Bracketology - week of Mar 2 thru 15 | The Boneyard

Bracketology - week of Mar 2 thru 15

BRS24

BRS24

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CC shifts three #4 seeds early this am.
www.espn.com

Women's Bracketology: One final projection before the bracket is revealed

All 31 auto-bids are spoken for. Will UConn or UCLA be No. 1 overall? And where will the hosts be seeded?
www.espn.com
Sunday started with the NCAA tournament selection committee revealing its latest look at the top 16 seeds. A full slate of regular-season finales has already slightly altered that reveal, but the two biggest takeaways are intact: Texas is the fourth No. 1 seed, and seven Big Ten teams, including four as No. 4 seeds, are in the top 16. That helps identify what to look for as Champ Week opens this week. The SEC will provide the answer on the final 1-seed as Texas tries to hold off Vanderbilt and LSU. With so many of the Big Ten teams set to play each other, we will find out whether the conference can hold on to seven teams in the top 16 and 12 overall bids. And in the Big 12, West Virginia seeks a spot in the top 16 while bubble teams such as Colorado, Utah and Arizona State can play their way in or out of the field.​

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If I were UCLA I would be pretty pissed off of having #5 Vanderbilt in my bracket. Granted teams don’t want to play teams from their conferences. But why punish a team for having a great season.
 
ConnMotors said:
If I were UCLA I would be pretty pissed off of having #5 Vanderbilt in my bracket. Granted teams don’t want to play teams from their conferences. But why punish a team for having a great season.
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Would you want UCLA to face Michigan or Iowa in the Elite 8? If you were UCLA, would it really matter to you whether you play LSU (more physically gifted) or Vandy(more skilled)?
 
ConnMotors said:
If I were UCLA I would be pretty pissed off of having #5 Vanderbilt in my bracket. Granted teams don’t want to play teams from their conferences. But why punish a team for having a great season.
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I hear you, but other than their bracket, the other option would be UConn's considering Texas and South Carolina are also 1 seeds. If that were the case, should UConn also be pissed off? Both teams have had dominant seasons. It shouldn't matter who they face.
visitingcock said:
Would you want UCLA to face Michigan or Iowa in the Elite 8? If you were UCLA, would it really matter to you whether you play LSU (more physically gifted) or Vandy(more skilled)?
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The same could be said about Texas and South Carolina wanting to see Vandy in the Elite 8. I don't think there's a win-win scenario in this situation.
 
visitingcock said:
Would you want UCLA to face Michigan or Iowa in the Elite 8? If you were UCLA, would it really matter to you whether you play LSU (more physically gifted) or Vandy(more skilled)?
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I hear you and I believe that things changed when UConn played Notre Dame four times one year. But ti me it should be scaled 1 to 16. Then okay whomever. No S curve either. My thoughts that’s all
 
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ConnMotors said:
If I were UCLA I would be pretty pissed off of having #5 Vanderbilt in my bracket. Granted teams don’t want to play teams from their conferences. But why punish a team for having a great season.
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It would only be a 50/50 likelihood that Vandy would even make it to the Regional Final. I bet UCLA wouldn't have any problems with Vanderbilt or any team in the bottom half of the bracket.

ISUnorth said:
Fans and coaches whining after selection day about their unfair seeding is a hallowed March Madness tradition. 😉
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My blood pressure is already rising at the thought of where they are gonna place Duke and (hopefully) High Point 🤬
 
If UCLA had beaten Texas in November, would they be the overall #1? They’re far and away above UConn in Q1 wins. UConn would possibly still lead in NET and advanced metrics.

FWIW I wholly believe UConn deserves overall #1 because you can’t do better than undefeated. But I’m curious what would happen if both teams were.
 
cancontent said:
The same could be said about Texas and South Carolina wanting to see Vandy in the Elite 8. I don't think there's a win-win scenario in this situation.
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Can only speak for myself, but I wouldn't mind seeing Vandy in an Elite 8. I think their Sweet 16 matchup will take enough out of them for them to sputter less than two days later.
 
GoChips20 said:
If UCLA had beaten Texas in November, would they be the overall #1? They’re far and away above UConn in Q1 wins. UConn would possibly still lead in NET and advanced metrics.

FWIW I wholly believe UConn deserves overall #1 because you can’t do better than undefeated. But I’m curious what would happen if both teams were.
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Oh, that's easy.

Yes.
 
GoChips20 said:
If UCLA had beaten Texas in November, would they be the overall #1? They’re far and away above UConn in Q1 wins. UConn would possibly still lead in NET and advanced metrics.

FWIW I wholly believe UConn deserves overall #1 because you can’t do better than undefeated. But I’m curious what would happen if both teams were.
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If UCLA were undefeated I'm sure they would be overall #1.
 
WBBTakeover said:
Can only speak for myself, but I wouldn't mind seeing Vandy in an Elite 8. I think their Sweet 16 matchup will take enough out of them for them to sputter less than two days later.
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Neither would I, but the response I replied to was based on a previous post talking about whether UCLA should be miffed at Vandy being a 2 seed in their bracket to running into another BIG10 team. It's a messy jigsaw puzzle, but I couldn't see UCLA being unhappy with Vandy in their bracket if that's the case.
 
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2026 WCBB NCAAT Bracketology Teams by Overall Seeding:
  • Number in () is the NET on the day on/before the Bracketology date.
  • AQ means “Automatic Qualifier” for a Conference.
IMG_9409.jpeg
 
NCAA Dashboard (3/1/2026) appended to ESPN Bracketology (3/2/2026) to provide insight on:
  • (a) the Hypothesis Testing continuum of the 37 At-Large (Type &1 = 2) Qualifiers;
  • (b) the 68-team Bracketed S-Curve (Overall Seed (OSeed)).
The NCAA procedures for (a), S-Curve and (b) are here.

&1 Type = 1 (Automatic Qualifier) and 2 (At-large Qualifier).

IMG_9412.jpeg


Top 20 Overall Seed | Remaining Schedule
By Conference Bids: Conference Standings | Conference Tournaments

IMG_9411.jpeg
 
GoChips20 said:
If UCLA had beaten Texas in November, would they be the overall #1? They’re far and away above UConn in Q1 wins. UConn would possibly still lead in NET and advanced metrics.

FWIW I wholly believe UConn deserves overall #1 because you can’t do better than undefeated. But I’m curious what would happen if both teams were.
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If UCLA had beaten Texas last November they would have played South Carolina the next day instead of Duke, probably without Lauren Betts who suffered an elbow injury against Texas and missed the Duke game. Beat the Gamecocks and finish undefeated they would receive the #1 overall seed. The Bruins would have finished 4-0 against the SEC, beating SC, Texas, Oklahoma and Tennessee.

But they didn’t beat Texas. UConn will receive the overall top seed.
 
Charlie with an update. No change to the top 16.
www.espn.com

Women's Bracketology: One final projection before the bracket is revealed

All 31 auto-bids are spoken for. Will UConn or UCLA be No. 1 overall? And where will the hosts be seeded?
www.espn.com
This time of year, more teams play themselves out of the NCAA tournament than in. Mississippi State, Stanford and Texas A&M did exactly that Wednesday. And Nebraska nearly did. The Bulldogs needed a win to slow an end-of-season slide. The Cardinal and Aggies, as Next Four Out teams, had ground to make up and needed their Champ Week appearances to last a few days. Instead, Mississippi State, Stanford and Texas A&M each lost and had their NCAA tournament hopes dashed. Nebraska is hanging on despite blowing a 17-point lead to Indiana. Had any of the others won, the Huskers might be out, too. But they hang on for now as the Last Team In. The biggest beneficiaries to all these early exits: Richmond and the Big 12 bubble teams, Colorado, Utah and Arizona State. The Sun Devils were the one bubble team to play on Wednesday and win.​
​
1772715666249.jpeg


From last Friday's post:
12 - Big Ten
10 - SEC
9 - ACC
7 - Big 12
2 - Big East
2 - Atlantic 10
2 - Ivy
 
Ok.... Nebraska blows a huge lead against a lower seated Indiana team I believe they gave up almost 30 points in losing by three.

I believe Mississippi State lost.

While it's still seems to me that ASU will need to beat Iowa State later today in order to have a chance to dance I don't think it's totally out of the realm of possibility.....

As I've incessantly repeated ASU swept Utah and beat Colorado. So it's within the realm of possibility both of those teams lose today.

In this scenario I can make a case ASU as last two team in even with a loss to the Cyclones.

Although I guess I suppose if you're a BYU Cougar fan you could make the same case.

Of course if ASU by some miracle beats Iowa State I think we're in the tournament
 
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Are Summit and Ivy League two bid leagues?

I hope not

KC and ASU have similar win chances today. Will Columbia and Princeton both dance
 
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Husky fans have to go back 40 plus years to remember the extreme anxiety of bubble teams prior to the announcement

Should this give me hope?

BTW-absolutely love the author of this newsletter


Is there some obscure little understood statistic that puts the Devils in the dance? If so I endorse the statistic

"Indiana is ranked 42nd in WAB, four spots behind Nebraska (38th), one spot behind Arizona State (41st), and ahead of every other team in Gauer’s Last 4/First 4. WAB alone won’t be determinative just like NET rankings haven’t been since their introduction, but the NCAA also doesn’t change its criteria just for the sake of it.*

open.substack.com

Tulin's Treasures: Champ Week Rolls on with a Bubble Bonanza

The “Last Four In” and “First Four Out” could be in for a shakeup after a busy Thursday
open.substack.com open.substack.com
I’m not particularly rooting against anyone, but one team I am definitely rooting for to earn an NCAA Tournament berth is Big 12 No. 10 seed Arizona State, which faces No. 7 seed Iowa State (5:30 ET, ESPN+). The Sun Devils (54th in the NET and 41st in WAB) were the only bubble team to earn a win among the four who played yesterday, finishing off a three-game sweep of rival Arizona and avoiding a damaging Quad 4 loss. The Sun Devils feature an almost entirely new roster under first-year head coach Molly Miller, who took Grand Canyon to its first Big Dance last year and didn’t even bring any of her new roster over from GCU. ASU is looking to get back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since going to six straight from 2014-19, although it almost certainly would’ve been in the 2020 edition if it had happened (finished ranked No. 25). Yesterday’s win was ASU’s 22nd, its most in a season since that 2018-19, and a win today would solve its biggest problem — it doesn’t have a Quad 1 win (0-5). Getting one today looks like a tall order after Iowa State dominated ASU 90-64 in mid-February behind 28 points and 12 rebounds from Audi Crooks.
 
As a UConn fan, I don’t want Tennessee in the 8/9 game in our region. It is still a rivalry; and I don’t want to give them a chance to salvage their season at our expense.
 
Stagnant said:
As a UConn fan, I don’t want Tennessee in the 8/9 game in our region. It is still a rivalry; and I don’t want to give them a chance to salvage their season at our expense.
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If they are 8/9, they are either in Storrs or Westwood.
 
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Vowelguy said:
If they are 8/9, they are either in Storrs or Westwood.
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Maybe they fall all the way to a 10 seed?

I knew they were keeping sec 2 seeds away from sec 1 seeds; but they do it even in an 8/9 scenario? Seriously?
 
Stagnant said:
Maybe they fall all the way to a 10 seed?

I knew they were keeping sec 2 seeds away from sec 1 seeds; but they do it even in an 8/9 scenario? Seriously?
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Yes even more so. STRONG preference to avoid conference matchups in the first two rounds.
 
BRS24 said:
Charlie with an update. No change to the top 16.
www.espn.com

Women's Bracketology: One final projection before the bracket is revealed

All 31 auto-bids are spoken for. Will UConn or UCLA be No. 1 overall? And where will the hosts be seeded?
www.espn.com
This time of year, more teams play themselves out of the NCAA tournament than in. Mississippi State, Stanford and Texas A&M did exactly that Wednesday. And Nebraska nearly did. The Bulldogs needed a win to slow an end-of-season slide. The Cardinal and Aggies, as Next Four Out teams, had ground to make up and needed their Champ Week appearances to last a few days. Instead, Mississippi State, Stanford and Texas A&M each lost and had their NCAA tournament hopes dashed. Nebraska is hanging on despite blowing a 17-point lead to Indiana. Had any of the others won, the Huskers might be out, too. But they hang on for now as the Last Team In. The biggest beneficiaries to all these early exits: Richmond and the Big 12 bubble teams, Colorado, Utah and Arizona State. The Sun Devils were the one bubble team to play on Wednesday and win.​
​
View attachment 117794

From last Friday's post:
12 - Big Ten
10 - SEC
9 - ACC
7 - Big 12
2 - Big East
2 - Atlantic 10
2 - Ivy
Expand ...
splitting up the FCC teams is going to win some very unfair matchups in Point
lsu example is clearly not the fourth number 2 seed
kentucky will most likely be the fourth number one
And is clearly a better team than Minnesota another potential
4 seed
The only fair way to do this rank of teams one through 64 and go from there
 
www.espn.com

Women's Bracketology: One final projection before the bracket is revealed

All 31 auto-bids are spoken for. Will UConn or UCLA be No. 1 overall? And where will the hosts be seeded?
www.espn.com

If Wednesday was bubble team Armageddon, Thursday was bubble team nirvana. One day after Mississippi State, Stanford and Texas A&M played their way out of consideration for at-large bids, BYU and Arizona State made the case that they belong. The Cougars picked up their fifth straight win, coming back to beat rival Utah, and moved to the first team out of the field. (In the process they also ended the Utes’ chances.) The Sun Devils -- who sit just behind BYU on the cusp of the field -- led Iowa State from start to finish and finally earned their first Quadrant 1 win. Two days ago, BYU and Arizona State were among the Next Four Out, proving Champ Week can still deliver hope: With an upset of TCU on Friday in the Big 12 quarterfinals, BYU will make the journey back to a bid complete.​

MSU out and Kentucky back in the top 16.

1772803568988.jpeg


LAST FOUR BYES - Last teams to skip the First Four round - Iowa State, USC, Clemson, VA
LAST FOUR IN - Last teams to make the field overall - Princeton, CO, Richmond, Nebraska
FIRST FOUR OUT - Teams ranked 69-72 that missed the cut - BYU, ASU, SDSU, Utah
NEXT FOUR OUT - Teams ranked 73-76 that missed the cut - Miss St, Stanford, TAMU, Kansas

herhoopstats.com

Bracketology | NCAA Women's Basketball 2026 | Her Hoop Stats

2026 NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament Bracketology from Her Hoop Stats
herhoopstats.com herhoopstats.com
Michigan State falls out of the top-16 after following up its regular season ending loss to Ohio State with going one-and-done against Illinois in the Big Ten tournament. North Carolina slides into a hosting spot, but Kentucky is also knocking on the door. On the bubble, a second Big 12 tournament victory for Arizona State, this time over Iowa State, moves the Sun Devils into the field. Utah falls out of the field after a loss to BYU.​
 
BRS24 said:
www.espn.com

Women's Bracketology: One final projection before the bracket is revealed

All 31 auto-bids are spoken for. Will UConn or UCLA be No. 1 overall? And where will the hosts be seeded?
www.espn.com

If Wednesday was bubble team Armageddon, Thursday was bubble team nirvana. One day after Mississippi State, Stanford and Texas A&M played their way out of consideration for at-large bids, BYU and Arizona State made the case that they belong. The Cougars picked up their fifth straight win, coming back to beat rival Utah, and moved to the first team out of the field. (In the process they also ended the Utes’ chances.) The Sun Devils -- who sit just behind BYU on the cusp of the field -- led Iowa State from start to finish and finally earned their first Quadrant 1 win. Two days ago, BYU and Arizona State were among the Next Four Out, proving Champ Week can still deliver hope: With an upset of TCU on Friday in the Big 12 quarterfinals, BYU will make the journey back to a bid complete.​

MSU out and Kentucky back in the top 16.

View attachment 117821

LAST FOUR BYES - Last teams to skip the First Four round - Iowa State, USC, Clemson, VA
LAST FOUR IN - Last teams to make the field overall - Princeton, CO, Richmond, Nebraska
FIRST FOUR OUT - Teams ranked 69-72 that missed the cut - BYU, ASU, SDSU, Utah
NEXT FOUR OUT - Teams ranked 73-76 that missed the cut - Miss St, Stanford, TAMU, Kansas

herhoopstats.com

Bracketology | NCAA Women's Basketball 2026 | Her Hoop Stats

2026 NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament Bracketology from Her Hoop Stats
herhoopstats.com herhoopstats.com
Michigan State falls out of the top-16 after following up its regular season ending loss to Ohio State with going one-and-done against Illinois in the Big Ten tournament. North Carolina slides into a hosting spot, but Kentucky is also knocking on the door. On the bubble, a second Big 12 tournament victory for Arizona State, this time over Iowa State, moves the Sun Devils into the field. Utah falls out of the field after a loss to BYU​
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I'm a huge Amy Williams and Nebraska Cornhusker fan. I flew to Lincoln this season and watched USC take the Huskers apart.

The operative term here is take apart. Nebraska looked inept during that mid season game at home against USC.

Nebraska loses to Indiana in the first round. It would be a tremendous insult, it would be idiotic for this Big ten team to dance over the two big 12 teams that most assuredly deserve to dance

If the committee puts Nebraska in ahead of BYU or ASU they lose any credibility they ever had and it would be malpractice. It would completely delegitimize the entire tournament. Any committee member who signs off on such a idiotic decision should be exiled to Turkey to officiate third level women's amateur games.

As I said earlier due to their sweep ASU BYU with Delaney Gibbs should be dancing.

After the huge win yesterday I was so confident that ASU would dance that I slept like a baby and in fact had dreams of cutting down the nets.

The Richmond Spiders are a fine team. Do they belong in the tournament above a surging Big 12 team?

Let's talk credibility. If Tennessee can lose their way into the big dance with seven straight losses and ASU can win their way out of the dance you have to wonder what kind of selection committee is cursing fans
 
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