Bracketology - week of Mar 2 thru 15

[Vowelguy]

Maybe they fall all the way to a 10 seed?

I knew they were keeping sec 2 seeds away from sec 1 seeds; but they do it even in an 8/9 scenario? Seriously?

Yes even more so. STRONG preference to avoid conference matchups in the first two rounds.

 

[Zonepress]

Charlie with an update. No change to the top 16.

Women's Bracketology: Championship Sunday brings clarity to No. 1 seeds, top 16

Texas locked up the No. 3 overall seed, Duke moved to a No. 2 and West Virginia should host NCAA tournament games.

www.espn.com

This time of year, more teams play themselves out of the NCAA tournament than in. Mississippi State, Stanford and Texas A&M did exactly that Wednesday. And Nebraska nearly did. The Bulldogs needed a win to slow an end-of-season slide. The Cardinal and Aggies, as Next Four Out teams, had ground to make up and needed their Champ Week appearances to last a few days. Instead, Mississippi State, Stanford and Texas A&M each lost and had their NCAA tournament hopes dashed. Nebraska is hanging on despite blowing a 17-point lead to Indiana. Had any of the others won, the Huskers might be out, too. But they hang on for now as the Last Team In. The biggest beneficiaries to all these early exits: Richmond and the Big 12 bubble teams, Colorado, Utah and Arizona State. The Sun Devils were the one bubble team to play on Wednesday and win.​

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View attachment 117794

From last Friday's post:
12 - Big Ten
10 - SEC
9 - ACC
7 - Big 12
2 - Big East
2 - Atlantic 10
2 - Ivy

splitting up the FCC teams is going to win some very unfair matchups in Point
lsu example is clearly not the fourth number 2 seed
kentucky will most likely be the fourth number one
And is clearly a better team than Minnesota another potential
4 seed
The only fair way to do this rank of teams one through 64 and go from there

 

[JAMBall]

As a UConn fan, I don’t want Tennessee in the 8/9 game in our region. It is still a rivalry; and I don’t want to give them a chance to salvage their season at our expense.

They are a dumpster fire. Put them in Storrs.

 

[BRS24]

Women's Bracketology: Championship Sunday brings clarity to No. 1 seeds, top 16

Texas locked up the No. 3 overall seed, Duke moved to a No. 2 and West Virginia should host NCAA tournament games.

www.espn.com

If Wednesday was bubble team Armageddon, Thursday was bubble team nirvana. One day after Mississippi State, Stanford and Texas A&M played their way out of consideration for at-large bids, BYU and Arizona State made the case that they belong. The Cougars picked up their fifth straight win, coming back to beat rival Utah, and moved to the first team out of the field. (In the process they also ended the Utes’ chances.) The Sun Devils -- who sit just behind BYU on the cusp of the field -- led Iowa State from start to finish and finally earned their first Quadrant 1 win. Two days ago, BYU and Arizona State were among the Next Four Out, proving Champ Week can still deliver hope: With an upset of TCU on Friday in the Big 12 quarterfinals, BYU will make the journey back to a bid complete.​

MSU out and Kentucky back in the top 16.

LAST FOUR BYES - Last teams to skip the First Four round - Iowa State, USC, Clemson, VA
LAST FOUR IN - Last teams to make the field overall - Princeton, CO, Richmond, Nebraska
FIRST FOUR OUT - Teams ranked 69-72 that missed the cut - BYU, ASU, SDSU, Utah
NEXT FOUR OUT - Teams ranked 73-76 that missed the cut - Miss St, Stanford, TAMU, Kansas

Bracketology | NCAA Women's Basketball 2026 | Her Hoop Stats

2026 NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament Bracketology from Her Hoop Stats

herhoopstats.com

Michigan State falls out of the top-16 after following up its regular season ending loss to Ohio State with going one-and-done against Illinois in the Big Ten tournament. North Carolina slides into a hosting spot, but Kentucky is also knocking on the door. On the bubble, a second Big 12 tournament victory for Arizona State, this time over Iowa State, moves the Sun Devils into the field. Utah falls out of the field after a loss to BYU.​

 

[azfan]

Women's Bracketology: Championship Sunday brings clarity to No. 1 seeds, top 16

Texas locked up the No. 3 overall seed, Duke moved to a No. 2 and West Virginia should host NCAA tournament games.

www.espn.com

If Wednesday was bubble team Armageddon, Thursday was bubble team nirvana. One day after Mississippi State, Stanford and Texas A&M played their way out of consideration for at-large bids, BYU and Arizona State made the case that they belong. The Cougars picked up their fifth straight win, coming back to beat rival Utah, and moved to the first team out of the field. (In the process they also ended the Utes’ chances.) The Sun Devils -- who sit just behind BYU on the cusp of the field -- led Iowa State from start to finish and finally earned their first Quadrant 1 win. Two days ago, BYU and Arizona State were among the Next Four Out, proving Champ Week can still deliver hope: With an upset of TCU on Friday in the Big 12 quarterfinals, BYU will make the journey back to a bid complete.​

MSU out and Kentucky back in the top 16.

View attachment 117821

LAST FOUR BYES - Last teams to skip the First Four round - Iowa State, USC, Clemson, VA
LAST FOUR IN - Last teams to make the field overall - Princeton, CO, Richmond, Nebraska
FIRST FOUR OUT - Teams ranked 69-72 that missed the cut - BYU, ASU, SDSU, Utah
NEXT FOUR OUT - Teams ranked 73-76 that missed the cut - Miss St, Stanford, TAMU, Kansas

Bracketology | NCAA Women's Basketball 2026 | Her Hoop Stats

2026 NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament Bracketology from Her Hoop Stats

herhoopstats.com

Michigan State falls out of the top-16 after following up its regular season ending loss to Ohio State with going one-and-done against Illinois in the Big Ten tournament. North Carolina slides into a hosting spot, but Kentucky is also knocking on the door. On the bubble, a second Big 12 tournament victory for Arizona State, this time over Iowa State, moves the Sun Devils into the field. Utah falls out of the field after a loss to BYU​

I'm a huge Amy Williams and Nebraska Cornhusker fan. I flew to Lincoln this season and watched USC take the Huskers apart.

The operative term here is take apart. Nebraska looked inept during that mid season game at home against USC.

Nebraska loses to Indiana in the first round. It would be a tremendous insult, it would be idiotic for this Big ten team to dance over the two big 12 teams that most assuredly deserve to dance

If the committee puts Nebraska in ahead of BYU or ASU they lose any credibility they ever had and it would be malpractice. It would completely delegitimize the entire tournament. Any committee member who signs off on such a idiotic decision should be exiled to Turkey to officiate third level women's amateur games.

As I said earlier due to their sweep ASU BYU with Delaney Gibbs should be dancing.

After the huge win yesterday I was so confident that ASU would dance that I slept like a baby and in fact had dreams of cutting down the nets.

The Richmond Spiders are a fine team. Do they belong in the tournament above a surging Big 12 team?

Let's talk credibility. If Tennessee can lose their way into the big dance with seven straight losses and ASU can win their way out of the dance you have to wonder what kind of selection committee is cursing fans

 

[BRS24]

Women's Bracketology: Championship Sunday brings clarity to No. 1 seeds, top 16

Texas locked up the No. 3 overall seed, Duke moved to a No. 2 and West Virginia should host NCAA tournament games.

www.espn.com

Entering Friday’s SEC quarterfinals, Vanderbilt still had a shot at a No. 1 seed. Then Ole Miss dominated the Commodores in the first half en route to an 89-78 win. The upset spoiled what would have been a Texas-Vanderbilt matchup in the semifinals, a game that would have also decided the final No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. The Commodores will have to settle for a No. 2 seed, while Ole Miss raised its profile to a No. 5. LSU still has a chance to sneak into the final No. 1 slot if it wins the SEC tournament. But first, the Tigers must beat South Carolina on Saturday. Win or lose, the Gamecocks are safe as the third No. 1 seed, so it’s LSU or Texas for the fourth 1-seed. Unless, of course, Ole Miss keeps pulling surprises and wins the SEC tournament, which could open the door for Iowa or Michigan to reach the top line if either can win the Big Ten tournament.​

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Ohio State up and Oklahoma down a seed. My poor hubby's Navy is matched up with LSU in round 1. A bunch of teams changed regions.

 

[BRS24]

As a UConn fan, I don’t want Tennessee in the 8/9 game in our region. It is still a rivalry; and I don’t want to give them a chance to salvage their season at our expense.

If they are 8/9, they are either in Storrs or Westwood.

As of this morning, 8 Tenn plays 9 Iowa State in UCLA's pod.

 

[Stagnant]

Charlie’s new bracketology would be perfect for UConn. Avoided 8/9 Tennessee. Vandy instead of LSU as the two seed. Texas and Iowa as the other 1 and 2 on their side of the bracket. South Carolina, LSU, Michigan, and UCLA all on the other side of the bracket.

Perfect. Simply perfect.

 

[azfan]

Charlie’s new bracketology would be perfect for UConn. Avoided 8/9 Tennessee. Vandy instead of LSU as the two seed. Texas and Iowa as the other 1 and 2 on their side of the bracket. South Carolina, LSU, Michigan, and UCLA all on the other side of the bracket.

Perfect. Simply perfect.

But not so perfect for ASU.

Creme and one other bracketologist have Nebraska dancing and ASU at home as well as BYU at home. Frankly I can't see that.

Love this bracketology which has ASU dancing.

Molly Miller made the point that no 24 win power 4 has ever been left out of the dance.

Bracketology | NCAA Women's Basketball 2026 | Her Hoop Stats

2026 NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament Bracketology from Her Hoop Stats

herhoopstats.com

This "expert" has Nebraska in and as ASU out

https://www.theixsports.com/the-ix-basketball-newsroom/ncaa-basketball/bracketology/womens-basketball-2025-26-bracketology-opportunities-diminishing/

 

[Stagnant]

Arizona state missing for Nebraska would be disappointing.

There is a stat that no power 5 team with 23 or 24 wins has ever missed the ncaa tournament. And Arizona state qualifies. Always trust the stats.

 

[Zonepress]

Charlie’s new bracketology would be perfect for UConn. Avoided 8/9 Tennessee. Vandy instead of LSU as the two seed. Texas and Iowa as the other 1 and 2 on their side of the bracket. South Carolina, LSU, Michigan, and UCLA all on the other side of the bracket.

Perfect. Simply perfect.

for sure!!

 

[BRS24]

Eye tests - for mid majors and non-favored programs everywhere ...

 

[typhaon]

I think Richmond is probably done. A10 isn't getting 3 teams and I can't see anyone in good faith voting for Richmond over George Mason (who probably needs the AQ, themselves).

Columbia loses final regular season game to Harvard. If there was any doubt, that probably also eliminates them from any AL talk.

 

[nwhoopfan]

I'm just sayin'--LSU was 1-4 against South Carolina, Vandy and Texas (plus 0-1 against Kentucky). Shouldn't they have won more games against the best teams if they were really all that good? And 2 of those losses were at home.

 

[BRS24]

Today's updates from Charlie & Megan -

Women's Bracketology: Championship Sunday brings clarity to No. 1 seeds, top 16

Texas locked up the No. 3 overall seed, Duke moved to a No. 2 and West Virginia should host NCAA tournament games.

www.espn.com

With Texas’ win over Ole Miss and LSU falling to South Carolina in the SEC semifinals, the No. 1 seeds are set, as the Longhorns nail down the final spot. Now they battle the Gamecocks on Sunday for the SEC title and the No. 3 overall seed. With a win, Texas would also take the season series from South Carolina and earn placement in the Fort Worth region. The Longhorns wouldn’t have to leave the state of Texas until the Final Four. Meanwhile, at the other end of the bracket, things shifted yet again on the bubble. A loss to Harvard cost Columbia what had been designated as the Ivy League’s automatic qualifier. Princeton, which is in as an at-large already, takes over the league’s AQ, opening another at-large spot. Richmond hangs on despite a dismal performance in the A-10 semifinals. Arizona State is also back in after a second look at the résumé. On this year’s bubble, there are more teams with razor-thin differences than we have seen in a long time.​

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12 - Big Ten
10 - SEC
9 - ACC
8 - Big 12
2 - Big East
2 - Atlantic 10

Bracketology | NCAA Women's Basketball 2026 | Her Hoop Stats

2026 NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament Bracketology from Her Hoop Stats

herhoopstats.com

With South Carolina and Texas set to meet for a third time this season in the SEC Championship game, the No. 1 seeds are locked up. Meanwhile, after Michigan's loss to Iowa in the Big Ten Semifinals, the Wolverines slide to a No. 3 seed. Louisville slides into the final No. 2 seed spot for now, but ultimately the winner of tomorrow's ACC Championship meeting between the Cardinals and Duke will take it. The Atlantic 10 semifinals were also impactful today, with Richmond losing to Rhode Island. The Spiders stay in the field for now, as the last team in. Their fate on Selection Sunday will be decided by the results of the Summit League and Ivy League tournaments. Congratulations to Western Illinois on claiming the first automatic bid with the OVC trophy today. Eight tickets to the Big Dance are on the line tomorrow!​

 

[southie]

I'm just sayin'--LSU was 1-4 against South Carolina, Vandy and Texas (plus 0-1 against Kentucky). Shouldn't they have won more games against the best teams if they were really all that good? And 2 of those losses were at home.

I guess it's all about perspective. Yes, they lost those games. By 2 points at home to Kentucky; by 4 points at Vandy; by 7 points at home to South Carolina; by 13 points at Texas (game was close until a late Texas run); and by 6 points yesterday to South Carolina.

Despite that, I see a lot of UConn posters making comments that they don't want to see LSU in their quadrant of the bracket, and would prefer Vanderbilt (a team which beat LSU).

A lot of coaches say that in post-season, you win with guard play. LSU has four good to great guards.

 

[azfan]

I think Richmond is probably done. A10 isn't getting 3 teams and I can't see anyone in good faith voting for Richmond over George Mason (who probably needs the AQ, themselves).

Columbia loses final regular season game to Harvard. If there was any doubt, that probably also eliminates them from any AL talk.

You and I think that but as of this morning Charlie doesn't with Richmond he last team in and what I consider to be a deeply deserving BYU out.

And don't get me started about the place holder or Nebraska Huskers....

Good news is it appears today if she was safely on and now I can start worrying about the cost of travel to Ann Arbor.. or wherever else the Sun Devils make it sent

 

[Stagnant]

I looked at Crème’s “First Four Out” and “Next Four Out” entries. And I think they make a great argument against expansion. Something the NCAA seems determined to do.

Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Stanford, Indiana, and Kansas State are some of the teams listed. And there is just no universe where they deserve to compete in the ncaa tournament. If you are going to let teams like that in… why even have a regular season. They all lost way too many games to be considered. And frankly, so did Nebraska.

 

[azfan]

you are going to let teams like that in… why even have a regular season. They all lost way too many games to be considered. And frankly, so did Nebraska.

Absolutely. I love the Huskers but there's no way in any universe that they should be dancing. Creme still has them according to one of our BYers as a placeholder. And the Huskers don't deserve to be a placeholder and I still wonder why Creme has Richmond in.

By every criteria BYU deserves to dance.

 

[nwhoopfan]

I guess it's all about perspective. Yes, they lost those games. By 2 points at home to Kentucky; by 4 points at Vandy; by 7 points at home to South Carolina; by 13 points at Texas (game was close until a late Texas run); and by 6 points yesterday to South Carolina.

Despite that, I see a lot of UConn posters making comments that they don't want to see LSU in their quadrant of the bracket, and would prefer Vanderbilt (a team which beat LSU).

A lot of coaches say that in post-season, you win with guard play. LSU has four good to great guards.

I can understand that. And Mulkey is certainly a coach who has shown she can win in March. But her M.O. is pretty much win the Title, or flame out in the Sweet 16 or Elite 8. Pretty sure she only has 1 Final Four that didn't end in a Championship. Can't see this team cutting the nets down, so past precedence tells me this LSU squad isn't one to be too worried about in a Regional Final.

 

[BRS24]

So the count of folks that think UCLA should overtake UConn for overall #1 seed is now 3 - Antonelli, McGraw, and T Goodman. Good grief.

 

[UConnCat]

So the count of folks that think UCLA should overtake UConn for overall #1 seed is now 3 - Antonelli, McGraw, and T Goodman. Good grief.

If, without seeing your post, you told me 3 WCBB talking heads said that, I would have picked those 3.

 

[BRS24]

HHS with an update. Charlie will probably do it after midnight, so I'll post it tomorrow.

Bracketology | NCAA Women's Basketball 2026 | Her Hoop Stats

2026 NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament Bracketology from Her Hoop Stats

herhoopstats.com

We have an order switch up on the No. 1 seed line after Texas takes down South Carolina in the SEC championship. The Longhorns are now the third overall seed and get to stay close to home for regionals. Duke also replaces Louisville on the No. 2 seed line with the ACC trophy. Elsewhere, West Virginia moves into the top-16 with the Big 12 title and South Dakota State winning the Summit League keeps the bubble safe for now. UCLA, Rhode Island, High Point and Samford also punched tickets to the big dance. Four more spots are on the line tomorrow.​

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[BRS24]

Changed up the title of this thread, as not al lot is going to change with the top 16 at this point (dooooomed).

Women's Bracketology: Championship Sunday brings clarity to No. 1 seeds, top 16

Texas locked up the No. 3 overall seed, Duke moved to a No. 2 and West Virginia should host NCAA tournament games.

www.espn.com

Championship Sunday brought some Bracketology shake-up. Texas’ dominant victory over South Carolina pushed the Longhorns past the Gamecocks for the No. 3 overall seed. That means Texas shifts to the closer Fort Worth Regional, and South Carolina will have to play its potential Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games in Sacramento. TCU’s loss to West Virginia in the Big 12 final opened a door for a change on the No. 2 seed line. Duke walked through it with a second straight ACC tournament title and the final No. 2 seed. The Mountaineers, meanwhile, moved into the top 16 and should host first- and second-round NCAA tournament games after winning their first Big 12 tournament championship since 2017.​

WVU in and Kentucky out of the top 16. Duke and TCU switch 2 and 3 seeds.

LAST FOUR BYES - Last teams to skip the First Four round - Iowa State, USC, Colorado, Clemson
LAST FOUR IN - Last teams to make the field overall - Virginia, Arizona St, Nebraska, Richmond
FIRST FOUR OUT - Teams ranked 69-72 that missed the cut - BYU, Utah, N Dakota St, Texas A&M
NEXT FOUR OUT - Teams ranked 73-76 that missed the cut - Mississippi St, Stanford, Kansas St, Indiana

 

[GamecockFam]

Despite yesterday's loss, I prefer those matchups in the four region (Iowa, TCU, Minnesota) over what Texas is handed in the three (Duke, Ohio State, Oklahoma). I think we can similarly exploit Iowa as UCLA did and we match up well with TCU. I don't know enough about Minnesota to have an opinion on that matchup, so I would have to get myself educated on that one if it came to be.

The only negative is that we would play UConn in the final four, so that would be a brutal and exhausting game. The only consolation is that UConn hasn't played any of the other title contenders (UCLA, Texas, LSU IMO) so we could possibly expose a weakness that only a title contender could.