Bracketology - Week 18 (merged)

[The CDR-Ret]

Not really new. Just a different way of organizing the “team sheets” and “nitty gritty” which they use to visualize the data. Last year the data were organized by wins and losses vs. the NET top 25, top 50, teams 51-100, etc.; this year those data are organized by “quads” that are sensitive to game location.

The neutral site record plus the away record will be most important for Sweet Sixteen and beyond...

Being #5 (top #2 seed) should be good until the Elite Eight, and then it is a Two-day turn-around with "a chip of the shoulder of our Seniors," and Sarah appears to have gained the "2nd Year bump" like Stewie had in her Freshman year at about this time.

Historically, two day turn-arounds favor Geno & CD as they will be in their 29th in the Elite Eight this year [23-5 so far]... [speaking a win in the elite eight into existence for this year!!!]

Go Huskies!!!

 

[maxw]

Here’s an interesting stat from NCAA Statistics

The strength of schedule is calculated by adding opponents’ win-loss records together then dividing the total wins by total losses. I have no idea if this is used for seeding.

During the game, Fox briefly showed UConn’s tournament resume. I saw a stat there I hadn’t seen before - opponents’ average NET rank. UConn’s opponents’ average is 17

View attachment 107610

That's not true, UConn's opponent's NET rank average is much higher than 17. Go to this site for a lot more info on NET and other ratings:

The NET Nitty Gritty Report for NCAA Women's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

The NET Nitty Gritty Report for 2025 NCAA Women's College Basketball. This Is a Duplication of the Report Used by the Tournament Selection Committee to Determine At-Large Teams with Quadrants

www.warrennolan.com

UConn's record is 30-3, the average NET of their wins is 93, and the average of their losses is 8. You don't need a calculator to see that UConn's opponent's average NET is closer to 90.

Also, the table of SoS you put up seems like the RPI rating and not NET SoS. UConn's NET SoS is ~50, not 6 like in your table (UConn's RPI is close to 6).

 

[Hayven]

This is what I’m personally hoping for:
1: USC
2: South Carolina
3: UCLA
4: Texas
5: UConn
6: NC State
7: ND
8: TCU
9: LSU
10: Duke
This path is winnable to the championship game for UConn.
But who knows what they’re going to do with the 3 and 4, overall seeds. I’m hoping it’s not UCLA and UConn in the same regional

 

[Plebe]

During the game, Fox briefly showed UConn’s tournament resume. I saw a stat there I hadn’t seen before - opponents’ average NET rank. UConn’s opponents’ average is 17

The wording used by the NCAA Stats page is quite confusing here.

The “nitty gritty” sheet has three columns related to strength of schedule, labeled as:

• NET SOS
• Avg opp NET rank
• Avg opp NET

UConn's “average opponent NET” is 87 (meaning, this is the average NET ranking of all UConn opponents), and UConn ranks 17th among all teams on this metric (i.e. their “average opponent NET rank” is 17).

Folks can see the NCAA stats page here. (Sorry I tried to paste a screenshot into this message, but somehow it didn't come through.)

 

[HuskyNan]

That's not true, UConn's opponent's NET rank average is much higher than 17. Go to this site for a lot more info on NET and other ratings:

The NET Nitty Gritty Report for NCAA Women's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

The NET Nitty Gritty Report for 2025 NCAA Women's College Basketball. This Is a Duplication of the Report Used by the Tournament Selection Committee to Determine At-Large Teams with Quadrants

www.warrennolan.com

UConn's record is 30-3, the average NET of their wins is 93, and the average of their losses is 8. You don't need a calculator to see that UConn's opponent's average NET is closer to 90.

Also, the table of SoS you put up seems like the RPI rating and not NET SoS. UConn's NET SoS is ~50, not 6 like in your table (UConn's RPI is close to 6).

That’s not what is being calculated. See below. So Carolina’s NET rating is 2, ND is 5, USC is 6, etc. add those rankings up and divide by 30 games for UConn’s opponents’ average NET

DI Women's Basketball Rankings - NCAA Women's Basketball NET Rankings | NCAA.com

Get NCAA women's college basketball rankings from the Associated Press, USA Today/WBCA and NCAA committee.

www.ncaa.com

 

[ConnMotors]

UConn really needs for USC to win this game over UCLA. Otherwise they will be be the best #2 Seed.

 

[Puppy Love]

Not a big fan of the quads…

Quad one: home 1-25, neutral 1-35 and away 1-45

It‘s far too large of a grouping to have any real meaning. There’s a vast difference in quality once you get outside the top 10 or so. As of today, 45 is George Mason. Does anyone think they belong in the same sentence as the top teams? It artificially rewards the bigger conferences (read SEC) just for playing their schedule.

 

[hookshot]

UConn really needs for USC to win this game over UCLA. Otherwise they will be be the best #2 Seed.

 

[hookshot]

You got that right but, as I predicted (in the chat), UCLA would win and join SC as #1 seed locks. So Uconn would have to displace either USC or Texas. Displacing USC doesn't seem possible as they only have 2 losses and beat Uconn on the road face-to-face. So Uconn would have to edge out Texas - maybe, but not likely

 

[The CDR-Ret]

UCLA up by 3 pts, 3 secs left;

Creighton up by 28 pts with 2:33 left.

 

[The CDR-Ret]

UCLA wins by 5 Pts. Therefore, #1, #2, #6, & #7 lose in last three days.

However, UConn had to play St. John & Villanova lowering UConn's Opponent's NET score average....

Only a week to wait for the REAL seedings, and 26-ish hours for the next UConn BE tourney Championship!!!

Go Huskies!!!

 

[Plebe]

Not a big fan of the quads…

Quad one: home 1-25, neutral 1-35 and away 1-45

It‘s far too large of a grouping to have any real meaning. There’s a vast difference in quality once you get outside the top 10 or so. As of today, 45 is George Mason. Does anyone think they belong in the same sentence as the top teams? It artificially rewards the bigger conferences (read SEC) just for playing their schedule.

The committee knows how to discern between a good win and a great win. Hence our win over South Carolina carries greater weight than our wins over, say, Louisville or Creighton.

It's also why Notre Dame, with 3 wins over the top 5 teams, is projected higher in the seeding than North Carolina despite their roughly similar Quad 1 W-L records.

 

[Vowelguy]

1) UCLA
2) SoCar
3) USC
4) Texas
5) UConn
6) ND
7) NCSt
8) Duke
9) TCU
10) LSU
11) Okla
12) Ky
13) UNC
14) Ole Miss
15) Ohiost
16) Bay
17) Tenn


Spok1: 1 UCLA / 8 Duke / 10 LSU / 16 Bay
Birm4: 4 Tex / 5 UConn / 12 Ky / 13 UNC

Birm2: 2 SoCar / 7 NCSt / 9 TCU / 15 OhSt
Spok3: 3 USC / 6 ND / 11 Okla / 14 OlMs

 

[BRS24]

1) UCLA
2) SoCar
3) USC
4) Texas
5) UConn
6) ND
7) NCSt
8) Duke
9) TCU
10) LSU
11) Okla
12) Ky
13) UNC
14) Ole Miss
15) Ohiost
16) Tenn
17) Bay

ooh me likey ... UConn v Texas? I'd take that

 

[maxw]

That’s not what is being calculated. See below. So Carolina’s NET rating is 2, ND is 5, USC is 6, etc. add those rankings up and divide by 30 games for UConn’s opponents’ average NET

DI Women's Basketball Rankings - NCAA Women's Basketball NET Rankings | NCAA.com

Get NCAA women's college basketball rankings from the Associated Press, USA Today/WBCA and NCAA committee.

www.ncaa.com

View attachment 107613

Did you (or someone) delete my response correcting you?

Once again, UConn played several teams outside of top-100 NET. Your list above only shows the top teams UConn played.

You can add up the numbers of all UConn opponents, or use the aggregates I shared in my previous post.

Your statement that the avg NET of UConn's opponents is 17 is wrong.

 

[ConnMotors]

Possible tournament Top 8.

#1 UCLA vs #8 Notre Dame
#2 South Carolina vs #7 Duke
#3 Southern California vs #6 TCU
#4 Texas vs #5 UConn

 

[AzzisBraids]

UConn is in a great position to be in either Texas' or USC' region as the highest two seed. They avoid South Carolina and UCLA who are the top 1 seeds which is a great result and once they handle business tomorrow, I like where they are positioned.

UConn has already faced USC and Geno gameplans well against teams that have beat him in the regular season. Also with Aubrey Griffin back - they have a Watkins stopper that can match her size and athleticism.

Texas is extremely limited in their offense and Geno just needs to replicate what SC did today and they will win surely. Really good position for a Final Four.

 

[Puppy Love]

The committee knows how to discern between a good win and a great win. Hence our win over South Carolina carries greater weight than our wins over, say, Louisville or Creighton.

It's also why Notre Dame, with 3 wins over the top 5 teams, is projected higher in the seeding than North Carolina despite their roughly similar Quad 1 W-L records.

My point is more that if the committee still has to subjectively analyze quality wins and losses, the quads need to be tweaked. For example, the Vols are still 14th in the net. The way they’ve played the last two weeks, no one should get any credit for beating them. Because the net is a season long view, it doesn’t tell you anything about how teams are performing today and it still makes the committee just a subjective decision with not great data around it.

 

[Heytherego]

I don’t think SC will be the #1 overall over UCLA especially with UCLA winning head to head

 

[jaydee602]

Charlie Creme predicts the selection committee's #2 seeds:
1st) UCONN
2nd) NC State
3rd) Notre Dame
4th) TCU or LSU

Surprisingly, he has ACC champ Duke locked in as a 3 seed.

 

[bballnut90]

I think UCLA is clear cut #1, South Carolina #2. Texas and USC are closer but I think Texas is the #3. I don’t think they’ll drop from #1 to #4 for a road loss to South Carolina. Both have similar win profiles (maybe slight edge to USC), but USC has a far worse loss in losing to Iowa, where Texas has lost 2 road games to SC and an OT road loss to Notre Dame

 

[visitingcock]

Not a big fan of the quads…

Quad one: home 1-25, neutral 1-35 and away 1-45

It‘s far too large of a grouping to have any real meaning. There’s a vast difference in quality once you get outside the top 10 or so. As of today, 45 is George Mason. Does anyone think they belong in the same sentence as the top teams? It artificially rewards the bigger conferences (read SEC) just for playing their schedule.

You can’t “ read SEC.”

It’s the smallest of the P-4 conferences.

 

[bballnut90]

Charlie Creme predicts the selection committee's #2 seeds:
1st) UCONN
2nd) NC State
3rd) Notre Dame
4th) TCU or LSU

Surprisingly, he has ACC champ Duke locked in as a 3 seed.

I agree with this. Duke is playing great but when looking at their full body of work, losses to USF and Louisville are not good.

I think TCU is pretty clearly the last #2 seed though. They’ve dominated the Big 12 and have OOC wins over fellow 2 seeds Notre Dame and NC State. Their only losses at to South Carolina, OK State (projected 7 seed) and Kansas State (projected 5 seed). LSU has some nice wins but not as many as TCU, and their losses to Alabama and Ole Miss finishing the year push them to the 3 line IMO.

 

[triaddukefan]

I agree with this. Duke is playing great but when looking at their full body of work, losses to USF and Louisville are not good.

I think TCU is pretty clearly the last #2 seed though. They’ve dominated the Big 12 and have OOC wins over fellow 2 seeds Notre Dame and NC State. Their only losses at to South Carolina, OK State (projected 7 seed) and Kansas State (projected 5 seed). LSU has some nice wins but not as many as TCU, and their losses to Alabama and Ole Miss finishing the year push them to the 3 line IMO.

Sign me up for #2 TCU is we are a #3. Frog legs are quite tasty from what I remember.

 

[Puppy Love]

You can’t “ read SEC.”

It’s the smallest of the P-4 conferences.

It also has 9 teams out of the top 25 in the net. It only matters to the extent that the committee actually cares about the wins within the quads. My main point is that the gap between the top teams and everyone else is still too large to make the quads meaningful.