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Bowl math

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Awesome win yesterday.

Besides winning next week against Army what do we need to happen. Somebody do the math for me lol
 
DoctorWho85 said:
No. We have no tie-ins so the bowl can select a team they feel will "travel better" if they do choose.
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Yes and no. You can’t take a 6 win team without a pre-season contractual tie in if there are teams with 7 or more wins.
 
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BlueandOG said:
We are bowling. Period. Mora is a national figure, the turnaround is an amazing story, UCONN has a national reputation, our fans travel well, and the football fans will watch/travel and SPEND MONEY on a bowl game.
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BugsyCT said:
Since we're indy with no bowl tie-ins, nothing is automatic, but 7 wins makes our chances way better than 6.
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Both of these things are true.
 
I ran the numbers and show them all below. Double checked my math against the various sites that are all listing 63 bowl eligible teams, including UConn. Here is what I am getting:

- There are 65 teams with at least 6 wins
- James Madison is ineligible
- Marshall has 6 wins, but two are against FCS opponents (you can only count one for bowl eligibility
- For the sake of argument we won't include UConn

- That leaves 62 teams with at least 6 wins and a spot locked up
- There are 82 bowl spots, so there are 20 spots remaining

Remaining Teams:

There are 21 five win teams, 18 four win teams, and 1 three win team (Army who has 3 left to play*).

That makes 39 teams other than UConn with at least 4 wins and two games left to play for those 20 spots.

There are four matchups of teams with at least 5 wins before the end of the year. That would guarantee at least 4 more spots gone.

This would make 16 spots left over for 35 other teams

We need 19 teams to fail.

Five Win Teams: Marshall, BYU, Texas Tech, Michigan State, Southern Miss, Rice, Middle TN, UAB, Memphis, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Buffalo, Bowling Green, Miami, App State, Georgia Southern, Florida Atlantic, Utah State, Arkansas, Ball State

Four Win Teams: New Mexico State, Kent State, West Virginia, Miami (OH), Vanderbilt, LA Monroe, Georgia Tech, Georgia State, UTEP, Rutgers, Missouri, Auburn, Central Michigan, Florida International, UNLV, Iowa State, Arizona, Army

*Note on Army - including them but two of their wins are against FCS so they may already by ineligible
 
Heartland said:
There are four matchups of teams with at least 5 wins before the end of the year. That would guarantee at least 4 more spots gone.

Five Win Teams: Marshall, BYU, Texas Tech, Michigan State, Southern Miss, Rice, Middle TN, UAB, Memphis, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Buffalo, Bowling Green, Miami, App State, Georgia Southern, Florida Atlantic, Utah State, Arkansas, Ball State

Four Win Teams: New Mexico State, Kent State, West Virginia, Miami (OH), Vanderbilt, LA Monroe, Georgia Tech, Georgia State, UTEP, Rutgers, Missouri, Auburn, Central Michigan, Florida International, UNLV, Iowa State, Arizona, Army

*Note on Army - including them but two of their wins are against FCS so they may already by ineligible
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I started to do a similar analysis but it is still too early and too many combinations. For example the losers of the 5 win team match ups could still win their next game and thus all the teams could still be eligible. However, New Mexico State is playing Missouri this weekend. Both have 4 wins and so, one of these teams will definitely be eliminated. We know that.

For now, we route against the 4 and 5 win teams and see where we stand next Sunday. The math will be much easier next week.

eta - there has been discussion about Army having some kind of exception for beating 2 FCS teams. I could not find anything referencing that. I checked their fan board and after their loss to Troy, they are not considering themselves still in the hunt to be be “bowl eligible” but they are still hoping they can get a bid with 5 wins as that does happen sometimes with not enough .500 teams.
 
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RSTuthill said:
In the middle of December when they only drew 15K to the Rent during 70 degree weather? May I respectfully suggest not likely? 7.5K would be a lot closer to reality and that might be too high
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To be fair, the forecast all week for the game was a chilly rainy and windy
 
Dream Jobbed 2.0 said:
To be fair, the forecast all week for the game was a chilly rainy and windy
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Yup, in full unobstructed view of the forecast. I had ordered up up sleet and freezing rain, remember? I was keeping a weather eye on Mother Nature who defied me. And then I was kicking myself (figuratively) for having poor judgement in timing the knee replacement so I couldn't get to the Rent. All of which is not to say I wouldn't love to go to Fenway for that game. I am a veteran of more than a decade of watching UConn Hockey under the Eero Saarinen roof.
 
RSTuthill said:
In the middle of December when they only drew 15K to the Rent during 70 degree weather? May I respectfully suggest not likely? 7.5K would be a lot closer to reality and that might be too high
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To be fair, the forecast all week for the game was a chilly day
 
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Dream Jobbed 2.0 said:
To be fair, the forecast all week for the game was a chilly rainy and windy
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This is not true, but you and apparently thousands of others were under this impression. Since last Tuesday, the forecast called for rain ending in the morning and partly cloudy 70° conditions by kickoff. That forecast never changed between Tuesday and game time.

I assume most people just saw the multiday forecast with a raincloud icon shown for Saturday and assumed rain all day. I can't say I blame anyone who made such an assumption, but the fact remains that the forecast, for anyone who cared to/happened to see the details, called for great weather at game time since Tuesday.
 
“Not guaranteed but UConn should make bowl cut.”




… and he flipped his comment from the other day regarding adding bowls:

-> The good news, however, is it appears there will not be more than 81 teams that are bowl eligible, so there will be room for the Huskies. No teams with less than six wins may be selected until all bowl-eligible teams are taken, meaning the Huskies should end the nation’s seventh-longest bowl drought.

Even if more than 82 teams reach six wins, sources told Action Network that ESPN would create an additional bowl, allowing all bowl-eligible teams to play in the postseason. ESPN did the same thing last year, creating the Frisco Football Classic.<-

Wonder if the Gov made a call to Bristol? ;)
 
RSTuthill said:
In the middle of December when they only drew 15K to the Rent during 70 degree weather? May I respectfully suggest not likely? 7.5K would be a lot closer to reality and that might be too high
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You could be right but maybe not because of the weather. After I posted 20k at Fenway, I wondered about the seating at Fenway for a football game. Anyone have prior experience at going to a football game at Fenway?
 
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