 Overall Seed | Remaining Schedule
By Conference Bids: Conference Standings | Conference Tournaments

View attachment 118067
Expand ...
Thanks for bringing this together. As an ASU fan it is nerve-racking.

At one point I'd seen bracketology that showed ASU playing Nebraska. After reviewing the material you've assembled it appears that's not going to happen. Also it appears my anxiety and tension level should rise significantly. Based upon what I'm seeing I think if I were on the committee I would give the nod to BYU by virtue of their head to head against that ASU

I know that there is considerable energy and thought invested in the statistical analysis it certainly seems to me that recency before the tournament as well as performance within the conference tournament should also have some weight. I say that because both advantage ASU over Richmond, Nebraska and BYU.

I will say this. Speculation before the reveal is a real positive for fans. Over the past 3 years I've not had a horse in the race.
 
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