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Bowl math

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shizzle787

shizzle787

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There are 41 bowls this year not counting the title game.

63 teams other than UConn have clinched bowl eligibility.

There are 43 other teams that have not clinched bowl eligibility but have a chance to finish with at least six wins.

There are 19 slots left.

We need 25 teams to fall short.
 
Ill Be Back Jim Carrey GIF
 
(Saw this on UConn FB Fans' Facebook page) -

According to Draft Kings the bowl games UConn is eligible for:

Cure: December 16, Orlando, FL
LendingTree: December 17, Mobile, AL
Frisco: December 17, Frisco, TX
Myrtle Beach: December 19, Myrtle Beach, SC
Boca Raton: December 20, Boca Raton, FL
Armed Forces: December 22, Fort Worth, TX
Gasparilla: December 23, Tampa, FL
Camellia: December 27, Montgomery, AL
First Responder: December 27, Dallas, TX
Birmingham: December 27, Birmingham, AL
 
So I did my projections by league (# of teams I think will be bowl eligible):
AAC (7)
ACC (9)
Big 12 (8)
B1G (10)
C-USA (5)
Indies (3)
MAC (5)
MW (7)
Pac-12 (7)
SEC (10)
Sun Belt (9)

Bid not including UConn: 82

As of right now, I would rate our chances of going bowling at around 45%. Army is a must win.
 
shizzle787 said:
So I did my projections by league (# of teams I think will be bowl eligible):
AAC (7)
ACC (9)
Big 12 (8)
B1G (10)
C-USA (5)
Indies (3)
MAC (5)
MW (7)
Pac-12 (7)
SEC (10)
Sun Belt (9)

Bid not including UConn: 82

As of right now, I would rate our chances of going bowling at around 45%. Army is a must win.
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Plus BYU, ND, and Liberty
 
shizzle787 said:
So I did my projections by league (# of teams I think will be bowl eligible):
AAC (7)
ACC (9)
Big 12 (8)
B1G (10)
C-USA (5)
Indies (3)
MAC (5)
MW (7)
Pac-12 (7)
SEC (10)
Sun Belt (9)

Bid not including UConn: 82

As of right now, I would rate our chances of going bowling at around 45%. Army is a must win.
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I did my math wrong: it's 80 bids I have added up. I think we are going bowling.
 
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shizzle787 said:
I did my math wrong: it's 80 bids I have added up. I think we are going bowling.
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Well according to you there will be 82 bids and 80 teams eligible not including UConn. So if you are accurate on who will be eligible, looks like UConn is well positioned. Agree that a 7-5 record would make them more attractive though.
 
RSTuthill said:
Well according to you there will be 82 bids and 80 teams eligible not including UConn. So if you are accurate on who will be eligible, looks like UConn is well positioned. Agree that a 7-5 record would make them more attractive though.
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It's a projection so we will see. The MAC, Sun Belt, and C-USA are where we need to keep our focus as that's where our bid will be kept or lost.
 
Isn't it more about bowl ties? If a conference has 4 bowl ties, but only 3 programs are eligible, then that bowl can seek a team that would be a good fit, not necessarily a power 5. . Thoughts?
 
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B1GEast said:
Isn't it more about bowl ties? If a conference has 4 bowl ties, but only 3 programs are eligible, then that bowl can seek a team that would be a good fit, not necessarily a power 5. I'm thinking the AAC . Thoughts?
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Yes. That has everything to do with it. However, a P5 is always going to get in over a G5.
 
First Responder: December 27, Dallas, TX - This would be ok with me, day after my birthday.
 
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shizzle787 said:
So I did my projections by league (# of teams I think will be bowl eligible):
AAC (7)
ACC (9)
Big 12 (8)
B1G (10)
C-USA (5)
Indies (3)
MAC (5)
MW (7)
Pac-12 (7)
SEC (10)
Sun Belt (9)

Bid not including UConn: 82

As of right now, I would rate our chances of going bowling at around 45%. Army is a must win.
Expand ...
They aren't keeping UConn out of a bowl, it's one of the best stories in the country.
 
I did a quick but hopefully accurate nose count of reams that need to win 1, 2, or 3 games to get to six wins. Some almost certainly won't make it based on who they play. Total of 36 teams. Clearly, the games need to be played to see how the dust settles....

Need 1 win (18 teams): Miami (FL), Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Sparty, Wisconsin, Rice, MTSU, FAU, UAB, BYU, Ball State, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Utah State, Arkansas, GA Southern, App State, Southern Miss.

Need to win 2 (17 teams): Georgia Tech, West Virginia, Iowa State, Rutgers, UTEP, FIU, New Mexico State, Central Michigan, Miami (FL), Kent State, UNLV, Arizona, Auburn, Missouri, Vanderbilt, GA Southern, LA -Monroe.

Need to win 3 (1 team): Army.

Commence the voodoo magic!
 
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CTFAN4LIFE said:
I did a quick but hopefully accurate nose count of reams that need to win 1, 2, or 3 games to get to six wins. Some almost certainly won't make it based on who they play. Total of 36 teams. Clearly, the games need to be played to see how the dust settles....

Need 1 win (18 teams): Miami (FL), Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Sparty, Wisconsin, Rice, MTSU, FAU, UAB, BYU, Ball State, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Utah State, Arkansas, GA Southern, App State, Southern Miss.

Need to win 2 (17 teams): Georgia Tech, West Virginia, Iowa State, Rutgers, UTEP, FIU, New Mexico State, Central Michigan, Miami (FL), Kent State, UNLV, Arizona, Auburn, Missouri, Vanderbilt, GA Southern, LA -Monroe.

Need to win 3 (1 team): Army.

Commence the voodoo magic!
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Army beat 2 FCS teams but only one of those wins counts towards bowl eligibility, meaning they have a max of 5 wins
 
Anyone have an idea of what another win could mean for a possible bowl invite? Does it make an invite more likely?
 
NE Football said:
Whatever bowl we need to bring 20,000 fans to get noticed.
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That ain't happening. For any of the bowls UConn is being looked at, 5k-7k fans will be a lot.

Outside of the CFB playoff games there are only another 6-8 bowls where fans travel en masses. This isn't the 1990's any more.

I'd be ecstatic if UConn brought 20k fans to a bowl game this season, and it would he great for the school's reputation but I don't see that happening here.
 
Chin Diesel said:
That ain't happening. For any of the bowls UConn is being looked at, 5k-7k fans will be a lot.

Outside of the CFB playoff games there are only another 6-8 bowls where fans travel en masses. This isn't the 1990's any more.

I'd be ecstatic if UConn brought 20k fans to a bowl game this season, and it would he great for the school's reputation but I don't see that happening here.
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I talked to my contact in the AD yesterday at the game and was told that based on the email they sent out last week asking for a non binding commitment to buy tix to any bowl game (to use or donate) they were over 4K. I think they will be sending out another email after this win or after the Army game - getting over 5K will not be a problem and hoping to get significantly over that - between 7500 and 10k would be a no brainer. What a game and what a fun season!
 
Vuce said:
I talked to my contact in the AD yesterday at the game and was told that based on the email they sent out last week asking for a non binding commitment to buy tix to any bowl game (to use or donate) they were over 4K. I think they will be sending out another email after this win or after the Army game - getting over 5K will not be a problem and hoping to get significantly over that - between 7500 and 10k would be a no brainer. What a game and what a fun season!
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This is a much more realistic goal. 20,000 would be great. But we only had 15 against ranked Liberty yesterday. I can’t image 20,000 willing to travel over the holidays to see a lesser bowl against a Wyoming or similar team.

And I say this fully expecting to go myself!
 
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