Bowl math

[PlayItLeo]

CBS currently projects us playing Southern Miss on 12/17 in the LendingTree Bowl in Mobile, AL. Not sure if these projections are worth anything at this point, however.

2025 College Football Bowl Predictions - NCAA Bowl Game Projections

CBS Sports bowl experts select the teams they believe will make the National Semifinals at the end of the season, along with projections for each game.

www.cbssports.com

 

[aburks41]

CBS currently projects us playing Southern Miss on 12/17 in the LendingTree Bowl in Mobile, AL. Not sure if these projections are worth anything at this point, however.

2025 College Football Bowl Predictions - NCAA Bowl Game Projections

CBS Sports bowl experts select the teams they believe will make the National Semifinals at the end of the season, along with projections for each game.

www.cbssports.com

If what people have said is true - that ESPN can "trade" bowl games because they own the media rights - then it might make more sense for them to send Memphis there instead, and then we play Pitt in the Fenway Bowl.

How many Memphis fans are going to travel to cold Boston in the middle of December? 5? Send them to Mobile, Alabama instead

 

[LoyalFanCT]

It not gonna happen. Its one of the AAC/ACC guarantee games. And they both have more than enough teams. I wish I was wrong…but I don’t think I am

the aac teams want it but do the acc teams with six or more wins want to go to a kind of unknown bowl game

 

[huskymedic]

Army has 3 games left - vs us, UMass and Navy so they can still get to 6 wins. We can prevent that on Saturday

… but 2 of their current 3 wins are against FCS teams (Colgate & Villanova). Unless they received some special NCAA waiver - historically they can only count one of the two FCS wins towards bowl eligibility.

Army Bowl agreement w/ ESPN - “Provided that Army gains bowl eligibility in each season, the schedule for each year from 2020-2025 will be:

2020: Independence Bowl
2021: ESPN Owned and Operated Bowl Game
2022: Independence Bowl
2023: ESPN Owned and Operated Bowl Game
2024: Independence Bowl
2025: ESPN Owned and Operated Bowl Game”

 

[Huskydog45]

How much does ranking have to do with going to a bowl? Yahoo has UConn at 70 after yesterdays win.

 

[Patman]

How much does ranking have to do with going to a bowl? Yahoo has UConn at 70 after yesterdays win.

Not much. It is about money at the end of the day. Right now we're everybody's favorite and having us at 70 is a very very kind view of the world. Liberty was massively overrated and I believed this going into the game.

 

[Sea Goat]

There are 41 bowls this year not counting the title game.

63 teams other than UConn have clinched bowl eligibility.

There are 43 other teams that have not clinched bowl eligibility but have a chance to finish with at least six wins.

There are 19 slots left.

We need 25 teams to fall short.

Are you an actuary?

 

[storrsroars]

Army has 3 games left - vs us, UMass and Navy so they can still get to 6 wins. We can prevent that on Saturday

@Dizzy21 's point was that you can't have more than one win vs an FCS opponent count toward bowl eligibility. Army has two and at best can only get to 6 wins, thus ineligible. (sorry @huskymedic, didn't see your post till after I posted this).

App St also has two, but they're 5-5, so they can get to seven wins to get to a bowl and they'd need only one FCS win for six wins.

 

[PAGS]

the aac teams want it but do the acc teams with six or more wins want to go to a kind of unknown bowl game

It’s one of 9 top tier ACC bowls. They currently have 9 eligible teams. Someone has to take it!

 

[shizzle787]

Are you an actuary?

At one point at UConn I studied to be one, but no.

 

[storrsroars]

It’s one of 9 top tier ACC bowls. They currently have 9 eligible teams. Someone has to take it!

 

[NorwalkHusky]

Awesome win yesterday.

Besides winning next week against Army what do we need to happen. Somebody do the math for me lol

 

[BugsyCT]

We need a lot of 5-win teams to lose next week.

 

[businesslawyer]

We’re probably fine already. But if you don’t want to spend two weeks worrying about it after our regular season ends, root for us to win or teams chasing bowl eligibility not getting there.

 

[DoctorWho85]

Does winning 7 make it automatic?

No. We have no tie-ins so the bowl can select a team they feel will "travel better" if they do choose.

 

[businesslawyer]

No. We have no tie-ins so the bowl can select a team they feel will "travel better" if they do choose.

Yes and no. You can’t take a 6 win team without a pre-season contractual tie in if there are teams with 7 or more wins.

 

[Stinger92860]

Are we bowl eligible? YES. Are we going bowling? TBD

Is this accurate?

 

[businesslawyer]

Are we bowl eligible? YES. Are we going bowling? TBD

Is this accurate?

Yes

 

[MilliniumPrince]

Are we bowl eligible? YES. Are we going bowling? TBD

Is this accurate?

Yes

 

[huskymedic]

Alternate access link here <<

 

[CONN78SEJ]

Fenway is a possibility too, and we would be the regional team

I can see 20,000 UConn fans at Fenway.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

Yes

And TBD.

 

[SubbaBub]

We are bowling. Period. Mora is a national figure, the turnaround is an amazing story, UCONN has a national reputation, our fans travel well, and the football fans will watch/travel and SPEND MONEY on a bowl game.

Since we're indy with no bowl tie-ins, nothing is automatic, but 7 wins makes our chances way better than 6.

Both of these things are true.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

If we got the Fenway bowl we would easily bring 20k. There are thousands of us in Boston already and it’s a very easy drive from CT

There was probably 12000 for the Fenway game a couple years ago

 

[Heartland]

I ran the numbers and show them all below. Double checked my math against the various sites that are all listing 63 bowl eligible teams, including UConn. Here is what I am getting:

- There are 65 teams with at least 6 wins
- James Madison is ineligible
- Marshall has 6 wins, but two are against FCS opponents (you can only count one for bowl eligibility
- For the sake of argument we won't include UConn

- That leaves 62 teams with at least 6 wins and a spot locked up
- There are 82 bowl spots, so there are 20 spots remaining

Remaining Teams:

There are 21 five win teams, 18 four win teams, and 1 three win team (Army who has 3 left to play*).

That makes 39 teams other than UConn with at least 4 wins and two games left to play for those 20 spots.

There are four matchups of teams with at least 5 wins before the end of the year. That would guarantee at least 4 more spots gone.

This would make 16 spots left over for 35 other teams

We need 19 teams to fail.

Five Win Teams: Marshall, BYU, Texas Tech, Michigan State, Southern Miss, Rice, Middle TN, UAB, Memphis, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Buffalo, Bowling Green, Miami, App State, Georgia Southern, Florida Atlantic, Utah State, Arkansas, Ball State

Four Win Teams: New Mexico State, Kent State, West Virginia, Miami (OH), Vanderbilt, LA Monroe, Georgia Tech, Georgia State, UTEP, Rutgers, Missouri, Auburn, Central Michigan, Florida International, UNLV, Iowa State, Arizona, Army

*Note on Army - including them but two of their wins are against FCS so they may already by ineligible