Bowl math | The Boneyard
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Bowl math

shizzle787

shizzle787

King Shizzle DCCLXXXVII of the Cesspool
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With 82 schools going bowling (including the CFP participants) and 134 schools in FBS, we need 52 schools to have at least 7 losses to go bowling.

Currently, 30 have already hit the 7 loss mark.

The following schools have six losses:

Wake Forest
Kansas
Houston
UCF
Arizona
Utah
UCLA
MSU
Northwestern
Maryland
La Tech
New Mexico
Oregon State
Auburn
Kentucky
Old Dominion

The following schools have five losses:

USF
UTSA
North Texas
Virginia
Virginia Tech
BC
NC State
Cal
WVU
Cincy
Michigan
Wisconsin
USC
Nebraska
WMU
EMU
Fresno State
Arkansas
Florida
Oklahoma
Coastal Carolina
App State
South Alabama
UL Monroe
 
Are you implying that we will be the last team picked for a bowl?
 
Things work a bit differently these days but we stll will be very far down the list of schools selected

As we don't have a bowl tie-in we are part of the pool. On the plus side, there are about ten bowl slots that are selected from the pool of bowl eligible schools Additionally as both the B1B ans SEC normally have enough tie-ins to accomodate all bowl eligible members and each appears to be sending four schools to the playoffs, a couple more slots should become availbke for the pool.

I would not be surprised if half of the current six loss schools lose their next game and it is likely that quite a few with five losses lose their next two. What we need to be concerned with is how many of the five loss schools are scheduled to play each other as that will assure one getting to six wins.

Things should be quite a bit clearer in a week but we may not know until we are selected if we're going bowling.
 
shizzle787 said:
We don't have a bowl contract so we will be the last team picked.
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Not necessarily... UConn would probably go ahead of a lot of G5 teams whose conferences run out of bowl bids and get forced into the at large pool. They'd also go ahead of 6-win teams in the at large pool regardless (and P4 conferences rarely run out of bids)

Edit to add:

MAC has 6 guaranteed spots; 4 of their own and 2 spots from the G5 pool
C-USA has 4 guaranteed spots and potentially 4-5 spots from the G5 pool
AAC has 7 guaranteed spots 3 of their own and 4 spots from the G5 pool
MWC has 6 guaranteed spot; 5 of it's own and 1 spot in the G5 pool
The Pac-2 has 6 spots... which include the eligibility for all former Pac-12 members regardless of current conference affiliation
Sun Belt has 5 spots guarantee; 2 of its own and 3 spots in the G5 pool
Army has a guaranteed spot in the Independence Bowl

The G5 pool is based on match-ups, geography, team availability
 
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FfldCntyFan said:
Things work a bit differently these days but we stll will be very far down the list of schools selected

As we don't have a bowl tie-in we are part of the pool. On the plus side, there are about ten bowl slots that are selected from the pool of bowl eligible schools Additionally as both the B1B ans SEC normally have enough tie-ins to accomodate all bowl eligible members and each appears to be sending four schools to the playoffs, a couple more slots should become availbke for the pool.

I would not be surprised if half of the current six loss schools lose their next game and it is likely that quite a few with five losses lose their next two. What we need to be concerned with is how many of the five loss schools are scheduled to play each other as that will assure one getting to six wins.

Things should be quite a bit clearer in a week but we may not know until we are selected if we're going bowling.
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We will be far down the list. But, you can’t count on us being at the bottom. A bowl that has a tie in with, say, the American, with CUSA being used as a back up, if it can’t fill it from those two conferences is not required (or likely) to pick a 6-6 MAC team over us.
 
shizzle787 said:
We don't have a bowl contract so we will be the last team picked.
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Not the case. We weren’t the last team picked in 2022. There are also some “unaffiliated” bowls. Boca Raton is CUSA vs another G5. That Alabama one is something similar. I think Sunbelt vs G5.

Then there are the opportunities to “trade.” You might have a potential replay or possibly a local team scheduled to go somewhere who is attractive to a local bowl. I think that’s why BC ended up in Fenway last year. And don’t forget a couple of years ago there were c 1-2 teams who qualified above the number of bowls. ESPN created a bowl for them. IIRC that was the first game played in Frisco (the Texas One, not the the place with cable cars.). I’m not the least bit worried about our bowl prospects.
 
freescooter said:
Not the case. We weren’t the last team picked in 2022. There are also some “unaffiliated” bowls. Boca Raton is CUSA vs another G5. That Alabama one is something similar. I think Sunbelt vs G5.

Then there are the opportunities to “trade.” You might have a potential replay or possibly a local team scheduled to go somewhere who is attractive to a local bowl. I think that’s why BC ended up in Fenway last year. And don’t forget a couple of years ago there were c 1-2 teams who qualified above the number of bowls. ESPN created a bowl for them. IIRC that was the first game played in Frisco (the Texas One, not the the place with cable cars.). I’m not the least bit worried about our bowl prospects.
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Lots of horse trading. I think we will be fine.

We could go 7-5 or 10-2 and still end up in the same place though. With the way the bowl system is and not having a conference things are weird.
 
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Gburyhusky said:
The article says its possible some 6 win teams will miss out, we have 7.
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Never said I thought it would happen, just saying that the with all these teams possibly hitting 6 wins, we could get passed over. They don't care how many wins over 6 you have when you have no affiliations to a bowl.

In the end I feel confident that we're fine. Just saying there's always that chance.
 
AAC snapshot currently has 5 teams with winning records. ECU last at 6-4 overall would prefer one more win.
With 7 bids they also have 3 teams at 5-5 competing for 2 spots.

USF Plays Tulsa and Rice
UTSA plays Temple and Army
North Texas plays ECU and Temple

USF with a good shot at going 7-5.
UTSA probably most vulnerable followed by North Texas. But Temple might mail it in by the last weekend to get NT to 6-6.
 
Root for Buffalo tonight vs. E. Michigan. A Buffalo win eliminates one MAC team as E. Michigan would go to 5-6 with their final game vs W. Michigan who is now also 5-6. If E. Michigan wins tonight, they could then lose next week and both E. and W. Michigan would be bowl eligible.
 
I would assume that some of those schools on the list of 5 and 6 loss teams would be playing each other.
 
Marbles90 said:
Root for Buffalo tonight vs. E. Michigan. A Buffalo win eliminates one MAC team as E. Michigan would go to 5-6 with their final game vs W. Michigan who is now also 5-6. If E. Michigan wins tonight, they could then lose next week and both E. and W. Michigan would be bowl eligible.
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Buffalo wins. So, E. Michigan (5-6) vs W. Michigan (5-6) next week and only one can become bowl eligible.
 
Gburyhusky said:
It seems statistically unlikely that a 7 win team won't get a bowl based on the history of these things. It will be moot anyway because we will have 8 wins.
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and that will not matter if there are no unaffiliated slots.

I don't know where things are on the numbers game but this is theoretically possible at the start of the season
 
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UCONNRPh said:
Joly move seems questionable
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AI is saying he has had 34 receptions for 565 yards, a 16.6 avg per catch and two touchdowns. Included are 4 catches for 66 yards and a TD against Stanford, and 4 receptions for 95 yards against Cal. My guess is that he is happy with that.
 
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