Bracketology - Week 18 (merged) | Page 3 | The Boneyard

Bracketology - Week 18 (merged)

Late update last night from CC:

Baylor was Saturday's big winner. Virginia Tech suffered the day's biggest loss. By virtue of their overtime win in the Big 12 semifinals, the Bears moved up to take the final spot in the top 16 and a chance to host. That won't change Sunday, even if Baylor loses to TCU in the Big 12 title game. The Hokies found themselves on the wrong side of the bubble when the Atlantic 10 became a two-bid conference. Richmond was already an NCAA tournament lock but will go in as an at-large after falling to Saint Joseph's in Saturday's A-10 semifinals. Either the Hawks or George Mason will take the A-10's automatic bid. The No. 1 seeds were also sewn up Saturday, with South Carolina and UCLA cruising to wins to join USC and Texas as certain top seeds. That USC-UCLA and South Carolina-Texas are conference championship matchups on Sunday is an extra treat. But the No. 1 overall seed is still up for grabs. TCU could take the final No. 2 seed from LSU if it wins the Big 12 title. In the ACC, Notre Dame held on to a No. 2 seed after a loss in the semis but is now the No. 7 overall seed.​
​
Grid is compressed to hide a whole lotta rows. Baylor replaces Kansas State in the top 16. Some 3 seeds got shifted.

1741530218937.jpeg


Big Ten - 12, SEC - 10, ACC - 9, Big 12 - 7, Ivy - 3, Big East - 2, A 10 - 2

Seton Hall and Marquette in Next Four Out.

1741529778350.jpeg
 
This is what I am hoping for:

1. UCLA
2. South Carolina
3. Texas
4. USC
5. UConn

I don’t know if it is possible to get there or not. But I need ucla and South Carolina to win today to make it possible. I just think UConn’s best path to the final four involves USC being the 1 in their region. (Tbf, Texas doesn’t scare me that much either. They have looked bad the last couple of weeks.)
 
Stagnant said:
This is what I am hoping for:

1. UCLA
2. South Carolina
3. Texas
4. USC
5. UConn

I don’t know if it is possible to get there or not. But I need ucla and South Carolina to win today to make it possible. I just think UConn’s best path to the final four involves USC being the 1 in their region. (Tbf, Texas doesn’t scare me that much either. They have looked bad the last couple of weeks.)
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My "back of the napkin" predictions:

1. If Texas and USC win today: 1 Texas, 2 USC, 3 UCLA, 4 SC
2. If Texas and UCLA win today: 1 Texas, 2 UCLA, 3 USC, 4 SC
3. If SC and USC win today: 1 USC, 2 SC, 3 Texas, 4 UCLA (committee might switch 2 and 3 here)
4. If SC and UCLA win today: 1 UCLA, 2 SC, 3 Texas, 4 USC (ditto)

In short, if Texas wins I think it's more clear-cut based on where the teams were in the last reveal. If South Carolina wins, it's a bit messier. There is very little separating these four resumes at this point. USC and UCLA could end up anywhere from 1 to 4. It's also not out of the question that SC could vault to #1 overall with a win today, though it seems less likely to me.
 
Plebe said:
My "back of the napkin" predictions:

1. If Texas and USC win today: 1 Texas, 2 USC, 3 UCLA, 4 SC
2. If Texas and UCLA win today: 1 Texas, 2 UCLA, 3 USC, 4 SC
3. If SC and USC win today: 1 USC, 2 SC, 3 Texas, 4 UCLA (committee might switch 2 and 3 here)
4. If SC and UCLA win today: 1 UCLA, 2 SC, 3 Texas, 4 USC (ditto)

In short, if Texas wins I think it's more clear-cut based on where the teams were in the last reveal. If South Carolina wins, it's a bit messier. There is very little separating these four resumes at this point. USC and UCLA could end up anywhere from 1 to 4. It's also not out of the question that SC could vault to #1 overall with a win today, though it seems less likely to me.
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Agreed. I don’t see them grouping a conference 1/4 or 2/3.

The UConn arsewhipping is too fresh in people’s minds to place SCar #1
 
visitingcock said:
Agreed. I don’t see them grouping a conference 1/4 or 2/3.

The UConn arsewhipping is too fresh in people’s minds to place SCar #1
Expand ...
I don't think it's that. The committee is not like public opinion on Twitter.

If SC continues to crush Texas and if the Big Ten final is very close, it'll be up in the air.
 
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Plebe said:
I don't think it's that. The committee is not like public opinion on Twitter.

If SC continues to crush Texas and if the Big Ten final is very close, it'll be up in the air.
Expand ...
Any way it goes “ it’s up in the air.”
 
Kaizen said:
This is both AP and Coach polls, as today, 3/9/2025 morning
#1, Texas
#2, USC
#3, UConn
#4, UCLA
#5, South Carolina

Now both UConn and South Carolina wins and one of USC/UCLA must lose,
I don't see why UConn will not be in the top 4 and #1 seed?
Expand ...
Polls don't determine seeding.
 
Kaizen said:
This is both AP and Coach polls, as today, 3/9/2025 morning
#1, Texas
#2, USC
#3, UConn
#4, UCLA
#5, South Carolina

Now both UConn and South Carolina wins and one of USC/UCLA must lose,
I don't see why UConn will not be in the top 4 and #1 seed?
Expand ...
Polls have no effect on seeding. None.
 
Kaizen said:
This is both AP and Coach polls, as today, 3/9/2025 morning
#1, Texas
#2, USC
#3, UConn
#4, UCLA
#5, South Carolina

Now both UConn and South Carolina wins and one of USC/UCLA must lose,
I don't see why UConn will not be in the top 4 and #1 seed?
Expand ...
The committee has a new toy. It’s called “ quad records.”

How much will they use it?
 
You have a legitimate point there, and heck Texas is losing and maybe USC...UConn could even move up in the polls.:D

The issue is that tourney seeding is different from polls and has a different process. There is less recency bias, and in theory more rigorous analysis of the total season.

Pretty fairly, TX, UCLA, SC, and USC have had slightly better overall seasons, and UConn is correct at #5.

Funny of course would be UConn #2 in AP and #5 in tournament.:confused:

Most important UConn is at full strength and playing their best at the right time. None of these teams is flawless. Good defense and a decent shooting % can win against any of the #1s.
 
.-.
visitingcock said:
The committee has a new toy. It’s called “ quad records.”

How much will they use it?
Expand ...
Not really new. Just a different way of organizing the “team sheets” and “nitty gritty” which they use to visualize the data. Last year the data were organized by wins and losses vs. the NET top 25, top 50, teams 51-100, etc.; this year those data are organized by “quads” that are sensitive to game location.
 
Here’s an interesting stat from NCAA Statistics

The strength of schedule is calculated by adding opponents’ win-loss records together then dividing the total wins by total losses. I have no idea if this is used for seeding.

During the game, Fox briefly showed UConn’s tournament resume. I saw a stat there I hadn’t seen before - opponents’ average NET rank. UConn’s opponents’ average is 17

IMG_3711.jpeg
 
HuskyNan said:
Polls have no effect on seeding. None.
Expand ...
You keep saying that, but polls and seeding have a strong correlation.

Polls are the closest thing we have to the current ranking of teams from the folks that supposedly know a lot about the sport.

The most important metric the committee uses is the NET, which takes into account the SoS, margins, home/away, etc. If NET was the only metric used, UConn would get the overall 1 seed without doubt. But the committee also considers recent/early performance (which is not differentiated by the NET), and this is where the polls can give you an idea.

Here's another example where polls get the seeding right but not the NET: Gonzaga men are ranked 8th per NET but have a ranking in AP/coaches polls near 30. And most bracketologists put them around the 8th seed, which translates to approximately 29-32 by ranking.

Committee won't use polls in their seeding, but polls are a decent indicator of relative strengths of teams now, and therefore of, seeding.
 
Plebe said:
Not really new. Just a different way of organizing the “team sheets” and “nitty gritty” which they use to visualize the data. Last year the data were organized by wins and losses vs. the NET top 25, top 50, teams 51-100, etc.; this year those data are organized by “quads” that are sensitive to game location.
Expand ...
The neutral site record plus the away record will be most important for Sweet Sixteen and beyond...

Being #5 (top #2 seed) should be good until the Elite Eight, and then it is a Two-day turn-around with "a chip of the shoulder of our Seniors," and Sarah appears to have gained the "2nd Year bump" like Stewie had in her Freshman year at about this time.

Historically, two day turn-arounds favor Geno & CD as they will be in their 29th in the Elite Eight this year [23-5 so far]... [speaking a win in the elite eight into existence for this year!!!]

Go Huskies!!!
 
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HuskyNan said:
Here’s an interesting stat from NCAA Statistics

The strength of schedule is calculated by adding opponents’ win-loss records together then dividing the total wins by total losses. I have no idea if this is used for seeding.

During the game, Fox briefly showed UConn’s tournament resume. I saw a stat there I hadn’t seen before - opponents’ average NET rank. UConn’s opponents’ average is 17

View attachment 107610
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That's not true, UConn's opponent's NET rank average is much higher than 17. Go to this site for a lot more info on NET and other ratings:

The NET Nitty Gritty Report for NCAA Women's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

The NET Nitty Gritty Report for 2025 NCAA Women's College Basketball. This Is a Duplication of the Report Used by the Tournament Selection Committee to Determine At-Large Teams with Quadrants
www.warrennolan.com www.warrennolan.com

UConn's record is 30-3, the average NET of their wins is 93, and the average of their losses is 8. You don't need a calculator to see that UConn's opponent's average NET is closer to 90.

Also, the table of SoS you put up seems like the RPI rating and not NET SoS. UConn's NET SoS is ~50, not 6 like in your table (UConn's RPI is close to 6).
 
This is what I’m personally hoping for:
1: USC
2: South Carolina
3: UCLA
4: Texas
5: UConn
6: NC State
7: ND
8: TCU
9: LSU
10: Duke
This path is winnable to the championship game for UConn.
But who knows what they’re going to do with the 3 and 4, overall seeds. I’m hoping it’s not UCLA and UConn in the same regional
 
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HuskyNan said:
During the game, Fox briefly showed UConn’s tournament resume. I saw a stat there I hadn’t seen before - opponents’ average NET rank. UConn’s opponents’ average is 17
Expand ...
The wording used by the NCAA Stats page is quite confusing here.

The “nitty gritty” sheet has three columns related to strength of schedule, labeled as:
  • NET SOS
  • Avg opp NET rank
  • Avg opp NET
UConn's “average opponent NET” is 87 (meaning, this is the average NET ranking of all UConn opponents), and UConn ranks 17th among all teams on this metric (i.e. their “average opponent NET rank” is 17).

Folks can see the NCAA stats page here. (Sorry I tried to paste a screenshot into this message, but somehow it didn't come through.)
 
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maxw said:
That's not true, UConn's opponent's NET rank average is much higher than 17. Go to this site for a lot more info on NET and other ratings:

The NET Nitty Gritty Report for NCAA Women's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

The NET Nitty Gritty Report for 2025 NCAA Women's College Basketball. This Is a Duplication of the Report Used by the Tournament Selection Committee to Determine At-Large Teams with Quadrants
www.warrennolan.com www.warrennolan.com

UConn's record is 30-3, the average NET of their wins is 93, and the average of their losses is 8. You don't need a calculator to see that UConn's opponent's average NET is closer to 90.

Also, the table of SoS you put up seems like the RPI rating and not NET SoS. UConn's NET SoS is ~50, not 6 like in your table (UConn's RPI is close to 6).
Expand ...
That’s not what is being calculated. See below. So Carolina’s NET rating is 2, ND is 5, USC is 6, etc. add those rankings up and divide by 30 games for UConn’s opponents’ average NET

www.ncaa.com

DI Women's Basketball Rankings - NCAA Women's Basketball NET Rankings | NCAA.com

Get NCAA women's college basketball rankings from the Associated Press, USA Today/WBCA and NCAA committee.
www.ncaa.com www.ncaa.com

IMG_3712.jpeg
 
UConn really needs for USC to win this game over UCLA. Otherwise they will be be the best #2 Seed.
 
Not a big fan of the quads…

Quad one: home 1-25, neutral 1-35 and away 1-45

It‘s far too large of a grouping to have any real meaning. There’s a vast difference in quality once you get outside the top 10 or so. As of today, 45 is George Mason. Does anyone think they belong in the same sentence as the top teams? It artificially rewards the bigger conferences (read SEC) just for playing their schedule.
 
You got that right but, as I predicted (in the chat), UCLA would win and join SC as #1 seed locks. So Uconn would have to displace either USC or Texas. Displacing USC doesn't seem possible as they only have 2 losses and beat Uconn on the road face-to-face. So Uconn would have to edge out Texas - maybe, but not likely
 
.-.
UCLA wins by 5 Pts. Therefore, #1, #2, #6, & #7 lose in last three days.

However, UConn had to play St. John & Villanova lowering UConn's Opponent's NET score average....

Only a week to wait for the REAL seedings, and 26-ish hours for the next UConn BE tourney Championship!!!

Go Huskies!!!
 
Puppy Love said:
Not a big fan of the quads…

Quad one: home 1-25, neutral 1-35 and away 1-45

It‘s far too large of a grouping to have any real meaning. There’s a vast difference in quality once you get outside the top 10 or so. As of today, 45 is George Mason. Does anyone think they belong in the same sentence as the top teams? It artificially rewards the bigger conferences (read SEC) just for playing their schedule.
Expand ...
The committee knows how to discern between a good win and a great win. Hence our win over South Carolina carries greater weight than our wins over, say, Louisville or Creighton.

It's also why Notre Dame, with 3 wins over the top 5 teams, is projected higher in the seeding than North Carolina despite their roughly similar Quad 1 W-L records.
 
1) UCLA
2) SoCar
3) USC
4) Texas
5) UConn
6) ND
7) NCSt
8) Duke
9) TCU
10) LSU
11) Okla
12) Ky
13) UNC
14) Ole Miss
15) Ohiost
16) Bay
17) Tenn


Spok1: 1 UCLA / 8 Duke / 10 LSU / 16 Bay
Birm4: 4 Tex / 5 UConn / 12 Ky / 13 UNC

Birm2: 2 SoCar / 7 NCSt / 9 TCU / 15 OhSt
Spok3: 3 USC / 6 ND / 11 Okla / 14 OlMs
 
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Possible tournament Top 8.

#1 UCLA vs #8 Notre Dame
#2 South Carolina vs #7 Duke
#3 Southern California vs #6 TCU
#4 Texas vs #5 UConn
 
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