Bracketology - Week 18 (merged)

[BRS24]

And a late update from HerHoopStats:

Ohio State replaces Alabama in the top 16.

 

[packwrap]

Thanks for doing this, you are relentless!

Looks like Baylor or WVU could push Kansas St out of hosting with another win or two.

That's pretty much it for surviving candidates.

 

[BRS24]

Hey @nwhoopfan

 

[bballnut90]

Current thoughts:
-NC State has locked up a 2 seed, likely #8 overall. Could move up to #7 or #6 with a win tomorrow to win the ACC Championship. Things get messy in the #5-7 spots if NC State wins, Notre Dame loses and UCONN wins.

-I think the only locks for a 1 seed are Texas/USC.

-UCLA can cement a 1 seed with a win today. If they lose today and both SC/Notre Dame win their conference tournament, I think they drop to the top 2.

-South Carolina gets a #1 if they win the SEC or if Notre Dame loses in the ACC tournament.

-I think LSU should be on the 2 line even with a loss today. Although TCU could sneak up and take it if they win their tournament.

-UCONN is locked in to a 2 seed in the #5-#7 range. Whatever 1 they're matched up with will be determined by avoiding conference matchups between 1/2.

 

[BRS24]

Burst bubble update from CC.

Saturday brought the first bid stealer of Champ Week. Saint Joseph's upset of Richmond means the Atlantic 10 will get two teams in the NCAA tournament. Despite the loss, the Spiders will make the field as an at-large, but now either George Mason, Davidson or Saint Joseph's will join them as the conference's automatic qualifier. The A-10 was one of only two leagues with certain bid-stealing potential, and Saint Joseph's turned that into a reality with Laura Ziegler's buzzer-beater for a 50-49 win. The Summit League is the other conference with a possible bid stealer. If South Dakota State loses in the finals on Sunday, another bubble will burst.

 

[Cornell Lt]

Down goes ND !!!!!!!

 

[BRS24]

FWIW -

 

[Bone Dog]

Wow! I didn't see that coming. ND shot poorly, especially from 3 -- though Miles -- but they played tough D mostly and won the TO battle 16-21. Duke dominated the boards 31-17 and that seems to been decisive. In particular, it looks like the Duke guards stepped up and rebounded well, while on the other side Hidalgo and Citron weren't as aggressive. Hats off to Duke.

 

[BRS24]

5 PM update - Charlie swaps 2 ND and 2 NCSU. ND now in region 1 with Texas, and NCSU is in region 3 with UCLA.

 

[Plebe]

If Duke wins tomorrow, there's a chance 3 ACC teams could be on the 2-line.

 

[BRS24]

Late update last night from CC:

Baylor was Saturday's big winner. Virginia Tech suffered the day's biggest loss. By virtue of their overtime win in the Big 12 semifinals, the Bears moved up to take the final spot in the top 16 and a chance to host. That won't change Sunday, even if Baylor loses to TCU in the Big 12 title game. The Hokies found themselves on the wrong side of the bubble when the Atlantic 10 became a two-bid conference. Richmond was already an NCAA tournament lock but will go in as an at-large after falling to Saint Joseph's in Saturday's A-10 semifinals. Either the Hawks or George Mason will take the A-10's automatic bid. The No. 1 seeds were also sewn up Saturday, with South Carolina and UCLA cruising to wins to join USC and Texas as certain top seeds. That USC-UCLA and South Carolina-Texas are conference championship matchups on Sunday is an extra treat. But the No. 1 overall seed is still up for grabs. TCU could take the final No. 2 seed from LSU if it wins the Big 12 title. In the ACC, Notre Dame held on to a No. 2 seed after a loss in the semis but is now the No. 7 overall seed.​

​

Grid is compressed to hide a whole lotta rows. Baylor replaces Kansas State in the top 16. Some 3 seeds got shifted.

Big Ten - 12, SEC - 10, ACC - 9, Big 12 - 7, Ivy - 3, Big East - 2, A 10 - 2

Seton Hall and Marquette in Next Four Out.

 

[BRS24]

HerHoopStats also with an update last night:

 

[Stagnant]

This is what I am hoping for:

1. UCLA
2. South Carolina
3. Texas
4. USC
5. UConn

I don’t know if it is possible to get there or not. But I need ucla and South Carolina to win today to make it possible. I just think UConn’s best path to the final four involves USC being the 1 in their region. (Tbf, Texas doesn’t scare me that much either. They have looked bad the last couple of weeks.)

 

[Plebe]

This is what I am hoping for:

1. UCLA
2. South Carolina
3. Texas
4. USC
5. UConn

I don’t know if it is possible to get there or not. But I need ucla and South Carolina to win today to make it possible. I just think UConn’s best path to the final four involves USC being the 1 in their region. (Tbf, Texas doesn’t scare me that much either. They have looked bad the last couple of weeks.)

My "back of the napkin" predictions:

1. If Texas and USC win today: 1 Texas, 2 USC, 3 UCLA, 4 SC
2. If Texas and UCLA win today: 1 Texas, 2 UCLA, 3 USC, 4 SC
3. If SC and USC win today: 1 USC, 2 SC, 3 Texas, 4 UCLA (committee might switch 2 and 3 here)
4. If SC and UCLA win today: 1 UCLA, 2 SC, 3 Texas, 4 USC (ditto)

In short, if Texas wins I think it's more clear-cut based on where the teams were in the last reveal. If South Carolina wins, it's a bit messier. There is very little separating these four resumes at this point. USC and UCLA could end up anywhere from 1 to 4. It's also not out of the question that SC could vault to #1 overall with a win today, though it seems less likely to me.

 

[visitingcock]

My "back of the napkin" predictions:

1. If Texas and USC win today: 1 Texas, 2 USC, 3 UCLA, 4 SC
2. If Texas and UCLA win today: 1 Texas, 2 UCLA, 3 USC, 4 SC
3. If SC and USC win today: 1 USC, 2 SC, 3 Texas, 4 UCLA (committee might switch 2 and 3 here)
4. If SC and UCLA win today: 1 UCLA, 2 SC, 3 Texas, 4 USC (ditto)

In short, if Texas wins I think it's more clear-cut based on where the teams were in the last reveal. If South Carolina wins, it's a bit messier. There is very little separating these four resumes at this point. USC and UCLA could end up anywhere from 1 to 4. It's also not out of the question that SC could vault to #1 overall with a win today, though it seems less likely to me.

Agreed. I don’t see them grouping a conference 1/4 or 2/3.

The UConn arsewhipping is too fresh in people’s minds to place SCar #1

 

[Plebe]

Agreed. I don’t see them grouping a conference 1/4 or 2/3.

The UConn arsewhipping is too fresh in people’s minds to place SCar #1

I don't think it's that. The committee is not like public opinion on Twitter.

If SC continues to crush Texas and if the Big Ten final is very close, it'll be up in the air.

 

[visitingcock]

I don't think it's that. The committee is not like public opinion on Twitter.

If SC continues to crush Texas and if the Big Ten final is very close, it'll be up in the air.

Any way it goes “ it’s up in the air.”

 

[Zonepress]

I will be happy as long as so Carolina is in another bracket

 

[Plebe]

This is both AP and Coach polls, as today, 3/9/2025 morning
#1, Texas
#2, USC
#3, UConn
#4, UCLA
#5, South Carolina

Now both UConn and South Carolina wins and one of USC/UCLA must lose,
I don't see why UConn will not be in the top 4 and #1 seed?

Polls don't determine seeding.

 

[HuskyNan]

This is both AP and Coach polls, as today, 3/9/2025 morning
#1, Texas
#2, USC
#3, UConn
#4, UCLA
#5, South Carolina

Now both UConn and South Carolina wins and one of USC/UCLA must lose,
I don't see why UConn will not be in the top 4 and #1 seed?

Polls have no effect on seeding. None.

 

[visitingcock]

This is both AP and Coach polls, as today, 3/9/2025 morning
#1, Texas
#2, USC
#3, UConn
#4, UCLA
#5, South Carolina

Now both UConn and South Carolina wins and one of USC/UCLA must lose,
I don't see why UConn will not be in the top 4 and #1 seed?

The committee has a new toy. It’s called “ quad records.”

How much will they use it?

 

[packwrap]

You have a legitimate point there, and heck Texas is losing and maybe USC...UConn could even move up in the polls.

The issue is that tourney seeding is different from polls and has a different process. There is less recency bias, and in theory more rigorous analysis of the total season.

Pretty fairly, TX, UCLA, SC, and USC have had slightly better overall seasons, and UConn is correct at #5.

Funny of course would be UConn #2 in AP and #5 in tournament.

Most important UConn is at full strength and playing their best at the right time. None of these teams is flawless. Good defense and a decent shooting % can win against any of the #1s.

 

[Plebe]

The committee has a new toy. It’s called “ quad records.”

How much will they use it?

Not really new. Just a different way of organizing the “team sheets” and “nitty gritty” which they use to visualize the data. Last year the data were organized by wins and losses vs. the NET top 25, top 50, teams 51-100, etc.; this year those data are organized by “quads” that are sensitive to game location.

 

[HuskyNan]

Here’s an interesting stat from NCAA Statistics

The strength of schedule is calculated by adding opponents’ win-loss records together then dividing the total wins by total losses. I have no idea if this is used for seeding.

During the game, Fox briefly showed UConn’s tournament resume. I saw a stat there I hadn’t seen before - opponents’ average NET rank. UConn’s opponents’ average is 17

 

[maxw]

Polls have no effect on seeding. None.

You keep saying that, but polls and seeding have a strong correlation.

Polls are the closest thing we have to the current ranking of teams from the folks that supposedly know a lot about the sport.

The most important metric the committee uses is the NET, which takes into account the SoS, margins, home/away, etc. If NET was the only metric used, UConn would get the overall 1 seed without doubt. But the committee also considers recent/early performance (which is not differentiated by the NET), and this is where the polls can give you an idea.

Here's another example where polls get the seeding right but not the NET: Gonzaga men are ranked 8th per NET but have a ranking in AP/coaches polls near 30. And most bracketologists put them around the 8th seed, which translates to approximately 29-32 by ranking.

Committee won't use polls in their seeding, but polls are a decent indicator of relative strengths of teams now, and therefore of, seeding.