Bowl math

[RSTuthill]

Probably yes.

I edited to include N. Texas and Virginia. What do you think?

 

[shizzle787]

I edited to include N. Texas and Virginia. What do you think?

Virginia doesn't matter because they are playing VaTech. One is automatically out. I think North Texas wins.

 

[storrsroars]

fwiw, Jerry Palm has us in the Boca Raton vs Rutty. Hero Sports also has us in Boca vs JMU. 247 Sports has us in Cure vs Vandy.

 

[Briuconn]

In your math for bowl eligible teams vs non-eligible teams for spots, are you accounting that 4 of eligible teams will lose in a play in game for the playoff, so they will not reach a bowl?

 

[shizzle787]

In your math for bowl eligible teams vs non-eligible teams for spots, are you accounting that 4 of eligible teams will lose in a play in game for the playoff, so they will not reach a bowl?

82 teams will play in the postseason. 12 will play in the CFP. 70 will play in regular bowl games. Teams who lose in the CFP are done. They don't play an additional bowl game after.

 

[ZooCougar]

Uh oh.

 

[UCFBfan]

It'd be only fitting for us to finally have a good season the same year it seems everyone else is having a decent season. Or is it just so much mediocrity that there are a bunch of 7-4/6-5 teams?

 

[Patman]

That is ridiculous. Athletic directors may not be on the team selection committee for the bowl game but there is a lot of networking and politicking that gets teams into bowl games. Just waiting for someone to reach out to us is how we end up playing against teams that most people in Connecticut have never heard of (e.g. Marshall)

No, there really isn't. A lot of these bowl bids are fixed and while they may lobby in the end the bowls are the one who get to decide.

===

Let's say this is true. What's our offer? I know people here are loathe to trade basketball games for football games.

 

[Patman]

It'd be only fitting for us to finally have a good season the same year it seems everyone else is having a decent season. Or is it just so much mediocrity that there are a bunch of 7-4/6-5 teams?

i mean you're floating on a knife edge. A good well placed sneeze could switch teams year to year from 5-7 to 6-6 and vice versa

 

[UConnJim]

Uh oh.

This is a simplistic view of bowl spots as the reality is very complex. And, I don't think anyone can easily figure out where or if UConn will play in a bowl.

The bowl tie-ins are complicated by things like the old Pac 12 schools (in Big 10m Big 12, and ACC) Washington, Colorado, Cal, USC,... are eligible for this year's Pac 12 bowls. For example, Big 10 has 7 bowl tie-ins and 12 bowl eligible schools. But, you could get 4 playoff spots and USC and Washington going to Pac 12 bowls and then the Big 10 has an extra spot. And, there are bowls tied into "G5 schools", but conferences have some guarantees. Conference USA has 4 bowl tie-ins plus slots in the G5 pool, but they will only have 4 bowl eligible schools. Plus, the bowl situation will be impacted by schools going to the playoff as well.

 

[Patman]

This is a simplistic view of bowl spots as the reality is very complex. And, I don't think anyone can easily figure out where or if UConn will play in a bowl.

The bowl tie-ins are complicated by things like the old Pac 12 schools (in Big 10m Big 12, and ACC) Washington, Colorado, Cal, USC,... are eligible for this year's Pac 12 bowls. For example, Big 10 has 7 bowl tie-ins and 12 bowl eligible schools. But, you could get 4 playoff spots and USC and Washington going to Pac 12 bowls and then the Big 10 has an extra spot. And, there are bowls tied into "G5 schools", but conferences have some guarantees. Conference USA has 4 bowl tie-ins plus slots in the G5 pool, but they will only have 4 bowl eligible schools. Plus, the bowl situation will be impacted by schools going to the playoff as well.

I think the first question is whether or not there will be a home for us. I don't even know what "G5 pool" is but I can accept its a new innovation, if we're not part of it then we sit outside and hope there aren't enough schools that qualify. If we are part of it then finishing 8-4 basically, I would imagine, guarantee us a place. If they have to choose on record we're 8-4, if they choose on prestige we bring better numbers than most as a national brand.

 

[Stinger92860]

Nut sack possibility?

 

[UConnTrumbull]

41 teams are out. We need 11 six-loss teams to lose next week.

Six loss teams:

UL Monroe
Coastal Carolina
Auburn
Oregon State
New Mexico
WMU
EMU
MSU
Wisconsin
Kansas
Cincy
NC State
North Texas
Virginia
Virginia Tech

So basically if I put ten bucks on each of these to win I’m basically making bank because it will screw us over

 

[ZooCougar]

This is a simplistic view of bowl spots as the reality is very complex. And, I don't think anyone can easily figure out where or if UConn will play in a bowl.

The bowl tie-ins are complicated by things like the old Pac 12 schools (in Big 10m Big 12, and ACC) Washington, Colorado, Cal, USC,... are eligible for this year's Pac 12 bowls. For example, Big 10 has 7 bowl tie-ins and 12 bowl eligible schools. But, you could get 4 playoff spots and USC and Washington going to Pac 12 bowls and then the Big 10 has an extra spot. And, there are bowls tied into "G5 schools", but conferences have some guarantees. Conference USA has 4 bowl tie-ins plus slots in the G5 pool, but they will only have 4 bowl eligible schools. Plus, the bowl situation will be impacted by schools going to the playoff as well.

From the perspective of the number of teams that are bowl eligible and the # of teams that could be versus the number of known berths, it’s 100% spot on.

 

[ScottVib]

Keep in mind for an at large bid the 7+ win teams (no bonuses for winning more than 7) have to be picked before the 6-6 teams. That is not true for bids that are following arranged contracts (also keep in mind former Pac-12 teams are in the Pac-12 bowl pool).

Here is what I see (feel free to correct anything I might have mistaken):

The ACC has 11 bids... but with 2 teams projected to playoff (SMU & Miami; plus Notre Dame) that leaves 9 eligible teams (Cal is in the Pac-12 pool) & one potentially eligible team for those bids. That should leave one bid open. Now the bid has a backup deal with the AAC....

The AAC has 8 bids... but with 7 eligible teams, they need their one potentially eligible team to fill their allotment; without considering the ACC deal (which would actually get filled first and leave a backup). Assume they fill there spots.

The Big Ten has 7 bids... they have 4 teams projected into the playoff, leaving 6 teams eligible (remember Washington & USC are in the Pac-12 pool) and two potentially eligible. Assume one of the two potentials wins.

Big XII has 7 bids... they have 1 team projected into the playoff, but they come out of the Pac-12 pool. That leaves 7 eligible teams for their 7 spots and two more potentially eligible. They're filled.

CUSA has 7 bids (believe it or not). They only have 4 teams eligible this year. They will have 3 extras. Meaning we're at four open so far.

MAC has 6 bids and will have 7 eligible teams. They're full.

MWC has 6 bids and will have one team in the playoff field. That leaves 4 teams eligible with one potentially eligible. They will have at least one open bid. Five open bids.

Pac-12 has 6 bids and one (Arizona State) projected to the playoff. That leaves them with 5 eligible teams for 6 spots with Oregon State needing to beat Boise on the road to fill it. Boise has something to play for, it's not happening. That puts 6 open bids so far.

The SEC has 9 bids and 3 projected to the playoff. That still leaves them with 10 teams eligible and another (Auburn) potentially eligible. They're full.

The Sun Belt has 5 bids and 7 teams eligible, with 3 more potentially eligible. They're full.

So based on the alignment (that I dug out of the conference media guides, plus other sources) there should be 6 potentially open bids. UConn looks like one of only a few 7+ win teams that will be in the pool of at large selections... meaning UConn will most likely get a spot.


One other thing I noticed, while many bowls have standings for the conferences they're aligned with the Boca Raton bowl, part of the G5 pool has something none of the others do. They have an Independent standing.... except that Independent Standing has only one team listed, UConn. Not Notre Dame, not UMass. Just UConn. I suspect Boca has their eye pretty strongly on the Huskies.

 

[Gburyhusky]

Keep in mind for an at large bid the 7+ win teams (no bonuses for winning more than 7) have to be picked before the 6-6 teams. That is not true for bids that are following arranged contracts (also keep in mind former Pac-12 teams are in the Pac-12 bowl pool).

Here is what I see (feel free to correct anything I might have mistaken):

The ACC has 11 bids... but with 2 teams projected to playoff (SMU & Miami; plus Notre Dame) that leaves 9 eligible teams (Cal is in the Pac-12 pool) & one potentially eligible team for those bids. That should leave one bid open. Now the bid has a backup deal with the AAC....

The AAC has 8 bids... but with 7 eligible teams, they need their one potentially eligible team to fill their allotment; without considering the ACC deal (which would actually get filled first and leave a backup). Assume they fill there spots.

The Big Ten has 7 bids... they have 4 teams projected into the playoff, leaving 6 teams eligible (remember Washington & USC are in the Pac-12 pool) and two potentially eligible. Assume one of the two potentials wins.

Big XII has 7 bids... they have 1 team projected into the playoff, but they come out of the Pac-12 pool. That leaves 7 eligible teams for their 7 spots and two more potentially eligible. They're filled.

CUSA has 7 bids (believe it or not). They only have 4 teams eligible this year. They will have 3 extras. Meaning we're at four open so far.

MAC has 6 bids and will have 7 eligible teams. They're full.

MWC has 6 bids and will have one team in the playoff field. That leaves 4 teams eligible with one potentially eligible. They will have at least one open bid. Five open bids.

Pac-12 has 6 bids and one (Arizona State) projected to the playoff. That leaves them with 5 eligible teams for 6 spots with Oregon State needing to beat Boise on the road to fill it. Boise has something to play for, it's not happening. That puts 6 open bids so far.

The SEC has 9 bids and 3 projected to the playoff. That still leaves them with 10 teams eligible and another (Auburn) potentially eligible. They're full.

The Sun Belt has 5 bids and 7 teams eligible, with 3 more potentially eligible. They're full.

So based on the alignment (that I dug out of the conference media guides, plus other sources) there should be 6 potentially open bids. UConn looks like one of only a few 7+ win teams that will be in the pool of at large selections... meaning UConn will most likely get a spot.


One other thing I noticed, while many bowls have standings for the conferences they're aligned with the Boca Raton bowl, part of the G5 pool has something none of the others do. They have an Independent standing.... except that Independent Standing has only one team listed, UConn. Not Notre Dame, not UMass. Just UConn. I suspect Boca has their eye pretty strongly on the Huskies.

Great analysis, thank you. When you mention "at large" bid, does that refer to specific bowl games which have slots awarded "at large", or bowls with conference tie ins where the conference can't fill the slot, or both? I think I find the bowl dynamics almost as interesting as the games themselves. Hopefully it falls in our favor.

 

[ScottVib]

At large would be either... but I do not see any bowls this year that don't have tie-ins for both of their spots. The spots I see above are all from conferences failing to fill their allotment.

 

[RSTuthill]

Keep in mind for an at large bid the 7+ win teams (no bonuses for winning more than 7) have to be picked before the 6-6 teams. That is not true for bids that are following arranged contracts (also keep in mind former Pac-12 teams are in the Pac-12 bowl pool).

Here is what I see (feel free to correct anything I might have mistaken):

The ACC has 11 bids... but with 2 teams projected to playoff (SMU & Miami; plus Notre Dame) that leaves 9 eligible teams (Cal is in the Pac-12 pool) & one potentially eligible team for those bids. That should leave one bid open. Now the bid has a backup deal with the AAC....

The AAC has 8 bids... but with 7 eligible teams, they need their one potentially eligible team to fill their allotment; without considering the ACC deal (which would actually get filled first and leave a backup). Assume they fill there spots.

The Big Ten has 7 bids... they have 4 teams projected into the playoff, leaving 6 teams eligible (remember Washington & USC are in the Pac-12 pool) and two potentially eligible. Assume one of the two potentials wins.

Big XII has 7 bids... they have 1 team projected into the playoff, but they come out of the Pac-12 pool. That leaves 7 eligible teams for their 7 spots and two more potentially eligible. They're filled.

CUSA has 7 bids (believe it or not). They only have 4 teams eligible this year. They will have 3 extras. Meaning we're at four open so far.

MAC has 6 bids and will have 7 eligible teams. They're full.

MWC has 6 bids and will have one team in the playoff field. That leaves 4 teams eligible with one potentially eligible. They will have at least one open bid. Five open bids.

Pac-12 has 6 bids and one (Arizona State) projected to the playoff. That leaves them with 5 eligible teams for 6 spots with Oregon State needing to beat Boise on the road to fill it. Boise has something to play for, it's not happening. That puts 6 open bids so far.

The SEC has 9 bids and 3 projected to the playoff. That still leaves them with 10 teams eligible and another (Auburn) potentially eligible. They're full.

The Sun Belt has 5 bids and 7 teams eligible, with 3 more potentially eligible. They're full.

So based on the alignment (that I dug out of the conference media guides, plus other sources) there should be 6 potentially open bids. UConn looks like one of only a few 7+ win teams that will be in the pool of at large selections... meaning UConn will most likely get a spot.


One other thing I noticed, while many bowls have standings for the conferences they're aligned with the Boca Raton bowl, part of the G5 pool has something none of the others do. They have an Independent standing.... except that Independent Standing has only one team listed, UConn. Not Notre Dame, not UMass. Just UConn. I suspect Boca has their eye pretty strongly on the Huskies.

Although I will be skiing, I love your analysis.