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Bowl math

UConnJim said:
This is a simplistic view of bowl spots as the reality is very complex. And, I don't think anyone can easily figure out where or if UConn will play in a bowl.

The bowl tie-ins are complicated by things like the old Pac 12 schools (in Big 10m Big 12, and ACC) Washington, Colorado, Cal, USC,... are eligible for this year's Pac 12 bowls. For example, Big 10 has 7 bowl tie-ins and 12 bowl eligible schools. But, you could get 4 playoff spots and USC and Washington going to Pac 12 bowls and then the Big 10 has an extra spot. And, there are bowls tied into "G5 schools", but conferences have some guarantees. Conference USA has 4 bowl tie-ins plus slots in the G5 pool, but they will only have 4 bowl eligible schools. Plus, the bowl situation will be impacted by schools going to the playoff as well.
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From the perspective of the number of teams that are bowl eligible and the # of teams that could be versus the number of known berths, it’s 100% spot on.
 
Keep in mind for an at large bid the 7+ win teams (no bonuses for winning more than 7) have to be picked before the 6-6 teams. That is not true for bids that are following arranged contracts (also keep in mind former Pac-12 teams are in the Pac-12 bowl pool).

Here is what I see (feel free to correct anything I might have mistaken):

The ACC has 11 bids... but with 2 teams projected to playoff (SMU & Miami; plus Notre Dame) that leaves 9 eligible teams (Cal is in the Pac-12 pool) & one potentially eligible team for those bids. That should leave one bid open. Now the bid has a backup deal with the AAC....

The AAC has 8 bids... but with 7 eligible teams, they need their one potentially eligible team to fill their allotment; without considering the ACC deal (which would actually get filled first and leave a backup). Assume they fill there spots.

The Big Ten has 7 bids... they have 4 teams projected into the playoff, leaving 6 teams eligible (remember Washington & USC are in the Pac-12 pool) and two potentially eligible. Assume one of the two potentials wins.

Big XII has 7 bids... they have 1 team projected into the playoff, but they come out of the Pac-12 pool. That leaves 7 eligible teams for their 7 spots and two more potentially eligible. They're filled.

CUSA has 7 bids (believe it or not). They only have 4 teams eligible this year. They will have 3 extras. Meaning we're at four open so far.

MAC has 6 bids and will have 7 eligible teams. They're full.

MWC has 6 bids and will have one team in the playoff field. That leaves 4 teams eligible with one potentially eligible. They will have at least one open bid. Five open bids.

Pac-12 has 6 bids and one (Arizona State) projected to the playoff. That leaves them with 5 eligible teams for 6 spots with Oregon State needing to beat Boise on the road to fill it. Boise has something to play for, it's not happening. That puts 6 open bids so far.

The SEC has 9 bids and 3 projected to the playoff. That still leaves them with 10 teams eligible and another (Auburn) potentially eligible. They're full.

The Sun Belt has 5 bids and 7 teams eligible, with 3 more potentially eligible. They're full.

So based on the alignment (that I dug out of the conference media guides, plus other sources) there should be 6 potentially open bids. UConn looks like one of only a few 7+ win teams that will be in the pool of at large selections... meaning UConn will most likely get a spot.


One other thing I noticed, while many bowls have standings for the conferences they're aligned with the Boca Raton bowl, part of the G5 pool has something none of the others do. They have an Independent standing.... except that Independent Standing has only one team listed, UConn. Not Notre Dame, not UMass. Just UConn. I suspect Boca has their eye pretty strongly on the Huskies.
 
ScottVib said:
Keep in mind for an at large bid the 7+ win teams (no bonuses for winning more than 7) have to be picked before the 6-6 teams. That is not true for bids that are following arranged contracts (also keep in mind former Pac-12 teams are in the Pac-12 bowl pool).

Here is what I see (feel free to correct anything I might have mistaken):

The ACC has 11 bids... but with 2 teams projected to playoff (SMU & Miami; plus Notre Dame) that leaves 9 eligible teams (Cal is in the Pac-12 pool) & one potentially eligible team for those bids. That should leave one bid open. Now the bid has a backup deal with the AAC....

The AAC has 8 bids... but with 7 eligible teams, they need their one potentially eligible team to fill their allotment; without considering the ACC deal (which would actually get filled first and leave a backup). Assume they fill there spots.

The Big Ten has 7 bids... they have 4 teams projected into the playoff, leaving 6 teams eligible (remember Washington & USC are in the Pac-12 pool) and two potentially eligible. Assume one of the two potentials wins.

Big XII has 7 bids... they have 1 team projected into the playoff, but they come out of the Pac-12 pool. That leaves 7 eligible teams for their 7 spots and two more potentially eligible. They're filled.

CUSA has 7 bids (believe it or not). They only have 4 teams eligible this year. They will have 3 extras. Meaning we're at four open so far.

MAC has 6 bids and will have 7 eligible teams. They're full.

MWC has 6 bids and will have one team in the playoff field. That leaves 4 teams eligible with one potentially eligible. They will have at least one open bid. Five open bids.

Pac-12 has 6 bids and one (Arizona State) projected to the playoff. That leaves them with 5 eligible teams for 6 spots with Oregon State needing to beat Boise on the road to fill it. Boise has something to play for, it's not happening. That puts 6 open bids so far.

The SEC has 9 bids and 3 projected to the playoff. That still leaves them with 10 teams eligible and another (Auburn) potentially eligible. They're full.

The Sun Belt has 5 bids and 7 teams eligible, with 3 more potentially eligible. They're full.

So based on the alignment (that I dug out of the conference media guides, plus other sources) there should be 6 potentially open bids. UConn looks like one of only a few 7+ win teams that will be in the pool of at large selections... meaning UConn will most likely get a spot.


One other thing I noticed, while many bowls have standings for the conferences they're aligned with the Boca Raton bowl, part of the G5 pool has something none of the others do. They have an Independent standing.... except that Independent Standing has only one team listed, UConn. Not Notre Dame, not UMass. Just UConn. I suspect Boca has their eye pretty strongly on the Huskies.
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Great analysis, thank you. When you mention "at large" bid, does that refer to specific bowl games which have slots awarded "at large", or bowls with conference tie ins where the conference can't fill the slot, or both? I think I find the bowl dynamics almost as interesting as the games themselves. Hopefully it falls in our favor.
 
At large would be either... but I do not see any bowls this year that don't have tie-ins for both of their spots. The spots I see above are all from conferences failing to fill their allotment.
 
ScottVib said:
Keep in mind for an at large bid the 7+ win teams (no bonuses for winning more than 7) have to be picked before the 6-6 teams. That is not true for bids that are following arranged contracts (also keep in mind former Pac-12 teams are in the Pac-12 bowl pool).

Here is what I see (feel free to correct anything I might have mistaken):

The ACC has 11 bids... but with 2 teams projected to playoff (SMU & Miami; plus Notre Dame) that leaves 9 eligible teams (Cal is in the Pac-12 pool) & one potentially eligible team for those bids. That should leave one bid open. Now the bid has a backup deal with the AAC....

The AAC has 8 bids... but with 7 eligible teams, they need their one potentially eligible team to fill their allotment; without considering the ACC deal (which would actually get filled first and leave a backup). Assume they fill there spots.

The Big Ten has 7 bids... they have 4 teams projected into the playoff, leaving 6 teams eligible (remember Washington & USC are in the Pac-12 pool) and two potentially eligible. Assume one of the two potentials wins.

Big XII has 7 bids... they have 1 team projected into the playoff, but they come out of the Pac-12 pool. That leaves 7 eligible teams for their 7 spots and two more potentially eligible. They're filled.

CUSA has 7 bids (believe it or not). They only have 4 teams eligible this year. They will have 3 extras. Meaning we're at four open so far.

MAC has 6 bids and will have 7 eligible teams. They're full.

MWC has 6 bids and will have one team in the playoff field. That leaves 4 teams eligible with one potentially eligible. They will have at least one open bid. Five open bids.

Pac-12 has 6 bids and one (Arizona State) projected to the playoff. That leaves them with 5 eligible teams for 6 spots with Oregon State needing to beat Boise on the road to fill it. Boise has something to play for, it's not happening. That puts 6 open bids so far.

The SEC has 9 bids and 3 projected to the playoff. That still leaves them with 10 teams eligible and another (Auburn) potentially eligible. They're full.

The Sun Belt has 5 bids and 7 teams eligible, with 3 more potentially eligible. They're full.

So based on the alignment (that I dug out of the conference media guides, plus other sources) there should be 6 potentially open bids. UConn looks like one of only a few 7+ win teams that will be in the pool of at large selections... meaning UConn will most likely get a spot.


One other thing I noticed, while many bowls have standings for the conferences they're aligned with the Boca Raton bowl, part of the G5 pool has something none of the others do. They have an Independent standing.... except that Independent Standing has only one team listed, UConn. Not Notre Dame, not UMass. Just UConn. I suspect Boca has their eye pretty strongly on the Huskies.
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Although I will be skiing, I love your analysis.
 
ScottVib said:
Keep in mind for an at large bid the 7+ win teams (no bonuses for winning more than 7) have to be picked before the 6-6 teams. That is not true for bids that are following arranged contracts (also keep in mind former Pac-12 teams are in the Pac-12 bowl pool).
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Per wikipedia, that rule was removed.

Starting with the 2011–12 bowl season, the rule that required the selection of seven-win teams before any 6–6 teams was eliminated.
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18.7.2.2 Contest Status. [FBS] A contest shall be licensed only if it serves the purpose of providing a national contest between deserving teams. A “deserving team” shall be defined as one that has won a number of games against Football Bowl Subdivision opponents that is equal to or greater than the number of its overall losses. Tie games do not count in determining a team’s won-lost record. Further, when forfeiture of a regularseason football victory is required by the Committee on Infractions or a conference, or is self-imposed by an institution as a result of a violation of NCAA rules, neither of the competing institutions may count that contest in satisfying the definition of a “deserving team.” (Revised: 10/18/89, 10/12/93, 4/20/99, 12/15/06, 4/29/10 effective 8/1/10, 7/30/10)
18.7.2.2.1 Exception—Football Championship Subdivision Opponent. [FBS] Each year, a Football Bowl Subdivision institution may count one victory against a Football Championship Subdivision opponent toward meeting the definition of a “deserving team,” provided the opponent has averaged 90 percent of the permissible maximum number of grants-in-aid per year in football during a rolling two-year period. (Adopted: 10/28/97 effective 8/1/98, Revised: 4/28/05, 12/15/06, 4/29/10 effective 8/1/10, 7/30/10)
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ScottVib said:
Keep in mind for an at large bid the 7+ win teams (no bonuses for winning more than 7) have to be picked before the 6-6 teams. That is not true for bids that are following arranged contracts (also keep in mind former Pac-12 teams are in the Pac-12 bowl pool).

Here is what I see (feel free to correct anything I might have mistaken):

The ACC has 11 bids... but with 2 teams projected to playoff (SMU & Miami; plus Notre Dame) that leaves 9 eligible teams (Cal is in the Pac-12 pool) & one potentially eligible team for those bids. That should leave one bid open. Now the bid has a backup deal with the AAC....

The AAC has 8 bids... but with 7 eligible teams, they need their one potentially eligible team to fill their allotment; without considering the ACC deal (which would actually get filled first and leave a backup). Assume they fill there spots.

The Big Ten has 7 bids... they have 4 teams projected into the playoff, leaving 6 teams eligible (remember Washington & USC are in the Pac-12 pool) and two potentially eligible. Assume one of the two potentials wins.

Big XII has 7 bids... they have 1 team projected into the playoff, but they come out of the Pac-12 pool. That leaves 7 eligible teams for their 7 spots and two more potentially eligible. They're filled.

CUSA has 7 bids (believe it or not). They only have 4 teams eligible this year. They will have 3 extras. Meaning we're at four open so far.

MAC has 6 bids and will have 7 eligible teams. They're full.

MWC has 6 bids and will have one team in the playoff field. That leaves 4 teams eligible with one potentially eligible. They will have at least one open bid. Five open bids.

Pac-12 has 6 bids and one (Arizona State) projected to the playoff. That leaves them with 5 eligible teams for 6 spots with Oregon State needing to beat Boise on the road to fill it. Boise has something to play for, it's not happening. That puts 6 open bids so far.

The SEC has 9 bids and 3 projected to the playoff. That still leaves them with 10 teams eligible and another (Auburn) potentially eligible. They're full.

The Sun Belt has 5 bids and 7 teams eligible, with 3 more potentially eligible. They're full.

So based on the alignment (that I dug out of the conference media guides, plus other sources) there should be 6 potentially open bids. UConn looks like one of only a few 7+ win teams that will be in the pool of at large selections... meaning UConn will most likely get a spot.


One other thing I noticed, while many bowls have standings for the conferences they're aligned with the Boca Raton bowl, part of the G5 pool has something none of the others do. They have an Independent standing.... except that Independent Standing has only one team listed, UConn. Not Notre Dame, not UMass. Just UConn. I suspect Boca has their eye pretty strongly on the Huskies.
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Where did you find this because another poster on another site said the same thing. I hope this is true because if it is, I think we are golden.
 
I did find it on a different site that the seven win preference was still in place, for non-aligned bowls (at large bids), but having reviewed the NCAA manual for bowl games and the source bylaws, I believe @pepband99 is 100% correct, there is no longer a requirement as the definition of "deserving teams" has been changed from having more wins than losses to having as many wins as losses.
 
No offense to some of these orher teams but if some random bowl can dictate selection then we will get in over many of the G5 schools on name alone. If we are locked out contractually then so be it.
 
TMB4405 said:
No offense to some of these orher teams but if some random bowl can dictate selection then we will get in over many of the G5 schools on name alone. If we are locked out contractually then so be it.
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This... I tend to believe that UConn is pretty well positioned when compared to the 6 win teams that will come out of G5 leagues; the 6-win SEC teams would be what would "scare" me from a knocked out perspective, but as of the end of last week there looked to be enough "open" bids that they wouldn't get them all.
 
ScottVib said:
I did find it on a different site that the seven win preference was still in place, for non-aligned bowls (at large bids), but having reviewed the NCAA manual for bowl games and the source bylaws, I believe @pepband99 is 100% correct, there is no longer a requirement as the definition of "deserving teams" has been changed from having more wins than losses to having as many wins as losses.
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UConn will be in a bowl. Especially if they end up 8-4. The brand is too big to ignore even with MBB's recent problems. Where there is money to be made, someone will want to make it.
 
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RSTuthill said:
UConn will be in a bowl. Especially if they end up 8-4. The brand is too big to ignore even with MBB's recent problems. Where there is money to be made, someone will want to make it.
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MBB has no recent problems outside of CT. It's football season and not a single decision maker is thinking about the November hoops games. To those who decide bowl/conference/tv alignments, UConn is a two-time defending basketball champion brand, nothing more, nothing less.
 
ScottVib said:
This... I tend to believe that UConn is pretty well positioned when compared to the 6 win teams that will come out of G5 leagues; the 6-win SEC teams would be what would "scare" me from a knocked out perspective, but as of the end of last week there looked to be enough "open" bids that they wouldn't get them all.
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It would be a crazy kick in the balls to watch a 6 win SEC team play their third string against Miami (OH) while we sit on the sidelines.

For this, and for several other reasons, UMass must be crushed.
 
We will make a bowl for a few reasons:
  • The team has a strong record, exceeding the .500 win mark.
  • There are bowls that will welcome us to play there.
  • The fan base is dedicated and travels well.
  • The university is a national brand with a winning athletic department.
  • We have a great story, from terrible to pretty good, in a short timeframe.
UConn in a bowl will generate interest, which means it will generate revenue. Thanks to that, UConn football is bowling this year.
 
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Vowelguy said:
We need 9 of the 12 to lose to guarantee a spot for all 6 or + teams.

1) Wisconsin goes down!
2) Oregon St loses !


7 of 10 remaining:
1) cinc
2) Kansas
3) unt
4) coastal car
5) app st
6) auburn
7) ULm
8) michst
9) NCSt
10) New Mexico
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I will be rooting for Auburn just to see the Alabama fans lose it.
 
Vowelguy said:
We need 9 of the 12 to lose to guarantee a spot for all 6 or + teams.

1) Wisconsin goes down!
2) Oregon St loses !


7 of 10 remaining:
1) cinc
2) Kansas
3) unt
4) coastal car
5) app st
6) auburn
7) ULm
8) michst
9) NCSt
10) New Mexico
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So bowl-eligible Saturday games to keep an eye on:

12pm
Kansas (5-6) at Baylor (7-4), ESPN2
Louisiana (9-2) at UL Monroe (5-6), ESPNU
North Texas (5-6) at Temple (3-8), ESPN+

2pm
Coastal Carolina (5-6) at Georgia St. (3-8), ESPN+

3:30pm
Auburn (5-6) at Alabama (8-3), ABC/ESPN+
Rutgers (6-5) at Michigan St. (5-6), FS1
NC State (5-6) at N. Carolina (6-5), ACCN

6pm
TCU (7-4) at Cincinnati (5-6), ESPN+
Appalachian St. (5-5) at GA Southern (7-4), ESPN+

11pm
New Mexico (5-6) at Hawaii (4-7)
 
BugsyCT said:
So bowl-eligible Saturday games to keep an eye on:

12pm
Kansas (5-6) at Baylor (7-4), ESPN2
Louisiana (9-2) at UL Monroe (5-6), ESPNU
North Texas (5-6) at Temple (3-8), ESPN+

2pm
Coastal Carolina (5-6) at Georgia St. (3-8), ESPN+

3:30pm
Auburn (5-6) at Alabama (8-3), ABC/ESPN+
Rutgers (6-5) at Michigan St. (5-6), FS1
NC State (5-6) at N. Carolina (6-5), ACCN

6pm
TCU (7-4) at Cincinnati (5-6), ESPN+
Appalachian St. (5-5) at GA Southern (7-4), ESPN+

11pm
New Mexico (5-6) at Hawaii (4-7)
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Tough day to be a UConn fan - cheering for bama, Rutgers, unc, Baylor, temple and other dregs
 
To give Saturday more focus, not all 6-6 teams are anywhere near the same in terms of being threats to take an open bowl spot from us. The P-4 schools — Auburn, Sparta, NC State — are. Some of the G-5 schools —UL Monroe and North Texas for example — are much less of a threat to take an open bowl slot from us.

That having been said, I’m not worrying about any of this until after our game with UMass is over.
 
businesslawyer said:
To give Saturday more focus, not all 6-6 teams are anywhere near the same in terms of being threats to take an open bowl spot from us. The P-4 schools — Auburn, Sparta, NC State — are. Some of the G-5 schools —UL Monroe and North Texas for example — are much less of a threat to take an open bowl slot from us.

That having been said, I’m not worrying about any of this until after our game with UMass is over.
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we win they invent the weedeater tortilla bowl in Albuquerque new mexico for us. if we lose, they don't.

Weedeater tortillas, the only tortillas made for your dogs.
 
BugsyCT said:
So bowl-eligible Saturday games to keep an eye on:

12pm
Kansas (5-6) at Baylor (7-4), ESPN2
Louisiana (9-2) at UL Monroe (5-6), ESPNU
North Texas (5-6) at Temple (3-8), ESPN+

2pm
Coastal Carolina (5-6) at Georgia St. (3-8), ESPN+

3:30pm
Auburn (5-6) at Alabama (8-3), ABC/ESPN+
Rutgers (6-5) at Michigan St. (5-6), FS1
NC State (5-6) at N. Carolina (6-5), ACCN

6pm
TCU (7-4) at Cincinnati (5-6), ESPN+
Appalachian St. (5-5) at GA Southern (7-4), ESPN+

11pm
New Mexico (5-6) at Hawaii (4-7)
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+10.5 Auburn
+10 ULM
+3 NCSt
+3 Cincinnati
+2.5 AppSt
+1 Coastal

-1 Kansas
-1.5 Mich St
- 3 New Mexico
-11 UNT
 
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Vowelguy said:
+10.5 Auburn
+10 ULM
+3 NCSt
+3 Cincinnati
+2.5 AppSt
+1 Coastal

-1 Kansas
-1.5 Mich St
- 3 New Mexico
-11 UNT
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Kansas and ULM lose but UNT wins
Need 5 of 7 to lose
 
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